Essential Research leadership ratings and preselection latest

A second pollster suggests Scott Morrison’s recent slump to have been short-lived, as Eric Abetz gets dumped from his customary position at the top of the Tasmanian Liberal Senate ticket.

First up, note two posts below this one dealing with ongoing electoral events: the resolution to the Tasmanian election count and the New South Wales state by-election for Upper Hunter on Saturday week.

The Guardian today reports on the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, which includes the monthly leadership ratings. As was the case with Newspoll, this finds Scott Morrison pulling out of the slump that followed the Brittany Higgins and Christian Porter episodes, with his approval up four to 58% and disapproval to five to 32%, without quite restoring him to the respective 62% and 29% he recorded in the March poll. The recovery has been particularly pronounced with women, among whom he is up nine points on approval to 55% and down eight on disapproval to 34%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 47-28 to 50-24; Anthony Albanese’s ratings are said to be “constant compared to his standing last month”, when he had 39% approval and 34% disapproval.

The poll also finds 48% support and 27% opposition for the India travel ban, with 41% supporting jail time and fines and 33% opposed. However, 56% said they would support allowing citizens to return “provided they complete the necessary quarantine procedures when they arrive”, with 22% opposed. There was also a suite of questions on budget priorities that are probably better saved for the full poll release, which should be along later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. Albanese turns out to be steady on 39% approval and up one on disapproval to 35%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1092.

Some notable preselection action to report:

• The Tasmanian Liberal Senate preselection has seen Eric Abetz, long the dominant figure in the state branch, dumped to the loseable number three position behind fellow incumbents Jonathon Duniam and Wendy Askew. A source quoted by Sue Bailey of The Mercury said Abetz won the first round of the ballot for top position with 29 votes to Duniam’s 26 and Askew’s 12, before Duniam prevailed on the second round with 36 votes to Abetz’s 31. Askew then defeated Abetz in the ballot for second position by 37 votes to 30.

• Labor’s preselection for the new seat of Hawke on Melbourne’s north-western fringe is in limbo after the Victorian Supreme Court ruled a challenge by ten unions against the federal party organisation’s takeover of the process should proceed to a trial on May 26. This complicates former state secretary Sam Rae’s bid for the seat, which was set to be signed off on by the national executive under the terms of a deal reached between elements of the Left and Right, with Rae being a member of the latter. The Age reports Rae “will be challenged by Maribyrnong councillor Sarah Carter and former Melton council candidate Deepti Alurkar” – I’m not sure where this leaves state government minister Natalie Hutchins, earlier identified as Rae’s chief rival. Hutchins is an ally of Bill Shorten and the Australian Workers Union, who have been frozen out of the aforesaid factional deal.

• Barnaby Joyce has easily seen off a challenge for the Nationals preselection in New England from Tenterfield army officer Alex Rubin, whom he defeated in the local members’ ballot by 112 votes to 12.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,861 comments on “Essential Research leadership ratings and preselection latest”

Comments Page 2 of 58
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  3. What a fantastic metaphor for this gov.

    Amy Remeikis
    @AmyRemeikis
    ·
    3m
    There’s a pallet of fake money in the Mural Hall of parliament.
    Happy budget day

  4. C@

    Our puppies sold for a lot more than we were originally expecting, so we donated to UNHCR and the local wildlife service.

  5. zoomster @ #53 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 8:53 am

    C@

    Our puppies sold for a lot more than we were originally expecting, so we donated to UNHCR and the local wildlife service.

    Bravo! 🙂

    Maybe we might shame Taylormade into doing something similar with his pandemic cash? Wouldn’t it also be great if Josh Frydenburg suggested similar philanthropy with the billions people apparently stashed away during the pandemic?

  7. Josh Butler @JoshButler

    I’m pleased to inform you that Craig Kelly has planned a #budget2021 stunt with a comical pile of fake money pic.twitter.com/xtrmcfT53J

  8. It was a bit of shock to see poroti is off for the chop today; a well guarded secret that one. I totally agree with Shellbell.

    All the best, she’ll be right mate, and all that, and as the sage of PB warned, be nice to the nurses, an unnecessary warning no doubt. It reminds me hearing my dear friend and lady anaesthetist, the daughter of a Newcastle bookie, and as straight a shooter as ever made, calmly telling the carrying on about anything and everything lady in the next bed in day -surgery that “I wouldn’t upset the anaesthetist before the operation, if I were you, Madam!”

  9. Josh Butler
    @JoshButler
    ·
    7m

    oh jeeze I just realised he’s put Ned Kelly on the fake notes, this is so rich and multi-layered

  13. Now there’s a guy with too much money who needs to donate it towards better things.

    Did he use his parliamentary printing allowance?

  14. Good question.

    Christine Phillips
    @cscviews
    ·
    20h
    Anyone of the media pack game enough to ask #SaintGladys why her gold standard tracing team are consistently unable to identify patient zero; and does she need help with that? #Covid19NSW #auspol

    Spray, Oakeshott Country, thoughts? 😐

  16. U.S. COVID update:

    – New cases: 33,744 …………………………. – New deaths: 341

    – In hospital: 33,849 (-609)
    – In ICU: 9,068 (-129)

    596,137 total deaths now

    ( England reports 0 new coronavirus deaths for the first time in more than a year

    India reports 366,317 new coronavirus cases and 3,747 new deaths )

  17. Tanya Plibersek
    @tanya_plibersek

    Tonight’s Budget will be all about fixing political problems of the Liberal Party’s own making.

    It’ll be a MorrisonKeeper Budget.

    😀

  21. C@tmomma @ #64 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 9:09 am

    Good question.

    Christine Phillips
    @cscviews
    ·
    20h
    Anyone of the media pack game enough to ask #SaintGladys why her gold standard tracing team are consistently unable to identify patient zero; and does she need help with that? #Covid19NSW #auspol

    Spray, Oakeshott Country, thoughts? 😐

    Meow.

  23. Just to repeat myself, I like that Labor are on the front foot with getting bullshit alerts implanted in punter’s minds.

  25. https://www.newyorker.com/news/on-religion/a-pennsylvania-lawmaker-and-the-resurgence-of-christian-nationalism?utm_source=nl&utm_brand=tny&utm_mailing=TNY_Daily_050921&utm_campaign=aud-dev&utm_medium=email&bxid=5be9e08e3f92a40469f1fe08&cndid=53921499&hasha=878aa37d27bc0dac8a63353688d53e7c&hashb=2603ca747b10f9e96c8c561d7479afa85f43e338&hashc=7c94898518c5d3bfc8423b5c3b17687e4a585f68bfbb9ca043c0c8397f23da20&esrc=Auto_Subs&utm_term=TNY_Daily

    A Pennsylvania Lawmaker and the Resurgence of Christian Nationalism
    How Doug Mastriano’s rise embodies the spread of a movement centered on the belief that God intended America to be a Christian nation.

  26. I’m old enough to remember budget leaks.
    Beer, smokes, petrol up.
    That type of thing.
    Then we had the whole budget leaked to Laurie Oakes.
    Now it’s a full on week-long media event.
    I couldn’t watch the speech tonight in a fit.
    And I don’t need too.
    Most of it is already out there.

  27. Budget, Smudget!
    Here’s today’s global cartoons!

    From the UK:






    Canada:

    India:











    New Zealand:

    Netherlands:




    Thailand:

    France:

    Daily XKCD – reckon I’ll put these up on a daily basis – available @xkcdComic:





  29. By sticking with Trump, the good Christians, can use (and are using) the ‘excuse’ of the Election Fraud Lie to further demolish legitimacy at the ballot box, further suppress voting, and continue to trash their cherished ‘democracy’.

  31. MFW
    @MFWitches
    ·
    1h
    They’re such outrageous liars they’ll even lie about a f###ing TREE.


    Simon Rosenberg
    @simon_rosenberg
    ·
    1h
    The tree on the left is the announcement.
    The tree on the right is the delivery. #Budget21 #auspol

  32. Confessions, auction houses are probably the best way to clear out the house. You get what you get on the day. ‘Antiques’ don’t have they market they once enjoyed I suspect.

  34. @naveenjrazik
    ·
    9m
    Craig Kelly admits the cost of this stunt was about $1000, printed from his communications allowance, meaning taxpayers paid for these fake notes #auspol

    Apparently it’s supposed to represent government debt. I think he’s missed the memo.

  35. @benleemusic tweets

    Hi I’m in Australia and saw a specialist this morning, gave them my Medicare card and by 9pm the rebate showed up in my bank account oooh socialized medicine is terrifying I have no freedom please help me

    And I wrote this tweet last night and forget to hit tweet so I’m worse at Twitter than Medicare is at giving rebates so terrifying

  39. Lizzie

    Kelly doesn’t have to change ideology. He is not part of the government now.

    It’s a good reminder how silly it is to compare household debt to government budgets.

  41. @kezincanberra tweets

    Labor will not change its leader prior to the election. We either get behind Albo & Labor fully. Now. Or continue grumblings abt personality & whatever – that will sabotage any chance of kicking this current mob out. Decent, honest, government is what we need. Don’t ruin this.

    _____________________

    I think if Labor does assume it has to be heard through advertising spending as guaranteed airtime Labor will win.
    Even Murdoch’s press will accept Labor election advertising .

    I don’t care who the leader is. If you cannot get airtime you could be Jesus Christ and lose the election.

  42. A reminder about the average punter

    @Paul_Karp tweets

    A bit concerned I was just served by a bank teller who didnt know what the federal budget was even after I explained it to him.
    “Hello, yes, I’d like to withdraw all my money and stuff it under my mattress please”

    ______________________________

    @noplaceforsheep tweets

    “Voters don’t like toxic politics”
    And yet, here we are, with the most toxic govt in our history entering its 9th year, with two of the most toxic men in our country’s political history leading it.
    Maybe time to rethink what voters like & why?

  43. rhwombat @ #71 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 9:27 am

    C@tmomma @ #64 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 9:09 am

    Good question.

    Christine Phillips
    @cscviews
    ·
    20h
    Anyone of the media pack game enough to ask #SaintGladys why her gold standard tracing team are consistently unable to identify patient zero; and does she need help with that? #Covid19NSW #auspol

    Spray, Oakeshott Country, thoughts? 😐

    Meow.

    WTF? Why on earth would this be directed to me? Mistaken identity I presume.

  44. “The poll also finds 48% support and 27% opposition for the India travel ban, with 41% supporting jail time and fines and 33% opposed. ”

    I wonder what the result would have been had the policy been implemented for US, UK and Europe?

  45. “The Tasmanian Liberal Senate preselection has seen Eric Abetz, long the dominant figure in the state branch, dumped to the loseable number three position behind fellow incumbents Jonathon Duniam and Wendy Askew. ”

    Nice

  46. Labor will not change its leader prior to the election. We either get behind Albo & Labor fully. Now. Or continue grumblings abt personality & whatever – that will sabotage any chance of kicking this current mob out. Decent, honest, government is what we need.

    Sure, but the crooks have been in power for donkeys and the head chook of the crooks is as popular as lollies. So either peeps dont give a rats about decent honest government or the message isnt getting out. Yet.

  48. @climatecouncil tweets

    The @CityofSydney will bring forward its net-zero emissions goal by five years to 2035, making it the first council in NSW to set such an early target.

    @p_hannam @smh

  49. “guytaursays:
    Tuesday, May 11, 2021 at 10:03 am
    @noplaceforsheep tweets

    “Voters don’t like toxic politics”
    And yet, here we are, with the most toxic govt in our history entering its 9th year, with two of the most toxic men in our country’s political history leading it.
    Maybe time to rethink what voters like & why?”

    Did you realise that now?

  50. Simon Katich @ #95 Tuesday, May 11th, 2021 – 10:14 am

    Labor will not change its leader prior to the election. We either get behind Albo & Labor fully. Now. Or continue grumblings abt personality & whatever – that will sabotage any chance of kicking this current mob out. Decent, honest, government is what we need.

    Sure, but the crooks have been in power for donkeys and the head chook of the crooks is as popular as lollies. So either peeps dont give a rats about decent honest government or the message isnt getting out. Yet.

    Please read this to understand the situation as it applies to both Morrison and Johnson:
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/10/retail-politics-movements-polarising-projects-promise

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