Before proceeding with the latest preselection news, I have a still-active post with daily updates on the progress of Tasmanian state election count; a live results feature that I can’t promote often enough, since it remains by some distance the most detailed source of results data available; and a lengthy plea for cash from Friday from which I’m still vaguely hopeful of squeezing another donation or two.
On with the show:
• The long-awaited Liberal National Party Senate preselection has allocated top position on the Queensland ticket to James McGrath while relegating Amanda Stoker to third, maintaining an impressive bipartisan run of preselectors never getting anything right. Michael McKenna of The Australian relates that McGrath secured a sweeping 212-101 win from the “biggest ever turnout for a State Council Senate vote”. The second position is designated to the Nationals, and is duly a lock for Matt Canavan.
• Paul Starick of The Advertiser reports that Leah Blyth, who has the backing of the South Australian Liberal Party’s conservative faction to replace the retiring Nicolle Flint in the Adelaide seat of Boothby, may be poleaxed by the Section 44 of the Constitution. Blyth’s efforts to renounce a dual British citizenship even this far out from the election could fall foul of extended processing times arising from COVID-19, although others quoted in the report express doubt that it will really be a problem. Rival contenders include Rachel Swift, moderate-aligned proprietor of a health consultancy firm, and Shaun Osborn, a police officer who ran in the seat of Adelaide in 2019. However, Osborn is hampered by the optics of putting a man forward to replace Flint, whose experiences have been a key element in Liberal efforts to parry suggestions that disrespect for women is particularly a problem on their own side of politics.
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports dissension within Victorian Labor over the likelihood that former state secretary Sam Rae will secure preselection for the new seat of Hawke on Melbourne’s north-western fringe. The report says a draft preselection agreement reserves the seat for the Right faction Transport Workers Union, which remains associated with party powerbroker and former Senator Stephen Conroy. While Conroy evidently backs Rae, “other parts” of the Right are said to favour the position going to a woman, specifically Natalie Hutchins, the Andrews government Corrections Minister and member for the seat of Sydenham.
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reported last week that “wholesale ALP federal intervention” loomed for the party’s Tasmanian branch, “barring a shock win for the party” at Saturday’s state election – which, for those of you who have just joined us, didn’t happen. The concern is that Left unions use their excessive weight within the branch’s affairs to do foolish things like deny preselection to Dean Winter, who was able to achieve his thumping win in Franklin on Saturday only because the national executive intervened to give him a place on the ticket. This would appear to be relevant to Labor’s preselections for the federal seat of Bass and Braddon, which it lost at the 2019 election, and also to the fate of twice-defeated state leader Rebecca White. The aforesaid Left unions are apparently keen on replacing her with David O’Byrne, who was outpolled in Franklin on Saturday by the aforesaid Dean Winter.
• The Liberal Party has done tellingly extensive research for its submission opposing the registration of a party under the name New Liberals, which included CT Group polling indicating that 69% of respondents believed a party thus named sounded like it had a connection with the other Liberal Party.
For environmental advocates.
Western men having zero sperm count by 2045 and shrinking penises may help in campaigning
TLDR
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oILTOL7L0sU
lizzie
His manly man hands on hips pose also tends to show off his huge success at avoiding anorexia 🙂
Speaking of Michelle Landry and her ex-staffer and the other Liberal wankers, I note that nothing other than the loss of job for one of them has occurred but I reckon he’s landed on his feet near another Liberal MP’s desk, if you were to be able to look closely for him.
Alpha Zero
No, it was at the head of the Guardian’s live blog for the day.
guytaur @ #651 Tuesday, May 4th, 2021 – 3:56 pm
Doesn’t apply to my male progeny. So I am proudly told by them.
lizzie @ #654 Tuesday, May 4th, 2021 – 3:58 pm
The Guardian are notoriously able to not have their photos copied elsewhere for some reason.
Theo Andelini:
“Often” seems incredibly strong language given that we’ve had exactly one ordinary half-Senate election under the current rules, and preferences were critical in exactly none of these (all spots went to either whole quotas or the ‘largest remainders’). That’s not to say that they couldn’t be, but it’s hardly strong evidence for “often”!
Reminds me of when I was pre-teen and given “the talk” by my very nervous mother. I asked (I thought intelligently) “But how does the baby get inside the mother?”
We lived on a dairy farm.
Mother replied “Well, you’ve seen bulls and cows.” End of conversation.
The thought of a huge bill’s penis haunted me for years!!!
Josh Butler
@JoshButler
Morrison was asked about cricketer Michael Slater’s comments that the government had “blood on their hands”
Morrison says it’s “absurd”
“I’m not going to fail Australia”
After Morrison says it’s unlikely any Indian arrivals would be jailed, Labor’s Penny Wong responds on Radio National: “then why announce it?”
Wong claims the government was only after “a tough headline which has blown up in their face”
Penny Wong getting out the skewer and strategically inserting it.
The thought of a huge bill’s penis haunted me for years!!!
Well, they did say Bill Clinton came well-recommended. 😉
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/may/04/former-cricketer-michael-slater-says-scott-morrison-has-blood-on-his-hands-over-india-travel-ban
In the voice of Alan McGilvray: “Morrison moves in, a slow, ambling run to the wicket, and bowls a long hop which Slater hoists over the long on boundary for six!”
The Shovel
@TheShovel
We are calling on purpose-built quarantine facilities to be renamed ‘Australian War Memorials’ to ensure they get funded and built
Lynchpin @ #661 Tuesday, May 4th, 2021 – 4:05 pm
The good thing about Slater saying it is that it will get airtime on all the sports entertainment networks as well.
Being closer to the end than the beginning, I sometimes contemplate retirement activities.
This would be good I think …
https://youtu.be/pzkoTulqA1U
caf, and why did the largest remainder win? Because the next party below them (often One Nation in 2019) did not have a high enough primary vote, nor a high enough preference flow to overtake the party above them. If more people had voted for them and given them preferences, then they may have had a chance, but they did not. This means that how people allocated preferences did actually impact the result. The amount of preferences they received was not enough to overturn the result as too many preferences went away from them or exhausted. That is not the same thing as preferences not mattering at all.
Alpha Zero @ #648 Tuesday, May 4th, 2021 – 3:55 pm
And the punters lap it up. It ain’t about the cows.
Yes, good point Catmomma.
Do you get the impression that Morrison is no longer running political strategy or the cabinet, and that Dutton and Frydenberg have stepped in?
https://www.crikey.com.au/2021/05/04/inq-morrison-full-university-thesis/
Scott Morrison can’t hide Christian Porter away so easily:
https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/mystery-surrounds-how-christian-porters-defamation-case-against-abc-will-be-funded/news-story/6eadc98ee0084bf15b97fe7d223a2a2d
“C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 3:57 pm
Speaking of Michelle Landry and her ex-staffer and the other Liberal wankers, I note that nothing other than the loss of job for one of them has occurred but I reckon he’s landed on his feet near another Liberal MP’s desk, if you were to be able to look closely for him.”
So does the jerkoff still performs his old job? 🙂
Player One @ #642 Tuesday, May 4th, 2021 – 3:50 pm
Scrote will call an election this year. No question.
And, Labor will lose.
Again.
Ven @ #670 Tuesday, May 4th, 2021 – 4:15 pm
Which particular Liberal are you talking about? 🙂
mundo @ #671 Tuesday, May 4th, 2021 – 4:16 pm
Been consulting Blind Freddy again, mundo?
Lynchpin @ #667 Tuesday, May 4th, 2021 – 4:14 pm
I wouldn’t say that. Scott Morrison has been the progenitor of much of the philosophical direction and policies of the Coalition since they were in Opposition. He is firmly in control, albeit with Dutton and other Conservatives such as Hunt. Frydenburg is mounting a rearguard action for the Petro Georgiou wing of the Liberal Party.
Lynchpin @ #667 Tuesday, May 4th, 2021 – 4:14 pm
Do you get the impression that Albo is no longer running political strategy or the shadow cabinet like he believes he has a chance of winning?
Oh, hang on, I spoke too soon.
I think Albo just cut through….oh wait, no…sorry….ok, never mind…
lizzie @ #647 Tuesday, May 4th, 2021 – 3:54 pm
At the risk of being boring and/or tedious…
Edit is available with minimal effort ….simply by clicking on the C+ icon on the Toolbar and unticking the Override HTML Comments box and then refreshing the page. Don’t forget to hit “Save”.
Scroll down to your entry and you have the standard blog Edit/Delete process.
Reverse the process and Bob’s yer ……
Hit “Save” — Refresh your page again and you have C+ as before.
Its really very simple and works a treat.
Edit block to blog
I am not 100% on that. I mean he will call it when he thinks he has the best advantage but, barring a long-term forecast suggesting next year will be a minefield (possible considering we don’t know what will happen economically in the next 12 months), there are plenty of good arguments for just waiting until around the three year anniversary of the previous election (i.e. calling it for a Saturday in late April or May 2022.)
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 4:17 pm
Which particular Liberal are you talking about? ”
The jerkoff who has landed on his feet near another Liberal MP’s desk. 🙂
The Greens run a pref-harvesting racket. This is their SOP. It goes amiss when no-one prefs them. But that did not stop them directing support to the micro-stunt Legalise Cannabis in WA, which cost Labor seats.
The Greens can go jump. If they can win a quota under their own stream, all’s well. But they cannot complain if others, emulating well-known Green tactics, succeed at their expense.
The Greens are just another anti-Labor vuvuzela.
south @ #626 Tuesday, May 4th, 2021 – 3:21 pm
‘Albo has to land a killer budget reply and then IMHO it’s on. ‘
Albo’s had to do a lot of things but can’t quite get it right.
It’s never going to be ‘on’ with Albo.
Stop setting yourself up for even huger disappointment.
Just sit back, be calm. Watch the Spacex Youtube channel.
There’s more chance of Elon Musk getting to Mars than Albo finding his mojo.
I agree with Sprocket. Morrison will call the Election for Caulfield Cup Day. There will be Child care handouts that take effect on October 1. Frydenberg will announce tax cuts that well be effective at the same time. There will be a series of job creation announcements that will impress the media but will be effective some time in the future.
It will be an old time election fought on jobs, economic management and leadership.
Albo and Labor will win easily.
So that absolutely no one believes the absolute crap mundo spews out about federal Labor, here’s a media outlet reporting what federal Labor have been saying:
https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/rachel-withers/2021/04/2021/1620107666/morrison-backs-away
The article also suggests Morrison hasn’t been getting the uniform tummy rubs from the commercial morning shows either.
“C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 4:17 pm
Which particular Liberal are you talking about? ”
The one who has landed on his feet near another Liberal MP’s desk. 🙂
N,
They sound more like gazoos to me.
I think first quarter 2022 election most likely at this stage – allows for vaccination program to be done and economic recovery to be well underway. Avoid having a Budget and a campaign at the same time and the campaign sets the next Budget. Plenty of time for the ALP to change Leaders.
“They sound more like gazoos to me.”
The thundering sound of the Temple Church pipe organ, more like it!
Which can be heard at the start of this epic piece of music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMP930HrGqE
https://www.msnbc.com/katy-tur/watch/police-say-there-is-ongoing-security-incident-at-cia-headquarters-111265861724
A Fairfax police spokesman confirmed that there is an “ongoing security incident” at CIA headquarters in Langley, Va. Officials reported that an intruder approached the gate and tried to seek unauthorized access.
A month after Car attack at Capital Hill.
America never learns but still seek to blame other countries.
Bucephalus says:
Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 4:38 pm
More likely that LNP needs to change leaders if it wants to keep its votes.
Mr PreachCreepy.
The Smirk needs a good military metaphor re the Indian mutiny before his legendary tin ear kicks into gear. As one of my Viet Vet mates (very anti-RSL) opined, ‘image an officer giving a command to retreat while leaving behind several of our wounded lying in the field of battle. The officer would be court-martialled, stripped of his rank and thrown into the jug!’ What are the chances of the latter happening to The Smirk?
Makes ya think, yes? I just can’t believe he has jeapardised the votes of so many Indian-Australians. Hitherto, I would have categorise them as a conservative voting bloc.
mundosays:
Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 4:28 pm
“There’s more chance of Elon Musk getting to Mars than Albo finding his mojo.”
I thought that was his mojo along with crying over ALP Leadership spills.
Drongosays:
Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 4:43 pm
“I would have categorise them as a conservative voting bloc.”
Not in WA.
Ponderous and uninspiring drivel will never overwhelm the whiny sounds of the Greens littlest violinists playing their fiddle and preaching their nonsense.
Ven @ #682 Tuesday, May 4th, 2021 – 4:32 pm
Oh, I thought he was out of sight, out of mind. 😉
Interesting how mundo hasn’t congratulated Steven Miles on his slip of the tongue. If Scott Morrison had done something similar you wouldn’t have been able to shut mundo up.
This is the way forward.
Say NO to the parliamentary fossil fuel cartel candidates at the next election.
Theo Andelini:
This is just a truism – “the system takes into account preferences, therefore preferences always matter to the result”. It’s not particularly insightful or revelatory though.
Another perspective is that the reason the highest remainders won is that under this system, preferences are observed to scatter fairly uniformly outside candidate groups, which makes it difficult for one group to overtake another after preferences are distributed. That’s not to say such a thing is impossible or even unlikely – personally I think that under different primary vote shares where there are groups more closely placed at the beginning of the count it is actually quite likely to happen. This is a somewhat more useful perspective as it lets you weigh the importance of eg increasing primary vote versus trying to gain preferences.
Drongo,
Scotty will just channel LRB.
https://youtu.be/7tcutmdnFvk
Drongo @ #688 Tuesday, May 4th, 2021 – 4:43 pm
Morrison is the antithesis of a genuine leader.
He is just your standard suburban used car salesman in way over his head.
Talking to Liberal Party people they think the election will be next year because they are not as confident as they were a few months ago and Frydenberg wants two budgets.
The interview for my first real job lasted a minute. The director gave me a hammer and asked me to pretend I was using it. As I held it at the end of the handle I got the job.
This might have made sense were it carpentry. The boss was an odd chap.