Before proceeding with the latest preselection news, I have a still-active post with daily updates on the progress of Tasmanian state election count; a live results feature that I can’t promote often enough, since it remains by some distance the most detailed source of results data available; and a lengthy plea for cash from Friday from which I’m still vaguely hopeful of squeezing another donation or two.
On with the show:
• The long-awaited Liberal National Party Senate preselection has allocated top position on the Queensland ticket to James McGrath while relegating Amanda Stoker to third, maintaining an impressive bipartisan run of preselectors never getting anything right. Michael McKenna of The Australian relates that McGrath secured a sweeping 212-101 win from the “biggest ever turnout for a State Council Senate vote”. The second position is designated to the Nationals, and is duly a lock for Matt Canavan.
• Paul Starick of The Advertiser reports that Leah Blyth, who has the backing of the South Australian Liberal Party’s conservative faction to replace the retiring Nicolle Flint in the Adelaide seat of Boothby, may be poleaxed by the Section 44 of the Constitution. Blyth’s efforts to renounce a dual British citizenship even this far out from the election could fall foul of extended processing times arising from COVID-19, although others quoted in the report express doubt that it will really be a problem. Rival contenders include Rachel Swift, moderate-aligned proprietor of a health consultancy firm, and Shaun Osborn, a police officer who ran in the seat of Adelaide in 2019. However, Osborn is hampered by the optics of putting a man forward to replace Flint, whose experiences have been a key element in Liberal efforts to parry suggestions that disrespect for women is particularly a problem on their own side of politics.
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports dissension within Victorian Labor over the likelihood that former state secretary Sam Rae will secure preselection for the new seat of Hawke on Melbourne’s north-western fringe. The report says a draft preselection agreement reserves the seat for the Right faction Transport Workers Union, which remains associated with party powerbroker and former Senator Stephen Conroy. While Conroy evidently backs Rae, “other parts” of the Right are said to favour the position going to a woman, specifically Natalie Hutchins, the Andrews government Corrections Minister and member for the seat of Sydenham.
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reported last week that “wholesale ALP federal intervention” loomed for the party’s Tasmanian branch, “barring a shock win for the party” at Saturday’s state election – which, for those of you who have just joined us, didn’t happen. The concern is that Left unions use their excessive weight within the branch’s affairs to do foolish things like deny preselection to Dean Winter, who was able to achieve his thumping win in Franklin on Saturday only because the national executive intervened to give him a place on the ticket. This would appear to be relevant to Labor’s preselections for the federal seat of Bass and Braddon, which it lost at the 2019 election, and also to the fate of twice-defeated state leader Rebecca White. The aforesaid Left unions are apparently keen on replacing her with David O’Byrne, who was outpolled in Franklin on Saturday by the aforesaid Dean Winter.
• The Liberal Party has done tellingly extensive research for its submission opposing the registration of a party under the name New Liberals, which included CT Group polling indicating that 69% of respondents believed a party thus named sounded like it had a connection with the other Liberal Party.
C@tmomma @ #1600 Thursday, May 6th, 2021 – 9:37 pm
Oh we all knew it was coming. Doesn’t make it any easier.
Having worked in all NSW jails, Silverwater is as an OK one… It is the oldies like Bathurst, Grafton, Parramatta, (in its day) Goulburn that you want to avoid. The new ones, like Kempsey, Wellington and Nowra are lightweight and open with landscaping are nice. Newington House is in the centre of the Metropolitan Remand Centre opposite Silverwater, and is very pretty!
He was right C@tmomma
Bank shares worse than an ETF
Investors in three of Australia’s big four banks over the past five years would have been better off buying an exchange traded fund that replicated the performance of the S&P/ASX 200 index.
At the end of another interim bank profit reporting season, it is notable that, with one exception, it was a mistake to have spent the time and effort to put money in bank stocks in 2016 for the medium term.
This experience ought to make many retail investors rethink their approach to investment. Why go through the effort of buying separate shares when there is an extremely cost effective and higher-performing alternative?
The Commonwealth Bank of Australia was the only one of the big four to outperform the ASX 200 since 2016, according to Bloomberg data. It is a consistent outperformer, having beaten the index over one-, two-, three- and 10-year periods.
By the end of this year, the big four banks will have paid out about $7 billion in remediation expenses for a range of issues, including poor advice, overcharging of fees, and mis-sold insurance.
https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/bank-shares-worse-than-an-etf-20210506-p57piw
PS Make your own mind what “remediation” means.
dave says:
Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 9:12 pm
“China’s Emissions Now Exceed All the Developed World’s Combined
China now accounts for more greenhouse gas emissions than all of the world’s developed nations combined,”
…and the Warmies think China is going to change. I have a bridge to sell them.
In March Yansley posted that national polling was Labor 58 Coalition 42 so the trend is back to the Coalition. 🙂
dave @ #1599 Thursday, May 6th, 2021 – 9:35 pm
There is only one thing you should keep front of mind about Scott Morrison, what he said to Annabel Crabb:
“I’m purely transactional.”
So, of course he’s going to move heaven and earth to get Australians in India back to the country. You’ve just got to realise how much effort, and policy concessions have been made, to the Indian-Australian community to get them on the Liberal side of the ledger. That means that when he sees these people saying they won’t vote for the Liberals at the next election, that registers in his lizard brain.
Of course, Labor have been conducting a similar campaign. But we will never cast them aside simply to appeal to the White Males who are thinking of voting for Labor. Which is Morrison’s political focus. 🙂
davidwh @ #1606 Thursday, May 6th, 2021 – 9:42 pm
Michael Yabsley was probably the progenitor of ‘Black Ops. Yay!’ 😀
So, yes, I would say that the polling is probably the reverse.
Aqualung and Spray,
I’m blaming the injuries and the suspensions! 😀
dave says:
Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 9:41 pm
“Bank shares worse than an ETF”
That’s sort of a silly thing to write. There are lots of different ETF’s that have different underlying investments and hence performance.
Bucephalus @ #1605 Thursday, May 6th, 2021 – 9:41 pm
Are we seeing Bidens China version of Kennan’s long telegram Doctrine emerging ?
Following up on the group voting ticket in the senate earlier this week. Antony Green just posted this on twitter.
Interesting article.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-23/the-origin-of-senate-group-ticket-voting-and-it-didnt-come-from-/9388658?utm_source=abc_news_web&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_web
I’d like to know how the Storm keep appearing near the top of the table year in, year out when most premiership winners gradually slide down the table C@tmomma?
Great initiatives from the adults in the room:
* The City of Amsterdam banned adverts on its metro system promoting fossil fuel
products, including cheap flights and petrol cars (NL Times).
* France’s National Assembly approved a new climate bill that includes a ban on building or expanding airports
Australians too:
* A coalition of former fire and emergency chiefs have welcomed the establishment of the National Recovery and Resilience Agency, but warned federal inaction on climate undermined the body’s mission.
Greg Mullins, former commissioner of Fire and Rescue NSW and the founder of Emergency Leaders for Climate Action, said: “The government is undermining disaster recovery and relief and community resilience efforts through its refusal to realistically tackle greenhouse gas emissions, the root cause of worsening extreme weather.”
Fellow ELCA member Peter Dunn, former commissioner of the ACT Emergency Services Authority, added that the new Australian Climate Service turning to data to “improve adaptation efforts without reducing emissions to address climate change, won’t keep Australians safe”.
It’s obvious that Bucephalus and his fellow fossil fuel dinosaurs can’t see the meteor headed right for them. Too bad, so sad.
Aqualung @ #1613 Thursday, May 6th, 2021 – 10:00 pm
Their coach is the one constant factor in their years of victorious success. Craig Bellamy seems to be able to craft a team that will win even when the rules change.
He must also be a master of picking talent that will keep the team under the salary cap.
Aqualung a very good coach, excellent recruiting and a good retention history.
Aqualung,
Did you see this article on the Eastern Suburbs’ bus changes?
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/dozens-of-sydney-bus-services-cut-in-eastern-suburbs-transport-overhaul-20210506-p57pd7.html
“…and the Warmies think China is going to change. I have a bridge to sell them.”
On this we largely agree.
No argument about the coach C@tmomma and davidwh.
They must recruit the only league players in Australia that are not interested in money.
No one else, except maybe the roosters seem to be able to work that miracle. Even the Broncos eventually fell.
They get audited so it must all be above board.
Yes C@tmomma. Can’t wait for the customer feedback.
The point of the exercise is to funnel punters onto the light rail.
They held off on this because of covid. I don’t expect anything to change.
The Clovelly residents are the only ones with clout.
They’ve already softened them up. The 339 no longer goes to Gresham St.
The Broncos recruiting and retention has been hopeless for the past 8 years. Also they keep stuffing around with their coaches. There seems to be fundamental problems from the top down.
Re C@t @10:01.
We’ll get nothing from the Coalition on Climate Change action. After all, the Morrison Government recently threw together a set of initiatives to protect fossil fuel profits, which it had the audacity to announce in an international leaders’ forum convened by Joe Biden to discuss emission reduction targets. It assumed, correctly, that while they wouldn’t fool the world, they’d fool the punters, including those parts of the Australian media who weren’t directly complicit in the protection racket.
Wow!
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/948560
I have no clue if China will follow through on their Paris commitments, let alone improve on them (like pretty much everyone but developing African nations need to do). If they don’t then we’re all fucked, including them. The hint is in the “Global” part of “Global Warming”. Click here for the kind of impacts they may look forward to.
Where’s Boerwar to interpret Xi’s mouthpiece for us: https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1203270.shtml
Aqualung @ #1619 Thursday, May 6th, 2021 – 10:13 pm
Aqua, as a fellow Rabbitoh I feel your pain, but I suspect similar suspicions could have been raised about us in the Rusty era.
Bellamy’s created something special down there. I don’t like them, but I admire them.
C@tmomma @ #1621 Thursday, May 6th, 2021 – 10:29 pm
VIPIT is now known as TTS (thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome).
The TGA have (today) published a local update . The EMA is about to publish their updated data for May. wow.
dave @ #1604 Thursday, May 6th, 2021 – 9:41 pm
Don’t know about 2016, but bank shares are more for a reliable dividend payout than capital gains. And if you put money into the big 4 banks in April of 2020 when covid crashed everything, the yields you can expect, relative to your initial investment, when dividends return to pre-covid levels (probably soon) are:
Westpac – 12%
ANZ – 10%
NAB – 10%
CBA – 6.7%
Average – 9.7%
Show me an ETF that can match that, and I’ll buy it.
Though that says nothing about the ethics of investing in the big banks given what they get up to. But an ETF would hold some of their shares too, so kind of a wash regardless.
Ash Barty at least keeps giving us some happy news. 🙂
DisplayName @ #1624 Thursday, May 6th, 2021 – 10:34 pm
Sadly, there is no basis to believe they will. None!
No basis to believe them on anything, but you already know that, even if you don’t say it.
dave
I wouldn’t bet on China not going to war, but I will bet on China following through on their climate change commitments.
Self interest is the driving factor for both.
I’ll collect in 30 years, if half the human race hasn’t been wiped out by WW3 by then.
Up to you what you buy or don’t. Take it up with AFR.
But I think the article referred to total returns.
Bucephalus says:
Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 9:41 pm
dave says:
Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 9:12 pm
“China’s Emissions Now Exceed All the Developed World’s Combined
China now accounts for more greenhouse gas emissions than all of the world’s developed nations combined,”
…and the Warmies think China is going to change. I have a bridge to sell them.
Or so you hope. The sane members of the human population wish the energy transformation could happen sooner rather than later.
DisplayName @ #1630 Thursday, May 6th, 2021 – 10:59 pm
Up to you. Go for it!
People and countries don’t do stuff randomly, and trust is not necessary to working out how someone will behave.
dave
In 30 years, an “I was wrong, hit me with your told you so” from you will be sufficient :P.
That said, I’ll allow the chance for a scenario where no-one follows through on their commitments and we mutually self-destruct out of sheer bloody minded competitiveness. In which case you can have the pyrrhic “I told you so” :P.
DisplayName @ #1636 Thursday, May 6th, 2021 – 11:08 pm
It will be pointless. End of discussion.
Azerbaijani President raises Assange with BBC interviewer
https://twitter.com/ugrwah/status/1389869751560769536?s=21
Progress and reform Merican style yeeeeeeeeeeeeeee haw……….
.
South Carolina House votes to add firing squad as execution method.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/south-carolina-house-adds-firing-squad-execution-methods-77518005
That’ll go down well on Youtube won’t it…
“Chilling”: relaxing, not frightening.
‘They’re chilling’: endangered condors take up residence outside California woman’s home
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/may/06/california-condors-endangered-birds-tehachapi
New thread.
davidwh @ #1628 Thursday, May 6th, 2021 – 10:53 pm
I bet she’s pissed that she didn’t win the Aus Open though. Oh well, there’s always next year. 🙂
Mavis wrote:
[‘And while it’s by no means set in cement, the longer a jury takes, the more chance of a verdict favourable to the accused.’]
Shellbell responded:
[‘I thought it was the other way around.’]
You know what “thought” did…?
________________________________
Day after A-Z, a bit weary but nothing else.
A R,
The reason the dividend yields were great because they are based on the last 12 months of dividends and not much chop if the share price has tanked.
For example if you get annual dividends of $1 and the share price is $25-, your return is 4% however if the share price drops to say $12-50 the return is 8%. Great you doubled your return and the dividend amount has stayed the same but you have lost half your capital. Be very careful looking at dividend returns on individual stocks.
I use to work in a bank for nearly 40 years as a Business Banker, I saw the writing on the wall. Banks are not the safe havens they use to be but the problem is they, like the 3 big mining companies (BHP, FMG, RIO) make up a significant portion of the ASX index.