Affirmative inaction

Federal preselection season keeps rumbling on, with the Queensland LNP settling a keenly fought Senate contest on the weekend.

Before proceeding with the latest preselection news, I have a still-active post with daily updates on the progress of Tasmanian state election count; a live results feature that I can’t promote often enough, since it remains by some distance the most detailed source of results data available; and a lengthy plea for cash from Friday from which I’m still vaguely hopeful of squeezing another donation or two.

On with the show:

• The long-awaited Liberal National Party Senate preselection has allocated top position on the Queensland ticket to James McGrath while relegating Amanda Stoker to third, maintaining an impressive bipartisan run of preselectors never getting anything right. Michael McKenna of The Australian relates that McGrath secured a sweeping 212-101 win from the “biggest ever turnout for a State Council Senate vote”. The second position is designated to the Nationals, and is duly a lock for Matt Canavan.

Paul Starick of The Advertiser reports that Leah Blyth, who has the backing of the South Australian Liberal Party’s conservative faction to replace the retiring Nicolle Flint in the Adelaide seat of Boothby, may be poleaxed by the Section 44 of the Constitution. Blyth’s efforts to renounce a dual British citizenship even this far out from the election could fall foul of extended processing times arising from COVID-19, although others quoted in the report express doubt that it will really be a problem. Rival contenders include Rachel Swift, moderate-aligned proprietor of a health consultancy firm, and Shaun Osborn, a police officer who ran in the seat of Adelaide in 2019. However, Osborn is hampered by the optics of putting a man forward to replace Flint, whose experiences have been a key element in Liberal efforts to parry suggestions that disrespect for women is particularly a problem on their own side of politics.

John Ferguson of The Australian reports dissension within Victorian Labor over the likelihood that former state secretary Sam Rae will secure preselection for the new seat of Hawke on Melbourne’s north-western fringe. The report says a draft preselection agreement reserves the seat for the Right faction Transport Workers Union, which remains associated with party powerbroker and former Senator Stephen Conroy. While Conroy evidently backs Rae, “other parts” of the Right are said to favour the position going to a woman, specifically Natalie Hutchins, the Andrews government Corrections Minister and member for the seat of Sydenham.

Matthew Denholm of The Australian reported last week that “wholesale ALP federal intervention” loomed for the party’s Tasmanian branch, “barring a shock win for the party” at Saturday’s state election – which, for those of you who have just joined us, didn’t happen. The concern is that Left unions use their excessive weight within the branch’s affairs to do foolish things like deny preselection to Dean Winter, who was able to achieve his thumping win in Franklin on Saturday only because the national executive intervened to give him a place on the ticket. This would appear to be relevant to Labor’s preselections for the federal seat of Bass and Braddon, which it lost at the 2019 election, and also to the fate of twice-defeated state leader Rebecca White. The aforesaid Left unions are apparently keen on replacing her with David O’Byrne, who was outpolled in Franklin on Saturday by the aforesaid Dean Winter.

• The Liberal Party has done tellingly extensive research for its submission opposing the registration of a party under the name New Liberals, which included CT Group polling indicating that 69% of respondents believed a party thus named sounded like it had a connection with the other Liberal Party.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,646 comments on “Affirmative inaction”

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  1. Mavis @ #1548 Thursday, May 6th, 2021 – 7:39 pm

    C@tmomma:

    Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 7:24 pm

    [‘Mavis @ #1534 Thursday, May 6th, 2021 – 7:05 pm

    All I know is he’s going to be spending a cold, wet Sydney night in the remand Centre at Silverwater Jail tonight. Those concrete floors don’t get very warm.’]

    I’m told on reliable authority that the first few nights in the slammer are a bastard.

    I’ve been to Silverwater to visit the father of a guy I went out with for a while. His father used to be a spruiker outside of Kings Cross night clubs in the 60s and 70s (funny the sort of people whose children end up at Public Selective High Schools). He was one of those lovable rogue types that end up going through a revolving door of the jail for nothing too spectacular. But things which were still illegal.

    So I went there to visit him one Saturday and all I can remember is that it was depressing on an industrial scale. Smack bang in the middle of Western Sydney’s industrial zone it exhibited many of the same characteristics. Bleak. And it would be doubly so on a cold, wet night.

    Not that Jarrad Hayne doesn’t deserve it. ‘Christian’, my fat aunty! A true Christian would never have behaved that way towards a woman.

  2. Douglas and Milko says Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 5:19 pm

    I had my 1st AZ shot in Bondi Junction yesterday, at a NSW respiratory clinic. These seem to are the best bet if you want your dose in Sydney before your GP gets enough doses.

    Felling good apart from a sore injection action site – happens too me with most injections now, especially with tetanus shots, which leaves me very sore for a few days – I suspect my immunity to tetanus long-term is quite good these days.

    I’m having my AZ next week. I’ve had a few vaccines in my time (especially when travelling to the DRC), but so far tetanus has consistently been the worst. That might well change next week of course.

  3. A central issue in the proceedings will be whether the online article conveys the allegedly defamatory meanings claimed by Mr Porter. The court is the final arbiter of what a publication says, and in many cases this issue is not resolved until the end of the trial. This has significant time and cost consequences.
    In the application filed on Thursday, Mr Porter’s lawyers ask for these questions of meaning to be “determined separately to and in advance of any other question of liability”.
    This has the potential to resolve the proceedings more quickly because the ABC would only have to defend the meanings the court finds were conveyed by the article, rather than seeking to marshal defences to all the potential meanings.

    Would this be an attempt by Porter to keep the costs down? If he were going to lose on this, he would probably want to know pretty early. Would it also mean that the ABC wouldn’t be presenting the rest of their evidence unless Porter wins on this point?

  4. C@t

    Bleak and depressing? You remind me of Wallsend High School.

    Was inhabited by a bunch of vicious animals. And I’m not just talking about the children.

  5. Zerlo:

    Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 7:42 pm

    Those examples are appalling. And it’s what can happen when those such as Trump describe C.19 as the “China Virus”. It may’ve originated in Wuhan’s live animal market but singling those of Chinese descent is the pits. And it’s happening here too.

  6. I’m told on reliable authority that the first few nights in the slammer are a bastard.

    I’ve just finished the 3 books of Jeffrey Archers “Prison Diaries” where he went to prison for perjurery for about 2 yrs of a 4 yr sentence back in 2001-2 when he was 61.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Archer#Perjury_trial_and_imprisonment

    The Books called – Hell, Purgatory and Heaven. Dante etc…

    Interesting in parts, not sure I believe all of his own story, but an insight about the drug problem and the University of Prison for Criminals etc.

    In other parts I think he was badly treated for revenge & to make an example etc.

  7. Woke up this morning at Copi Hollow – one of the Menindee Lakes – and drove to Dubbo.

    While hardly any rain fell in the NSW Far West in the last big “event”, multi-multi-gigalitres of it did in Queensland. It has now reached the Darling, filling it, its billabongs and the Menindee Lakes with hundreds of square kilometers of water… over-the-horizon water. It’s instant wetland. The desert blooms. Green is the new black.

    As we drove to Wilcannia on the western Menindee-Wilcannia road – all dirt – we found unnamed little lakes, adjacent to the eastern side of the road on private properties, also full of water, and with their own populations of black swans, pelicans, ducks, geese and corellas absolutely blooming. No boats. No campers. No interference. Nature left to it’s own devices. Simply beautiful.

  8. One of the biggest Brexit supporters were the commercial fishermen – 99% supported exit from the EU and their fishing quotas. They got their wish.

    Fast forward 2 years, and the very same are whinging that those unfair EU people are giving them a taste of what British Bulldog sovereignty means…

  9. Cud Chewer @ #1561 Thursday, May 6th, 2021 – 8:10 pm

    C@t

    I did eventually escape, though I still have nightmares (and no, I’m not kidding about that)

    I’ve been to Wallsend and Cessnock during my Marching Girls years. Albeit that was a long time ago but I can still remember it (I think), as bleak and featureless. Kind of flat and reminiscent of one of those American towns that has a main street, a few side streets where the houses are, an oval and a school. And that was about it. Though I’m sure it’s better than that these days.

  10. Zerlo: “An elderly Thai immigrant dies after being shoved to the ground.”
    By a 19 yo African-American who claims he was merely trying to push the victim out of his way.

    “A Filipino-American is slashed in the face with a box cutter.”
    By a mentally-ill homeless Latino man who is accused of attacking several other people of varying ethnicity in the same way.

    “A Chinese woman is slapped and then set on fire.”
    By two 13 yo boys who I believe were also African-Americans.

    If there’s a trend in these cases, it’s far from clear that it’s about Trumpian anti-Asian sentiment.

    Of course, if you want, you can still blame Trumpian white supremacy for these attacks on Asian-Americans by African-American criminals. This article attempts to do so through a very convoluted argument.

    https://www.vox.com/22321234/black-asian-american-tensions-solidarity-history

    And this one takes a broadly similar line.

    https://theconversation.com/white-supremacy-is-the-root-of-all-race-related-violence-in-the-us-157566

    I can’t say I’m totally convinced by these arguments. It seems to me quite likely that many of these attacks are carried out by people who are prone to mugging and assaulting vulnerable people on the street, regardless of their ethnic background. There’s plenty of that going on in the larger US cities.

  11. C@tmomma:

    Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 7:52 pm

    I might have seen him as I used to frequent the Cross in the ’60s & ’70s – eg, the Texas Tavern, Pink Panther, the Taxi Club in Darlo, even Saffron’s Les Girls. And I do well remember the spruikers out the front of the strip joints, almost dragging one into their joints. As for your former boyfriend’s father, your description of him suggests he was a petty crim, who became institutionalised, some more comfortable in prison than out, though I’m sure Hayne wouldn’t fit said bill.

  12. C@t

    I visited Wallsend recently. Its still that. Mind you as a kid I used to think that being able to go to the newsagent in the main street after school was sheer heaven after being degraded and bullied all day long.

  13. Mavis @ #1567 Thursday, May 6th, 2021 – 8:29 pm

    C@tmomma:

    Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 7:52 pm

    I might have seen him as I used to frequent the Cross in the ’60s & ’70s – eg, the Texas Tavern, Pink Panther, the Taxi Club in Darlo, even Saffron’s Les Girls. And I do well remember the spruikers out the front of the strip joints, almost dragging one into their joints. As for your former boyfriend’s father, your description of him suggests he was a petty crim, who became institutionalised, some more comfortable in prison than out, though I’m sure Hayne wouldn’t fit said bill.

    He was a close friend of Tubby Black, the guy Abe Saffron had kneecapped. They said he was the best spruiker on the strip. His name was Ray.

  14. c@tmomma: “So I went there to visit him one Saturday and all I can remember is that it was depressing on an industrial scale. Smack bang in the middle of Western Sydney’s industrial zone it exhibited many of the same characteristics. Bleak. And it would be doubly so on a cold, wet night.”

    Somewhere in the midst of Silverwater Gaol is the grand home “Newington House”, built by the early settler John Blaxland: the brother of Greg Blaxland who led what was allegedly the first party of Whites to cross the Blue Mountains. (I’m not convinced that they were, but that’s a subject for another post on another day.)

    I’d love to see Newington House, but not surprisingly they don’t do open days. And I don’t think I’m prepared to try the alternative path to get there!

  15. Not all the Mitford sisters were communist. In fact their political beliefs ran the spectrum and one was a committed Nazi.

  16. clem attlee says:
    Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 8:39 pm
    Not all the Mitford sisters were communist. In fact their political beliefs ran the spectrum and one was a committed Nazi.
    _____________________
    But they were all mighty fine and notorious root-rats.

  17. Watching Q& A
    Scottless & his Ban on Australians is a cluster fuck of monumental proportions. Albo where the fuck are you?
    E. G . Whitlam would be leading from the front & on principal.

  18. “the longer a jury takes, the more chance of a verdict favourable to the accused.”

    I thought it was the other way around.

  19. clem attlee: “Not all the Mitford sisters were communist. In fact their political beliefs ran the spectrum and one was a committed Nazi.”

    One was an out-and-out Nazi (Unity) and one was a fascist (Diana, who married British Union of Fascists leader Oswald Mosley).

    The communist was Jessica, who moved to California.

  20. “No interference. Nature left to it’s own devices. Simply beautiful.”

    Yup.. which is what the fwarking irrigation lobby just chose to ignore so they can “flood plain harvest” for profit….:(

    Water needs to flow into and through the system to keep it healthy. Recharge shallow aquifers to build some resilience and flush things.

  21. My understanding was that in the Federal Court, given that there are no juries, the Court did not want lots of pre-trial arguments particularly on meaning.

  22. Sceptic says:
    Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 8:41 pm
    Watching Q& A
    Scottless & his Ban on Australians is a cluster fuck of monumental proportions. Albo where the fuck are you?
    E. G . Whitlam would be leading from the front & on principal.
    _____________-
    Why don’t u DM Albo on Twitter with your thoughts? I understand a number of peeps on here DM Albo with their thoughts, prayers, advices etc why not you?

  23. meher baba @ #1576 Thursday, May 6th, 2021 – 8:44 pm

    clem attlee: “Not all the Mitford sisters were communist. In fact their political beliefs ran the spectrum and one was a committed Nazi.”

    One was an out-and-out Nazi (Unity) and one was a fascist (Diana, who married British Union of Fascists leader Oswald Mosley).

    The communist was Jessica, who moved to California.

    Thanks for that. 🙂

  24. C@tmomma:

    Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 8:32 pm

    [‘He was a close friend of Tubby Black, the guy Abe Saffron had kneecapped. They said he was the best spruiker on the strip. His name was Ray.’]

    It’s too long ago to recall names but I most likely saw him. As you’d know, Saffron was called “The King of the Cross”, and “Mr. Sin”, who only ended up serving 17 months for tax evasion. He was also implicated in
    Juanita Nielsen’s presumed murder. The cops were obviously on his payroll, similar to the corruption in the Bjelke-Petersen days up here. Anyway, I’m off.

  25. C@t what can you tell us about the ransomware attack on the NSW ALP Head Office (as reported in the SMH)?

  26. “Re. De Belin’s & his co-accused trial? The jury has asked for more time to consider its verdict. And while it’s by no means set in cement, the longer a jury takes, the more chance of a verdict favourable to the accused.”

    I’ll be able to advise next week.

  27. Lars Von Trier

    Have you looked at Albo’s Twitter account?
    Not very inspiring even if we’re one on the converted.. less than useless if you aren’t
    Dull would be a compliment especially when compared to some of the US Democrats

  28. The Morrison government has vetoed public funding of a windfarm and battery project in northern Queensland, with a cabinet minister declaring it was inconsistent with its goals and policies.

    And the bustards will expect us to pay our tax $s into helping with the sky high (if they can get it) insurance due to bloody climate Change in Northern qld.

  29. Abe Saffron. Apparently well endowed but was a bit of a stutterer. The games the Waverley coppers (as told to me – Kings X was based there) related with him involved a joke about how many budgies could perch on Abe’s manhood. Abe never let on but always said th-th-the l-l-last one was st-st-standing on one l-l-leg.

    I’ll be here all week. Try the veal.

  30. Zerlo @ #1519 Thursday, May 6th, 2021 – 6:56 pm

    What is it with white people to attack those of color and different races just because of their own stupid ignorance and dumbest ?

    And why is it that when a white person does a racially or religiously motivated attack/murder/mass-shooting they have “mental health issues” but when a non-white perpetrator is involved they’re a “terrorist”?

  31. C@tmomma wrote:

    I’ve been to Wallsend and Cessnock during my Marching Girls years. Albeit that was a long time ago but I can still remember it (I think), as bleak and featureless. Kind of flat and reminiscent of one of those American towns that has a main street, a few side streets where the houses are, an oval and a school. And that was about it. Though I’m sure it’s better than that these days.

    I had a lover a lifetime ago who was from “Nethnock” (as Cessnockians call it themselves). I concur completely with C@t’s impressions of the town.

    I also thought the same of Dubbo, from where I write this post.

    After 10 hours travel from Menindee Lakes today, to a motel in Dubbo, I was expecting the same dusty tired town we visited almost 30 years ago in 1994. As you move from the arid desert landscape of the far west, to the more bountiful Central West, the change in physical landscape and topography is gradual, not dramatic.

    Having said that… move over trend setters! Dubbo has LEVELLED-UP!

    From what I have seen just this afternoon, the place is alive with night traffic, bustling restaurants, vigorous social networking, and a far more sophisticated vibe than I thought possible in such a short(ish) time as 28 years.

    But it’s happened. Dubbo has grown up. It’s humming.

    I am so impressed by Dubbo’s 2021 cosmo chic, that I’m even considering giving Nethnock another chance.

  32. Talk of Abe Saffron always turns one’s mind to Liberal Premier of NSW Bob Askin… maybe a ‘truth and reconciliation commission’ into Greasy Bob..

    ‘THE disgraced former Liberal premier Bob Askin was not only on the payroll of the late crime boss Abe Saffron, but was the recipient of payments via horse races that were fixed as “a courtesy to premier Askin”.

    Askin and a police commissioner were among those who received thousands of dollars a week from Saffron, the crime figure’s son has confirmed in a book on his father, to be released soon.

    Saffron was also involved in loan sharking. One of his borrowers was Kerry Packer.

    Despite Saffron’s lifelong denial of involvement in criminal activity, in Gentle Satan Saffron’s only son, Alan, 59, says his father controlled the vice trade, including illegal gambling and prostitution, in every state except Tasmania and the Northern Territory, and bribed a host of politicians and policemen to ensure he was protected.

    At one stage, the American “Mob” tried to persuade Saffron to operate a casino in Las Vegas on its behalf, but his father declined, he said.

    Mr Saffron details his father’s “excellent business relationship and long-standing friendship” with Askin and the police commissioner of the day, Norm Allan, who died in 1977. Questions were asked about the size of Askin’s estate, almost $2 million, when he died in 1981. Askin was knighted in 1972, while he was premier.

    https://www.oberonreview.com.au/story/806696/saffrons-son-dad-paid-off-askin-and-lent-packer-money/

  33. China’s Emissions Now Exceed All the Developed World’s Combined

    China now accounts for more greenhouse gas emissions than all of the world’s developed nations combined, according to new research from Rhodium Group.

    China’s emissions of six heat-trapping gases, including carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, rose to 14.09 billion tons of CO2 equivalent in 2019, edging out the total of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development members by about 30 million tons, according to the New York-based climate research group.

    The massive scale of China’s emissions highlights the importance of President Xi Jinping’s drive to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and reach net-zero by 2060.

    China accounted for 27% of global emissions.

    The U.S., the second biggest emitter, contributed 11% while India for the first time surpassed the European Union with about 6.6% of the global total.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-06/china-s-emissions-now-exceed-all-the-developed-world-s-combined?srnd=premium-asia

  34. As you’d know, Saffron was called “The King of the Cross”, and “Mr. Sin”, who only ended up serving 17 months for tax evasion.

    A close relative of mine (senior in the ATO at the time) wrote the brief in that tax case.

    The story she told me of how he tried to “persuade” her to drop the matter made my blood run cold.

  35. No idea who this is or if it’s legit.

    Richard Yabsley tweet

    National polling ATM …2PP ALP 54 LNP 46 #internalpolling

  36. Think that was Michael Yabsley Dave. Former Greiner Government Corrective Services minister iirc.
    Could be related I suppose.

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