Affirmative inaction

Federal preselection season keeps rumbling on, with the Queensland LNP settling a keenly fought Senate contest on the weekend.

Before proceeding with the latest preselection news, I have a still-active post with daily updates on the progress of Tasmanian state election count; a live results feature that I can’t promote often enough, since it remains by some distance the most detailed source of results data available; and a lengthy plea for cash from Friday from which I’m still vaguely hopeful of squeezing another donation or two.

On with the show:

• The long-awaited Liberal National Party Senate preselection has allocated top position on the Queensland ticket to James McGrath while relegating Amanda Stoker to third, maintaining an impressive bipartisan run of preselectors never getting anything right. Michael McKenna of The Australian relates that McGrath secured a sweeping 212-101 win from the “biggest ever turnout for a State Council Senate vote”. The second position is designated to the Nationals, and is duly a lock for Matt Canavan.

Paul Starick of The Advertiser reports that Leah Blyth, who has the backing of the South Australian Liberal Party’s conservative faction to replace the retiring Nicolle Flint in the Adelaide seat of Boothby, may be poleaxed by the Section 44 of the Constitution. Blyth’s efforts to renounce a dual British citizenship even this far out from the election could fall foul of extended processing times arising from COVID-19, although others quoted in the report express doubt that it will really be a problem. Rival contenders include Rachel Swift, moderate-aligned proprietor of a health consultancy firm, and Shaun Osborn, a police officer who ran in the seat of Adelaide in 2019. However, Osborn is hampered by the optics of putting a man forward to replace Flint, whose experiences have been a key element in Liberal efforts to parry suggestions that disrespect for women is particularly a problem on their own side of politics.

John Ferguson of The Australian reports dissension within Victorian Labor over the likelihood that former state secretary Sam Rae will secure preselection for the new seat of Hawke on Melbourne’s north-western fringe. The report says a draft preselection agreement reserves the seat for the Right faction Transport Workers Union, which remains associated with party powerbroker and former Senator Stephen Conroy. While Conroy evidently backs Rae, “other parts” of the Right are said to favour the position going to a woman, specifically Natalie Hutchins, the Andrews government Corrections Minister and member for the seat of Sydenham.

Matthew Denholm of The Australian reported last week that “wholesale ALP federal intervention” loomed for the party’s Tasmanian branch, “barring a shock win for the party” at Saturday’s state election – which, for those of you who have just joined us, didn’t happen. The concern is that Left unions use their excessive weight within the branch’s affairs to do foolish things like deny preselection to Dean Winter, who was able to achieve his thumping win in Franklin on Saturday only because the national executive intervened to give him a place on the ticket. This would appear to be relevant to Labor’s preselections for the federal seat of Bass and Braddon, which it lost at the 2019 election, and also to the fate of twice-defeated state leader Rebecca White. The aforesaid Left unions are apparently keen on replacing her with David O’Byrne, who was outpolled in Franklin on Saturday by the aforesaid Dean Winter.

• The Liberal Party has done tellingly extensive research for its submission opposing the registration of a party under the name New Liberals, which included CT Group polling indicating that 69% of respondents believed a party thus named sounded like it had a connection with the other Liberal Party.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,646 comments on “Affirmative inaction”

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  1. Contemplated stopping off for a jab on the way home this afternoon, however a friend said that everyone she knew had felt a little off for a couple of days afterwards, so I’ll leave it till tomorrow afternoon so (if necessary) I can be miserable at home.

  2. Thanks Dio.

    I actually took neurone ibuprofen, which seemed to work after a while, but if it happens again I will use both.

    Edited for stupid autocorrect.

  3. Zoom,

    The info sheet I got said that 67% of people reported a reaction, usually mild.

    However, I do feel a bit tired now, and so will probably not do too much tonight.

    Weekend is a good idea I think.

  4. Mr Denmore
    @MrDenmore
    ·
    15m
    “Jenny and I spoke and she said: ‘You have to think of it this way: There’s the China we eat off, the China we use when Brother Stewie and family come around and the China we never touch. One China, three systems.’ Jenny has a way of clarifying things. Always has.”

  5. What’s freaky is knowing that there has been at least one unknown person wandering around Sydney (or even elsewhere) who was infectious and not knowing who else might also be wandering around right now.

    There’s a reason we have short sharp lockdowns in other states.

  6. poroti

    Surprised it took NZ so long. Now they have the task of tracking down everyone who has come from Sydney in the last week.

  7. D&M

    I had no reaction at first. Then it started to happen the next day – almost imperceptibly at first.
    Following day what could be described as a mild cold. End of next day, fine.

  8. I have received two requests from VicHealth to fill in surveys on after effects of vax, one for immediate reaction and one after a few days. Included symptoms and what medication I might have taken for it.

  9. Cud Chewer

    There’s a reason we have short sharp lockdowns in other states.

    Gambling has always been popular with the Rum Corp so taking a punt is the way to go for them.

  10. jon “airships” kudelka
    @jonkudelka
    ·
    1m
    Looking forward to the stage where Scott simply fakes being in a coma to maintain plausible deniability for absolutely everything.

  11. Poroti,

    Poor Karl couldn’t remember that one to his eternal frustration.

    But, he did die in 1883.

  12. Thanks Lizzie, and others who commented. So far I feel fine, not even (yet) the sore arm which I usually get with the flu jab. However those commenting that tomorrow could be a bit more troublesome is a little concerning. I’m such a sook! LOL.

    I have panadol etc (if fact I took two when I got home) and, if the worst comes to the worst, a rather lovely single malt!

  13. The PM launched three sponsored videos on Facebook this week, including subtitles in Hindi and Punjabi, where he talks directly to the camera about the ban for nearly nine minutes http://buff.ly/3vIIbZA

    Story from
    @joshgnosis

    This is Scomo talking. Why does he think it makes him more believable to be called Scomo? He’s the Prime Minister, for heaven’s sake. Migrants would give him authority for that.

  14. That article that Jaeger linked at 1:11 pm is extremely interesting.

    (Prior MMR or Tdap vaccination may reduce risk of severe COVID-19)

    I don’t browse PB much any more (let alone comment) as the signal/noise ratio has gone off the charts but glad I stopped by today to find that little gem. Wasn’t even politics related.

  15. Zuvele Leschen @ #1499 Thursday, May 6th, 2021 – 5:26 pm

    Contemplated stopping off for a jab on the way home this afternoon, however a friend said that everyone she knew had felt a little off for a couple of days afterwards, so I’ll leave it till tomorrow afternoon so (if necessary) I can be miserable at home.

    Not the best Mothers Day present. 🙂

  16. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/05/us/asian-attack-san-francisco.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

    The stabbing on Market Street this week and other attacks have caused some older Asian-American residents in the Bay Area to fear going outdoors, community leaders said.

    In broad daylight, on one of the busiest streets in San Francisco, two unsuspecting Asian women, one of them 84 years old, had just been attacked by a man with a large military-style knife, the authorities and witnesses said.

    “He walked right next to me — I could have been the one who got stabbed,” said Ms. Lee, who witnessed the attack on Tuesday afternoon. Police arrested a 54-year-old man, Patrick Thompson, who they say carried out the attack, although the motive remains unknown.

    Mr. Thompson was charged on Wednesday with attempted murder. Both women were treated for their wounds at a San Francisco hospital and their conditions were described by the police as non-life-threatening.

    ————————————

    What is it with white people to attack those of color and different races just because of their own stupid ignorance and dumbest ?

  17. Roy Orbison @ #1473 Thursday, May 6th, 2021 – 4:26 pm

    “Hayne should have been a federal Liberal MP or cabinet minister. He would have got off scot free and probably promoted”

    He is in Hillsong and that didn’t help him. A friend of mine has been on the Jack de Belin jury for over three weeks now. Sworn to secrecy and took it seriously. The only thing we really know is that they are now in the deliberation stage and have been since Monday.

    As far as I know, de Belin isn’t in the Liberal Party or Hillsong so he would be sweating up a storm at this point. The other accused is now a Cronulla Sharks lower grader so he is probably sweet.

    Speaking of the Dragons, did you hear that Hayne was poised to sign with them a day or so after he was charged with rape? You have to wonder whether they’d heard about it or not when they entered into negotiations with him.

  18. The only surprising element of Hayne’s conviction is the reason(s) he was admitted to bail after the jury found him guilty on March, 22 – this being most unusual. And if he keeps claiming he’s innocent it’s most likely that he won’t be granted parole.

  19. Mavis @ #1534 Thursday, May 6th, 2021 – 7:05 pm

    The only surprising element of Hayne’s conviction is the reason(s) he was admitted to bail after the jury found him guilty on March, 22 – this being most unusual. And if he keeps claiming he’s innocent it’s most likely that he won’t be granted parole.

    Mavis, the thing I didn’t understand was why the defence used his (alleged) reconnection with his Christian faith as an attempt to mitigate the sentence.

    Why on earth would or should that carry any weight?

  20. C@tmomma @ #1533 Thursday, May 6th, 2021 – 7:03 pm

    Cud Chewer @ #1530 Thursday, May 6th, 2021 – 6:57 pm

    C@t

    At least I got to yell “fuck off” at Gladys on the TV again. Theraputic.

    So did I! And a few other choice words.

    Jeez, I wonder how long we’ll have to wait before Gladys’ PB White Knight, Oakeshott Country, rides in to defend her? 😆

    She got very snaky when she started to get hostile questions. Perhaps she should study the gold standard answering technique of one Daniel Andrews

  21. ajm @ #1536 Thursday, May 6th, 2021 – 7:16 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1533 Thursday, May 6th, 2021 – 7:03 pm

    Cud Chewer @ #1530 Thursday, May 6th, 2021 – 6:57 pm

    C@t

    At least I got to yell “fuck off” at Gladys on the TV again. Theraputic.

    So did I! And a few other choice words.

    Jeez, I wonder how long we’ll have to wait before Gladys’ PB White Knight, Oakeshott Country, rides in to defend her? 😆

    She got very snaky when she started to get hostile questions. Perhaps she should study the gold standard answering technique of one Daniel Andrews

    She’d fall at the first hurdle.

  22. Mavis @ #1534 Thursday, May 6th, 2021 – 7:05 pm

    The only surprising element of Hayne’s conviction is the reason(s) he was admitted to bail after the jury found him guilty on March, 22 – this being most unusual. And if he keeps claiming he’s innocent it’s most likely that he won’t be granted parole.

    All I know is he’s going to be spending a cold, wet Sydney night in the remand Centre at Silverwater Jail tonight. Those concrete floors don’t get very warm.

  23. Zerlo

    What is it with white people to attack those of color and different races just because of their own stupid ignorance and dumbest ?

    Go on Zerlo,now tell us that brand of stupidity is unique to ‘Whities’

  24. I’m not sure if this has been officially released so I will make my comments of a general nature but I think the proverbial is about to hit the fan.
    The proposed changes to bus services in the eastern suburbs have been posted internally.
    Can’t wait for the customer feedback.
    Some very weird changes.

  25. Once you plead not guilty (and maintain it because you wish to appeal), then there is not much mitigation wriggle room once you are convicted – lack of premeditation is about for Hayne.

  26. poroti says:
    Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 7:26 pm

    Xenophobic/Racist attacks. As per my previous posts – it has been a massive increase over the past two years due to COVID19, egged on by pin pointing by media and politics.

    Perhaps that gives you a clue Poroti.

    Note to PB: I am also white, I just know that I’m not blaming Asian origin(?) for a virus.

  27. Spray:

    Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 7:14 pm

    [‘Mavis, the thing I didn’t understand was why the defence used his (alleged) reconnection with his Christian faith as an attempt to mitigate the sentence.

    Why on earth would or should that carry any weight?’]

    It would carry very little weight indeed. It was a waste of time and money to find God in Perth. It was up to him whether to plead not guilty and his lawyers have to accept his instructions. A lawyer generally knows
    if the evidence is against a client. But therein often presents a conflict of interest when having a high profile client, and whose flush with funds. A motza can be made by a solicitor and counsel in a trial, whereas, there’s nothing much to be made in a sentencing hearing. I’m sure, though, that they would’ve informed him that a plea of guilty would’ve resulted in a reduced sentence as it facilitates the administration of justice, negates the examination of the complainant, and demonstrates remorse, but Hayne had none of these factors of mitigation to rely on.

  28. C@tmomma:

    Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 7:24 pm

    [‘Mavis @ #1534 Thursday, May 6th, 2021 – 7:05 pm

    All I know is he’s going to be spending a cold, wet Sydney night in the remand Centre at Silverwater Jail tonight. Those concrete floors don’t get very warm.’]

    I’m told on reliable authority that the first few nights in the slammer are a bastard.

  29. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56218684.amp

    An elderly Thai immigrant dies after being shoved to the ground. A Filipino-American is slashed in the face with a box cutter. A Chinese woman is slapped and then set on fire.
    These are just examples of recent violent attacks on Asian Americans, part of a surge in abuse since the start of the pandemic a year ago.
    From being spat on and verbally harassed to incidents of physical assault, there have been thousands of reported cases in recent months.
    Advocates and activists say these are hate crimes, and often linked to rhetoric that blames Asian people for the spread of Covid-19.

  30. Re the article linked by Frednk @6:26 PM.

    The Morrison government has vetoed public funding of a windfarm and battery project in northern Queensland, with a cabinet minister declaring it was inconsistent with its goals and policies.

    Those goals and policies being to defend and boost fossil fuel industry profits.

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