Before proceeding with the latest preselection news, I have a still-active post with daily updates on the progress of Tasmanian state election count; a live results feature that I can’t promote often enough, since it remains by some distance the most detailed source of results data available; and a lengthy plea for cash from Friday from which I’m still vaguely hopeful of squeezing another donation or two.
On with the show:
• The long-awaited Liberal National Party Senate preselection has allocated top position on the Queensland ticket to James McGrath while relegating Amanda Stoker to third, maintaining an impressive bipartisan run of preselectors never getting anything right. Michael McKenna of The Australian relates that McGrath secured a sweeping 212-101 win from the “biggest ever turnout for a State Council Senate vote”. The second position is designated to the Nationals, and is duly a lock for Matt Canavan.
• Paul Starick of The Advertiser reports that Leah Blyth, who has the backing of the South Australian Liberal Party’s conservative faction to replace the retiring Nicolle Flint in the Adelaide seat of Boothby, may be poleaxed by the Section 44 of the Constitution. Blyth’s efforts to renounce a dual British citizenship even this far out from the election could fall foul of extended processing times arising from COVID-19, although others quoted in the report express doubt that it will really be a problem. Rival contenders include Rachel Swift, moderate-aligned proprietor of a health consultancy firm, and Shaun Osborn, a police officer who ran in the seat of Adelaide in 2019. However, Osborn is hampered by the optics of putting a man forward to replace Flint, whose experiences have been a key element in Liberal efforts to parry suggestions that disrespect for women is particularly a problem on their own side of politics.
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports dissension within Victorian Labor over the likelihood that former state secretary Sam Rae will secure preselection for the new seat of Hawke on Melbourne’s north-western fringe. The report says a draft preselection agreement reserves the seat for the Right faction Transport Workers Union, which remains associated with party powerbroker and former Senator Stephen Conroy. While Conroy evidently backs Rae, “other parts” of the Right are said to favour the position going to a woman, specifically Natalie Hutchins, the Andrews government Corrections Minister and member for the seat of Sydenham.
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reported last week that “wholesale ALP federal intervention” loomed for the party’s Tasmanian branch, “barring a shock win for the party” at Saturday’s state election – which, for those of you who have just joined us, didn’t happen. The concern is that Left unions use their excessive weight within the branch’s affairs to do foolish things like deny preselection to Dean Winter, who was able to achieve his thumping win in Franklin on Saturday only because the national executive intervened to give him a place on the ticket. This would appear to be relevant to Labor’s preselections for the federal seat of Bass and Braddon, which it lost at the 2019 election, and also to the fate of twice-defeated state leader Rebecca White. The aforesaid Left unions are apparently keen on replacing her with David O’Byrne, who was outpolled in Franklin on Saturday by the aforesaid Dean Winter.
• The Liberal Party has done tellingly extensive research for its submission opposing the registration of a party under the name New Liberals, which included CT Group polling indicating that 69% of respondents believed a party thus named sounded like it had a connection with the other Liberal Party.
Aqua
Cool. Thanks for replying.
My point was we know MMP does not encourage tablecloth size ballots. Unless I have missed something in Europe.
Another good argument for the more democratic system.
Edit: With Hare Clark what I like is the voter chooses the candidate they like within the party, not the party. It does not eliminate but does greatly reduce factional control of political parties.
Theo
If the Greens stated intention is to win two seats from Labor, why should Labor do the Greens any favours at all?
Anyway, preferences don’t matter in Senate elections any more.
“ As a Mortgage Broker people bankrupting themselves over phone bills and credit card debt is often creating a long term problem as it is a red flag for most Lenders even after the expiry of the the Bankruptcy term.”
He might think differently when he’s 40, but I don’t think Jordy gives a rats arse about his credit profile right now. More power to him.
Zoomster
Yes arguing don’t vote One Nation or LNP is really saying don’t vote Labor
One of the more stupid partisan comments from you.
porotisays:
Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 1:34 pm
“Sweden, poster child for the “live with covid”crowd , is not going so well . Currently getting 5000+ cases a day. Equivalent to about 12,500 a day in Australia, their total deaths equivalent to 35,000. Next door neighbor Norway 360 per day. What say you Buce ?”
Sweden’s new case rate is falling rapidly and they have a very low daily death rate.
AE,
You may be right. However, all I suggest is that anyone considering Bankruptcy take advice from a Professional and consider all the implications that a particular decision or choice will mean.
Being remorseful for a lack of borrowing capacity at 40 or older for decisions made years earlier is a painful thing to watch.
guytaur
Learn to read.
Bystander says:
Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 11:13 am
“If there’s anyone here who follows the AFL and watches Footy Classified regularly, can you please tell me why Caroline Wilson is not on the panel at the moment. She’s been missing for weeks and I’ve been unable to find out why.”
They want their ratings to go up?
Zoomster
You framed a post against voting One Nation or LNP as a vote against Labor by using the word compete.
Theo’s post was clear. If the choice is Green or One Nation or LNP vote Green.
guytaur
I’m sorry if my post was too complex for you, but if you don’t understand it, there’s no use me trying to explain it to you.
Torchbearer says:
Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 12:09 pm
“First it was the Indian Australians/ Australians in India that could not come home without threat of imprisonment. Who next?
What guarantee do you have the next time you leave the country, the Govt wont make it illegal for you to return?
This is a dangerous precedent.”
That’s why I haven’t left WA – because MacGowan has already done that for West Australians.
Zoomster
I understood it it alright. You think by using propaganda you can shift voters numbers. Some news for you. BB is right about the influence this commentary part of William’s site has on voters.
So we can discuss preferences given the math without propaganda trying to shift primary votes where the numbers show it’s unlikely Labor is going to win.
For Labor in government it wants the Greens not One Nation or the LNP having the Senate balance of power.
guytaur
You really didn’t, as your response shows.
The Labor right always prefers doing favours for the Libs rather than the Greens.
Zoomster
I really did as your intervention shows. Theo was talking about the Senate.
The numbers are the numbers and denial about likely results on balance of power does zero to help Labor.
Edit: Last time such thinking got Kevin Rudd Steve Fielding as the balance of power vote.
Rex
‘The Labor right always prefers doing favours for the Libs rather than the Greens.’
Do they?
You seem to know more about them than I do.
guytaur
Theo was talking about Greens contesting seats such as Brisbane, currently held by Labor.
He then asked Labor people to preference the Greens in the Senate.
Firstly, that shows an ignorance of how Senate voting now works.
Secondly, it’s a bit rich to say ‘we’re trying to get rid of Labor MPs, please help get Greens elected.”
I know – there were two separate issues being discussed, it must have been hard for you.
“If the Greens stated intention is to win two seats from Labor, why should Labor do the Greens any favours at all?
Anyway, preferences don’t matter in Senate elections any more.”
Which two seats are you talking about exactly? If you mean Brisbane and Ryan, they are held by the LNP, not Labor. If you mean the last Senate spot in QLD, it is likely to come down to the Greens vs Hanson or Stoker. Again, not Labor.
Preferences don’t matter anymore? Since when? What a silly thing to suggest.
Why should Labor preference the Greens? Who would you rather see in the Senate? A Green, Hanson, or Stoker? That’s why.
Besides, as we have discussed at length before, Labor are completely reliant on Greens preferences to stand any hope of getting anywhere near government.
But if you want to go ahead and preference the LNP or PHON ahead of us then by all means tell us. Be honest. If it were a choice between Labor, Hanson, or Stoker, I’d pick Labor every day of the week. Will you say the same about the Greens?
Come on Labor, work with us, don’t team up with the Coalition and PHON. You should be better than that.
“Theo was talking about Greens contesting seats such as Brisbane, currently held by Labor.”
Brisbane is held by the LNP. Specifically by Trevor Evans. Ryan is also held by the LNP.
Zoomster
It’s very hard for you.
It’s you also conflating the two issues by not making clear you are talking about the House in reply.
I specifically talked about the Senate.
So nice try with your red herring.
The Division of Brisbane is currently held by Trevor Evans of the LNP.
The thing that Theo quoted was talking about taking seats held by Liberals.
The general consensus from the media is that Morrison will not go to an election till next year.
I have been having increasing doubts about this. For Morrison to do well at the next election he is going to have to solve some major problems, not the least of them being vaccination and quarantine.
How does he transition to appropriate quarantine without wearing the delay in starting to build the system
How does he overcome the vaccine problems when he banked on a vaccine that the largest cohort of workers are advised against. Where does he source and then roll.out more vaccines.
Would he be better off dropping a budget that plays well to the masses to negate these issues and then call a surprise election before any of it is implemented.
Labour was caught on the back foot in Tasmania with an election called prior to all pre selections being completed. What is the risk he will try the same?
A NYT article on Stephen Fry. In it Fry mentions ” the narcissism of small differences” . From the description social media is quite a playground for it. Maybe it even makes a few appearance in Teh Bludger Lounge 🙂 ( Open in Incognito )
.
Stephen Fry Would Like to Remind You That You Have No Free Will
………………… Bertrand Russell’s “A History of Western Philosophy,” and a friend of mine put me onto Freud’s “Civilization and Its Discontents.” I was intrigued with what Freud called the narcissism of small differences. How come when something aggressive occurs just outside your little moral, political and cultural bubble — a statement by someone you really dislike; it could be Eric Trump or some figure like that of no significance in the world — you find yourself trembling with fury at the person who is saying these things because they strike you as so dumb, so cruel, so deceptive, whatever it is? What we have to understand is that once we have our set of rules and outlooks, any suggestion that those may be wrong becomes a suggestion that I may be wrong. It’s an assault on my Self with a capital S. That’s partly what Freud meant by the narcissism of small differences: that arguments become deeply personal.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/05/03/magazine/stephen-fry-interview.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage§ion=The%20New%20York%20Times%20Magazine
Theo Andelini:
It’s a defensible position (talking specifically about the Senate), because in 2019 every seat after the full quotas went to the highest remaining partial quotas based on the initial first-preferences-by-group.
I don’t really agree though because in some elections it can be a closer run thing.
Theo
Thanks for the correction re Brisbane and Ryan; my apologies.
Preferences – as traditionally understood – don’t work in the Senate any more. At most, parties advise voters which of the 5 boxes they want numbered. I doubt any Labor HTV would have PHON in the top five.
Assantdj,
I agree with all your points. It’s why im so itcy about labor being silent right now. Albo has to land a killer budget reply and then IMHO it’s on. I’d expect an early Setp election or sooner if Scomo has a good family focused budget response.
This is a thing in America right now:
https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F54778088-90f6-4774-8fa4-e4a7cf5a1b23_1222x986.jpeg
I’m sure Scott Morrison would love someone to make an Australian version.
“We have to come out from under the doona” Morrison shouting the odds last year.
This year….All those coming from India suspect………….Throw them in the slammer if they sneak in……!(Or, don’t throw them in the slammer, as I was only kidding says Morrison)
Morrison/Cash……”We are doing this for your health…..(wtte) ……..
The Liberals have got the hypocrisy gig, game, set and match…….Labor is kind of okay at hypocrisy but the LNP still wins hands down…
Andrew_Earlwood @ #603 Tuesday, May 4th, 2021 – 2:41 pm
It surely wouldn’t get in the way of him entering politics, that’s for sure.
Tricot
They have an amazing ability to do it with a straight face. Heck, Scrott does hypocrisy so well he doesn’t feel the need to even bother with a straight face, Smirks-R-Us
A fascinating analysis of where democracy is right now and why the appearance is more important than the actuality for many politicians today:
https://podcast.thebulwark.com/peter-wehner-on-threats-to-democracy
Bertrand Russel vs C S Lewis would have been fascinating to watch. I’m sure they came across each other in the philosophical trenches in the 20th century.
Assantdj says:
Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 3:18 pm
“How does he transition to appropriate quarantine without wearing the delay in starting to build the system.”
This doesn’t need to happen. The States will continue to run their own systems.
“How does he overcome the vaccine problems when he banked on a vaccine that the largest cohort of workers are advised against. Where does he source and then roll.out more vaccines.”
Both issues that can be solved in the next year.
“Would he be better off dropping a budget that plays well to the masses to negate these issues and then call a surprise election before any of it is implemented.”
There’s little history of Budgets having such a definitive impact that an election is a good strategy.
I think he will go as late as possible – there’s bugger all upside in going any earlier than you have to.
Bob Katter too?
Does anyone want a 100% Australian Union-made hoodie for winter? You know you do!
https://shop.australianunions.org.au/
GG
Maybe it’s all the INTELLIGENT crossbench members.
GG
Looks like the Indies have found a stunt opportunity to berate the Government without actually making anything happen.
test
Assantdj @ #622 Tuesday, May 4th, 2021 – 3:18 pm
Me too. I have thought for a while that Albo and Labor are being played for mugs. Albo announced that his strategy is to carpet bomb the electorate with policies in the last few months of the campaign. But if so then telling your opponent that is just asking for trouble. If I was Morrison I would call the election once the vaccine rollout finally starts running properly (if it ever does), and ASAP after announcing a big-spending budget, giving the minimum possible notice period (which I think is 3 months?). Albo and Labor will be caught flat-footed as usual, with no policies to speak of announced or even ready, and no-one paying them any attention at all.
I hope I am wrong, because if I am not, Labor will lose. Again.
Damn, no edit function.
There’s a pic of Morrison, hands on hips to show dominant masculinity, standing beside a large bull who looks singularly unimpressed.
“Preferences – as traditionally understood – don’t work in the Senate any more. At most, parties advise voters which of the 5 boxes they want numbered. I doubt any Labor HTV would have PHON in the top five.”
That wasn’t what I asked you. I didn’t ask about HTVs, I asked if you would prefer a Green to Hanson or Stoker. If so, then you should preference the Greens. If not, then preference the far-right nutters. But be honest. Because if it’s Labor vs Hanson or Stoker then I’d preference Labor every single time.
If preferences in the Senate don’t matter anymore, perhaps you should let Antony Green know, because it seems you know something that he doesn’t. The reality is that preferences are often critical in determining who takes out the last couple of spots. Ending the micro party preference harvesting that you were so fond of doesn’t mean that preferences don’t matter at all anymore, just that they can’t be abused by parties that nobody has ever heard of.
https://antonygreen.com.au/how-the-new-senate-electoral-system-at-its-first-half-senate-election-test/
lizzie
Add
#image.jpg
at the end of the address.
lizzie @ #643 Tuesday, May 4th, 2021 – 3:50 pm
Another, all sizzle, no sausage moment from Scotty from Hands On (hips as it seems to be in this instance).
poroti
I usually do, but that one mucked up and I couldn’t delete it b/c no edit function.
This Lizzie?
That’s one very unimpressed Bovine…
So Scomo does the chicken dance afterwards:
C@t
Bull thinks: I bet mine’s bigger than yours.
This analysis confirms that the new Senate system weights the allocation of final seats in favour of parties with the highest remainders on first preferences. This is not the same as advantaging parties with the highest first preference vote. After the allocation of seats to filled quotas, the remaining partial quotas of parties polling above a quota must compete with the initial partial quotas of parties that polled less than a quota on first preferences. Who wins the final seats is then a battle of preferences, with exhausted preferences and weak preferences flows favouring the party with the largest initial partial quota.
https://antonygreen.com.au/how-the-new-senate-electoral-system-at-its-first-half-senate-election-test/