Easter eggs

Preselection jockeying for Andrew Laming’s seat of Bowman, a looming state by-election in NSW, and a post-mortem into yet another election defeat in the ACT.

The interruption of Easter means we’re not likely to see any opinion polls this week. A new post is wanted though, so I offer the following loose assemblage of news items. My own efforts have late have been consumed by my Tasmanian election guide, which is currently being buffed and polished ahead of publication later today.

Lydia Lynch of the Brisbane Times reports the executive of Queensland’s Liberal National Party has voted to reopen preselection nominations for Andrew Laming’s seat of Bowman, by a bare margin of 11 to 10, but for which the position would be assured for businesswoman Fran Ward, the only candidate to nominate against Andrew Laming when he still intended to run. The Australian reports that “conservative forces” were keen that this should happen to open the way for Henry Pike, communications adviser for the Property Council and unsuccessful candidate for Redlands at the October state election. The Brisbane Times report says the preselection looms as a three-way contest between Ward, Pike and barrister Maggie Forrest. Senator Amanda Stoker has ruled herself out, despite expectations she could use the seat to resolve a difficulty where she and James McGrath are in competition for the safe first and loseable third positions on the LNP Senate ticket, the second position being reserved to the Nationals.

• A by-election will be held in the New South Wales state seat of Upper Hunter following the resignation of Nationals member Michael Johnsen after he was accused of raping a sex worker. I will have a dedicated post and election guide up for the by-election hopefully later in the week. For what it’s worth, Sportsbet has Shooters Fishers and Farmers as favourites to win the seat, paying $1.50 compared with $3.25 for the Nationals and $8 for Labor.

• The Canberra Times reports on the findings of an internal review into the ACT Liberals’ sixth successive election defeat in October, finding more effort should have been made to win over “soft Greens voters” who might be persuaded by a pitch targeting the Greens’ “anti-small business bent” and “soft law and order policies”. The review was conducted by Grahame Morris, lobbyist and one-time chief-of-staff to John Howard, Vicki Dunne, recently retired Liberal MP, and Daniel Clode, the party’s campaign manager in 2016.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

476 comments on “Easter eggs”

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  1. The Dan Andrews health situation sounds pretty terrible and warrants a mention. If 6 weeks becomes 3 months it might very well be he will be forced to retire.

    Let’s hope he gets better and is able to get on top of it – if at least for his and his family’s sake.

  2. Cud Chewer the article starts

    A Brisbane startup says it can make the active ingredients for the new generation of mRNA vaccines in Australia, but more government funding and training support are critical to produce these products at scale.

    For sure they have more hope than you or I in our garage.
    They have a very nice fermentation process

    The article then goes onto say:

    The firm’s capabilities extend to making mRNA vaccines and other products, but there are significant barriers to making these products in their entirety in Australia, he explained.

    Are you for real?

    Here is an article for july 2020, written after the decision was made, to give a flavor of what was known at the time:


    And here is someone trying to explain what is really required:


  3. Zoomster the report says he can walk 18 mins a day, I don’t know at what rate he can or will improve but it’s obviously very serious.

  4. Lars

    It says he’s making steady progress and that his daily walk is up to 18 minutes a day. I’d be assuming that he’s doing lots of smaller walks throughout the day (based on my own post operative experience).

    I don’t think you need to fret about him, although I’m sure he’d be touched by your concern.

  5. It’s not unheard for political leaders to be economical with their health status zoomster. Anyway I’ll leave it at that.

    On another note – apparently some stranded aussies overseas have lodged a human rights complaint to the UN. How very 3rd world of us.

  6. Homespun philosophy, courtesy of my son:
    Me: I think I have found my limit (after trying to pull a few weeds out around the bins after bringing them in and ending up with a stitch)
    Him: Yes your limits are when you have gone too far.

    I can only agree… shuffles away embarrassingly 🙂

  7. How much does the coming Coup d’état in Sussex St rely on the ALPs showing in Upper Hunter? A good result and Jodi will be safe for a little longer. A poor result and a method to get Gerard Hayes, the reformer we have to have, into Macquarie St will be quickly found.

  8. Now to politics. I think it would be obvious to Scott Morrison, even though he says he can’t intervene in LNP politics, that to choose a Conservative Male as the candidate for Bowman, from a field of 2 women and a man, would not produce the desired look. And that is what that man is all about.

  9. Well OC is a good result the ALP winning the seat or Is it enough that the Libs don’t win, ie 3rd party?

  10. Gerard Hayes will be a fine member of the ALP team, whenever it happens.

    And despite the viperous assertions of Oakeshott Country it won’t be to immediately come in as leader to replace Jodi Mackay.

    With his history as an Intensive Care Paramedic and his grounded & honest leadership of the HSU, after the turmoils of the past, he is the ideal person to represent Labor, when the time comes.

  11. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Sydney Airport boss Geoff Culbert is calling for Australia to open US-style mass immunisation centres to speed up its COVID-19 vaccine program or risk being left behind. He is warning that the world will move on without us if we continue lagging behind on vaccine rollout.
    Stephen Hamiliton and Richard Holden describe our vaccine rollout as an unmittigated disaster, and they tell us how to fix it.
    Ben Schneiders reports that Australia’s charity regulator has been called on to investigate Scientology amid concerns it is abusing its not-for-profit status. Bring it on! And don’t stop there.
    According to Shane Wright, he IMF has urged countries to use budget repair levies, such as that used by the Abbott government, to fill the deficits left by the coronavirus, but it warns deep cuts to spending could lead to political instability. It has also suggested taxes on “excess” profits such as the abandoned mining resource rent tax.
    Mike Foley writes that the Nationals’ call for a one-off visa amnesty on up to 100,000 undocumented agricultural workers has been rejected by the federal Department of Home Affairs, presenting a test for the Coalition government as regional MPs warn illegal workers are unlikely to present for vaccinations.
    In a VERY long explanation, David Tyler tells us how Morrison can’t take a trick.
    Queensland is bracing for more forecast extreme rain and flooding from above Bundaberg to the Sunshine Coast. The Bureau of Meteorology issued a severe weather warning for damaging winds, heavy rainfall and dangerous surf for a large swathe of South-East Queensland late last night.
    Labor has welcomed the support of new defence minister Peter Dutton for a standing royal commission to address veteran suicides but says the proposal needs to be fleshed out with specific details.
    John Faine writes about the different types of NIMBYs.
    Rachel Clun says that aged care experts are saying boosting staff numbers is the key to reducing waiting times for in-home care for the elderly and improving services and employee satisfaction across the sector, but funding alone isn’t the answer. There were 96,000 people still on a waiting list for their approved home care package
    As the pandemic puts increasing pressure on young people’s futures, supporting our universities is more important than ever, argues Peter Hurley.
    Ross Gittins contemplates the things that traditional economics ignores and damages.
    A strident Virginia Haussegger declares that women will not be silenced again and heavily criticises Morrison’s wallpapering and deflections.
    Katherine Murphy reports that a former Morrison government staffer, Josie Coles, says she will make a submission to the looming review of parliamentary culture detailing allegations of bullying while working in the office of the minister for Indigenous Australians, Ken Wyatt, in 2018.
    In a thoughtful contribution Amanda Vanstone writes that the reason Australia should become a republic is about us, not the Windsors.
    A review of paracetamol for 44 common pain conditions found no strong evidence to support its use in many instances. I cannot recall it ever being effective for me.
    For the first time, South Australian ambulance officers will be able to make the call on treating patients at home, to tackle ballooning emergency department numbers.
    After a Melbourne-based woman reported to police that she had been raped, she was notified that her case was being looked into — 89 days after her report, posts Cheek Media Co.
    Until we fully embrace our new arrivals and eliminate all forms of racism and discrimination in this country, we cannot expect to be a truly cohesive society, writes Dr Sabrin Farooqui.
    Boris Johnson is a man of principles, and we should thank Jennifer Arcuri for exposing them, says Catherine Bennett in a searing assessment of the man.
    With Joe Biden’s own audacious New Deal, the democratic left rediscovers its soul, writes Will Hutton.
    Arwa Mahdawi explains how the sleazy Matt Gaetz saga grows ever more disturbing. His photo should be enough to convince you.
    “Arsehole of the Week” nomination goes to this wedding photographer.

    Cartoon Corner

    Peter Broelman

    Michael Leunig

    Glen Le Lievre

    Alan Moir

    Mark Knight

    John Spooner

    Joe Benke

    From the US

  12. frednk,
    I read recently that the Trump Administration had to provide $628 million to a company in the US to tool up to produce mRNA vaccines.

    Maybe Morrison might do it if they were a LNP linked firm. 😉

  13. LVT
    I think we can assume the fix is in
    Gerard Hayes, the reformer we have to have.

    Really, the NSW Right really has got to the bottom of the barrel if Hayes is going to be the leader

  14. It is never good news when Barnaby Joyce’s name is trending on Twitter.

    Michael West reports that Barnaby Joyce signed off on an $80M purchase price for water rights held by Angus Taylor’s family while other similar entitlements had been valued at zero.

    Has there ever been a more corrupt Federal cabinet in Australian political history than the current one? And why do we only discover things like this years later? Do we not have an Auditor General?

  15. The article by Stephen Hamilton and Richard Holden is a killer driller! It pins Morrison and his absurd homilies and Hunt and his Panglossian scenarios to the board!

  16. I think given that the fix is in, the bar will be set much higher for Jodi.
    The margin was about 5% last time, given the scandal that has caused the by-election anything less will be a loss.

    My prediction at this stage an easy win for BCEffin Fun on the back of one nation preferences

  17. Adam Creighton, the oh-so-well-informed-and-opinionated in and IPA sense now US correspondent for the SmearStralian decided to weigh his intellect in to the debate around Georgia tightening up voting rules by, in part, making photo ID mandatory.

    I was quick out of the box with a terse ‘Bullshit..’ comment, followed by more erudite and confused Aussies, wondering how could a Murdoch employee spread such blatant lies for political partisan purposes?

    So after a while – Creighton tweets this ‘mea culpa’

    ‘It’s not a legal requirement to show it, apparently.
    I’ve always shown mine so thought it was normal.

    In any case, if we’re going to need to show proof of a vaccine to enter a building, seems reasonable to require some ID to vote.’

  18. Absolute bs about Gerard Hayes, Oakeshott Country. What would you know? You’re just a bitter old man with an axe to grind against Labor at every opportunity.

  19. It is passing strange that it is a requirement that people show proof of current flu vaccination to get into an aged care facility but there is no sign that it will be required for Covid19, even for the carers.

  20. sprocket_,
    Good to see Adam Creighton’s level of research is, ‘I was that idiot who always showed their driver’s license when I voted, even though I didn’t need to’. 🙂

  21. As there have been no by-elections since Jodi became leader, whatever the result in Upper Hunter it will certainly be her best ever

  22. At this stage and given the low community transmission, BK, this is a function of availability. No good if you’ve effectively got no staff because they couldn’t get it ….

  23. Basically last time:

    Nats 34%
    SFF 22%
    ALP 28.5%
    Greens 5%

    So what was the flow of SFF preferences last time?

    Assuming Labor swaps preferences with the SFF that should do the trick you would think? Or does SFF have to beat Labor on primaries?

    The problem may be 28% is the rusted on Labor vote ?

    So many wonderful unknowns.

  24. Actually I have had quite a few dealings with Gerard Hayes and his extended family over the last 15 years both when I was a party member and during the last 9 years as a hospital administrator.

  25. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, April 5, 2021 at 8:02 am

    Absolute bs about Gerard Hayes, Oakeshott Country. What would you know? You’re just a bitter old man with an axe to grind against Labor at every opportunity.

    When I posted “in your dreams” he told me it is satire. Seems to be going on and on with his joke.

  26. Oakeshott Country says:
    Monday, April 5, 2021 at 8:11 am

    Actually I have had quite a few dealings with Gerard Hayes and his extended family over the last 15 years both when I was a party member and during the last 9 years as a hospital administrator.

    So cat has your number. Why such a bitter old man?

  27. I’ll take a guess and suggest that Adam Creighton doesn’t show his licence when he votes (never ever seen anyone do that) but given he was found out lying he tried to cover up with a hog wash excuse. He got caught out thinking he wouldn’t. Typical of the man.

    Think people are starting to wise up to those that just makeup shit to suit their agenda.

  28. Labor either runs dead – and throws it to BCEffin; OR

    Runs to win and doesn’t do preferences.

    The later would be more bold but more fatal for Jodes, the former seems like the easier win.

  29. Frednk
    My understanding is that what I saw initially as satire is about to become fact.
    I guess odder things have happened in NSW ALP but I have difficulty remembering one. Historically, perhaps when the Communist Party took over the party administration for 18 months in the early 1940s

  30. So what exactly has given you a bee in your bonnet about a former Intensive Care Paramedic and now Secretary of the HSU, Oakeshott Country? Is a man not allowed to have ambitions? Can he not seek to further the greater good on behalf of the Labor Party? All my dealings with him, as recently as last week, were entirely cordial and he came across as intelligent and well-intentioned.
    Do tell if you have anything concrete to tell us in the negative about him? Surely we deserve to know the basis of your continued allusions in that direction?

  31. BK @ #21 Monday, April 5th, 2021 – 7:58 am

    John Spooner ❓
    Well KayJay, it IS in The Australian!

    Aarrgghhh yep yep ❗ Along with various other items including


    The ABC’s struggling political chat-fest, Q+A, could be moved to a different timeslot within weeks, following disastrous ratings in the past month that has seen its viewership fall to the lowest point in the program’s 14-season history.

    The latest episode of the news and current affairs program on March 25 drew just 237,000, albeit a slight improvement on the previous week’s audience figure of 231,000. That’s less than half the number of viewers the show was drawing in March last year.

    Quite a bit more indicating a 50% drop in audience.

    Liberal senator Jim Molan last appeared on Q+A in February 2020 following the catastrophic bushfires, but said afterwards he would never return.

    During the controversial episode, Senator Molan said he wanted to keep an “open mind” about climate change.

    The following may be of interest ….

  32. Frednk
    Have you ever heard of Gerard Hayes outside this blog?
    Neither has 90% of the NSW Electorate but apparently he is leading an attempt at a Coup d’état in the NSW ALP

  33. This tweet from Dan Andrews.
    Looks like lars has a problem with comprehension.

    Dan Andrews
    I’m making steady progress and being diligent with my physio exercises. Also building up my walking and am up to about 18 minutes on my daily walk.

    If you’re giving, receiving, hunting, decorating or eating eggs today – enjoy.

  34. Given the Morrison government’s track record on vaccine procurement and distribution in Australia, how can it possibly arrange to adequately supply our Pacific neighbours?

    China winning Pacific vaccine diplomacy war

    Coronavirus live news: Australia is in a race against time to secure millions of COVID-19 jabs for the Pacific or risk a Chinese vaccine diplomacy victory.
    (Headline in Murdoch’s Oz)

  35. There is a certain branch stack associated with at least unscrupulous and possibly illegal behaviour that will no doubt become public should he become leader. But that could be considered ancient history or just one of the mandatory qualifications in the position description of NSWALP leader

    His advocacy for HSU members, is seen by many in the industry as not terribly effective despite, or perhaps because, him occasionally making outrageous threats. The members conditions have not improved since they got rid of Williamson et al.

  36. Wait a second C@t…
    Last week you said you didn’t know him and would ask people in the HSU about him
    Has he been going around getting support from party influemcers

  37. citizen @ #42 Monday, April 5th, 2021 – 6:33 am

    Given the Morrison government’s track record on vaccine procurement and distribution in Australia, how can it possibly arrange to adequately supply our Pacific neighbours?

    China winning Pacific vaccine diplomacy war

    Coronavirus live news: Australia is in a race against time to secure millions of COVID-19 jabs for the Pacific or risk a Chinese vaccine diplomacy victory.
    (Headline in Murdoch’s Oz)

    China is certainly ahead of the game.

    The Indonesian roll out is mainly the Chinese vaccine.

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