Easter eggs

Preselection jockeying for Andrew Laming’s seat of Bowman, a looming state by-election in NSW, and a post-mortem into yet another election defeat in the ACT.

The interruption of Easter means we’re not likely to see any opinion polls this week. A new post is wanted though, so I offer the following loose assemblage of news items. My own efforts have late have been consumed by my Tasmanian election guide, which is currently being buffed and polished ahead of publication later today.

Lydia Lynch of the Brisbane Times reports the executive of Queensland’s Liberal National Party has voted to reopen preselection nominations for Andrew Laming’s seat of Bowman, by a bare margin of 11 to 10, but for which the position would be assured for businesswoman Fran Ward, the only candidate to nominate against Andrew Laming when he still intended to run. The Australian reports that “conservative forces” were keen that this should happen to open the way for Henry Pike, communications adviser for the Property Council and unsuccessful candidate for Redlands at the October state election. The Brisbane Times report says the preselection looms as a three-way contest between Ward, Pike and barrister Maggie Forrest. Senator Amanda Stoker has ruled herself out, despite expectations she could use the seat to resolve a difficulty where she and James McGrath are in competition for the safe first and loseable third positions on the LNP Senate ticket, the second position being reserved to the Nationals.

• A by-election will be held in the New South Wales state seat of Upper Hunter following the resignation of Nationals member Michael Johnsen after he was accused of raping a sex worker. I will have a dedicated post and election guide up for the by-election hopefully later in the week. For what it’s worth, Sportsbet has Shooters Fishers and Farmers as favourites to win the seat, paying $1.50 compared with $3.25 for the Nationals and $8 for Labor.

• The Canberra Times reports on the findings of an internal review into the ACT Liberals’ sixth successive election defeat in October, finding more effort should have been made to win over “soft Greens voters” who might be persuaded by a pitch targeting the Greens’ “anti-small business bent” and “soft law and order policies”. The review was conducted by Grahame Morris, lobbyist and one-time chief-of-staff to John Howard, Vicki Dunne, recently retired Liberal MP, and Daniel Clode, the party’s campaign manager in 2016.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

476 comments on “Easter eggs”

Comments Page 2 of 10
1 2 3 10

  1. Oakeshott Country says:
    Monday, April 5, 2021 at 8:28 am

    Frednk
    Have you ever heard of Gerard Hayes outside this blog?
    Neither has 90% of the NSW Electorate but apparently he is leading an attempt at a Coup d’état in the NSW ALP

    No. An article in the Murdock press, 2GB and OC’s attempts to bootstrap it is all I have seen, Your in good company?
    Have you heard of his Coup d’état outside the Murdock press and 2GB?

  2. OC@8:22 am
    Stranger things have already happened. Although Campbell Newman was not LOP in QLD Parliament, he ran from outside and won the only election for LNP in last 35 years in a landslide(Borbridge did not get majority).

  3. frednk,
    Before you believe anything Oakeshott Country has to say, let me check with my sources. They are 100% more reliable than his.

    Again I point out that I find Oakeshott Country’s assertion of a ‘coup d’etat’ led by Gerard Hayes to be not only a physical impossibility, knowing how State Conference and the numbers work, and also knowing that the State Secretary is the former Secretary of the RTBU, so I find it passing strange to believe that Gerard Hayes and his coup d’etat soldiers from the HSU will surmount that bulwark and structural impediment. Maybe Oakeshott Country would be so kind as to let us in on the why’s and wherefores of how this putative coup d’etat is actually supposed to happen? In the real world.

  4. I mean it would be absolutely unimaginable for the Liberals, their supporters in the media and on this blog to try and hobble an up and coming outstanding potential MP for the ALP, wouldn’t it? 😉

  5. Frednk
    In the last 10 days:
    Gerard Hayes has
    1. Leaked a dodgy poll that shows Labor’s primary is the lowest it has been since 1904. He then publicly commented that this was due to poor leadership
    2. Withdrawn the HSU from the NSWALP with a loss of 250k to the party and commented that his members would not waste their money while the ALP has achieved nothing in the last 10 years of opposition.

    These are only the public things, from what C@t is implying he has also been backgrounding party members

    I think an attempted coup is on and the results in Upper Hunter may be the precipitant

  6. I know it’s irrelevant in the whole scheme of things, but I’ve just learned that Morrison’s dog is called “Buddy” and somehow that annoys me in someone who also follows an American invented ‘religion’, yet professes to love Australia. Sorry, I know I’m being a bit petty, but I’ve had a sleepless night.

  7. As far as ‘withdrawing the HSU from the ALP’, I find that passing strange as only last Monday Gerard Hayes was running the Pre National Conference National Unity zoom meeting, which I attended.

    I also have seen no mention of it in the msm. You would have thought such a cataclysmic action would have been widely reported.

    Could you please provide verifiable proof of your assertion to this end, Oakeshott Country?

  8. This story sums up all the problems of coastal developments and the spread of housing across the land, which in this case is a Ramsar wetland of international significance.

    [Mr McCauley says any future development needs to include a solid strategy for the control of stormwater.

    “The issue that we’re showing is what stormwater does, it’s a damaging commodity in a natural environment,” he said.

    “My experience is our stormwater is not managed, we are destroying the wetlands, we are in crisis and we are still trying to put more development here.”]

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-05/torquay-property-boom-puts-karaaf-wetlands-under-threat/100046260

  9. I know you have been unwell C@t and I hope you are improving but it was fairly well covered news:
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/major-union-breaks-away-from-nsw-labor-over-poor-performance-20210330-p57fbm.html

    To quote Hayes:

    The union’s boss, Gerard Hayes, said it could no longer justify giving money to Labor.

    “Our union is relentlessly member-focused. We no longer believe affiliation to NSW Labor represents value for money,” he said.

    Ms McKay’s office said she would not be commenting on the HSU’s decision.

    Mr Hayes said the union commissioned polling to test, among other things, support for Labor.

    “We were deeply disappointed to see support for Labor had plummeted so far that fewer than one-in-four people were prepared to give Labor their primary vote,” he said.

    “We felt it was in the public interest to release this polling to the media to spark the honest, transparent conversation needed to trigger a revival of Labor’s fortunes.”

    Mr Hayes said Ms McKay “responded with personal insults”.

    “We therefore have little faith that Labor is likely to improve its performance any time soon,” Mr Hayes said. “This decision was made democratically and after careful consideration.”

  10. I am not sure of the rules for replacing a leader now but I assume that it is possible for conference to call for a spill and the Administrative Committee, which includes Hayes brother amongst many others, can call a special conference.
    I did not know that Hayes was so influential in Centre-Unity. If that is the case Jodi is a dead duck

  11. People who have “the jab” and report “I’m fine” right afterwards need to wait a day or two and then report, as apparently it takes more than a day for the system to react in defence of the injection.

    How are you this morning, Cud Chewer?

  12. Lizzie
    All thanks to Libby Coker when she was the mayor of the Surf Coast Shire Council. Now she is the federal MP for Corangamite she does not give a shit. She was just happy to take the developers cash and the votes from the city slickers who have moved to her electorate.
    Henderson had no chance.

  13. OC I think under the new rules – you have to blast the leader out, ie make them resign.

    It’s usually the leaks that kills them.

    They’ll probably have people lined up to tell Jodie to go post upper hunter with an outreach effort to the Tele.

  14. So PB isn’t actually an Australian psephological blog for anyone and everyone.

    It is in fact a long day care centre for the moribund flotsam and rejects of the Labor party. At least something is keeping Labor’s used political hacks humoured in their retirement I guess.

    Not WB’s fault but reflects how moribund and useless Labor is. Can’t even come up with their own site to carp and complain about everyone else being the cause of all the worlds problems, particularly those bastard Greens.

    Anyone who thinks a contribution here would be in anyway directed at changing the moribund and fixated position of the cabal is even more delusional than they continue to show themselves to be.

    So Fitzy and Latham have really fired up the Labor base for the coming by-election. I think SFF are mostly f’k youse all when it comes to optional prefs in NSW.

    Fitzy and Latham really firing up the Labor base it seems.

    Elaine Schofield
    @Elaineschofiel9
    Joel Fitzgibbon is a traitor to his fellow Australians who DO CARE about the environment. What is the purpose of the game he is playing other than to show himself as an ignorant fool? Surely there are solutions other than joining the loonies from the right.

    Quote tweet
    Doug Cameron
    @DougCameron51

    Would be better if @fitzhunter supported Hunter communities by working to widen the economic base, attract new jobs, ensure funds for rehabilitation of mine sites and upgrading of TAFE and skills.
    Cuddling up to the Mining Council, the Nationals and One Nation doesn’t cut it Face vomiting twitter.com/fitzhunter/sta…

    Timothy D Looker OAM
    @TimLooker
    Joel Fitzgibbon is to climate science as Andrew Laming is to gender respect.
    @fitzhunter
    #auspol

    Quote Tweet
    Tony Windsor
    @TonyHWindsor

    Replying to @p_hannam
    No point in winning it then Joel .

  15. So where’s tedious bore lambasting everyone else for propping up of Chinese state coal interests in the Hunter then?

  16. ‘Quoll says:
    Monday, April 5, 2021 at 9:49 am

    So PB isn’t actually an Australian psephological blog for anyone and everyone.

    It is in fact a long day care centre for the Yappies.’

    Never a truer word was spoken.

  17. I repeat: Quoll, if the site is worthless, why do you come here?

    It always seems to disappoint you, and you don’t do anything to improve it.

    You could, for example, show us how we should be posting, in order to be up to standard.

    (If I go by your form so far, every post should begin with a gratuitous insult to all posters, then move on to how being on the blog is a waste of time, then throw in a couple of sentences about blind partisanship, then refer to something or other the Greens are doing which is perfect in all its aspects…)

  18. China Intends to Occupy More Disputed Areas, Philippines Says

    The presence of China’s “maritime militia” near a South China Sea reef shows Beijing’s intent to occupy more disputed areas, Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said in a statement on Sunday.

    China has “done this before” in other contested areas like Scarborough Shoal and is “brazenly violating Philippine sovereignty,” Lorenzana said. He was reacting to a statement from China’s embassy in Manila on Saturday, which described waters around the Whitsun Reef — where hundreds of Chinese vessels were spotted early last month — as “traditional fishing grounds” and “part of China’s Nansha Islands.”

    Lorenzana’s remarks signal a tougher stance from the Philippines government. It had initially issued a formal diplomatic protest to China over the matter, saying that the ships’ presence raised concerns on overfishing and safety of navigation. In a separate statement on Saturday, Lorenzana also refuted China’s earlier response that those vessels were sheltering from the wind, saying the the weather in the area has been good.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-04/china-intends-to-occupy-more-disputed-areas-philippines-says?srnd=premium-asia

  19. boerwar

    So, your definition of “Yappies” is “the moribund flotsam and rejects of the Labor party”?

    Never a truer word was spoken 🙂

  20. Ah that. Well if history is any guide, and the PSU disaffilliation from the NSW ALP is the most recent example I can think of, these things are not as cataclysmic, nor as pre-emptive of a coup d’etat as some may want us to believe.
    Usually the disaffected union has a log of claims of things they would like to see improve before they reaffiliate and then they are welcomed back into the fold.

    I suppose Labor’s performance under Jodi Mackay in the Upper Hunter by-election will be the catalyst for that. So far it’s looking pretty promising, all things considered.

  21. ‘Quoll says:
    Monday, April 5, 2021 at 9:49 am

    So PB isn’t actually an Australian psephological blog for anyone and everyone.

    It is in fact a long day care centre for the Yappies.’

    And for those who believe that yarns concerning the loose consistency of their bowel movements, in turn brought on by the nasty oral-anal habits of halfwits, vectored by the infectious kissing practices of their children are of fascinating interest to the rest of us (when a simple “I had crook gut” would do nicely).

  22. Something sprinkled on the corn flakes this morning, probably too much chocolate over Easter together with the fact that technology is changing at such at rate, all our opinions will quickly become redundant.
    Happy Easter Monday all!

  23. [Hundreds of feral horses were released into the Kosciuszko National Park over the past year, sparking criticism that government policy is undoing the benefits of programs to rein in the habitat-damaging animals.

    The Victorian and ACT governments have plans to shoot feral horses in their alpine areas, but over their borders in NSW the law bars culling and protects horse “heritage value”.

    One-third of the feral horses trapped in the park since July have been released back into the wild by the NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service (NPWS). In that time, 484 horses were removed and rehomed.

    Significantly, 279 mostly mares and foals were released from traps and allowed to continue breeding. There are an estimated 20,000 horses in the Australian Alps, and 14,000 in Kosciuszko alone. Twenty years ago, the figure was about 1500.]

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-excuse-government-releases-trapped-feral-horses-back-into-koscuiszko-20210402-p57g7s.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1617518333

  24. Bushfire Bill,
    No one but you appears overly concerned about it and no one but you keeps bringing it up with such florid language in order to emphasise your objection to it.

    Of course I reiterate that your own overtly graphic descriptions at length of some random’s travails with a gangrenous foot were all perfectly fine with you.

    This just proves what an intolerant hypocrite you have become, Bushfire Bill. Sad.

    Have a nice day. 🙂

  25. 75% of the time when the media , libs/nats and their supporters talkabout leadership change for Labor

    Thats when you know it normally ends up there is a change in the liberal party leadership whether its federal/state or territory

    Why its more likely Morrison and Gladys will be gone before any Labor leader

    Morrison has shown no leadership and he is a liar, corrupt and incompetent
    Gladys has shown no leadership and she is a liar, corrupt and incompetent

  26. Earlwood,
    This is one area where my current brain fog may be leading me astray but is there another Gerard I may be confusing him with?

  27. Thank god I didn’t attend the national conference zoom pre meeting chaired Gerard Hayes.

    This bloke, from day one of Jodie McKay’s leadership – where she comfortably secured over 60% of both the rank and file vote, but also that of her caucus colleagues – has backgrounder against her, plotted her down fall and generally shown contempt for party democracy, structures or basic loyalty. He’s the ‘senior Labor source’ that Alex Smith always quotes in one of her three monthly mentions of the fact there is an opposition in nsw that’s ‘just not cutting through’. Which is little wonder given that the Macquarie press gallery have all decided to run 100 positive Berijiklian stories interspaced with one negative Jodie story. Rinse and repeat. Whenever some outrageous liberal corruption is exposed, the smh give The Greens and One Nation a run before mentioning Labor, even though 9 times out of 10, it’s been labor’s hard work that brought the issue to a head. Hayes has been a willing participation in that paradigm.

    On top of that he’s taken his union out of NSW Labor. Unilaterally. Yet he still sits on the Administrative committee. In my view he should have been removed from Labor by the National Executive last week. Permanently.

  28. [Environment and health groups have fiercely criticised proposals to relax the regulation of chemicals and pesticides in Australia, saying they are “totally at odds” with public health and safety expectations.

    A “first principles” review by a panel of experts has recommended to the agriculture minister, David Littleproud, that many household chemicals and pesticides should be exempt from scrutiny by authorities, and that approvals for agricultural chemicals should be fast-tracked if they have been licensed by similar authorities overseas.

    The National Toxics Network and Public Health Association Australia said the draft report was a recipe for further deregulation that puts consumers at risk and undermines trust.

    The NTN said the panel’s mandate prioritised costs to industry over the environment, and raised questions over the industry links of its chair, Ken Matthews.

    Matthews was until very recently the chair of the Agricultural Biotechnology Council of Australia, whose members include the biggest producers, importers and users of pesticides, including CropLife Australia, AusBiotech and the National Farmers’ Federation.]

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/apr/04/plan-to-relax-australian-rules-for-chemicals-and-pesticides-attacked-by-environment-groups

  29. Okay, thanks for the background on Gerard Hayes, Earlwood. I concede as well.
    I’ll be at a BBQ on May Day where Jodi will be the guest so I am sure I will be brought up to date then.

  30. Chris Minns would be totally the wrong choice for NSW Opposition Leader. Even I know that!

    Anyway there are better women and Ryan Park who have a more deserving claim to the job. Should it ever come to it.


  31. Taylormade says:
    Monday, April 5, 2021 at 9:46 am

    Lizzie
    All thanks to Libby Coker when she was the mayor of the Surf Coast Shire Council. Now she is the federal MP for Corangamite she does not give a shit. She was just happy to take the developers cash and the votes from the city slickers who have moved to her electorate.
    Henderson had no chance.

    Libby Coker is good but I don’t think she single handily made the Surf Coast a rapidly development area, but if you want to give her credit, go for it.

    Your right, Henderson had no chance. Her campaigning was disgraceful; she has upset too many people. You don’t campaign to your base, you have to get 50% to win.

  32. I don’t know Hayes, but he was a NSW Frog * Prince. The Frog Princes (and they were always Princes, not Princesses – which were the Nurses) were as old skool misogynistic bullying arseholes as it was possible to be without the benefit of the Overprivileged Old-Boys Club entry ticket. The NSW HSU reflected this in spades. I’d run a mile before I kissed this particular Frog Prince.

    * In the patois of my long apprenticeship as the first-receiver of the very sick in Western Sydney EDs, “Frogs” were NSW Ambulance Paramedics – ’cause everyone they kissed croaked.

  33. Andrew_Earlwood @ #86 Monday, April 5th, 2021 – 10:46 am

    Thank god I didn’t attend the national conference zoom pre meeting chaired Gerard Hayes.

    This bloke, from day one of Jodie McKay’s leadership – where she comfortably secured over 60% of both the rank and file vote, but also that of her caucus colleagues – has backgrounder against her, plotted her down fall and generally shown contempt for party democracy, structures or basic loyalty. He’s the ‘senior Labor source’ that Alex Smith always quotes in one of her three monthly mentions of the fact there is an opposition in nsw that’s ‘just not cutting through’. Which is little wonder given that the Macquarie press gallery have all decided to run 100 positive Berijiklian stories interspaced with one negative Jodie story. Rinse and repeat. Whenever some outrageous liberal corruption is exposed, the smh give The Greens and One Nation a run before mentioning Labor, even though 9 times out of 10, it’s been labor’s hard work that brought the issue to a head. Hayes has been a willing participation in that paradigm.

    On top of that he’s taken his union out of NSW Labor. Unilaterally. Yet he still sits on the Administrative committee. In my view he should have been removed from Labor by the National Executive last week. Permanently.

    NSW Labor, as it is, is in an irreversible death spiral.

    How long before it gets acknowledged ?

    Is there anyone looking to re-build a workable structure and system ?

  34. As far as NSW is concerned, until the Liberal and National party corruption becomes acknowledged in the mainstream as a real problem then Labor has no chance.

  35. ‘rhwombat says:
    Monday, April 5, 2021 at 11:13 am

    * In the patois of my long apprenticeship as the first-receiver of the very sick in Western Sydney EDs, “Frogs” were NSW Ambulance Paramedics – ’cause everyone they kissed croaked.’

    After I stop laughing I think I’ll put that in the ‘too much information’ file.

  36. Hold up, is this Hayes person even in the NSW parliament? I’m assuming not, considering he heads a union. How’s he supposed to become party leader without even having a seat? Like, yeah, Campbell Newman did it, but people actually knew who Campbell Newman was.

Comments Page 2 of 10
1 2 3 10

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *