Newspoll: 50-50

Newspoll finds Scott Morrison’s commanding personal ratings improving still further, without doing anything to improve a seemingly precarious position on voting intention.

As brought to you by The Australian, Newspoll maintains its sedentary ways in its latest poll, which repeats the previous result three weeks ago in recording a dead head on two-party preferred. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 37%, while the Coalition on 42%, the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 3% are all unchanged. Despite a seemingly difficult week for Scott Morrison, he gains one on approval to 64% and drops one on disapproval to 32% and widens his lead as preferred prime minister from 57-29 to 61-26, as Anthony Albanese drops three on approval to 38% and rises two on disapproval to 45%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1504.

There was also a poll on Friday from Roy Morgan, which sometimes publishes its regular federal voting intention polling and sometimes doesn’t. In this case Labor was credited with a bare lead of 50.5-49.5, from primary votes of Coalition 40%, Labor 34.5%, the Greens 13% and One Nation 3.5%. The poll was conducted over the previous two weekends online and by phone from a sample of 2824.

Between Newspoll, Roy Morgan and Essential Research, there are now three pollsters who rate the situation as steady of with Labor fractionally ahead. This is reflected in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, now updated with the above results on both the voting intention and leadership rating trends, which has Labor edging ahead to a 50.2-49.8 lead.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,113 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. As is the Court’s want, no reason for the delay was provided. One can only deduce that the Court didn’t want to add a political dimension during the election.

    Um, that WAS the reason. Cy Vance came to an agreement with the SCOTUS in October last year to wait 3 months until after the election and Inauguration of the new President before the SCOTUS brought their decision down. Trump may have won and then it would have been moot.

  2. a r @ #501 Tuesday, February 23rd, 2021 – 8:50 pm

    Mavis @ #947 Tuesday, February 23rd, 2021 – 7:40 pm

    One particular issue Vance is looking into is “Stormy Daniel’s” hush payment, but her defamation suit against Trump has been rejected by the Court.

    Those two matters have nothing to do with each other.

    Exactly. The matter re Stormy Daniels, as Michael Cohen has explained, is in relation to violation of Campaign Finance laws. She was paid with money raised by Trump from his campaign coffers.

  3. “Lizziesays:
    Tuesday, February 23, 2021 at 7:21 pm
    Oh really ABC !

    Rogue importers.
    Not rouge importers.”

    After almost 8 years of Coalition government, the “bleu” ABC is starting to see “rouge” everywhere!

  4. The more PHON and phony Palmer are down…. the better the chances for the ALP (keep an eye on Qld).

    ScuMo is preferred PM?…. This means that he will be returned to the seat of Cook… Is that enough to win an election?

  5. [‘Um, that WAS the reason. Cy Vance came to an agreement with the SCOTUS in October last year to wait 3 months until after the election and Inauguration of the new President before the SCOTUS brought their decision down. Trump may have won and then it’]

    I was unaware of that.

  6. “Aqualungsays:
    Tuesday, February 23, 2021 at 3:06 pm
    The vast majority of the people who live in Hughes are the children of the people who live or lived in Cook.
    Hughes is rock solid liberal.”…

    One of the many interesting things to watch at the coming Federal election is going to be how many “rock solid” Liberal (and Nationals and LNP) seats may fall into the hands of moderate Independents with a Liberal background (hence not scary to the voters). Those independents will benefit from the preferences (first or second) of ALP and Greens voters, plus the votes of moderate Liberals who have had enough…. For sure, that’s not going to affect every seat, but it can affect those seats that have a better educated population.

  7. On the updated graphs:

    From the perspectives of both the primary vote and the 2PP, it looks like that the effect of the political shot-in-the-arm that ScuMo and the Coalition received in about mid-2020 is fading away….

    It seems that what ScuMo needs is more than just an anti-Covid vaccine….

  8. I suspect that Reynold’s may have some difficulty with questions at the NPC tomorrow:

    [‘Defence Minister Linda Reynolds has given conflicting accounts of meetings with police relating to her former staffer’s allegations of sexual assault by a colleague.

    The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age have established the identity of the alleged rapist but have chosen not to name him on legal grounds.

    The man has checked himself into a private clinic after being stood aside from his job at a large corporation.

    Senator Reynolds has faced repeated questions in Parliament from Labor and the Greens about what she knew and when, and who else she told about the allegations. Last week, a number of Liberal MPs questioned the minister’s handling of the rape claim.

    She revealed for the first time on Tuesday she discussed the matter with then-special minister of state Alex Hawke, but said “to the best of my recollection” they spoke about the accused man, who was sacked for the security breach, not about Ms Higgins.’]

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/minister-changes-story-on-police-meeting-over-alleged-rape-20210223-p574zc.html

  9. The man accused of raping former Liberal staffer Brittany Higgins was sacked for a security breach that included him gaining access to a minister’s office on false pretence and for failing to behave “honestly, with integrity”.

    Government sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to publicly discuss staffing issues, said this was not the first security issue flagged in relation to the former male Adviser, who is alleged to have raped Ms Higgins in then defence industry minister Linda Reynolds’s office on March 23, 2019, and indicated more serious offences had occurred within a short time frame.

    The Australian understands one of the most serious security breaches a staffer can commit is leaving out highly classified documents in a minister’s office or removing them from the office. Scott Morrison on Tuesday confirmed the alleged perpetrator’s access pass for Parliament House was cancelled on March 27, four days after the alleged rape.

    “DPS cancelled the APH access pass of the male staff member in question on the 27th of March, 2019, and no pass — either staff or sponsored — has been issued to this person since that time,” the Prime Minister said.

    It is unclear whether the ­alleged perpetrator had lobbyist meetings or communications with ministers, their staff or department officials at Parliament House after he lost his job.

    Asked to clarify why the man’s employment had been terminated, Mr Morrison said: “It was because of a security breach. That was the reason for it. As I understand it, it related to the entry into those premises.”

    He said he understood it was because the staffer was in the ­office after hours.

    The government says the former staffer’s employment was terminated before Senator Reynolds discovered an allegation of rape had been made against him.

    Under pressure for a week over the government’s handling of the incident, Senator Reynolds, now Defence Minister, was forced to retract comments she made to parliament on Tuesday in which she said she had twice met with the Australian Federal Police following the alleged rape.

  10. ‘… because the staffer was in the ­office after hours.’

    Sorry, what? I’ve had lots of friends who worked in Fed Parliament.

    There’s no such thing as ‘after hours’ – as we all know, Parliament itself can sit well into the night.

  11. I’d be surprised if there were any more independents elected next time.
    The grassroots movement in Hughes will probably wither. They wanted to get rid of Kelly, he has gone and they can now safely go back to voting Liberal.
    independents usually emerge because the local LNP member or candidate is toxic.
    Mirabella and Abbott the notable examples.
    Sharkie won’t have a Downer on the ballot paper in Mayo this time.
    The Libs will spend big to dislodge Stegall.

  12. HT Sokratease

    Job Keeper, Job Seeker, Job Maker/Job Taker, Job Faker…..Job Dobber.

    *New Phone Hotline introduced
    *Dob A Job … Press *1
    *Dob a Rapist… Press *2
    *Dob a Rooter… Press *3
    *Dob a Rorter … Press *4
    *Dob a Hipocrite.. Press *5

  13. There’s a whole series of 20-30 minute You Tubes on the Apollo guidance computer.

    Some retired NASA guy bought one at an electro-scrap sale. He got in touch with a mad Frenchman who was into tech archeology. The Frenchman in turn introduced the new owner to a genius IT tinkerer whose team rebuilt the whole thing over a period of months, including sourcing spare parts and performing surgery, down to individual ROM bit level. In the process he disassembled the entire guidance computer’s machine level code and then wrote a 100% emulator to test it all.

    Several episodes, starting here: https://youtu.be/2KSahAoOLdU

    And they DID get it fully operational, complete with a full-on simulator (a la Flight Simulator) so the pilot could look out the (virtual) window as he brought the LEM down onto the Moon.

    Amazing stuff, if you’re into that kind of thing (which I am).

  14. Under pressure for a week over the government’s handling of the incident, Senator Reynolds, now Defence Minister, was forced to retract comments she made to parliament on Tuesday in which she said she had twice met with the Australian Federal Police following the alleged rape.

    Sooooo she admits she lied to parliament last week?

    I know Morrison’s lot don’t care about such things any more but I didn’t think it had become as blatant as to admit to it like this!

  15. I’m not sure this will mean much though it may give the perception that the Morrison Government’s floundering a little. But Morrison will nearly always be able to rely on
    on at least the Mad Hatter:

    [‘Outspoken federal MP Craig Kelly warns he could block any new policy the Morrison government did not take to the last election, potentially throwing the Coalition’s ability to pass new laws into disarray following his shock defection from the Liberal Party to the crossbench on Tuesday.

    Mr Kelly also promised to continue with his fierce criticising of medical experts and authorities for blocking disproven medical coronavirus treatments after he stunned his colleagues and blindsided Prime Minister Scott Morrison with his decision to quit the party.

    Craig Kelly says he will vote for policies the Coalition took to the election but he will make up his own mind on other policies.

    While offering his continued support to the government on motions of confidence and appropriation or budget votes, Mr Kelly warned he would vote against any attempt to legislate a net zero emissions target by 2050 and consider any energy issues on merit.’]

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voting-on-my-conscience-craig-kelly-could-block-new-morrison-government-policies-20210223-p5755p.html

  16. Now this would be quite entertaining, if true.

    Stephen Koukoulas
    @TheKouk
    ·
    35m
    I would note that the Everald is one of the most connected, non partisan people going around. While we sometimes disagree on policy issues, I downplay his insights at my peril.
    Quote Tweet
    EVERALD COMPTON
    @EVERALDATLARGE
    · 4h
    My friends in Parliament tell me that #CraigKelly meeting with #Barnaby was to create new #conservative party led by Barnaby. They will be joined by Christensen and Canavan and will sit on cross bench. #Morrison will lead minority government. Happy days.
    EVERALD COMPTON
    @EVERALDATLARGE
    ·
    4h
    My friends in Parliament tell me that #CraigKelly meeting with #Barnaby was to create new #conservative party led by Barnaby. They will be joined by Christensen and Canavan and will sit on cross bench. #Morrison will lead minority government. Happy days.

  17. Entertaining to be sure. Any suggestions what they might name themselves? Right wing themes are straight forward.
    * Australia First Party
    * Country First Party
    * Save Australia Party
    * Australian Patriots Party
    * All Australia Party
    ??
    Would Clive get a look in?

  18. C@t,
    Those are all good names.

    Their motto “When you’re a bloke you don’t need to be woke”

    I really hope this happens. It would create what I hope to be destructive interference with One Nations market share.

  19. A couple of questions that come to mine on the JobSeeker rise are:

    How much would have the normal indexed rise been?

    and

    Is this amount included in the announced rise?

  20. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/24/renewable-energy-could-render-five-of-australias-remaining-coal-plants-unviable-by-2025

    The two groups found solar and wind plants built between 2018 and 2025 would add 70,000 gigawatt hours of new electricity supply – equivalent to more than a third of what is currently used across the national grid each year.

    They estimated renewable energy would make up 40% and 50% of electricity by 2025. It would force output from coal and gas-fired power stations to fall by 28% and 78% respectively over the seven years.

    The report said at least one coal plant was likely to shut earlier than planned in addition to the scheduled closure of Liddell power station, in the Hunter Valley, in 2023.

    Johanna Bowyer, from Ieefa, said coal and gas would be displaced because the fuel for wind and solar energy is free, and renewable energy farms could typically sell their electricity on the market at prices “close to zero”.

    Tristan Edis, director with Green Energy Markets, said the “tidal wave” of new clean electricity was much greater than what government authorities or market analysts contemplated just two years ago.

    It meant the “days of baseload electricity are over”, he said.

    “It’s been cleared out of town by solar,” he said. “We need a different type of technology that can fill the gap, and duck and weave to give what we need around solar.”

    The findings mirror those from other electricity market experts, including Kerry Schott, the chair of the Energy Security Board, who told Guardian Australia last year coal plants were making little money and were likely to shut sooner than planned.

  21. Tiger Woods car crash and 2 broken legs.

    According to the department’s Twitter account, the vehicle sustained “major damage” in the accident, which took place at 7:12 a.m. Woods was the only occupant of the car, and was extricated via the jaws of life. He was taken to a nearby hospital.

  22. Brown coal plants in the La Trobe Valley have a less than ten year life remaining on economic grounds, regardless of climate change. Now is the time to be building renewables. Also, Labor should take a coal industry restructuring / exit package for workers to the next national and Vic State elections. This will happen without a carbon price.
    https://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/under-pressure-coal-fired-power-plants-feel-the-heat-from-renewables-20210222-p574pk.html

  23. We face our worst foreign policy crisis since Federation. We face our worst, and rapidly deteriorating security crisis since 1939.

    What do we have? A trade punishment war. And we have ageing subs and ageing frigates, and $135 billion worth of government contract cock ups.

    Not only the most corrupt government since Federation. The most incompetent government since Federation.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-24/finance-department-investigation-work-health-safety-craig-kelly/13184948

  24. ‘Socrates says:
    Wednesday, February 24, 2021 at 7:07 am

    Brown coal plants in the La Trobe Valley have a less than ten year life remaining on economic grounds, regardless of climate change. Now is the time to be building renewables. Also, Labor should take a coal industry restructuring / exit package for workers to the next national and Vic State elections. This will happen without a carbon price.’

    We can rely on the Coalition and the Greens to talk as much as possible about coal. Labor should say as little about coal as possible. Why lead with the chin?

    Should Labor happen to be in government when the coal plants shut then Labor can demand that fossil fuel companies do the right thing by their erstwhile work forces.

  25. Isn’t it time that Albo’s Labor took a stand and refused to pass the cruel, destructive jobseeker legislation, which is already criticised as bad for the economy?

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