Kelly’s zeroes

Mutterings about the security of Craig Kelly’s tenure, a federal LNP vacancy in regional Queensland, and some minor state poll findings from Western Australia.

News remains thin on the ground over the summer holiday period, although we may possibly hopefully see the polling cycle crank up again as of next week. Two pieces of federal preselection news to relate:

• A report in The Australian today raises further doubts about the security of Craig Kelly’s preselection in Hughes – not for the reasons you would hope, but because he has failed to raise any campaign funding for head office since July 2019, according to leaked party documents. He is not alone in this distinction, however, with Farrer MP Sussan Ley, Robertson MP Lucy Wicks and Lindsay MP Melissa McIntosh likewise having come up empty. Kelly was saved from preselection challenges by prime ministerial intervention before both the 2016 and 2019 elections, and a Liberal source cited in The Australian says “there’s no appetite in the party to save him a third time”.

• Ken O’Dowd, who has held the central Queensland seat of Flynn for the Nationals since 2010, announced on January 5 that he will retire at the next election. Queensland Country Life reports that Colin Boyce, who holds the partly corresponding seat of Callide in the state parliament, will contest the preselection. The report quotes Boyce complaining about the failure of David Crisafulli, who replaced Deb Frecklington as Liberal National Party leader after the October state election, to have promoted him to the front bench. It also suggests he may face competition in Flynn from Gladstone councillor Glenn Churchill, who was the party’s unsuccessful candidate for the seat in 2007 and challenged O’Dowd for preselection ahead of the 2019 election.

With the Western Australian election now two months away, two bits of data have emerged from a Painted Dog Research poll conducted for The West Australian in mid-December, which as always do not encompass voting intention:

• Three weeks after Zak Kirkup replaced Liza Harvey as Liberal leader in late November, the poll found him with a 19% approval and 14% disapproval rating. While this compares favourably with Harvey’s 10% and 37% from September, but is obviously remarkably mostly for the 67% uncommitted rating. The poll also found 36% saying Kirkup would be a better leader than Harvey and 11% saying otherwise, with 53% uncommitted.

• With Ben Wyatt to bow out at the election, the poll found 21% favouring Health Minister Roger Cook to succeed him as Treasurer, with Rita Saffioti on 9%, Bill Johnston on 8%, “someone else” on 13% and 49% uncommitted.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,340 comments on “Kelly’s zeroes”

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  1. Sprocket

    “ The dating app Bumble has temporarily removed its political-identification filter to prevent “misuse.”
    The move came after women tweeted about using the filter to find conservatives who took part in the Capitol breach and passing on evidence to law enforcement.
    Users started to notice the political filter had been removed on Thursday, and people on Twitter criticised Bumble as appearing to protect the insurrectionists.
    Bumble added that it removed the accounts of people who had been “confirmed as participants in the attack of the US Capitol.”

    Apart from the law enforcement aspects of this story, it confirms once again what a large proportion of the Qnon and far right groups are angry single men (of varying ages) with no female partner. They are often misogynists as well. Sane women presumably run a mile from these guys once they realise what a deluded world view they have.

  3. Well, at least one of the Murdoch clan has scruples:

    [‘Rupert Murdoch’s son James has condemned American media outlets for unleashing “profound damage” on the United States and being complicit in the events that led to the pro-Trump insurgency in Washington earlier this month.

    The junior Murdoch, who left his father’s News Corporation last year citing disagreements over editorial content, said the storming of the Capitol was “proof positive that what we thought was dangerous is indeed very, very much so”.

    “Those outlets that propagate lies to their audience have unleashed insidious and uncontrollable forces that will be with us for years,” he told London’s Financial Times newspaper. “I hope that those people who didn’t think it was that dangerous now understand, and that they stop.”]

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/james-murdoch-condemns-profound-damage-wreaked-by-us-news-media-20210116-p56ukn.html

  7. This is not very Christian of them:

    [“Over the last 72 hours, I have received multiple death threats and thousands upon thousands of emails from Christians saying the nastiest and most vulgar things I have ever heard toward my family and ministry. I have been labeled a coward, sellout, a traitor to the Holy Spirit, and cussed out at least 500 times.”]

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/14/opinion/trump-evangelicals.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

  9. The Crackpot Conspiracy still going on…. Pence may regret no invoking the 25th Amendment.

    ‘My Pillow founder and Trump supporter Mike Lindell was photographed entering the West Wing of the White House on Friday, carrying notes which seemed to advocate the imposition of martial law.
    …..
    Lindell has risen to prominence among allies urging the president on in his attempts to deny reality. On his Facebook page on Friday, the mustachioed seller of sleep aids wrote: “Keep the faith everyone! We will have our president Donald Trump 4 more years!’

    Later a Washington Post photographer caught images of Lindell in which parts of notes he carried were visible. Among visible text were the words “Insurrection Act now as a result of the assault on the”, “martial law if necessary” and “Move Kash Patel to CIA Acting”.
    ….

    The notes seemed to advocate naming an attorney named Colon, described as “up to speed on election issues” and seemingly based at “Fort Mead”, to a national security role. A current LinkedIn page indicates that a Frank Colon is currently senior attorney-cyber operations for the 780th Military Intelligence Brigade, based at Fort Meade, Maryland.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/15/mike-lindell-mypillow-trump-white-house-martial-law?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1610754997

  10. More a case of clutching at straws:

    [‘A close adviser of Donald Trump was spotted at the White House on Friday clutching a piece of paper appearing to advocate for “martial law if necessary”.

    A close adviser to US President Donald Trump has been spotted at the White House clutching a piece of paper that appeared to urge the most powerful man in the world to invoke “martial law”.

    Michael Lindell, the founder and CEO of MyPillow, was photographed outside the West Wing clutching a typed memo, partially concealed by a fold. However, some of what was written on the memo was visible.
    “…nsurrection…’]

    https://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/us-politics/donald-trumps-approval-rating-collapses-in-multiple-polls-after-capitol-riot-impeachment/live-coverage/80fcaea40b1c82be298bd61eaacb4e73

  11. Ben Eltham
    @beneltham
    ·
    19h
    Australia Council board member Rebecca Weisser is pretty confident that history will recognise Trump’s greatness, that the storming of the Capitol was no big deal (and also that Hydroxychloroquine will cure COVID)

    How in the world did that foolish Weisser woman get on to a government board?
    Oh, sorry, she’s married to Nic Cater. Of course.
    “Nick Cater is executive director of the Menzies Research Centre and a columnist with The Australian.”

  12. Wishful thinking from our resident sinophobe: C@t in response to the article that dave-

    “ “China doesn’t have the domestic capability to provide the necessary components so they’re very much reliant on U.S. components,” Yusof said.

    I said yesterday that China better be careful what it wishes for with its takeover of Hong Kong and brutal crackdown on the freedom fighters. China is more reliant on the West for its expansionist plans than they care to let on.

    _____

    For the past 5 years China has been engaged in a national effort to realign its supply chains of critical components and materials to domestic providers. It is well prepared to suffer bumps along the way – like the situation facing its steel manufacturers at the moment because the CCP refuses to allow ships to unload Australian coking coal.

    Most of these bumps are purely temporary. The PLA/CCP grip is strong enough for the Chinese to endure them.

    In the medium term China is transforming its economy to one focused on domestic growth and not dependent on foreign trade. There is tremendous scope for that strategy to work. While many people have emerged into the middle class most of China’s 1.4 billion have not, yet the desire is there. Domestic consumption will fuel China for decades. Much like domestic growth – and not trade – fuelled America’s rise as the global economic superpower it became in the early 20th century.

    Until now, Chinese civil aviation has brought foreign made jet engines (mainly from America), but they also make their own jet engines – mainly for military purposes. It will not be long before they reverse engineer all the civil aviation components they need, including engines, given the knowledge base they have already. Not to mention the heft in their economy.

    The whole, ‘they’ll be sorry’ and ‘we can/should stand up to them’ narrative completely misses the play. In short it is both stupid and wrong and is little more than a projection of paranoid America which is literally clueless over China. Not to mention our not so useful fools like John Garnaut, Malcolm Turnbull (it’s all about 5G, apparently) and of course, gold medal idiot Scotty from marketing.

  13. [‘Despite the insurrection at the Capitol last Wednesday, heroic Officer Eugene Goodman was able to lure a group of rioters directly away from the entrance to the chambers that led to the Senate floor.

    His quick thinking potentially saved many lives.’]

    Goodman deserves a medal.

  15. Morrison has been unmasked,” began Drysdale [former adviser to Malcolm Fraser and Jeff Kennett] “His refusal to openly condemn Trump’s behaviour and legacy is the deliberate act of a weak, spineless and character-free Prime Minister…

    Article linked by BK above: https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2021/01/16/atkins-scott-morrison-unmasked/

    Not sure that it’s cowardice. Morrison doesn’t condemn Trump because he generally approves of what Trump has done over the last four yours. Sure, he probably thinks that business at the Capitol was unfortunate but hey, that’s just a blot on what he regards as an otherwise fine record.

  16. As the days count down –

    Manhattan DA expands criminal investigation into Trump Organization finances to include family compound in Westchester County

    (CNN) The Manhattan district attorney’s office has expanded its criminal investigation into the Trump Organization’s finances to include the family’s compound in Westchester County, according to lawyers and people familiar with the investigation.

    Prosecutors’ interest in the 212-acre property called Seven Springs is a significant widening of an investigation that began more than a year ago. It also draws closer to President Donald Trump’s son Eric Trump, executive vice president of the Trump Organization, who was directly involved in discussions about the property now under scrutiny, according to court filings.

    Prosecutors sent grand jury subpoenas within the past two months to town officials seeking documents and communications that officials had with the Trump Organization relating to development plans it considered for the sprawling family property.

    The criminal investigation poses a significant threat to Trump, his business and his family as he leaves the White House next week and will no longer have the shield of the presidency to delay or postpone lawsuits and investigations

    More –
    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/15/politics/manhattan-da-trump-organization-family-compound-westchester/index.html

  19. Steve777 @ #113 Saturday, January 16th, 2021 – 11:22 am

    Morrison has been unmasked,” began Drysdale [former adviser to Malcolm Fraser and Jeff Kennett] “His refusal to openly condemn Trump’s behaviour and legacy is the deliberate act of a weak, spineless and character-free Prime Minister…

    Article linked by BK above: https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2021/01/16/atkins-scott-morrison-unmasked/

    Not sure that it’s cowardice. Morrison doesn’t condemn Trump because he generally approves of what Trump has done over the last four yours. Sure, he probably thinks that business at the Capitol was unfortunate but hey, that’s just a blot on what he regards as an otherwise fine record.

    Amazing to think that it still hasn’t sunk in how radical Morrison is.

  21. Around the world, dark night skies filled with stars are increasingly being brightened by artificial light pollution.

    But in a move welcomed by stargazers, the West Australian Government has signalled it plans to treat its night sky as an asset and protect it from excessive lighting.

    The WA Planning Commission recently released a draft policy which is designed to help reduce light pollution, describing it as “an orange smog which obscures the night sky, as artificial and natural light reflect off moisture and dust particles in the sky”.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-16/wa-housing-developments-may-be-forced-to-adopt-light-policy/13061130

  22. Andrew_Earlwood
    The Chinese recently announced a 5 year plan to gain chip self sufficiency and parity if not dominance. They will be chucking a lazy US$ 1.4 trillion at the program.

  24. meher baba @ #2 Saturday, January 16th, 2021 – 4:07 am

    From the last thread:

    Taylormade “Terrible look for Andrews. Allowing in the tennis players from overseas whilst thousands of Victorians are still stranded interstate.

    Bushire Bill “Fuck YOU, Taylormade. If he’d banned them you’d have been whingeing even louder.”

    I think it’s important to try not to look at this issue through a partisan lens. Anyway, I assume the decision to proceed with the tennis was discussed at National Cabinet, so it’s not fair to place responsibility for it entirely on the shoulders of the Victorian Government.

    Focusing on the decision itself, rather than on who made it, I can only say that I find it quite incomprehensible.

    While large numbers of Victorian and other Australians are currently separated from their families for an indefinite period, we are allowing 1200 tennis players and their entourages to fly straight into Melbourne from some of the most disease-ridden locations on the planet.

    Just one person in Brisbane with a case of the British strain of the virus led to the shut down of the whole city for several days, and to most other states reflexively slamming their borders shut to Queensland. And I believe that, in future, people with this strain can expect to be in hotel quarantine for a month or more.

    But how many of the 1200 people coming her for the tennis might potentially have been exposed to this strain? Dozens, perhaps hundreds? But, far from being placed in indefinite quarantine, the players are going to be allowed out of their hotels several times a day to practice their tennis.

    It’s one thing to bring a few dozen international cricketers here, but 12oo people at once?

    I fear that Australian governments have collectively lost the plot on what they are trying to achieve with coronavirus. If we can merrily let something like the Australian Open ahead, well perhaps we could temper our cruelty to the Australian families trying to get home from various places around the world.

    And, while I find it very hard to agreed with Joel Fitzgibbon on anything, I think he was spot on the other day when he said that the Federal Government should take the lead on this issue through National Cabinet. I understand that it isn’t easy, and that a more active stance by the Feds will create a political shitstorm with leaders like McGowan and Andrews. But it desperately needs to happen. The Australian Open should not have been allowed to go ahead IMO, and perhaps it still could be stopped. The Andrews Government is justifiably copping criticism for the massive inconsistency of it all, but I don’t think they’re the only ones who should be held responsible.

    I find myself in complete agreement with Meher Baba here. I need a Bex and a lie-down.

    We shouldn’t be letting in any non resident before we’re repatriated the last Australian stranded overseas.

  33. 797k daily vaccination rate in the US. Augurs well for 1m a day to reach Biden’s goal of 100m by 30 April. That would make 33% of the total US a population vaccinated by the end of the first 100 days.

  34. I see parallels between trump and one K.Rudd.

    It’s interesting Labor gave Rudd life membership after he spent 3 years tearing down a Labor government.

    It’s likely the Republicans will similarly lionise Trump.

  35. Confessions @ #32 Saturday, January 16th, 2021 – 5:32 am

    Morning all.

    I was wondering what was happening with state polls, having done two polls in recent months about the performance of the McGowan government, and specific questions about our retiring state MP.

    The Labor candidate for Albany will win in a canter.

    Look at the actual campaigning behaviour of the Liberal Party. They’ve raised the white flag east of the freeway, and are actively defending seats which Labor has never held.

    Pencil in Labor gains in Dawsville (Kirkup), Geraldton, Hillaries, Scarborough (Harvey) and Darling Range, with only Churchlands and Cottosloe being considered safe by the Liberals. Labor control of the Legislative Council for the first time ever in WA is within reach.

    The Liberals will loose so badly in this election that its going to take a black swan event for 2025 to be in reach.

  37. See new Tweets
    Conversation
    Kyle Griffin
    @kylegriffin1
    Breaking NYT: Prosecutors in Georgia appear increasingly likely to open a criminal investigation of Trump over his attempts to overturn the results of the state’s 2020 election, an inquiry into offenses that would be beyond his federal pardon power.
    Atlanta Prosecutor Appears to Move Closer to Trump Inquiry
    The Fulton County district attorney is weighing an inquiry into possible election interference and is said to be considering hiring an outside counsel.
    nytimes.com

  38. “Concerns over the safety of hosting the Australian Open in Melbourne have been further raised after all passengers from a specially chartered flight for the tournament were forced into strict quarantine after two people on board tested positive for COVID”
    ________________
    Jesus bloody christ.
    The daily reporting for Victoria will need to have an additional segment.
    1.Quarantine
    2.Community
    3.Tennis Players.

  39. Some have described Tony Abbott as Australia’s Trump. There are some similarities but also important differences, for example Tony Abbott isn’t a psychopath.

  40. guytaur @ #83 Saturday, January 16th, 2021 – 7:23 am

    ICYMI

    @kylegriffin1 tweets

    Reuters: NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION SAYS IT HAS FILED PETITION IN COURT FOR BANKRUPTCY

    Sloppy on context as usual Guytar. US bankruptcy laws are considerably more liberal than Australian insolvency laws, and this should not be read to imply that the NRA are finished, as they would be in Australia. Bankruptcy in the US is easily used as a tactical move to avoid liability without actually having to change much.

  43. CNN’s reporting that Trump wants to go out with a big bang: a 21 gun salute on Jan, 20, set against the background of thousands dying daily from C.19 and
    Washington in lockdown. The megalomania continues unabated.

  45. trump will be irrelevant in 5 days time Mavis.

    joe manchin has already said he won’t support climate action. So that seems d.o.a under Biden.

    Getting on top of covid and an infrastructure package seems like reasonable goals to the mid terms.

  46. Taylormade @ #135 Saturday, January 16th, 2021 – 12:46 pm

    “Concerns over the safety of hosting the Australian Open in Melbourne have been further raised after all passengers from a specially chartered flight for the tournament were forced into strict quarantine after two people on board tested positive for COVID”
    ________________
    Jesus bloody christ.
    The daily reporting for Victoria will need to have an additional segment.
    1.Quarantine
    2.Community
    3.Tennis Players.

    4. Frustrated Libs.

  49. Liberal plan for the Australian Open:

    1. Is the Open going ahead?
    2. If “yes”, criticise Andrews Government for recklessness and blame it for any Covid breakout
    3. Else, criticise Andrews Government for being anti-sport, destroying the economy, destroying jobs, staying under the doona, being dictatorial…

  50. Jules Suzdaltsev
    @jules_su
    · Jan 12
    Since Trump’s almost out of office, I figured this would be a fun time to remind everyone of the weirdest & dumbest sh*t our failed dictator did in the last four years that we totally forgot about.

    Starting with a classic:

    STARING DIRECTLY INTO THE SUN DURING A SOLAR ECLIPSE

    Quite a long thread, embarrassing to read.

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