Miscellany: Morgan poll, Liberal Senate preselection, etc.

Two polls suggest the federal government’s COVID-19 dividend may be starting to wear a bit thin.

Today is the day of the federal by-election for the Queensland seat of Groom, which you can offer your thoughts on on this post in the apparently unlikely event that you have something specifically to say about it through the course of the day. This site will naturally be all over the count this evening, complete with a live results facility that is fully battle-tested so far as federal elections are concerned.

Other news of note:

• Roy Morgan had a result this week from the federal voting intention series it conducts regularly but publishes erratically. This one credited the Coalition with a slender two-party lead of 50.5-49.5, from primary votes of Coalition 42%, Labor 34%, Greens 12% and One Nation 4%. State breakdowns had the Coalition leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales, the reverse in Victoria, the Coalition leading 54.5-45.5 in Queensland, the Coalition leading 51-49 in Western Australia, and Labor leading 52.5-47.5 in South Australia. The poll was conducted online and by telephone over the two previous weekends from a sample of 2824.

• The Financial Review reports on JWS Research polling that shows 20% believe states should close borders to other states that have any active COVID-19 cases, “almost 60%” believe the same should happen if there are 25 active cases, and 75% say the same for 100 active cases. The report further relates that 60% of respondents rated the federal government’s handling of the virus positively, down six points from July, and that 87% of Western Australians, 82% of South Australians and 57% of Victorians (up seven since July) did likewise for their state goverments, with due caution for the small size of the relevant sub-samples. The poll was conducted from a sample of 1035 from last Friday to Sunday.

• John Ferguson of The Australian reports on Victorial Liberal Senate preselection contenders for the next election: Simon Frost, staffer to Josh Frydenberg and the party’s former state director (including at the time of its disastrous 2018 campaign); Roshena Campbell, a Melbourne lawyer; Greg Mirabella, Wangaratta farmer and husband of Sophie Mirabella; and Jess Wilson, policy director at the Business Council of Australia. This is likely to amount to a race for the second position on the ticket, with Sarah Henderson to be promoted to first and Scott Ryan not seeking another term. There is contention in the state branch over president Robert Clark’s reluctance to have preselections determined through party plebiscites, with critics accusing him of using COVID-19 to maintain control by the central administration, as it did before the last election. According to the report, “a statewide ballot would favour Mr Frost, while an administrative committee vote would favour those loyal to Mr Clark’s forces“.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

686 comments on “Miscellany: Morgan poll, Liberal Senate preselection, etc.”

Comments Page 10 of 14
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  1. meher baba @ #447 Sunday, November 29th, 2020 – 11:21 am

    The rather unappealing Murdoch journo on Insiders made a good point this morning in relation to Chris Bowen’s recent Jack Ferguson Memorial Lecture
    (of which a transcript can be found here https://www.chrisbowen.net/transcriptsspeeches/what-would-jack-think-australia-and-the-suburbs-in-2020-the-jack-ferguson-memorial-lecture/).

    On Election Night 2019, one would have been forgiven for thinking that Bowen’s aspirations to become leader of the party one of these days had been deep sixed. But a quiet and persistent rehabilitation process has been underway since that time.

    Sam Maiden was a substantial contributor to the process in her confusingly written but nevertheless interesting post-morten of Labor’s major fail, Party Animals. Maiden paints a picture of Bowen as largely being a helpless victim of a poor shadow cabinet process, in which the election platform quickly came to be dominated with a whole lot of policies put forward by Plibersek and other left factional types which were extremely expensive, but not likely to win a lot of votes. According to Maiden, poor old Bowen was hemmed in to a corner in which he was forced to retain electorally poisonous proposals such as the removal of imputation credits and further restrictions to the tax free status of superannuation in order to pay for these dud policies.

    (Maiden’s thesis doesn’t explain why Bowen decided to make his cringeworthy suggestion to an unhappy voter that, if they didn’t like Labor’s policies, they should vote Liberal, but never mind about that.)

    Bowen must now feel that enough time has passed to enable him to put his head above the parapet once more. His speech was pretty well done IMO. Bowen basically finessed the issue of the poisonous tax and retirement income policies he took to the last election: he referred to suburban voters as having “aspirations”, but then talked about a range of aspirations they might have other than that of accumulating wealth (which was the brick wall into which Labor crashed head-on in 2019). He focused on issues such as creating more jobs in manufacturing, the terrible workplace conditions provided the so-called “gig economy” and the need for more social and transport infrastructure: all issues on which the right and left wings of the ALP are able to find common cause.

    The sort of speech that an aspiring party leader might wish to make.

    Just saying.

    Good grief.

    Any thought of ‘rehabilitating’ the dolt is a stupid thought.

    Forget it !!

  3. If they have PR or citizenship they are as Aussie as I am and are entitled to come here but, as they also have other citizenships, their plight isn’t as dire as people with only Australian citizenship who have lost jobs and supports overseas and whose visas are expiring

  9. Oakeshott Country:

    Sunday, November 29, 2020 at 11:10 am

    [‘With regard to the returnees. My stepson, who is the concierge in one of the hotels, gets the impression that many of them have not spent a large part of their life in Australia.’]

    While I’m very happy to learn that your stepson’s gainfully employed, you seem to be sending less than subtle code re. returnees. Linked is an interesting message from the old Doc:

    https://www.naa.gov.au/learn/learning-resources/learning-resource-themes/society-and-culture/migration-and-multiculturalism/necessity-white-australia-policy

  10. The Federal Government’s aim in developing the ratings is to give shoppers an easy way to identify better choices of packaged and processed foods, something Agriculture Minister David Littleproud asserts is undermined by this decision.

    “What I don’t accept is the insanity of this decision, which really has no basis on nutritional value — it really just is mind-numbingly dumb,” he said.

    Key points:
    The trans-Tasman forum has lowered the health star rating of fresh, pure juice
    Federal Agriculture Minister David Littleproud was unable to persuade the forum against the move
    Devastated farmers fear people will drink less fresh juice, causing more fruit waste

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2020-11-28/fresh-australian-juice-rates-lower-than-diet-coke/12930562

  11. Rex Douglas:

    “Good grief.
    Any thought of ‘rehabilitating’ the dolt is a stupid thought.
    Forget it !!”

    Bowen is pretty good talent: IMO he did very well as Immigration Minister back in the day and much of his work as Shadow Treasurer was pretty good: the major exception being the catastrophic package of taxation and retirement income reforms.

    He hasn’t made a great deal of impact as Shadow Minister for Health, but that’s in keeping with Federal Labor’s strategy of making itself a small target in the COVID-19 debate and allowing its State Premiers to take the lead on the issue.

    So Bowen would have quite a lot going for him. But his ability to hold it all together under extreme pressure is perhaps the greatest concern: I specifically mentioned his ridiculous suggestion about voting Liberal because, to me, that was a sign of buckling under pressure. I think it was also a sign about the struggle he was having with trying to sell policies that he would personally rather have abandoned once the Libs switched from Turnbull to Morrison: which I repeatedly suggested at the time would most definitely have been the smart play.

    I continue to think that Labor should stick with Albo through the next election. IMO their only chance of winning will be if the Libs shoot themselves in the foot in a major way, and, in such a scenario, Albo’s credibility as a relatively safe pair of hands will be a vital asset.

    If Labor loses the next election, then Bowen will surely put his hat in the ring and his suitability for the job will be assessed by his peers. There aren’t a lot of obvious alternatives beyond jumping beyond the Boomers and Gen X to Jim Chalmers or Clare O’Neil. I certainly hope and trust that Marles is not seen as a serious contender.

  13. Fulvio Sammut:

    Sunday, November 29, 2020 at 11:28 am

    [‘Your two quotes alone clearly and unambiguously indicate Labor’s disapproval, I would have thought.’]

    The quotes I posted do not go “specifically” to the expense of
    Cormann’s jaunt; they skirt around it.

    _________________________________________

    Greensborough Growler:

    Sunday, November 29, 2020 at 11:27 am

    [‘Perhaps Birmo should just take Scotty snorkeling.’]

    The rips are very dangerous off Cheviot Beach.

  14. I have confidence in Victoria. Unfortunately I’m not a rich investor!

    Industry groups, unions, universities and sporting organisations are set to join forces to generate policy and project ideas that would power Victoria’s economic recovery and define the state’s post-pandemic legacy.

    Talks are under way involving the AFL, companies including KPMG, leading universities and Victoria’s peak union body to join the Victoria Summit, which is being organised by the Victorian Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

    The Andrews government welcomed the formation of the summit and VECCI chief executive Paul Guerra, backed by Trades Hall secretary Luke Hilakari, said it would harness the trust formed between government, business and unions during the pandemic.

    “It’ll be one of those ones where you drop the ego at the door and bright minds around the state come together,” Mr Guerra said, adding the group will collaborate on ideas for key growth sectors such as renewable energy, artificial intelligence and medical research.

    “We have the opportunity to create a bold vision for Victoria. Where does Victoria go and where will we be in 2030? … If we bring industry, universities, TAFEs, unions and government together, what can we create?”

    “Our legacy should be what we did coming out of COVID, not the virus itself.”

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/business-and-unions-to-power-state-s-recovery-through-victoria-summit-20201128-p56irx.html

  16. Labors pool of talent is very thin. That’s what happens when you run a closed shop only accessible to union sock puppets.

    If it’s talent they want, then they must open up the doors.

  17. John Hewson:
    “A carbon border tax is inevitable against climate laggards in trade deals. It will not be sufficient to just commit to to net zero by 2050. We will be judged by the substance of our policy response and we are a “stand out” laggard in this respect. Tragedy as we should be a Leader”

    Craig Emerson
    @DrCraigEmerson
    ·
    9m
    Yes
    @JohnRHewson
    a carbon border tax against climate laggards is indeed inevitable – by the EU & the Biden Administration. I can’t get any interest in this from the Government or the media. I first warned of it in 2010 when I was appointed Trade Minister.

  18. poroti

    When will we reach the point when chicken dances and curries are no longer enough to hide the deficiencies of the Morrison administration?

    I fear that the country may sleep through Christmas and wake up in worse shape than ever.

  21. lizzie
    Our trump card re trade with China is, we are told, iron ore. That sort of headline should ring some alarm bells. We already one lucky break in that regard with that Vale iron ore disaster in Brazil. Won’t happen again.

  23. meher:

    Sunday, November 29, 2020 at 11:42 am

    Labor will not take government if, as you say, ‘the Libs shoot themselves in the foot in a major way’. The Tories have stuffed up in major ways ad nauseam but Morrison’s still far ahead in the personal metrics, though the TPP is close. Labor will win the next election if it concentrates on Queensland, where there are some 8 seats at play, coupled with aping Abbott’s methods when he was Opposition Leader.

  24. Cud Chewer that Canberra Times paywall is frustrating.
    I read an article yesterday and it said I had 4 articles to go.
    I tried to read that article today and got the subscribe message and no access to anything. 9 media can be just as frustrating but if I reboot my phone it seems to clear it up more often than not. Not for the times though.

  25. Oakeshott Country:

    [‘Sunday, November 29, 2020 at 12:05 pm’]

    [‘You really must get on the plonk very early in the day]

    The Sun’s always over the yardarm in someplace in the world.

  26. lizzie @ #467 Sunday, November 29th, 2020 – 11:56 am

    John Hewson:
    “A carbon border tax is inevitable against climate laggards in trade deals. It will not be sufficient to just commit to to net zero by 2050. We will be judged by the substance of our policy response and we are a “stand out” laggard in this respect. Tragedy as we should be a Leader”

    Craig Emerson
    @DrCraigEmerson
    ·
    9m
    Yes
    @JohnRHewson
    a carbon border tax against climate laggards is indeed inevitable – by the EU & the Biden Administration. I can’t get any interest in this from the Government or the media. I first warned of it in 2010 when I was appointed Trade Minister.

    Indeed. I expect all our significant trading partners will eventually do so as well, if only as a means of defraying the costs of their own decarbonizing by passing some of those costs back to the source of the problem. Which is the laggard countries like us.

    Anyone – Labor or Liberal – who looks at this issue can see what is coming. And they can also see that Australia is one of nations that will suffer the most from any such punitive measures.

    We are likely to pay a heavy price for our short-sightedness. We were never going to be a world leader, but we could – and should – have been well ahead of the pack.

  28. Chris Bowen, numbers man for Kevin Rudd, tells voters to rack off, can’t effectively communicate his own policies – basically an all round liability. He should leave and go make money somewhere while he is young enough.

    However, he wears nice suits and should give Albo his tailors name.

  29. https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/how-the-making-of-brett-sutton-got-him-through-pandemic-and-kept-premier-s-faith-20201126-p56i6g.html

    Very interesting article this. Its about Brett Sutton, but it also says a lot about the small minded bureaucrats in DHHS.

    It had taken him a year to get permission from DHHS to establish a CHO Twitter account, he said, and another month to be allowed to use his own photo.

    Since then, the account has to some extent liberated him from the slow and cautious approval processes of departmental communications.

    On February 23, he tweeted that a pandemic was “very likely, if not inevitable”. That made him one of the first government officials in the world, and certainly the first in Australia, to say this. He told Croakey: “it caused some ructions and I copped some criticism for it”.

    In late March, the federal government’s deputy chief medical officer (now acting chief), Paul Kelly, described Sutton as a “dissenting view” on the Australian Health and Protection Principal Committee.

    Most CHOs were in favour of the federal government’s “proportional, scalable and sustainable approach”, said Kelly, but Sutton was tweeting #gohard #gofast, pushing Victoria into more urgent restrictions on public gatherings and more stringent lockdowns. “I’m being blunt again to save lives,” he tweeted.

    I think we owe him a lot of gratitude.

    I would also love to see the truth come out on how Victoria was pushed (or bullied) into prematurely easing restrictions in May – the underlying cause of the 2nd wave.

  31. “Bowen’s aspirations to become leader “…

    The only people talking about the ALP leadership, pointing out to Bowen one day, the other it’s Fitzgibbon, then it’s Shorten (again), Tanya…. the Hunchback of Notre Dame, Jack the Stripper…. Mickey Mouse or Donald Duck… are the Liberal party stormtroopers….

    Why would the Liberal party stormtroopers spend so much time in ALP leadership speculations?…. Perhaps because the only leadership that’s shaking is ScuMo’s?

  34. Mavis
    I contributed to a book that reviewed Eggleston’s defence of White Australia while being the country’s first ambassador to Nationalist China. I spent a long time going through his papers. How Evatt and those who followed him thought they could defend WAP while engaging Asia is a theme of the book.

    David Walker, Stranded Nation: White Australia in an Asian Region UWAP
    particularly pp 49-51
    As Eggleston wrote to Calwell: “Ethnic patterns are basic to a people’s mentality and a clash of culture is the most obstinate of all problems”

  35. CC

    I would also love to see the truth come out on how Victoria was pushed (or bullied) into prematurely easing restrictions in May – the underlying cause of the 2nd wave.

    _____________________________________

    It’s funny (not) how those most vehement and aggressive in trying to beat up Daniel Andrews for his ‘mistakes’ in the management of hotel quarantine and contact tracing are the very people who were most vehement and aggressive in pushing him and Victoria to ease up on restrictions. I’m thinking particularly of Frydenation, but there are many others beside – especially in the groupthink media.

  36. The Sydney Morning Herald
    @smh
    ·
    1h
    Trade Minister Simon Birmingham says Australia is now “actively discussing” the option of taking China to the international umpire – the World Trade Organisation – over its tariffs on barley

    Can’t think of anything else to do?

  37. Alpo @ #481 Sunday, November 29th, 2020 – 12:40 pm

    “Bowen’s aspirations to become leader “…

    The only people talking about the ALP leadership, pointing out to Bowen one day, the other it’s Fitzgibbon, then it’s Shorten (again), Tanya…. the Hunchback of Notre Dame, Jack the Stripper…. Mickey Mouse or Donald Duck… are the Liberal party stormtroopers….

    Why would the Liberal party stormtroopers spend so much time in ALP leadership speculations?…. Perhaps because the only leadership that’s shaking is ScuMo’s?

    The reason the ALP Leadership is attracting such comment is precisely because there is none.

  38. I still appreciate Chris Bowen trying to do something about the Health Star Ratings as Labor was going out the door (which the Liberals and the Big Grocers/Food Conglomerates then bastardised), also his comparative pricing measures, which I still consult on the shelf tags at the supermarket to this day.

  39. TPOF @ #520 Sunday, November 29th, 2020 – 12:46 pm

    CC

    I would also love to see the truth come out on how Victoria was pushed (or bullied) into prematurely easing restrictions in May – the underlying cause of the 2nd wave.

    _____________________________________

    It’s funny (not) how those most vehement and aggressive in trying to beat up Daniel Andrews for his ‘mistakes’ in the management of hotel quarantine and contact tracing are the very people who were most vehement and aggressive in pushing him and Victoria to ease up on restrictions. I’m thinking particularly of Frydenation, but there are many others beside – especially in the groupthink media.

    I bet Cruella de Credlin was behind a lot of that strategising.

  40. “What I don’t accept is the insanity of this decision, which really has no basis on nutritional value — it really just is mind-numbingly dumb,” he said.
    __________________________________

    Not insane at all! Indeed, long overdue. Fruit juice is just sugar with a few vitamins thrown in. If you want the health benefits from fruit, you have to eat the whole thing – especially the fibre in the solids – not just swallow the sugar quickly.

    I should add that it was telling from what Littleproud said, that his concern was not for the physical health of the nation, but the business health of his industry.

  41. COVID chickens coming home to roost:

    PRGuy
    @PRGuy17
    ·
    1h
    CAN’T GIVE IT AWAY: shoppers report supermarket staff pushing free Herald Sun with each purchase. Ex-subscribers report News Corp begging to negotiate free or heavily reduced deals to stay on. Victorians are fighting back after an incredible assault by Herald Sun on Victoria.

  42. Surely the point was that Vic Health didn’t realise that the genie was out of the bottle (in early May they thought they had good suppression and were relaxing restrictions despite the escape from quarantine ) and when they did realise the problem the government took too long to react

  43. Australia’s Tier 1 and Tier 2 emissions can very easily be reduced to net zero. This is already happening and it will accelerate whether or not there is a carbon price. The market advantages available to renewables ensure they will overwhelmingly replace fossil fuel usage well before 2050.

    Given this, any country that buys Australian exports – overwhelmingly, bulk commodities – that chose to impose a ‘carbon tariff’ on these products would only be increasing the costs of their raw materials. They would be taxing themselves. This would be an irrational choice by importing countries. It will therefore not happen in relation to bulk exports.

    Importers might use carbon pricing as an excuse to impose tariffs on Australian-origin manufactures. But these represent only a minuscule share of Australian output and an almost invisible share of world trade. It’s very difficult to see how this could make any difference whatsoever to carbon emission dynamics. Even so, protectionist impulses are never far from the surface and it’s certainly possible that those sentiments might result in the imposition of ‘carbon tariffs’, whether they were justified or not.

    It’s more likely that this issue will be sorted out multi-laterally, if only because the imposition of barriers to trans-national trade would result in the destruction of incomes in all economies.

  44. C@t

    One laugh I got from food labelling laws is a product I saw on a shelf in the US.

    Calories 0
    Fat 0
    Protein 0
    Carbohydrates 0

    It was, of course, a bottle of water.

  45. Oakeshott Country says:
    Sunday, November 29, 2020 at 12:56 pm
    Surely the point was that Vic Health didn’t realise that the genie was out of the bottle (in early May they thought they had good suppression and were relaxing restrictions despite the escape from quarantine ) and when they did realise the problem the government took too long to react

    ____________________________________

    No doubt there were a lot of mistakes made – and all of Australia has learnt from them. SA shows just how easy it is for the virus to escape quarantine without the hysteria over who decided to use private security when everyone was.

    The fact remains that as soon as a political opening showed up for the fascists they went in full bore and to hell with ‘we’re all in this together’. In Australia, as in the USA, the national interest will always run a distant second to political self-interest and the property interests of their mates.

  46. Not insane at all! Indeed, long overdue. Fruit juice is just sugar with a few vitamins thrown in. If you want the health benefits from fruit, you have to eat the whole thing – especially the fibre in the solids – not just swallow the sugar quickly.

    Apparently one apple juice box contains the equivalent of 8 apples, giving you an indication of the amount of fructose in the carton. And then there’s the preservatives and added sugar on top of that.

  47. Oakeshott Country:

    Sunday, November 29, 2020 at 12:46 pm

    Thanks. I’ll check it out. While the WAP was discarded by Gough in ’73 (replaced with multiculturalism), the fairly successful dog whistles of Howard show that it’s not dead and buried. I guess, though, we are overall a tolerant society.

  49. Maybe you should memorise something along these lines when the family gathers for Christmas this year?

    To My Older Relatives,

    I’m writing to let you know that I’m aware of what you think of me, either because you’ve told me during combustible room-clearing conversations, over terse cold war text exchanges, or in second-hand words passed through the people who now serve as the sole messengers between us.

    You believe I’ve changed.

    You think I’ve become radicalized by the Left, that I’m a bleeding-heart Liberal, that I’m an anti-Jesus, anti-American baby-killing heretic, determined to destroy the fabric of this nation with socialism, homosexuality, and wide-open borders.

    You think I’ve abandoned my faith and my family and you’re really disappointed with me—and I have to tell you that you’re partially responsible.

    You say that I’ve changed, and I guess I have: I’ve become the person you taught me to become when I was growing-up.

    I’ve become a person who is deeply offended by inequity,
    a person who looks out for the underdog,
    a person who finds the beauty in the diversity around me,
    a person who wants other people to have what I have,
    a person aware of how fortunate I am to live here,
    a person trying to love my neighbor as myself,
    a person who detests liars and predators and con-men.

    And the person that I’ve become, in large part because of the wisdom and compassion you poured into me as a child, can’t fathom as an adult how you’ve voted for Donald Trump twice, and how you still support him now.

    It’s unthinkable to that younger version of me that you would have embraced this man: his cruelty, his depravity, his petty, vengeful, unloving heart.

    That’s not the way you raised me and so whatever issues you have with me now, you need to understand:

    You made me this way.

    I’m really proud of the person I am today and I’m grateful for the time you spent with me; the lessons you taught me about seeing all people as inherently valuable,
    about being a person of your word,
    about telling the truth even when it’s costly,
    about admitting your mistakes,
    about apologizing,
    about valuing people over money,
    about how we treat people being what defines us.

    I was paying attention.
    I was listening.
    I believed you.
    I did what you told me to do and I became who you told me to become—and so now I care about the world and I despise evil and I live open-hearted and open-handed.

    And that’s why I’ve found myself standing here wondering how you’ve become someone I no longer recognize, how you’ve embraced the embodiment of the ugliness you warned me to avoid, how you stopped taking your own advice somewhere along the way.

    https://johnpavlovitz.com/2020/11/17/you-raised-me-to-be-a-good-person-then-you-voted-for-trump/

    Same same Morrison, I reckon.

  50. Just go with drinks that contain erythritol and Stevia instead of sugar. Erythritol is naturally produced by fermentation of starches in fruits and vegetables.

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