I had a paywalled article in Crikey yesterday that riffed off South Australian Opposition Leader Peter Malinauskas’s pointedly supportive approach to the state’s brief COVID-19 lockdown, and the explicit distinction he drew between his own approach and that of Michael O’Brien in Victoria. It was noted that Malinauskas clearly believes the general tenor of polling coming out of Victoria, even if the likes of Peta Credlin do not. This also afforded me the opportunity to highlight a clip from September in which Credlin and two Sky-after-dark colleagues brought their formidable perspicacity to bear on the likely impact of Queensland’s hard border policies on the looming state election.
Speaking of the which, both Antony Green and Kevin Bonham offer extremely detailed post-match reports on the Queensland election, in which both try their hand at estimating the statewide two-party preferred: Antony Green coming in at 53.2% for Labor, and Kevin Bonham making it 53.1%. This represents either a 1.8% or 1.9% swing to Labor compared with the 2017 election result of 51.3%, which was barely different from the 2015 result of 51.1%. Annastacia Palaszczuk can now claim the vanishingly rare distinction of having increased her party’s seat share at three successive elections. For further insights into how this came about, JWS Research has published full results of its post-election poll.
Elsewhere, Western Australia’s Liberal Party will today choose a new leader after the resignation on Sunday of Liza Harvey, who came to the job last June but has been politically crippled by COVID-19 — a no-win situation for the Liberals in the best of circumstances, but one made quite a lot worse than it needed to be by a response that was more Michael O’Brien than Peter Malinauskas. The two contenders are Zak Kirkup, 33-year-old member for the all too marginal seat of Dawesville in southern Mandurah, and Bateman MP Dean Nalder, who unsuccessfully challenged Colin Barnett’s leadership six months before the Liberals’ landslide defeat in March 2017. The West Australian reports that Zirkup has it all but stitched up, since he has the support of Harvey as well as key numbers men Peter Collier and Nick Goiran.
guytaur says:
Tuesday, November 24, 2020 at 12:29 pm
Briefly
A political leader that has Federal Parliament in its territory and you want to pretend he does not understand federal politics.
There’s no pretence about it. Barr would have no knowledge whatsoever of voter expectancy in Cowan, Canning, Burt, Pearce, Stirling, Durack or Forrest, nor of the seats Labor lost in 2019 in Queensland and Tasmania. He’s a doormat in Canberra. A Red doormat, but still a doormat.
He should tell the Greens to take a running jump. Compromise with them has only strengthened the Greens and harmed Labor.
The Age.
Almost 200,000 jobs have disappeared since the pandemic took hold in March, while another 100,000 people have left the job market altogether. The key ‘state final demand’ measure shows a $10 billion drop in economic activity has dragged the Victorian economy back to where it was in the March quarter of 2017.
________________
Would be good to have a split between March and then the 2nd wave directly related to the hotel quarantine debacle.
Firefox says:
Tuesday, November 24, 2020 at 12:28 pm
“This from one of the most partisan posters here.
I’ve criticised Labor frequently. I haven’t seen you criticise the Greens once.”
***
Yep, you’re damn right I’m partisan towards the Greens and the left. I know I’m a massive lefty and I do not shy away from that, in fact I am proud of it.
FF is a so-called massive lefty that campaigns for Trump. Their attachments might be heart-felt. They are also entirely self-gratifying and mis-directed. Their Party of choice is opposed to the exercise of power by working people. They are spoilers and urgers.
Guytaur –
The Greens voted against the legislation …..their website acknowledges that; why can’t you?
Quoll:
‘No-one is denying the CPRS was voted down because it was shit policy, cooked up to appease the fossil fuel lobby who have the major parties under their thumb for a few pieces of gold.’
Umm yes they are – and there would be a CPRS in place NOW. There has been continual denial that the Greens did not vote down the CPRS – you may have thought it was shit policy, but there would be a CPRS in place now.
Yes I agree Labor needs to improve it’s game on climate change no argument from me on that and I am pleased Fiztgibbon is off the front bench.
I believe Gillard and Rudd wanted to act against carbon pricing and you attacking Labor, which again I believe needs to improve its targets etc and I believe will, forgets that the Coalition want to do absolutely nothing and will be able to do so.
I am not blaming the Greens for what Labor is doing now, but history should be acknowledged othewise it will be repeated and we will have no carbon pricing in this country; is that what you want?
The agressive Labor v Green posting get’s us no where and nuance gets lost in the discussion. Discussion is needed not cheap shots like it was to appease the fossil fuel lobby. That is just wrong.
Cud
Biden can win the Senate.
Expect him and Obama on the Senate campaign trail.
Even if he doesn’t the new politics means a carbon price is likely to one of the few pieces of legislation McConnell will vote for.
Yes I don’t underestimate his radical obstruction. This is a key policy area Biden has embraced. Beaten only by Health due to Covid 19.
Taylormade @ #151 Tuesday, November 24th, 2020 – 12:38 pm
Only for Victorian Liberals who want to continue to exploit the pandemic for their own base and gross political ends.
Quoll
“No-one is denying the CPRS was voted down because it was shit policy, cooked up to appease the fossil fuel lobby who have the major parties under their thumb for a few pieces of gold.”
I’m denying that. The CPRS was imperfect, but politics is the art of the possible. It was something. The Greens would prefer to get 100% of nothing – which is ultimately what they got. Which brings me to this gem from Quoll….
“Who is denying that the most effective control of carbon pollution ever in Australia was from a the Labor-Greens govt of J Gillard?”
This policy was torn up by Abbott. So no matter how effective this policy WAS, it is now past tense. By rejection of the CPRS, the Greens gave us Abbott… who destroyed all action on climate change.
The Greens’ combination of political ineptitude and ideological purity has gotten us absolutely nowhere in dealing with climate change.
Scout
It’s time you and Labor get over it.
Stop whining you did not have more time.
Accept the Greens supported Labor’s carbon price.
It was not the Greens Prime Minister we have not had that in Australia.
‘blind partisanship”
An affliction found amongst a much larger sub set of posters, most likely.
Certainly not confined nor more prevalent in any one group.
Definitely boring.
OMG, we are supposed to take seriously the ravings of an unreconstructed rabid Greens supporter called Quoll who lives in Upper Bumcrack, NSW?
Yeah nah.
Go and do some work for the environment which you profess to love so dearly, Quoll, and stop stroking your ego and wasting our time here.
Firefox @ #143 Tuesday, November 24th, 2020 – 9:28 am
How’s the chance of implementation going?
Kakaru
There is your whine. Boohoo we did not win the election. It’s the Greens fault.
C@tmomma:
Tuesday, November 24, 2020 at 11:48 am
When Biden assumes the presidency, he’ll keep an arm’s length from the A-G. The DOJ under Barr has been at the beck-and-call of Trump, it having lost its autonomy. If Biden’s A-G were to lay federal charges against Trump it would be seen by his supporters as payback. It’s far better for state prosecutors to charge him, and with offences more serious than those at the federal level, and bearing in mind that federal offences require unanimous verdicts whereas some states only require a majority (ie, 11 0f 12) and I think New York State is one of them.
Greensborough Growler @ #147 Tuesday, November 24th, 2020 – 9:30 am
I don’t see this as a huge problem.
As you point out, just choosing Kerry has added sanity and good faith to the area.
Mavis,
I agree.
Mavis says Tuesday, November 24, 2020 at 11:25 am
Given their current system of primaries, I’m not sure they can.
Maybe the best outcome would be Trump not winning or be excluded from the primary, and then running as an independant, together with his own Senate ticket, and splitting the right’s vote.
Ok Guytaur – now I get why people bite back at you.
I was trying to have a reasonable discussion and do not need to be told ‘get over it’ and ‘stop whining’
Thanks for the personal abuse, I am out of here will read from afar and not feel the need to point out the hypocricy of being told to get over it, enforces some others views that directed my way when I defended you. I acknowledged your posting and was after discussion not abuse….
Do not need that type of abuse …..I’m done. Have better things to do with my time
Barney
“How’s the chance of implementation going?”
Hovering somewhere between zero and zilch. But with the prevailing inaction on climate change in Australia, the Greens have so much to protest against. It’s great for movement-building.
Gillard lost the 2010 election. Her hold on power, always tenuous, was busted in 2013, and served as a preface to the restoration of LNP rule by (the worst ever leadership in this country) Abbott and Joyce. Her term was remarkable for one thing. It was a continual struggle for mere survival. It is memorable as the phase in which Labor’s plurality went down the gurgler. What a fuck up it was. The result is the next Labor PM – if there will be such a thing – is probably not yet in the Parliament.
The Greens and their Rightist imitators together with the LNP will do their utmost to make sure Labor never recover.
Well, at least Firefox admits that his support for The Greens is a vanity project due to his acknowledging that they’ll never be able to achieve any of their goals but that he is happy to actively undermine and thwart the only other political party in Australia who is actually capable of achieving environmental goals in government.
Because impotent raging at the dying of the environmental light as a result of that suits him.
For me the best hope for Trump is that the banks move in and seize his assets.
https://www.google.com.au/maps/search/upper+bumcrack/@-32.7552255,151.8204663,15z?hl=en-GB
Ah, I see the history rewriting on the carbon price is going around again. People can blame Abbott and blame Murdoch all they want. Both are toxic, no argument there. But the reality was the carbon price that was agreed on during the hung parliament went way further than the electorate was prepared to go, and also much further than Labor had proposed to go at the 2010 election. That is the reality, and unfortunately that and the fact that Labor got in to bed with the Greens after the 2010 election is still hurting Labor today. The Greens are toxic to the majority of the electorate. Nobody is arguing they don’t have significant support in pockets of major cities, but to most of the country they are electoral poison. The Coalition and Murdoch don’t try and tie Labor to the Greens for nothing; they do it because it works. The Greens are then only too willing to chime in by every election campaign without fail making it clear that they will use any balance of power to force Labor to adopt electorally toxic Greens policy.
Scout
I said Labor need to get over it and stop whining.
Bringing the CPRS vote of Rudd’s legislation and ignoring Greens voting for Gillard’s is just pure whining over lost time.
That means it’s a self justification exercise to scapegoat the Greens because Labor lost the election.
Shorter form. Whining.
Edit: I used to be more polite. Ten years of this BS has ended that.
bc @ #165 Tuesday, November 24th, 2020 – 12:50 pm
Smart thinking. This was his original plan, the Reform Party was the name of the game. However, he realised that he needed the institutional structure of one of the major parties to achieve his goals. Now that he has his power base he may well revert to his original plan.
I wonder though, will they allow him to have a smart phone and access to social media in prison? 🙂
Matt31
“The Greens are toxic to the majority of the electorate. ”
Yep, succinctly said. This is the electoral reality that eludes guytaur, Firefox, Quoll, etc.
Matt31,
Exactly. However, the rabid Greens will never admit as much.
guytaur says:
Tuesday, November 24, 2020 at 12:47 pm
Kakaru
There is your whine. Boohoo we did not win the election. It’s the Greens fault.
No mate.
The Greens have destroyed the environmental movement in this country, brought progress to a standstill, what is to be done about it?
Progress that has been made by Labor is being unwound by the Liberals with no environmental group having the political clout to do anything about it.
How about you consider that instead of trying to justify the Green’s actions against environmental groups that has led to the destruction.
bc:
Tuesday, November 24, 2020 at 12:50 pm
[‘…and splitting the right’s vote.’]
That would be a great outcome. It would give the Dems. a second term.
Barney,
Trust once broken is not easily restored.
As I said, Kerry is a good appointment. But, re-building international alliances will take more than the efforts of one man.
International Diplomacy is a bit more difficult and nuanced than cooking two minute noodles.
Hunt’s hyperbole is yet again in overdrive (or perhaps hyperdrive).
United States :
Coronavirus Cases:
12,777,174
Deaths:
263,687
– 172,103 new cases and 972 new deaths in the United States
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
FredNK
Until you accept the Greens were practical by supporting Labor policy Labor will keep running away from its own policy.
That’s a Labor problem. Not a Green one.
citizen,
Hunt is obviously trolling for positive public headlines.
They used to “tar and feather” snake oil salesmen selling miracle cures.
Apparently, it’s now safe to go back into the water.
Voters delivered their verdict on the Gillard-Brown deal. They punished Labor mightily. Since we live in a democracy, it falls to the parties to consider what voters have said. The Greens might rage against it, but far from rewarding Labor for signing a deal with them, voters rebuked Labor. They’ve renewed their rebukes more than once. In the end, voters mean much more to Labor than the Greens ever will.
Labor have to fend off the Greens with a proverbial bargepole. The heavier, longer and more sturdy the pole the better.
Labor have to listen to voters rather than to their opponents.
Everyone. See how Briefly campaigns for the LNP and coal.
Douglas and Milko @ #144 Tuesday, November 24th, 2020 – 12:28 pm
I read most of the posts – sometimes in the small hours. Keeping sane and remote from alarums as best I can.
My oldest son in law had a fall a few days ago and broke his hip. He lay on the floor until found by a son. He already has advanced bowel cancer and was being treated with radiation. Reminder to keep phone handy at all times. In the meanwhile a favourite grand daughter is to be married in a couple of months – cycle of life ❓
My crew are all bordering on sixty years of age.
Why just yesterday I was twenty one and as dumb as a box of the traditional hammers. Now I am eighty one and just as dumb but learning to keep my mouth shut.
Good luck with the grindstone and grants.
Au revoir – important matters to attend to – another book by Stephen King plus my “Senior Citizen Afternoon Nap”. 💤💤💤
Labor went in to the 2019 election with a set of good but complex policies which they failed to explain or sell. The Coalition went into the election with few policies of their own and and lots of lies about Labor’s.
In addition to that, its leader Bill Shorten was unpopular. He was not trusted by the broader public – quite unjustified and in my opinion but that’s what many voters thought.
There was the usual media bias – in fact worse than usual. The Murdocracy partied like it was 2013. Clive Palmer sank tens of millions into a fake party pushing disinformation to boost the Coalition.
But it wasn’t all someone else’s fault. Labor campaigned poorly. I was waiting for them to get into gear, to pull a rabbit out of a hat. But there was no rabbit, in fact no hat.
Non
So the loss was ALL because of the deal with Brown .So glad to hear it had nothing to do with Labor , the factional power plays, the white anting and the rest of the Labor circus voters got to watch.
guytaur says:
Tuesday, November 24, 2020 at 1:21 pm
Everyone. See how Briefly campaigns for the LNP and coal.
How utterly, transparently disingenuous of you, g. You are a complete fucking moron.
“Voters delivered their verdict on the Gillard-Brown deal. They punished Labor mightily. Since we live in a democracy, it falls to the parties to consider what voters have said. The Greens might rage against it, but far from rewarding Labor for signing a deal with them, voters rebuked Labor. They’ve renewed their rebukes more than once. In the end, voters mean much more to Labor than the Greens ever will.
Labor have to fend off the Greens with a proverbial bargepole. The heavier, longer and more sturdy the pole the better.
Labor have to listen to voters rather than to their opponents.”
***
Julia Gillard writes on power, purpose and Labor’s future
…Labor comes to opposition having sent the Australian community a very cynical and shallow message about its sense of purpose.
The decision by Labor caucus to change leaders in June this year was not done on the basis of embracing a new policy agenda; it was not done because caucus now believed Kevin Rudd had the greater talent for governing. Caucus’s verdict of 2010 on that was not being revoked.
It was only done – indeed expressly done – on the basis that Labor might do better at the election.
Labor unambiguously sent a very clear message that it cared about nothing other than the prospects of survival of its members of parliament at the polls.
No alternate purpose was articulated during the election campaign that made sense to the Australian people.
…
Labor should not in opposition abandon our carbon pricing scheme. Climate change is real. Carbon should be priced. Community concern about carbon pricing did abate after its introduction. Tony Abbott does not have a viable alternative.
While it will be uncomfortable in the short term to be seen to be denying the mandate of the people, the higher cost would be appearing as, indeed becoming, a party unable to defend its own policy and legislation: a party without belief, fortitude or purpose.
Labor is on the right side of history on carbon pricing and must hold its course.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/13/julia-gillard-labor-purpose-future
Briefly
After ten years of you lying to yourself over Labor’s election loss it’s time we called you out
You may lie to yourself. That’s what you have been doing.
You are quick to claim that Greens campaign for the LNP.
Well here is the mirror right back at you.
You campaign against a sensible Labor policy.
‘They’re not perfect – no party or person ever is…’
Agreed, which is why I’m comfortable criticising the Labor party.
You admit the Greens aren’t perfect, yet you still refuse to criticise them.
I don’t mind you being proud of your partisanship, but why then use ‘partisan’ as a term to insult other posters?
I don’t mind you not criticising the Greens, but why then criticise others for supporting their party?
If it’s OK for Greens to be partisan and uncritical, then it is OK for other posters to be, too.
In my case, however, it is a false accusation, and telling lies about others is never a pretty thing.
Steve777
Starting to explain complex policies during an election campaign really is a push shit up hill enterprise. Either have done so in the previous years or go KiSS ‘clever 3 word slogans” .
The defeat of Rudd and the CPRS by Brown, Joyce, Minchin, Abbott, Robb and Co set the stage for the removal of Rudd and the loss in 2010, to be followed by the collapse in 2013. Gillard’s feeble trading with Bob (Look, No Windmills) Brown was an intrinsic part of this. The Greens in any case utterly betrayed Gillard over the Malaysia solution. What a fiasco.
There you have it people.
Briefly again resumes his campaign against the Gillard government.
Have no doubts. He is campaigning for the LNP.
” Scout says:
Tuesday, November 24, 2020 at 12:50 pm
Do not need that type of abuse …..I’m done. Have better things to do with my time ”
Don’t blame you Scout. There is a lot of immaturity on this site.
poroti @ #194 Tuesday, November 24th, 2020 – 1:34 pm
None of them have the skill to sell complex policy.
Albanese knows this.
That’s why he’s resorted to the Howard-esque cash bribe to the outer urbs (childcare). Simple sell.
The detailed research into the election in 2019 showed that Labor’s policy offering both attracted votes and lost them. The complexity was not “too much” for voters to take in at all. What cost Labor were the lies of the LNP and Palmer and the Greens Adani/interference stunts. The wash up was Labor lost hundreds of thousands of primary votes in seats that are now firmly held by the LNP. The LNP just smashed Labor in the places that mattered most. The plurality has been pillaged. This has not been unwound.
Bernstein names GOP senators who’ve privately expressed concern over the election aftermath:
Carl Bernstein
@carlbernstein
·
23h
I’m not violating any pledge of journalistic confidentially in reporting this: 21 Republican Sens–in convos w/ colleagues, staff members, lobbyists, W. House aides–have repeatedly expressed extreme contempt for Trump & his fitness to be POTUS. (1/3)
4.6K
34.5K
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Carl Bernstein
@carlbernstein
·
23h
The 21 GOP Senators who have privately expressed their disdain for Trump are: Portman, Alexander, Sasse, Blunt, Collins, Murkowski, Cornyn, Thune, Romney, Braun, Young, Tim Scott, Rick Scott, Rubio, Grassley, Burr, Toomey, McSally, Moran, Roberts, Shelby. (2/3)
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Carl Bernstein
@carlbernstein
·
23h
With few exceptions, their craven public silence has helped enable Trump’s most grievous conduct—including undermining and discrediting the US the electoral system.