I had a paywalled article in Crikey yesterday that riffed off South Australian Opposition Leader Peter Malinauskas’s pointedly supportive approach to the state’s brief COVID-19 lockdown, and the explicit distinction he drew between his own approach and that of Michael O’Brien in Victoria. It was noted that Malinauskas clearly believes the general tenor of polling coming out of Victoria, even if the likes of Peta Credlin do not. This also afforded me the opportunity to highlight a clip from September in which Credlin and two Sky-after-dark colleagues brought their formidable perspicacity to bear on the likely impact of Queensland’s hard border policies on the looming state election.
Speaking of the which, both Antony Green and Kevin Bonham offer extremely detailed post-match reports on the Queensland election, in which both try their hand at estimating the statewide two-party preferred: Antony Green coming in at 53.2% for Labor, and Kevin Bonham making it 53.1%. This represents either a 1.8% or 1.9% swing to Labor compared with the 2017 election result of 51.3%, which was barely different from the 2015 result of 51.1%. Annastacia Palaszczuk can now claim the vanishingly rare distinction of having increased her party’s seat share at three successive elections. For further insights into how this came about, JWS Research has published full results of its post-election poll.
Elsewhere, Western Australia’s Liberal Party will today choose a new leader after the resignation on Sunday of Liza Harvey, who came to the job last June but has been politically crippled by COVID-19 — a no-win situation for the Liberals in the best of circumstances, but one made quite a lot worse than it needed to be by a response that was more Michael O’Brien than Peter Malinauskas. The two contenders are Zak Kirkup, 33-year-old member for the all too marginal seat of Dawesville in southern Mandurah, and Bateman MP Dean Nalder, who unsuccessfully challenged Colin Barnett’s leadership six months before the Liberals’ landslide defeat in March 2017. The West Australian reports that Zirkup has it all but stitched up, since he has the support of Harvey as well as key numbers men Peter Collier and Nick Goiran.
Sorry, caught in two thoughts. 😆
Vogon Poet @ #94 Tuesday, November 24th, 2020 – 10:27 am
Shorten ignored the greens – lost.
Don’t think whatever correlation you’re trying to show actually exists. Sample-size is too small anyways.
Barney
See the election review.
Labor has to retain its traditional inner city base.
They did not do this in Brisbane.
That’s the danger to Labor. Court One Nation voters and lose in other areas.
The carbon price is a good example. Labor has got so hung up on blaming the Greens it has forgot it got Garnaut to educate the public on a carbon price not the Greens.
It’s another example of Labor throwing out the baby with the bathwater.
C@momma
Without knowing too much about it, it’s not so much a case of adding adenovirus to the vaccine, but the spike protein is inserted into the sequence of an adenovirus that allows replication in mammalian cells. The baculovirus-based vaccines are grown in insect cells. Both are more efficient than using fertilized chicken eggs, makes production much more efficient.
To get it to work though, the companies have done a lot of trial and error on the right adenovirus strain. The final product contains adenovirus antigens that are useful adjuvants as well, helping to stimulate the immune response.
The Greens have done enormous damage to the environmental movement; Labor has to work out ways to rebuild it. It is hard to see how those that undertook the destruction are part of the solution.
a r @ #102 Tuesday, November 24th, 2020 – 10:36 am
Dinatale didn’t ignore Shorten, in fact he said he would force Shorten to enact Green policy. to many voters ( esp qld ) that tied the two together.
FredNK
The first thing Labor can do is stop listening to the Murdoch mantra of destroy the Greens.
Then when Labor has a policy concept it educates the public about they won’t abandon it because of the “evil” Greens.
The education and lies about the Carbon Price were all Labor policy.
The Greens did not lie and call Labor’s Carbon Price a tax.
Edit: note what a low bar of comprehension Labor needs to clear
“btw why do they add the adenovirus?”
The adenovirus has been “hacked” so that it contains the instructions to make the spike protein instead of more adenoviruses.
guytaur says:
Tuesday, November 24, 2020 at 11:43 am
FredNK
The first thing Labor can do is stop listening to the Zmurdoch mantra of destroy the Greens.
..
It is interesting that you consider ignoring an attempt to destroy.
Mavis @ #90 Tuesday, November 24th, 2020 – 11:25 am
Mavis, I heard interesting speculation about a fight which will play out on the Democrat side as well. Apparently there are those who want Trump charged with federal crimes, relating to Self Dealing, the Emoluments Clause and whatever else he has done wrong, however there are those, like Biden but not for sure, who want to respect the tradition of not charging a former President with any crime once he is out of office. Then to leave him to the State jurisdictions such as SDNY, who are preparing cases to charge him with once he is out of office.
We’ll just have to wait and see how that goes.
I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Jared Kushner targeted for the shonky deals he has done with shady characters over the years as well.
However, the 80 million, at least 71 million of whom voted for him, followers of Trump are a force to be reckoned with and although Trump himself may be gone there are those who have been sharpening their tools to exploit his legacy. I’d be keeping a weather eye on Mike Pompeo. That guy is dangerous in a way Trump never has been.
guytaur @ #103 Tuesday, November 24th, 2020 – 8:36 am
The progressive side of politics need to attract more voters to its side to win the next federal election.
How is focusing on those who already vote progressively going to help achieve that?
frednk @ #108 Tuesday, November 24th, 2020 – 11:47 am
Conflation pumps his tyres.
Jaeger @ #107 Tuesday, November 24th, 2020 – 11:44 am
Thank you, Jaeger! Gene Splicing, I know I should have read that article recently. 😀
The first thing Guytaur must do is stop saying the “The first thing that Labor must do……….”
FredNK
It’s a very simple thing.
It was Abbott not the Greens that destroyed Labor’s carbon price narrative.
Saying otherwise means you buy Murdoch’s narrative.
And thank you, NathanA! Again. 🙂
GG
Kevin Rudd says the same about Murdoch as I do.
It’s his phrase that Murdoch is “A Cancer On Democracy”
Labor has become so scared of being called Green it has thrown out it’s own policy because Murdoch calls it Green.
Vogon Poet says:
Tuesday, November 24, 2020 at 11:40 am
a r @ #102 Tuesday, November 24th, 2020 – 10:36 am
Vogon Poet @ #94 Tuesday, November 24th, 2020 – 10:27 am
Andrews ignored the greens-won
Palaszczuk ignored the greens – won
Shorten ignored the greens – lost.
Don’t think whatever correlation you’re trying to show actually exists. Sample-size is too small anyways.
Dinatale didn’t ignore Shorten, in fact he said he would force Shorten to enact Green policy. to many voters ( esp qld ) that tied the two together.
The Greens are determined to destroy Labor. They absolutely despise Labor and all it represents; they mistrust working people and treat them with little better than contempt.
Labor have to defeat all its opponents, including the various LNP iterations and the Greens. There will be no reform in Australia until Labor accomplish this.
The truth is Labor partisans are scared of Murdoch.
So in their fear they say the Greens destroy Labor instead.
Shorten lost because while he attempted to pander to green-tinted expectancy in Victoria he discredited himself in QLD and in every other export-facing resource-reliant electorate in the country.
This was a serious strategic error. He did not ignore the Greens enough.
“So you put up a post which you agree is not factual and then whinge when you get criticised?
Maybe try going for accuracy next time and see what happens.
Good luck with getting guytaur to do that. I’m sure his teachers at school had trouble getting him to stick to the facts, correctly source and not make up fairy stories too.”
***
This coming from the two unhinged nutcases who lash out in bitterness when anyone confronts them with facts that don’t align with what they’ve been brainwashed into believing. They are just like many of Trump’s supporters when they cry “fake news” and resort to personally attacking the left with their stereotypes in utter desperation. So typical of conservative right wingers.
Guytaur,
You say lots of things. Mostly unintelligible babble.
Briefly
The ACT Andrew Barr has directly contradicted you in a public podcast.
He is a Labor leader. His argument is the Greens are essential for Labor reform to succeed. He quoted senate numbers.
This is a Labor argument not a Greens argument.
Labor do not fear Murdoch. Correctly, they are mindful of voters. Voters decide elections. Parties are wise to be afraid of them. They run the place at the end of the day.
Remember.
Biden will be introducing a carbon price.
He does not want an argument about coal or gas as a transition fuel.
He will follow the science.
A lot of Labor’s right wing faction is on the wrong side of history.
William
Page tabs work fine on my PC browser (Chrome). But they don’t work on my mobile browser (stock standard Samsung Android)
guytaur says:
Tuesday, November 24, 2020 at 12:00 pm
Briefly
The ACT Andrew Barr has directly contradicted you in a public podcast.
He is a Labor leader. His argument is the Greens are essential for Labor reform to succeed. He quoted senate numbers.
This is a Labor argument not a Greens argument.
His thesis is incomplete. The actual history of the Senate is the Greens will use their numbers to combine with the LNP to defeat Labor. The destruction of the Rudd Government is a case in point. The defeat of the Malaysia solution during Gillard’s term is another.
The undeniable truth is the Greens utterly fucking detest Labor and will use their numbers to wreck Labor if they can.
The Greens are an anti-Labor Party. They say so themselves. This is a founding principle of Bob Brown’s involvement in politics. They will never allow a successful reformist Labor Government if it’s in their power to prevent it.
guytaur
Biden won’t be introducing anything of consequence if he doesn’t win both the Senate runoffs.
“Shorten ignored the greens – lost.”
***
Not exactly…
Bill Shorten rules out joint climate policy process with Greens if Labor wins power
Bill Shorten has declared Labor will run its own race on climate change, and will “listen” but not replicate Julia Gillard’s joint policy process with the Greens in any minority government scenario after the election.
In an interview with Guardian Australia on the campaign trail this week, the Labor leader rebuffed a recent overture from the Greens leader Richard Di Natale to revive the process that applied in the 43rd parliament where the parties worked together to produce the clean energy package.
“Richard would say that wouldn’t he? So, who cares? Richard is looking for relevance at the moment,” Shorten said. “I don’t blame him for doing that, it’s legitimate, but I’m going to lead a Labor government”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/26/bill-shorten-rules-out-joint-climate-policy-process-with-greens-if-labor-wins-power
Gee, that zinger in the last sentence aged well!
Shorten rejected a reasonable approach from the Greens – lost.
‘This coming from the two unhinged nutcases who lash out in bitterness when anyone confronts them with facts that don’t align with what they’ve been brainwashed into believing. ‘
This from one of the most partisan posters here.
I’ve criticised Labor frequently. I haven’t seen you criticise the Greens once.
Briefly
Barr is governing. Long term. He has succeeded in getting reform happen ,
He even saw Marriage Equality get passed despite Howard acting to stop it.
Good Labor policy come to reality.
That’s his experience. I think he knows what he is talking about.
Guytaur I agree with 99% of your posts, however it must be acknowledged that the Greens voted against the Carbon Pricing Scheme.
Even the Greens website acknowledges this:
https://greens.org.au/cprs
They and you may argue that they thought it was bad policy, but to argue that they did not vote it down is just wrong.
And we have had nothing in place since.
Yes Labor need to do better on climate change, I totally acknowledge that but this goes both ways.
CC
You obviously did not see Trump’s executive orders.
Don’t help the reactionaries by downplaying what a change Biden represents.
Plus the Democrats may win the runoff’s.
Trump is officially a loser now 🙂
guytaur says:
Tuesday, November 24, 2020 at 12:03 pm
Remember.
Biden will be introducing a carbon price.
He does not want an argument about coal or gas as a transition fuel.
He will follow the science.
A lot of Labor’s right wing faction is on the wrong side of history.
1. Biden will most probably never get his plan through the congress. Obstruction – desperate intransigence – will rule.
2. Labor have been on the losing end of climate change politics ever since the 1990’s, with a short reprieve around the 2007 election when the Liberals crossed the aisle. Labor have lost every election since then in part because of climate policies. They have been skewered by both the LNP and the Greens on this.
3. This is not going to change as long as the Greens campaign against Labor.
4. Since the Green campaign against Labor is an existential imperative for them, the LNP will continue to run this country.
Scout
Labor has to get over that.
The Greens did support Gillard’s carbon price.
This is a fact.
The only reason Labor whines about the Rudd legislation is because it could not counter Abbott’s campaign.
The whine. We needed more time. Labor could have had it by winning the election.
Edit: To be clear. I agree with Turnbull and Rudd. Murdoch is to blame.
Of course, where Labor Governments are in office – in the States – energy and climate policies have been introduced that are all aimed at transformation of the carbon economy. This is true even in those provinces where fossil fuel industries – coal and gas – are of substantial importance.
Labor in power do things without adopting Green polemics. They are pragmatically effective. They have never ever been given a moment’s credit by the Greens for this. Never have. Never will. The Greens apply Abbott-like tactics to Labor – oppose, oppose, oppose. Bob (Look, No Windmills) Brown should change his name to Nope Brown.
guytaur
You cannot introduce a carbon tax in the US with an executive order.
frednk @ #87 Tuesday, November 24th, 2020 – 11:19 am
The reality is that the world is changing faster than some people can cope with. Evolve or die.
(CNN)The General Services Administration has informed President-elect Joe Biden that the Trump administration is ready to begin the formal transition process, according to a letter from Administrator Emily Murphy sent Monday afternoon and obtained by CNN.
The letter is the first step the administration has taken to acknowledge President Donald Trump’s defeat, more than two weeks after Biden was declared the winner in the election.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/23/politics/transition-biden-gsa-begin/index.html?utm_content=2020-11-23T23%3A22%3A28&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twCNNi
Finally. The transition can begin.
cud
Biden is not introducing a tax on carbon. He is introducing a carbon price.
He can do a lot to do this by executive order. Trump showed how far you can go.
Yes he can go further with legislation. However do not overlook what he can do.
Remember Wall Street wants a market mechanism and will force the GOP to act.
The Republicans are going to change. They are now a populist working party of the right. That is what Trump has done to the GOP.
C@t
Actually, Trump was fully formed and developed in the good ole USA,.
There is an interesting quote from Goethe, which William Shirer gives at the beginning of Rise and Fall of the Third Reich:
I often have a bitter sorrow at the thought of the German people, which is so estimable in the individual and so wretched in the generality…
Actually, post WWII, the German have been a great force for humanity and enlightenment in our world.
Barr runs a municipal authority. His thesis would not get a run in the northern suburbs of Perth, in one of which I’m currently having morning tea. This is mortgage belt/aspirational/young families/culturally diverse Perth, where the mean household income is spot on with the Metro mean, where unemployment is around 8%, where FIFO employment in the resources sector is important; where in the last federal election the Liberal candidate won the local booth and where the Green got 6% of the PV.
This is a district in Cowan, won very narrowly by Anne Ali. This district voted for Mark MacGowan about 55/45 having voted Liberal in the prior two elections. It will probably vote 70/30 for Labor in March. This is the kind of district where elections are decided in WA and right around the country. The Greens will be lucky to recover their deposit here if they run next year.
“This from one of the most partisan posters here.
I’ve criticised Labor frequently. I haven’t seen you criticise the Greens once.”
***
Yep, you’re damn right I’m partisan towards the Greens and the left. I know I’m a massive lefty and I do not shy away from that, in fact I am proud of it.
When I have something to criticise, I’ll be sure to let you know. I have been in the past. Wouldn’t be holding my breath though if I were you – I am very happy with how the Greens are going at present and they do a great job of representing my views. They’re not perfect – no party or person ever is – but they’re certainly the pick of the bunch when it comes to Australian politics. Unlike many of you Laborites, I am not disillusioned with my party.
Kay Jay,
Thanks for the info on posting images – very much appreciated.
I have been on day leave from my computer for a few weeks – but am not back with my nose to the grindstone grant writing, after saying I would never do it again, so more likely to post at a sensible hour.
Scout, it’s 2020
It is truly is remarkable how some Labor partisans brain cells seem to have stopped functioning as effective memory stores in 2009. As it seems there’s a giant empty chasm between 2009 and 2020 where everything is frozen in time and there was never any far more effective carbon pollution legislation.
No-one is denying the CPRS was voted down because it was shit policy, cooked up to appease the fossil fuel lobby who have the major parties under their thumb for a few pieces of gold.
Who is denying that the most effective control of carbon pollution ever in Australia was from a the Labor-Greens govt of J Gillard?
Must really be shit in the Labor party right now considering the ridiculous and inane commentary of the Laborite cabal on here over recent days.
I’d almost be more considerate of the current troubles they were in. If they didn’t continually prove what a bunch of pathetic tossers who scream about ‘teh Greens’ day after day, year after year… with the same tiresome and usually idiotic talking points…
Blind partisanship, seems to be mostly what the prolific PB Laborite commentators have. Hence why it ends up the same few fools reinforcing their own views, regurgitating the same bubble like conversation amongst themselves, for years and years and years…
That should solve all of the Auspol problems don’t you think?
Briefly
A political leader that has Federal Parliament in its territory and you want to pretend he does not understand federal politics.
The big problem facing the USA is that four years of Trump has debased their credibility in world forums as a World leader and reliable partner. John Kerry has been selected as Biden’s roving ambassador on Climate. He is a good choice given he has a wealth of knowledge, a good record of achievement and solid contacts throughout the world. But, he will have his work cut out to reignite and then maintain the loyalty of many countries and Leaders throughout the world.
And just for the record
The last unlinked case in NSW is entered into the database on 28/10. It was announced on 29/10.
That means we have had 26 days without an unlinked case.
On December 1, if there are no further cases in NSW, it will be 33 days without an unlinked case, but only 24 days without a case.
What’s the odds of a new case in NSW before then? Remember the Moss Vale case – the one that recently got linked due to heroic efforts – that one involved two intermediate (and previously hidden) cases, stretching over a month. I’ll be a bit more relaxed about this if and when they publish negative results for sewage.
guytaur
Biden cannot introduce a price on carbon with an executive order.
GG
A rational sensible comment.
However don’t forget China wants the US to act on climate.
The US will be using that to pressure China on trade including ships traversing trade routes.
It’s Australia and Saudi Arabia and Russia that are likely to be opposing him.