I had a paywalled article in Crikey yesterday that riffed off South Australian Opposition Leader Peter Malinauskas’s pointedly supportive approach to the state’s brief COVID-19 lockdown, and the explicit distinction he drew between his own approach and that of Michael O’Brien in Victoria. It was noted that Malinauskas clearly believes the general tenor of polling coming out of Victoria, even if the likes of Peta Credlin do not. This also afforded me the opportunity to highlight a clip from September in which Credlin and two Sky-after-dark colleagues brought their formidable perspicacity to bear on the likely impact of Queensland’s hard border policies on the looming state election.
Speaking of the which, both Antony Green and Kevin Bonham offer extremely detailed post-match reports on the Queensland election, in which both try their hand at estimating the statewide two-party preferred: Antony Green coming in at 53.2% for Labor, and Kevin Bonham making it 53.1%. This represents either a 1.8% or 1.9% swing to Labor compared with the 2017 election result of 51.3%, which was barely different from the 2015 result of 51.1%. Annastacia Palaszczuk can now claim the vanishingly rare distinction of having increased her party’s seat share at three successive elections. For further insights into how this came about, JWS Research has published full results of its post-election poll.
Elsewhere, Western Australia’s Liberal Party will today choose a new leader after the resignation on Sunday of Liza Harvey, who came to the job last June but has been politically crippled by COVID-19 — a no-win situation for the Liberals in the best of circumstances, but one made quite a lot worse than it needed to be by a response that was more Michael O’Brien than Peter Malinauskas. The two contenders are Zak Kirkup, 33-year-old member for the all too marginal seat of Dawesville in southern Mandurah, and Bateman MP Dean Nalder, who unsuccessfully challenged Colin Barnett’s leadership six months before the Liberals’ landslide defeat in March 2017. The West Australian reports that Zirkup has it all but stitched up, since he has the support of Harvey as well as key numbers men Peter Collier and Nick Goiran.
I will put it simply for Labor people. Learn from Ardern.
That’s what Biden’s administration is going to look like.
Getting out of the Middle East and into Asia is where the US is going. They do want to end the Forever Wars.
The Pentagon is talking about maintaining peace by enforcing international rules including trading routes and defending Taiwan.
Edit: Obama’s Asian Pivot is back baby.
Trump may have been erratic and bellicose but the US stayed within this zone. That’s very bad news for the LNP wailing about the yellow peril.
Part of this will include Labor policy making Australia on climate a pariah state.
Learn from Adern. Move now so you get the PR benefit.
Don’t move and let the Greens grow at Labor’s expense.
Thank you BK for your Dawn Patrol today and many previous days.
frednk @ #30 Tuesday, November 24th, 2020 – 8:21 am
In other words, “if we don’t dig it up and sell it, someone else will”.
Gibbon logic at its finest 🙁
Has anything been concluded as to the source of the Great PB Hack of 2020?
Are AFP Investigations ongoing?
I noticed a few statements on the Oxford vaccine trials when flicking through the blog this morning, particularly on the difference in reported efficacies from the two different dosing regimens.
This article sums it up very nicely (apologies if previously posted):
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03326-w
Briefly, the higher efficacy with the lower dose could be down to not enough data or real effects, and you have to be a little careful comparing two different efficacies from two different populations. The vaccine itself is a mix of adenovirus and Sars-CoV-2 spike protein, and higher doses could stimulate the wrong type of immune response, or an immune response that is more targeted to the adenovirus part of the vaccine than the spike protein. This is not completely unheard of in the lab, but don’t think it’s been reported in clinical trials although stand to be corrected on that, but it could well be a real effect.
Anyways, the really problematic issues are how long immunity last, whether it is more effective in certain demographic groups and whether there are rare long-term consequences of the vaccine that the trials haven’t picked up.
I used Adern for the example of where Biden is probably going because she is not far left.
She is a Centrist leader. She is no radical.
This avoids the Labor partisan attack of a far left radical government.
That’s not what Biden or Adern is.
guytaur
What Labor partisan attacks on Biden or Ardern are you referring to?
Please provide evidence.
Zoomster
I will rephrase for you. The partisan attacks on me for pointing this reality out.
That’s the guyterverse or the Greens view are quite common attacks from the partisans.
Yesterday I got called delusional for daring to suggest Queensland and Federal Labor can do as Daniel Andrews has done in Victoria.
His government is also not a far left radical government with Fidel Castro in charge.
guytaur
So you put up a post which you agree is not factual and then whinge when you get criticised?
Maybe try going for accuracy next time and see what happens.
Zoomster
Instead of attacking me for pointing out how extreme some of the Labor partisan attacks on me are. You should instead learn that the extreme attacks are the ones out of touch with reality.
You are very clever with your spin.
The reality like Covid 19 doesn’t give a flying pigs bit of notice.
Universal Basic Incme is a good example.
Well now Biden has appointed Yellen who has commented favourably on the concept.
A few very prominent Labor partisan posters on this blog need to see the reality.
GSA tells Biden that transition can formally begin
The General Services Administration has informed President-elect Joe Biden that the Trump administration is ready to begin the formal transition process, according to a letter from Administrator Emily Murphy sent Monday afternoon and obtained by CNN.
The letter is the first step the administration has taken to acknowledge President Donald Trump’s defeat, more than two weeks after Biden was declared the winner in the election.
The letter signals that Murphy will formally sign off on Biden’s victory, a normally perfunctory process known as ascertainment. The move will allow the transition to officially begin, permitting current administration agency officials to coordinate with the incoming Biden team, and providing millions in government funding for the transition.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/23/politics/transition-biden-gsa-begin/index.html
Breaking news
Trump’s Administration has agreed to start formal transition process.
It’s not up to the goddamn Trump administration. The GSA is supposed to be independent!
ar
Correct. It’s all part of how bad Trump has been.
Trump allows Biden transition to proceed — but says ‘I believe we will prevail’ in the race he lost
President Donald J. Trump has responded in a tweet to the news that the transition to a President-elect Biden administration must begin.
“I want to thank Emily Murphy at GSA for her steadfast dedication and loyalty to our Country [sic]. She has been harassed, threatened, and abused – and I do not want to see this happen to her, her family, or employees of GSA,” Trump tweeted. “Our case STRONGLY continues, we will keep up the good fight, and I believe we will prevail!”
Trump continued, “Nevertheless, in the best interest of our Country [sic], I am recommending that Emily and her team do what needs to be done with regard to initial protocols, and I have told my team to do the same.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/11/trump-allows-biden-transition-to-proceed-but-says-i-believe-we-will-prevail-in-the-race-he-lost/
Queensland will open its borders to NSW on Dec, 1.
ar
Things got so bad that the Pod Save America Obama staffers were using “Slow Moving Coup”.
‘The General Services Administration has recognised Joe Biden as the ‘apparent winner’ of the US election , allowing a transition stage to begin’. The news gets better by the hour.
guytaur
Try and tell SAD and the Rupertarium orcs that. They will nae believe a word of it 🙂
I am looking forward to January 20.
Trump’s criminal immunity ends. Along with his ability to protect supporters from legal consequences.
It’s also good news for the Georgia Senate runoff’s. Trump is now officially a LOSER
I think I projected the Trump voice there. 🙂
Mavis @ #68 Tuesday, November 24th, 2020 – 10:42 am
Emily Murphy was getting serious pressure from the Republican Party. At last.
Since when did the country of America become ‘Country’? 😆
a r @ #63 Tuesday, November 24th, 2020 – 10:24 am
Nevertheless, in the best interest of our Country [sic], I am recommending that Emily and her team do what needs to be done with regard to initial protocols
Yup.
However, in real politik land, no one who accepted the poison Trump chalice ever worked for anyone else but Trump.
Todays Corona Cast, Is Covid seasonal after all…
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/coronacast/is-coronavirus-seasonal-after-all/12912472
Seems like Norman Swan is onto my line of thinking…
I believe we will prevail!’
Yes, but how? What scheme has Trump cooked up in his lizard brain?
Can someone tell me what is it about the German brain that makes them capable of such perfidy and sociopathic psycopathy!?!
(Trump = Drumpf = German as recently as his grandfather)
Donald Trump has formally begun the transition process to Joe Biden.
General Services Administration head Emily Murphy informed Mr Biden in a letter on Monday afternoon that she was providing him access to administration resources under the Presidential Transition Act.
“I take this role seriously and, because of recent developments involving legal challenges and certifications of election results, am transmitting this letter today to make those resources and services available to you,” Ms Murphy said.
The President confirmed the move on Twitter, while still insisting his efforts to overturn the election results would be successful.
C@tmomma:
Tuesday, November 24, 2020 at 10:49 am
[‘Emily Murphy was getting serious pressure from the Republican Party. At last.’]
Yes, this and the decision in Michigan to certify the election, and the 34 to 1 decisions against Trump in various courts means his house of cards is on the verge of collapse even though the vast majority of GOP members of Congress are still openly at least too gutless to do the right thing.
NathanA @ #55 Tuesday, November 24th, 2020 – 9:56 am
Thank you SO much for this and your elucidation, NathanA. It makes sense to me what you say about the body responding to the adenovirus part of the vaccine at the higher dose (btw why do they add the adenovirus?). It kind of adds fuel to the fires of my speculation last night that the half dose primes the body for the full dose that follows. Now I know why. Better responsiveness to the spike protein RNA at the lower dose. 🙂
Cat
I am sure the Germans are as embarrassed about Trump as we are about the Murdoch’s.
It’s another thing to look forward to. As reality bites Fox viewership is going to fall. People in touch with reality (tenuous) will have their propaganda bubble busted.
The others are going to follow Trump’s advice and go to more extreme outlets. Then there is whatever results lawsuits and the like get with promoting disinformation on Covid 19.
The return of the rule of law we see even in GOP states will have a huge effect. Taking down Trump is a huge blow to the Bannon right wing project.
The world is much better off now it’s officially under way.
6 cases in NSW all in hotel quarantine
0 community cases in 17 days
0 unknown source in 31 days
Mavis says: Tuesday, November 24, 2020 at 11:03 am
Yes, this and the decision in Michigan to certify the election, and the 34 to 1 decisions against Trump in various courts means his house of cards is on the verge of collapse even though the vast majority of GOP members of Congress are still openly at least too gutless to do the right thing.
**********************************************************************
US author – Don Winslow @donwinslow
Dear Republicans,
I would like you to explain to the world how you went from storming Omaha beach to being afraid of a tweet from Donald Trump
Just heard some Libtard addressing …’the 1500 workers that is here..’
Sweet Jesus.
…even though the vast majority of GOP members of Congress are still openly at least too gutless to do the right thing.
Because they know the Trump threat hasn’t been extinguished. He is going to run in 2024 and they know that he will be priming the base pump to gush all over him again. Anyone who doesn’t stick with him will be Primaried from Trump World. And they will likely lose that Primary.
People say it’s going to be hard for Biden to navigate around the Republican Party, well I reckon it’s going to be harder for the Repugs to navigate the Trump shoals ahead of them.
Of course, the proviso is that the Murdochs don’t think of a way to negate him between now and then. 🙂
zoomster @ #59 Tuesday, November 24th, 2020 – 10:11 am
Good luck with getting guytaur to do that. I’m sure his teachers at school had trouble getting him to stick to the facts, correctly source and not make up fairy stories too.
Cat
You called me delusional for saying other Labor governments can do what Victoria’s Labor government did.
Your credibility and accuracy are in question not mine.
Edit: Worse I was pointing to how Andrews supported coal workers when a power station shut down. It was a very Sky After Dark style attack you mounted.
Trump thinks his trump card will be the SCOTUS. And even though it’s highly partisan, it’s very doubtful that it will assist him given the unequivocal decisions of the lower courts. He knows his number’s up, with him and his crime family likely to face multiple charges next year.
Player One says:
Tuesday, November 24, 2020 at 9:55 am
frednk @ #30 Tuesday, November 24th, 2020 – 8:21 am
Coal will die when the demand dies, it is that simple. I see the Greens are trying to undermine Labors efforts to reduce demand by trying to export Queensland jobs to Indonesia.
In other words, “if we don’t dig it up and sell it, someone else will”.
Gibbon logic at its finest
Adding the gibbon; does not change reality.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gibbon
I’m glad that GT has finally agreed that Federal Labor should follow Dan Andrew’s example of completely ignoring and sidelining the greens. It’s taken awhile, but he got there eventually.
FredNK
You have forgotten why Labor had a carbon price in the first place.
That was a Labor policy. The Greens wanted a stronger one than Rudd did. That was still Labor policy just not the Greens one.
With Biden in Office Murdoch’s ability to lie goes away.
Get out of arguing the timeline.
Go back to sane policy. Go for the carbon price.
C@tmomma:
Tuesday, November 24, 2020 at 11:10 am
[‘Because they know the Trump threat hasn’t been extinguished. He is going to run in 2024…’]
It’ll be hard to run from a prison cell. I reckon that New York will throw the book at him, his family. I further think that once the air clears on the election, the GOP will discard him.
The seaborne coal industry was created on the basis of external demand. Essentially, foreign economies are responsible for it. Without them it would not exist. The same is true of iron ore, gold, gas, wool…in short, for all our bulk exports. The seaborne coal market faces extinction because external demand is shrinking. This is desirable. It is also inexorable.
VP
Ignoring and sidelining the Greens means Labor is ignoring and sidelining it’s base. That was in the 2019 post election review.
Charting your own course is not destroying your natural voter base.
VP,
Yes indeed.
It’s pretty much what Anna P did in Queensland too.
Sidelining the Greens and their intemperate craziness is the model Labor will use to regain power.
Andrews ignored the greens-won
Palaszczuk ignored the greens – won
It should be noted that Emily Murphy , Administrator of the GSA, was due to appear before a Congress committee today, to explain her recalcitrance in declaring Biden the Presidential elect.
https://oversight.house.gov/sites/democrats.oversight.house.gov/files/2020-11-19.CBM%20Lowey%20GEC%20Quigley%20re%20Biden-Harris%20Transition%20Team%20Access%20FINAL.pdf
Just wondering if this had anything to do with her comparative haste to make the announcement today.
poroti
Looks like Victoria has flatlined 🙂
I have fond memories of sailing on a falucca down the Nile.
Bill Shorten
guytaur @ #90 Tuesday, November 24th, 2020 – 8:25 am
So Labor’s base is the 10% or so of the electorate that vote Green?
MSNBC did a piece on why 70 million Americans like Trump so much and why so many of them believe in the “stolen election” conspiracy.
It basically comes down to Murdoch and Fox. The piece even shows a segment of Malcolm Turnbull telling off a Murdoch “apparatchik” (MSNBC’s words) from last week.
I suspect we are seeing the end days of Murdoch in the US and hopefully in Australia as well.
frednk, wikipedia missed the lesser known genus , the southcoast shitgibbon.
guytaur
“That was a Labor policy. The Greens wanted a stronger one than Rudd did”
As a result, the Greens gave us Abbott. Brilliant strategising by the Greens.