Click here for full Queensland election results updated live.
The bugs in my election results facility are largely dealt with now, some niggles notwithstanding – here you will find booth results in a far more manageable form than offered by the ECQ, and the only swing data at booth level available anywhere. This will updated live throughout the final stages of the count, although the ECQ’s move to the separately published “official” count either today or tomorrow will need to be finessed. If you find any value in this labour-intensive effort, gestures of appreciation in the form of donations are gratefully received through the “Become a Supporter” button at the top of the page.
My results system is giving Labor 50 out of the 52 seats in which they currently lead the two-party count, and the LNP 29 of their 34, with the Greens to win two barring late-count surprises at Labor’s expense in McConnel and Cooper, and the cross-bench otherwise being a status quo of three Katter’s Australian Party, one One Nation and one independent. In the few cases where my system disagrees, I suspect it is because the ABC is projecting the two-party result in large pre-poll centres that have so far reported only the primary vote. A large pre-poll booth in Hervey Bay is one such, while another pre-poll booth in the seat hasn’t reported at all. Hervey Bay also hasn’t reported any postals yet, which went around 63-37 to the LNP in 2017 compared with 59-41 in the electorate at large. Even so, even the ABC projection has Labor’s lead at 3.2% compared with a raw 4.9%, so they would have to be rated the strong favourite.
My system and the ABC’s are agreed that the LNP is not yet home and dry in Burleigh, Chatsworth, Coomera and Currumbin, but my fifth LNP in-doubt seat is Clayfield and the ABC’s is Glass House, which mine is giving away just barely. I would think it likely that the LNP will get home in all of them. I presume the ABC’s call of Clayfield relates to it projecting a two-party result from the Clayfield Early Voting Centre, which as yet has only reported on the primary vote and accounts for more than a quarter of the current primary vote total. Labor will need to achieve something special in Glass House out of the Woodford Early Voting Centre, which hasn’t reported on either the primary or two-party count. I also wouldn’t be too amazed if Labor’s leads in LNP-held Bundaberg and Nicklin failed to survive the late count, and their existing total of 50 proves their final score, one up on the result from 2017.
I’ll offer a more in-depth analysis of the situation tomorrow, together with ongoing commentary on the late count.
Gareth @ #88 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 1:44 pm
Thanks Gareth
A quick comparison using the recent elections, Qld not finished counting, but based on ABC predictions
Index using only parties winning seats
Qld – 12.75
ACT -7.74
NZ – 3.48
Index using all party votes
Qld – 12.78
ACT – 8.31
NZ – 3.97
It seems this index is high in Qld because Labor is massively over represented on current vote versus seat numbers in the current election and Qld looks like a far less representative or proportional system overall compared to even other parts of Australia. The 2012 Qld election had an index of >31 with LNP getting >85% of seats on just under 50% of the vote then, as indicated in that wiki link.
The ACT had a relative Greens over representation on votes vs seats this time, for a change.
Seems the Canadian govt commission review of proportional voting systems designated any changes to the voting system there should be made so there is an index of 5 or less to fairly represent the voters.
Kiwi’s evidently have a far more proportionally representative system
As to whether you could convince either of the major parties to even consider a more representative system of electing MPs.
One need only scroll back through one of the many hundreds of threads and thousands of comments here to see how blinded by spite and perceptions of partisan interest many of the bellowers for major parties here are.
They’re really not interested in fair representation or the public interest.
So if you own real estate that becomes much more valuable because of decisions that you make as a senior Cabinet Minister, and you do nothing to divest yourself of the property before the decision is made and you don’t notify the public either, that’s all on the up and up?
Jackie Trad was a liability for Labor. It was incredibly self-indulgent of them to pre-select her again. The muddled logic of Labor was that Trad’s ethical failures were serious enough to warrant excluding her from the Cabinet, but not serious enough to force her to retire from parliament. Labor would have been much better off pre-selecting a candidate who didn’t have all that baggage.
Fortunately for the Greens the ALP were tactically stupid. They shot themselves in the foot.
The Greens hope to increase their representation. Fair enough. No-one can blame them for that. If it happens it will be at Labor’s expense by means of deals with the LNP. That’s also fair enough. Parties will compete. The Bourgeoisie will get behind the Greens one day and take them into power-sharing with the LNP…with their colleagues, the Joyces, the Abbotts and the Canavans of the world.
Nicholas says:
Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 7:04 pm
Didn’t greens accept donations of multi millions recently?
https://www.smh.com.au/national/what-makes-someone-give-1-6m-to-a-political-party-20110107-19itj.html
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/greens-bank-39m-in-donations-including-600000-from-graeme-wood-20170201-gu2qzm.html
Not to mention Duncan Turpie, who donated $100,000 to the Greens.
Nicholas says:
Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 7:04 pm
Bollocks. Trad was notched for a political hit job because she was a Labor woman in power. The QLD Greens are beneficiaries of Establishment spite….of malice that you’re now retailing. Never mind. Get used to their patronage. You belong to them now.
Asha Leu @ #384 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 6:32 pm
Ashby’s just worried about who he’ll have to screw for a living now. Cabin boy on a trawler seems appropriate given his raped fishermen comment.
“I really hope for Labor’s sake that a) Palaszczuk doesn’t have any plans to go anywhere, and b) Dick and not Miles is the fallback, because if Miles is, the LNP are home and hosed when it comes to that.”
She may not go anywhere given her lack of ability. It is not hard to run around, stomping on industries who do not vote for you to make yourself look like a hero to others. It is not hard to borrow money and more money and more money. Employ more public servants with borrowed money. To increase fees, levies and create new ones. She is not exactly like Anna Bligh who actually had some nuance and she has gone on to be CEO of the Australian Banking association.
It is not hard to say Newman, Furious, Frustrated and Strong which seems to be the first four words in her vocabulary. Notice how she never seems to take any responsibility when things go wrong? I know nothing.
Part of me hopes no vaccine for coronavirus is found in the next four years, just to watch Labor squirm when jobkeeper and jobseeker get removed and the Queensland economy gets destroyed. Clives death tax fear might come to fruition. One thing is for sure, in the future Queensland is going to be the highest taxing state in the country. The pied piper has to be paid eventually. But we can rest assured all these politicians bank accounts will be brimming full of borrowed money.
In the early days of the Commonwealth the Parliament was composed of an emergent Labor caucus on the one hand and a disparate set of radical, liberal, bourgeois, rural, imperialist, capitalist and conservative voices. The non-Labor ranks were disorganised and drawn into intrigues against each other. After a decade or so they fused into an Anti-Labor congress. A similar process is occurring today. Anti-Labor voices are finding they can succeed against Labor by collaborating with each other. The precarious nature of political power will drive the Labor-phobic to co-operate even though they dislike each other. They might not “fuse”, as occurred in the early 20th century, but they will find ways to support each other. The bourgeoisie have been very adroit at adapting over the decades in order to prevent Labor from taking power. They will be no less adaptable in future. They will swallow the Greens.
Paul @ #407 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 7:19 pm
James? James Ashby? Is that you? Or is your real name Campbell?
Keep drinking those bitter tears “Paul” – if you can’t taste them, the part of you that hopes for no coronavirus vaccine might learn some humility.
OMG Paul. You are such a cheerful fellow aren’t you. Sore loser?
Paul and the Greens have a lot in common. They hate Labor.
Paul, as they say in Queensland after state of origin league games – look at the scoreboard champ.
Paul @ #208 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 7:19 pm
When a person shows you who they really are – believe them.
Shame on you.
“Keep drinking those bitter tears “Paul””
What bitter tears? I always said Labor would form government. Of course you never said what I posted was wrong, so you secretly know I am right. I was watching some news site last night and a Labor cabdidate was asked what job projects Labor had in mind. Well one was a road overpass. I thought WOW, that is going to make thousands of long term jobs and create future prosperity. Much like Labor is currently ripping down the Paradise Dam wall, reducing capacity to 42%. It is creating jobs that deconstruction. Pity the farmers that relied on that water. They do not vote for Palaszcuk though, stuff them.
So when is Labor going to pay the debt off? Near $100 billion now isn’t it? That is one hundred thousand million dollars for those poor on maths.
Nom, or whatever the hell you are calling yourself this week:
Normally I try to ignore your hysterical, left-splitting, thesaurus-abusing nonsense, but as Aussie political history happens to be a passion of mine, I can’t let this one go:
This is, to say the least, a pretty warped interpretation of both Australian colonial politics and the modern day situation. A few points:
1) Such comparisons are always fraught with problems, but if you’re going to compare the present day to nineteenth century Australia, it’s actually Labor who are the closest to the colonial Liberals/Protectionists/Reformers, while the Greens would be most analogous to that radical, upstart minor party calling themselves Labour Party. (The conservatives remain conservatives.) Back in the day, the colonial Liberals tried to court the workers, the middle class, and your much-hated bourgeoisie, and increasingly found themselves having their vote eaten away by Labor, getting wedged by both Labor and the conservatives, accused of selling out to big business, and having to govern in minority with Labor. While Labor, like the Greens, often struggled to bridge the divide between remaining pure and making the compromises required to effect change, something that caused numerous splits and regularly hampered their electoral efforts in the first half of the twentieth century.
2) The colonial Libs actually managed some pretty amiable and constructive coalitions with Labor, though many also did break down, sometimes with Labor forming government with Free Traders or other conservatives party (this was back in the days when the Labor movement was still divided on the question of socialism.) There were lots of reasons for these coalitions eventually falling, with both sides copping a lot of the blame. Though, if you read accounts by the likes of Alfred Deakin of these times, they talk about Labor in very similar terms to how many here talk about the Greens.
3) Of course, the colonial Liberals (actual a number of different, loosely organised parties and alliances of independents, who became the Protectionists when Australia federated) were an incredibly broad church with little to no party discipline – you had everything from genuine socialists to lassez-faire libertarians, and most voted according their their conscience. This resulted in both the conservatives (in their federal form as the Free Trade and then Anti-Socialist party, as well as their state equivalents) and Labor both eating into their support. When Deakin – who steadily grew more conservative as his career progressed – eventually sold out and the Protectionists finally merged with then Anti-Socialist Party (the renamed Free-Trade party), it actually split the Protectionists, with many joining Labor or the crossbench in protest.
4) All that said, if the Greens are the political descendants of anyone, it is of that persistent demographic that considers Labor too right-wing for them, which has existed ever since Labor became a party capable of taking government in its own right. The Greens are the latest in a long line that includes Lang Labor, the Communists, and sections of the latter day Democrats. Some sort of left-wing protest party will always exist while Labor remains electable, and its best that those of us in the Labor Party accept that fact and make the best of it.
If that ever happened, it would be the end of the Greens, and they must know that. This isn’t 90s Tasmania – the hatred for the modern day Coalition runs deep in the Greens’ base. Their local candidate was telling me at prepolls last week that most of their volunteers were crying at their wrap party during the 2019 election – noone cared that Larissa Waters had been re-elected, they were just devastated that Morrison had won.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not trying to be an apologist for the Greens. Their parliamentary and electoral tactics often do my head in, and I was pretty frustrated by aspects of their campaign this state election. There’s no doubt there are some (but only some) in the party that do irrationally detest Labor and would prefer decades of conservative rule if it hastens the eventual revolution, just as there are in all hard left movements (and just as there are many in our own ranks, yourself include, with a self-destructive loathing of the Greens.) But I do believe most are genuine in what they believe and what they want to achieve, and don’t think they should be seen so much as an enemy as an annoying younger sibling.
You’ll forgive me if I don’t take advice from the guy whose solution to federal Labor’s present struggles is to lay down and declare that “we are fucked.”
GG:
Oh, fuck off, you pathetic, partisan twat.
The fact that Greens continue to wank on Labor shows that they don’t care about the fascist right wing parties. Including Katter Party (who accepted $100,000K) from a Arms Dealer.
“When a person shows you who they really are – believe them.”
You mean I am like most other people here.
How many people here bitched and complained about what Newman did, but when palaszczuk goes out and destroys lives in no way associated with themselves it is all fine and wonderful in fact encouraged
Before criticising me, people need to look in the mirror first. I am probably more fair then most.
Outsider:
“I’m hard pressed to think of examples where the Greens have won a seat off the conservatives at either Federal or State level”
Er, that would be Maiwar.
Won in 2017, retained in 2020.
Time for a ceasefire?
“I’m hard pressed to think of examples where the Greens have won a seat off the conservatives at either Federal or State level”
Er, that would be Maiwar.
Won in 2017, retained in 2020.
***
Plus Prahran in Vic (defeated Libs) and Ballina in NSW (defeated Nats).
Paul @ #219 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 7:52 pm
Pathetic.
Technically Maiwar was never a LNP seat. It has been with the Greens since inception.
Paul @ #418 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 7:52 pm
Go and suck on your stranded assets.
“The only reason the Greens won South Brisbane is because the Liberals preferenced them,” he said.
“So there’s twice as many Greens in the Queensland Parliament, at least, today because the Liberals supported them.
“Remember that when the Liberals are going around Queensland pretending they’re anti-Green, they actually just gifted them a seat.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-01/jim-chalmers-cheers-queensland-one-nation-and-palmer-losses/12836506
Forevermore shall we know them as Little Libs. Or possibly, the Liberals’ Anti Labor Handmaidens.
“Part of me hopes no vaccine for coronavirus is found in the next four years, just to watch Labor squirm”
***
WTAF
“Forevermore shall we know them as Little Libs. Or possibly, the Liberals’ Anti Labor Handmaidens.”
***
Cat has gone full Briefly now lol
Never said she was. But, at the very least, she displayed very poor judgement in an environment where she must have known the Murdoch press would be looking for anything – anything at all – they can use to bring down the Palazszcuk government. I wonder how much sympathy she would have had for some random backbencher who had done something similar. I wonder what you, Cat, would be saying about such “small ethical infractions” if it were a Coalition minister instead.
Situations like this always remind me of a passage from Julia Gillard’s autobiography, about Mark Arbib’s resignation:
Jackie Trad had become a problem, and needed to get out. It’s not fair, but politics rarely is.
Davidwh:
Maiwar’s “inception” was as Indooroopilly, a blue-ribbon Liberal and LNP seat.
It was renamed in the 2017 redistribution, and gained parts of the abolished seat of Mt Coot-tha. It remained a notional LNP seat, on a margin of 3.0%.
https://www.abc.net.au/dat/news/elections/qld/2017/guide/QLD2017_Redistribution.pdf
Missed this earlier, and felt it deserved to be restated. There is far more going on environmentally in Queensland than just Adani.
ManoSand yes I know but notional doesn’t mean the LNP held it following an election. Indooroopilly had been held by Labor in the past as had Mt Coot-tha. The latter already has a strong Green following.
FriendlyJordies on the Qld result, watch with an open mind 🙂
https://youtu.be/dY86XkxQUPA
Asha, the problem is not that Labor is fucked. It is rather that the dysfunction on the centre-left means the country is fucked. Nothing has been durably resolved on terms favourable to working people since the 1990s. Nor will it. The Greens are the authors of this dysfunction. They are Labor-imposters who offer succour to and benefit from the patronage of the LNP and their clones.
The Greens will contrive with the LNP to keep Labor from power if at all possible for as long as possible. Count on it.
This place is a zoo lol.
If he had any guts, Morrison would have also appeared at the LNP’s concession speech last night. But of course when the going got tough, Morrison got going to some place out of sight.*
*Probably blowing up the inflatable shark & santa he got from Bunnings.
Asha Leu,
I think the comparison to the early ALP is a bit of a stretch given the Greens are well underperforming those standards despite being much better resourced, organised and established than the early ALP. Queensland had its first Labour Government before Federation and there were multiple Labour MPs in every state Parliament. They had a federal majority Government by 1910. The Greens are… not quite there, and their political strategy isn’t going to get them any closer.
I think the unpleasant reality for the ALP is that the inner cities are not what they were 20, 50, 100 or 120 years ago when Labor dominated those areas. If them being held by Greens prevents keeps them in the left collumn for another few decades then it’s not the worst thing. This Queensland election basically gave both Labor and the Greens exactly what they wanted, the ALP got a majority and get to govern how they please, and the Greens won more seats without having to worry about being held accountable for anything they said on the campaign.
Multiple Labour MPs in every Parliament except Tasmania *
Asha….The Communist Party at least had some roots in and attachments to working people. The BLF – forerunner of the CFMEU – comes to mind. The Greens have no such affiliations. They are a bourgeois/radical outcrop that purports to be more Labor than Labor. They are political impersonators. They do not aspire to represent working people. On the contrary, they mistrust and mock working people and seek to throttle their political voices. Their parliamentary successes, such as they have been, arise in the domains of the well-heeled and the genteel. They have almost nothing in common with the CPA other than an elitist contempt for Labor.
There is still two seats that Labor will gain (they are ahead by slim margin):
NICKLIN / BUNDABERGE
Non, you’ve had some interesting observations here – some with a slight ring of truth (yes a lot of Greens are millionaires, who will never vote or preference Labor in their life – but we know that already, right?). But you lost me there talking about unknown entities “keeping Labor from power”. Not sure if you noticed, but pretty sure AP just won a landslide for Labor, as repeatedly predicted by yours truly
Bugler:
Oh, no doubt. Historical comparisons are always inexact at best, and the late nineteenth century was a very different time.
To play devil’s advocate for a bit, though, every party back then was a horrendously disorganized rabble compared to any modern political outfit, the political establishment was far less, well, established, and the parliaments were far more chaotic, with frequent motions of no confidence, changes of government, and lopsided electoral results. It was easier for small parties and movements to break through, since the governments and oppositions of the day were mainly composed of loosely-aligned independents who shifted allegiances constantly, especially when one had the naturally large base of disaffected workers that the state Labour parties had.
Which isn’t to discount the ALP’s achievements in the slightest – they are basically the only
minor party in Australian history to become a natural party of government, utterly changed the country’s political landscape into Labor and Anti-Labor Parties, and did it in only a couple of decades. We’ll probably never see something like that in Australia again in our lifetimes.
Can’t disagree with any of this. And I reckon many in the QLD Greens are probably secretly quite relieved they don’t have the balance of power.
citizen @ #236 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 8:36 pm
Won’t be long before he jumps it.
Perparim @ #211 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 6:26 pm
Paul is an LNP talking points bot
Whoops, just noticed a pretty serious mistake in my quote from the Gillard book:
That should obviously read: “I’m going to do the right thing.”
Clive says:
Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 8:56 pm
Clive, the obstruction of Labor is a declared goal of the Greens. They openly hope to prevent the formation of Labor majorities. They hope this might lead to power-sharing, but it could equally-well lead to the formation of LNP governments, as happened in 2019. They are indifferent to this, even if their supporters are distraught.
Briefly:
“The Greens are not a left voice. They are Labor-phobic. True, they purport to be Labor-friendly (or, rather, more Labor than Labor) but the reality is they utterly detest Labor and hope for Labor’s political extinction. In this, they have a collegial ethos that sits them right alongside the LNP with ON, with Palmer…with every other reactionary splinter group.”
Wow. Do you actually believe this? You actually have to convince yourself of this absurdity to make sense of your world? Truly delusional. Trumpian level delusion.
Anyone on the ground know what the heck happened with Andrew Barlett in Clayfield, by the way? Seems like he seriously underperformed for such a high profile candidate.
Morrison tried to run for Frecklington….pure sexism, and an insult to Queenslanders to boot. Morrison lost yesterday as well.
The Greens-Labor spats obscure the real issue: that climate change and a range of other environmental challenges are THE problem for the next 50 years at least. In this sense, all elections are about climate. If the returned answer is “we don’t think it matters” (as in 2012 and 2018 federally) , then it gets asked again by natural events until the answer changes.
Unless the Coalition can change their spots on this, they are doomed in the longer run (say, by the 2040s). Maybe Labor too, although they are marginally better positioned.