Queensland election plus one day

Determining the exact size of Annastacia Palaszczuk’s slightly increased majority.

Click here for full Queensland election results updated live.

The bugs in my election results facility are largely dealt with now, some niggles notwithstanding – here you will find booth results in a far more manageable form than offered by the ECQ, and the only swing data at booth level available anywhere. This will updated live throughout the final stages of the count, although the ECQ’s move to the separately published “official” count either today or tomorrow will need to be finessed. If you find any value in this labour-intensive effort, gestures of appreciation in the form of donations are gratefully received through the “Become a Supporter” button at the top of the page.

My results system is giving Labor 50 out of the 52 seats in which they currently lead the two-party count, and the LNP 29 of their 34, with the Greens to win two barring late-count surprises at Labor’s expense in McConnel and Cooper, and the cross-bench otherwise being a status quo of three Katter’s Australian Party, one One Nation and one independent. In the few cases where my system disagrees, I suspect it is because the ABC is projecting the two-party result in large pre-poll centres that have so far reported only the primary vote. A large pre-poll booth in Hervey Bay is one such, while another pre-poll booth in the seat hasn’t reported at all. Hervey Bay also hasn’t reported any postals yet, which went around 63-37 to the LNP in 2017 compared with 59-41 in the electorate at large. Even so, even the ABC projection has Labor’s lead at 3.2% compared with a raw 4.9%, so they would have to be rated the strong favourite.

My system and the ABC’s are agreed that the LNP is not yet home and dry in Burleigh, Chatsworth, Coomera and Currumbin, but my fifth LNP in-doubt seat is Clayfield and the ABC’s is Glass House, which mine is giving away just barely. I would think it likely that the LNP will get home in all of them. I presume the ABC’s call of Clayfield relates to it projecting a two-party result from the Clayfield Early Voting Centre, which as yet has only reported on the primary vote and accounts for more than a quarter of the current primary vote total. Labor will need to achieve something special in Glass House out of the Woodford Early Voting Centre, which hasn’t reported on either the primary or two-party count. I also wouldn’t be too amazed if Labor’s leads in LNP-held Bundaberg and Nicklin failed to survive the late count, and their existing total of 50 proves their final score, one up on the result from 2017.

I’ll offer a more in-depth analysis of the situation tomorrow, together with ongoing commentary on the late count.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

290 comments on “Queensland election plus one day”

  1. Greens to take two seats in QLD parliament

    The Greens are on track to claim at least two seats in Queensland parliament after ejecting former Labor deputy premier Jackie Trad from South Brisbane.

    Greens candidate Amy MacMahon claimed victory on Saturday night, with a statewide primary vote for her party of just under 10 per cent as counting continued.

    “The Greens have been going out with this really positive vision for the future of Queensland where we can use the state’s enormous wealth to fully fund our essential services,” she told ABC TV.

    “Everyday Queenslanders have responded as you can see. We are so excited about this opportunity to fight for everyday Queenslanders.”

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6993336/greens-to-take-two-seats-in-qld-parliament/

  2. So incredibly proud of Amy! Taking out a former deputy premier and possible future premier is such a huge achievement. The spotlight was on her and she delivered under immense pressure. AMY, AMY, AMY, AMY! That election night party of her’s was going off!! 😀

    Wonderful to see the huge surges in the Greens primary vote in Brisbane. Michael Berkman’s primary in Maiwar has surged by a whooping 14%! A fourteen percent swing! That’s an emphatic endorsement if ever I’ve seen one.

    And this is in Queensland! I keep pinching myself when I’m reminded of that! In recent weeks we have certainly seen the massive swinging pendulum shift to the left as more and more people turn to the Greens. The left is on the rise!

  3. I actually expected LNP to lose more in the SEQ and Labor to lose more in NQ. Not end up with essentially the status quo.

    End result was about what I expected. There is no way the LNP could possibly stick with Frecklington or Mander now. They have failed spectacularly. Hardly a ringing endorsement of Palaszczuk either, only winning a handful of seats compared to the NZ result. If the federal government cuts off the money line due to their extreme debt, I expect things will get difficult for palaszczuk and she will pull the pin while she is ahead. I still think her rein is more due to pure luck then talent. Scare campaigns absolutely work.

    LNP lost in 2015 due to their stupid actions. Labor won in 2017 due to the newman bogeyman. Labor won in 2020 due to the coronavirus/newman bogeyman.

  4. The headline is Labor winning with an increased majority. I fail to see why a Greens political party MP is worthy of 4 posts. But whatever.

  5. Probably because the greens have doubled their seats. Hardly a great result in my book but whatever floats your boat I guess.

  6. Hardly a ringing endorsement of Palaszczuk either, only winning a handful of seats compared to the NZ result.
    ————————

    Er no….. In a normal environment, for a third term government to increase its majority is very rare. Less so at the moment probably due to the pandemic dominating all else. But for the LNP not to even hold the line seems pretty dismal.

  7. In NZ Labor won 53.3% of the seats.

    In Qld (At 49 seats) That is 52.6%. Another seat and they would of won more seats then NZ Labor(percentage wise).

  8. Most of the pre-election commentary suggested the Greens were favoured to hold Maiwar, that Sth Brisbane was a possible, but that the other mooted possibilities such as McConnel were a bridge too far. I didn’t hear any suggestion of Cooper being seriously in contention. So the Greens did OK relative to expectations in my book. Building reliable footholds from nothing in inner city Melbourne, Sydney, Canberra and now Brisbane has been the story of the last decade or so for the Greens. No one can know if that trend will continue or for how long.

  9. William, the booth results in your election facility are a real winner – congratulations!

    I don’t know if you can include postal ballots issued?

  10. So Labor basically ‘fluked’ three election wins through no action of their own just luck- including one from less than ten seats and one to extend their term to 10 years…I dont think so.

  11. ‘So incredibly proud of Amy! Taking out a former deputy premier and possible future premier is such a huge achievement.’

    Typical Greens. Thrilled to sabotage Labor talent and are proud of it. They will have no influence in the next parliament.

  12. ALP has entrenched itself for another four years,has a foothold in the sunshine coast and made big inroads into the GC. It also held everything in NQ,so much for the
    LNPs vote magnet indigenous youth crime solution.This would be a dream result for Labor to end up at about 51 to 52 seats. Labor may struggle in 4 years but as Paul mentioned there will have to be big changes. A demerger may be the ticket as I feel the merger was just a national party power grab. With SEQ gradually dominating Queensland politics and the Nats brand not floating any boats up in NQ and Far Q, I feel the Libs should jettison the Bible belt Nats and strive for more of a secular party free from the religious dogma. In other words more socially accepting but in true Liberal style propagating laissez-faire type policies and the primacy of private interests over the public good.

  13. Hi William. Thank you for all you do for us. On your results you have Hill as an ALP gain – it should be a KAP Retain. The chances of Labor or anyone else defeating KAP in this part of the world would be remote.

  14. And this is in Queensland! I keep pinching myself when I’m reminded of that! In recent weeks we have certainly seen the massive swinging pendulum shift to the left as more and more people turn to the Greens. The left is on the rise!

    Dream on. In fact, Labor-phobic votes have switched (or been diverted) from the LNP to the Greens in affluent districts. In electorates where elections are decided by working people, the Green vote fell.

    But keep pinching yourself. One day you’ll awaken from the dream.

    Labor very correctly made it clear they would not entertain a power sharing arrangement with the Greens and have attracted an increase in their vote and in their seats.

  15. @jackson.

    That is the headline. But it’s not very interesting.

    Between qld almost never electing the lnp, labor winning the 2pp polling the whole time, dominating in the preferred premier and net sat polling, receiving a rally round the flag boost and a seperate boost for managing COVID well, it was never in doubt whether labor would win seats off the LNP in net. The only points of interest this election were if ON lost their seat, greens gained any, or any kap/inde gains off the lnp. Of those, the only noteworthy change is greens seats, hence why it gets a lot of discussion.

  16. The people trying to dress this up as a poor result for Labor crack me up. They won a third term with an increased majority, after everyone had written them off as goners last year. I’m sure Palaczszuk was crying herself to sleep last night at the thought of four years with a comfortable majority in a unicameral parliament.

    As for how the next election goes – everyone was certain Labor would be gone in 2017, and again at this election. So, who the hell knows? In 2024 we might well be seeing a whole lot of shocked and bitter conservative commentators trying to put a happy face on another failure once again.

  17. Thanks for your efforts, William!

    Overall, a great result for progressive politics in Qld. Let’s hope Labor can replicate something like this in central and nth Qld next federal election.

    On the Greens, note that they targeted a small handful of seats – Maiwar, Sth Bris, Cooper. They did well in those seats, but I would argue that was for quite particular reasons. In Maiwar, they had the benefit of incumbency, and played that well. In Sth Brisbane, they had the LNP and Curious Snail gunning for Trad (who still had less than 2% swing against her, mind you). In Cooper, former ALP member Kate Jones decided to retire very close to the election, leaving a gap into which the Greens slid.

    Also in Greenslopes, the Greens recorded a solid swing against Cameron Dick, but Labor still has a +40% primary vote so good luck with that.

    However, in many comparable seats nearby to these three, Labor had swings to it. E.g. Miller, Bulimba, McConnel. I’d be interested to hear from Brisbnde Greens people if there as much of effort put in on the ground in these seats – I didn’t see much in the northern end of Miller (abutting Sth Brisbane).

    Also interesting to note was the support for One Nation and indpendents in Clayfield and Stafford, with swings away from Labor, Liberal and Green. I always thought there was something weird about Brisbane’s northern suburbs.

  18. Not to mention the forces rallied against AP and the ALP- the state opposition, the Federal Govt, every newspaper and the wider media, the business community, One Nation, Katter, Palmer’s money, Mayor of Brisbane and the Gold Coast …..it is an extraordinary result.

  19. “So Labor basically ‘fluked’ three election wins through no action of their own just luck”

    No I said Palaszczuk has won on luck rather then talent.

    Look at the state of Queensland. Debt is huge, I heard now it is the absolute worst in the country. Unemployment rate is consistently fighting to be the worst in the country. Business confidence is low.

    What amazing things has Labor achieved in the past six years? Wow, they shut a door, amazing. Give me an unlimited credit card and I can keep people happy all the time.

    Take the free money away and where would Labor be?

  20. Dandy Murray says:
    Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 9:14 am
    Thanks for your efforts, William!

    Overall, a great result for progressive politics in Qld. Let’s hope Labor can replicate something like this in central and nth Qld next federal election.

    Never fear. At the forthcoming federal election, the Greens will campaign against Labor once again. They’ll play tag with the LNP in order to prop up the LNP hold on QLD seats. This profits both the Greens and the LNP and is a sure bet. Federal Labor have to persuade Queensland voters that Labor is on their side wrt economic policies. Hopefully they can begin to undo the LNP’s grip.

    The very gratifying result yesterday was only possible because Labor declared they would have nothing to do with the Greens. This message has to be pitched again and again in Queensland.

  21. Paul:

    “What amazing things has Labor achieved in the past six years?”

    Well, they regained government from a base of 7 MPs.

    That was certainly ‘amaaaazing’, as (the other) Tim and Debbie would say.

  22. Result seems a bit like a milder version of the NZ election with COVID incumbency and success having something to do with it

    Missed it by that much so far in Cooper and McConnel for the Greens, though with the only changing seat against the government of the election so far, that looks like a successful campaign to me, particularly in the covid world of 2020. If not quite up to some expectations after the ACT election.
    ONP and LNP seem to have been sent backwards in one way or another, good to see.

    The enormous money, lies and blather thrown at trying to smash and tarnish Labor and the Greens, via Fed LNP, Scomo, Murdoch, Clive and minerals council et al, evidently didn’t have the effect they might have been hoping for. Same for added Labor lies about the Greens preferencing the LNP etc.
    Good to see AP succeed against that

    There was a fair bit of hilarious discussion between the Lib and Lab panellists on ABC arguing about whose fault it was the Greens were doing so well in Brisbane.

    Once in, Greens MPs at state level do tend to stick, I think because they’re actually more able to listen, respond and represent or speak out on behalf their constituents.

    Qld stands to be continually impacted by climate change and it’s growing challenges whoever got in. It matters more what gets done over the next years. Let’s hope it’s more about science and data than partisan tropes. The reefs and the rainforests, the rivers, water and land, don’t function on the basis of party political BS.

  23. Asha Leu says:
    Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 9:15 am
    Briefly, your hyperbolic nonsense really does Labor no favours.

    The hyperbole published here today was produced by FF. Their claims are wildly exaggerated and misleading.

    The Green vote in QLD is very locally focussed and relies upon the Labor-phobic. True story.

  24. Paul:

    “What amazing things has Labor achieved in the past six years?”

    A government bench, and a ministry, both 50% women.

    By Australian standards, pretty amazing.

  25. ABC’s now predicting 52 seats for Labor and 34 for the LNP. If true, that’s a solid, respectable win, not some narrow, just-scraped-in sort of deal.

  26. Non:

    “The Green vote in QLD … relies upon the Labor-phobic.”

    And yet … in 2017, in Cooper (a seat the Greens came close to winning this time) …

    … 89% of Greens voters preferenced Labor?

    “Labor-phobic”? Please explain?

  27. Paul:

    What amazing things has Labor achieved in the past six years?

    Re-introduced and held the line on land-clearing restrictions, against fierce opposition from the agricultural lobbies who’d prefer to raze the state to the ground.

    A rapid shift to the use of renewables, again against fierce opposition from the climate deniers.

    Sensible economic policy wherein the downturn is combated through borrowing, stimulus, and infrastructure (just as the Rudd government successfully did in 08-09), rather than the reckless austerity measures (the worst thing you can do in a recession) proposed by the opposition. You complain about debt, but borrowing to fund services, economic relief, and infrastructure is exactly what should be happening in a downturn.

    Finally reformed the state’s bafflingly archaic abortion laws.

    Reversed Newman’s predatory workplace comp “reforms.”

    Kept Queensland (mostly) free from Covid amidst the whining and bullying from conservatives on all levels, allowing businesses to stay open and life to remain more or less normal. Yes, there have been job losses – of course there have, we’re in the midst of both a pandemic and a recession – but imagine how worse they would have been if we opened up when Deb and Dutton and Clive wanted us to, had a second-wave, and then had to fully lock down for months like Victoria.

    Generally competent, informed, measured governance. May not sound like much, but you’re unlikely to see it from the clusterfuck that is the Queensland LNP.

    Not much in the way of big, flashy reforms that make good headlines, no, just a government doing the sorts of things governments are supposed to do.

  28. Quoll @ #33 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 6:28 am

    Result seems a bit like a milder version of the NZ election with COVID incumbency and success having something to do with it

    Missed it by that much so far in Cooper and McConnel for the Greens, though with the only changing seat against the government of the election so far, that looks like a successful campaign to me, particularly in the covid world of 2020. If not quite up to some expectations after the ACT election.
    ONP and LNP seem to have been sent backwards in one way or another, good to see.

    The enormous money, lies and blather thrown at trying to smash and tarnish Labor and the Greens, via Fed LNP, Scomo, Murdoch, Clive and minerals council et al, evidently didn’t have the effect they might have been hoping for. Same for added Labor lies about the Greens preferencing the LNP etc.
    Good to see AP succeed against that

    There was a fair bit of hilarious discussion between the Lib and Lab panellists on ABC arguing about whose fault it was the Greens were doing so well in Brisbane.

    Once in, Greens MPs at state level do tend to stick, I think because they’re actually more able to listen, respond and represent or speak out on behalf their constituents.

    Qld stands to be continually impacted by climate change and it’s growing challenges whoever got in. It matters more what gets done over the next years. Let’s hope it’s more about science and data than partisan tropes. The reefs and the rainforests, the rivers, water and land, don’t function on the basis of party political BS.

    Fantastic that Labor did so well. I thought the Labor guy on the ABC panel, I want to say Deputy Premier but i have to hope I’m wrong, but his efforts on the greens was some of the most stupidest childish rubbish I’ve seen in a long long time from an ALP person. It was really really poor, unfitting for a MP let alone a cabinet member.

  29. Morning all. Beautiful day. Sun shining, birds singing, conservative media tragics bemoaning Labor’s win.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MAB3ayHSfw8

    I don’t see how anyone can call this a status quo result. Labor has increased its primary vote and retained virtually all of its seats. Margins are increased. One Nation has been smashed, leaving the LNP far less room to harvest racist preferences via dog whistling in future. When Alan Jones is grumpy you know its bad for the LNP.

    Can whoever ran the Labor campaign please be drafted into running the next Federal one?

    PS The loss of the gaff-prone Jacky Trad strengthens Labor.

  30. Paul @ #29 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 6:18 am

    “So Labor basically ‘fluked’ three election wins through no action of their own just luck”

    No I said Palaszczuk has won on luck rather then talent.

    Look at the state of Queensland. Debt is huge, I heard now it is the absolute worst in the country. Unemployment rate is consistently fighting to be the worst in the country. Business confidence is low.

    What amazing things has Labor achieved in the past six years? Wow, they shut a door, amazing. Give me an unlimited credit card and I can keep people happy all the time.

    Take the free money away and where would Labor be?

    This is the kind of stupid Queenslandeer that I expected to vote a lot more. But seems this particular kind of stupid isn’t a majority even in Queensland.

  31. PS The loss of the gaff-prone Jacky Trad strengthens Labor.

    Disagree completely the loss of Jacky Trad shows Murdoch and the LNP goons they can take out Labor people any time they like and that enough mud will stick, even in otherwise sensible minds.

  32. What is the biggest thing that is driving up QLD unemployment rate?

    We have a very high participation rate.

    The percentage of people in employment in QLD is slightly greater then Australia.

  33. “I thought the Labor guy on the ABC panel, I want to say Deputy Premier but i have to hope I’m wrong, but his efforts on the greens was some of the most stupidest childish rubbish I’ve seen in a long long time from an ALP person. It was really really poor, unfitting for a MP let alone a cabinet member.”

    ***

    Yes! OMG the sooking from Steven Miles was unbelievable. He came across as really bitter and reminded me so much of some of the posters here. It’s like, come on, you’ve just retained gov and all you can do is sulk about the success of the Greens? Really? It was very unbecoming of a deputy premier. You can see why Labor are so upset about losing Trad if he is the best they could come up with to replace her.

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