Click here for full Queensland election results updated live.
The bugs in my election results facility are largely dealt with now, some niggles notwithstanding – here you will find booth results in a far more manageable form than offered by the ECQ, and the only swing data at booth level available anywhere. This will updated live throughout the final stages of the count, although the ECQ’s move to the separately published “official” count either today or tomorrow will need to be finessed. If you find any value in this labour-intensive effort, gestures of appreciation in the form of donations are gratefully received through the “Become a Supporter” button at the top of the page.
My results system is giving Labor 50 out of the 52 seats in which they currently lead the two-party count, and the LNP 29 of their 34, with the Greens to win two barring late-count surprises at Labor’s expense in McConnel and Cooper, and the cross-bench otherwise being a status quo of three Katter’s Australian Party, one One Nation and one independent. In the few cases where my system disagrees, I suspect it is because the ABC is projecting the two-party result in large pre-poll centres that have so far reported only the primary vote. A large pre-poll booth in Hervey Bay is one such, while another pre-poll booth in the seat hasn’t reported at all. Hervey Bay also hasn’t reported any postals yet, which went around 63-37 to the LNP in 2017 compared with 59-41 in the electorate at large. Even so, even the ABC projection has Labor’s lead at 3.2% compared with a raw 4.9%, so they would have to be rated the strong favourite.
My system and the ABC’s are agreed that the LNP is not yet home and dry in Burleigh, Chatsworth, Coomera and Currumbin, but my fifth LNP in-doubt seat is Clayfield and the ABC’s is Glass House, which mine is giving away just barely. I would think it likely that the LNP will get home in all of them. I presume the ABC’s call of Clayfield relates to it projecting a two-party result from the Clayfield Early Voting Centre, which as yet has only reported on the primary vote and accounts for more than a quarter of the current primary vote total. Labor will need to achieve something special in Glass House out of the Woodford Early Voting Centre, which hasn’t reported on either the primary or two-party count. I also wouldn’t be too amazed if Labor’s leads in LNP-held Bundaberg and Nicklin failed to survive the late count, and their existing total of 50 proves their final score, one up on the result from 2017.
I’ll offer a more in-depth analysis of the situation tomorrow, together with ongoing commentary on the late count.
Thanks for posting Muskiemp. I loved watching Ashby unhinge.
‘Fantastic that Labor did so well. I thought the Labor guy on the ABC panel, I want to say Deputy Premier but i have to hope I’m wrong, but his efforts on the greens was some of the most stupidest childish rubbish I’ve seen in a long long time from an ALP person. It was really really poor, unfitting for a MP let alone a cabinet member.’
Claiming the Greens are getting a leg up from LNP preferences? Nah, its not childish its the truth.
Interesting you have a go at Steven Miles as an unfitting MP but you say nothing about senator Amanda Stoker who was clearly trying to bait the other Labor panelists into a fight.
Political Nightwatchman @ #52 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 7:22 am
Of course the LNP joined with News Corp to put the knife to Jackie Trad. We should take some joy in the fact that they had to help elect a green to do it. A beautiful irony. A good thing for Queensland, not a bad thing.
News Corp and the LNP work together as a team, without any principles or ethics. News corp literally hacked the phone of a dead girl, in Australia they have been on the pro-death, ‘virus doesn’t matter’ side. Yet it seemed to come as surprise to Steven Miles that the LNP has no principles, like really where has he been the last 10 years? He seemed genuinely angry about losing Jackie Trad, well if she was so important they should have found her a safe seat. I mean this guy clearly doesn’t have the temperament to be a politician. If he were a woman we’d be calling him hysterical and unbalanced.
Amanda Stoker is an LNP type in the Morrison Government. One of the worst most corrupt Govts in Australian history with a terrible record of human rights abuses at home and abroad. They have been pro-death, pro-virus and they are working for donors and billionaires against action on climate change. She is one of the worst people in the country by association. Yet on the panel she certainly came across as the mature thoughtful one with leadership potential.
Queensland rejected coalition government after seeing NSW and Federal fuck up’s.
Queensland rejected 70% owned murdoch media.
Queensland rejected chaos.
Also to be a good Govt over the next four years the ALP in Queensland is going to need to be stealing Greens policies, so pretending the greens and everything they stand for is equivalent to One Nation is not only vile and dishonest it is an own goal.
So what was this terrible corruption that Trad was meant to be involved with? Selling land valued at 3 million dollars for 33 million? Living with a known corrupt person and lying about it? What was it exactly?
clem attlee says:
Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 10:38 am
You mean this one, clem?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/21/government-paid-10-times-too-much-for-land-at-western-sydney-airport-to-be-used-after-2050
You could also say re south brisbane the vote reflects the sorts of people moving into these areas nowdays and the changing demographics of the green vote. I used to live in West end in the 90s I don’t think I know any feral or punk that could afford or want to live there nowdays.
A final point: this is four elections in a row (NT, ACT, NZ, Qld) where a government that went for strong border and social distancing policies to protect the population from Covid19 got returned with an increased majority. That can’t be coincidence.
Perhaps the RW sociopaths need to learn that most people aren’t too comfortable with a “let her rip” attitude to an incurable disease that can make them sick and more likely kill their elderly parents and grandparents.
Anna Palaszczuck also should quietly buy the Qld CMO and Qld Health testing and tracing teams a beer on Monday. Qld policy was similar to Victoria’s but the policy implementation by Qld Health was almost flawless. Same with Qld Police on the border.
Thank you for your Results Page William. I found it very useful.
Socrates @ #59 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 7:42 am
I think this is entirely and completely correct. Even right wing people I know and work with, who feel obliged to and do sprout openly the whole fake ‘open it up for the economy’s sake’ when confronted with the choice of WA’s hard border or the risk that someone from NSW or Victoria will be in the pub and give them corona, they choose hard border every single time.
What a disappointing undemocratic result – Labor forecast to get 55% of seats with 40% and the Greens get 5% of seats with 10% of the vote.
labor will be congratulating itself on bringing back compulsory preferencing.
No matter the struggle continues for real democracy.
clem attlee @ #56 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 7:38 am
Wasn’t it all just made up by News Corp?
Lars Von Trier @ #62 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 7:56 am
The greens self pack, that isn’t a lack of democracy, it is just basic demographics.
And opv isn’t more democratic it is just a fancy smoke screen for not voting.
Winners are grinners but it’s fundamentally undemocratic wwp.
Lars Von Trier @ #66 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 8:02 am
I’m assuming you require a very large non seat based parliament for your version of what is ‘democratic’.
And if at the next election Labor thinks it would help to get the Greens seats back they’ll swap back to Opv.
the Greens presence in qld parly is the best hope for future democratic change.
Jackie Trad wouldn’t have won last time without LNP preferences,she was living on borrowed time. This time the LNP achieved a pyrrhic victory by removing bogey woman Jackie from the picture. In her place the competent looking Cameron Dick and soft spoken attack man Steven Miles. These guys were able to rip into the LNP including really getting a rise out of windbag Scomoe in his fruitless week long handholding exercise up here with Deb. This left Annastacia to get on with smiling and looking like a down to earth Qlder despite the inevitable Newscorp propaganda. It has been said up here that Annastacia is like the big sister we wish we had and Deb Freckleton is like nasty auntie we actually do have.
Lars
You must be appalled at the level of National party representation in the Federal government.
PrincePlanet:
Yup, losing Jackie Trad was ultimately a net plus for the government, in my view – especially since it hasn’t affected their ability to form a majority. The scandals she was involved in were no doubt massively overblown by Newscorp, as they always are, but they still were totally avoidable ethical lapses that never should have happened and which warranted serious criticism. (And for those saying “bUt ThE lIbS aRe WoRsE”, well, no shit – we’re supposed to be better than the Libs.) Had she won, she likely would have continued being a convenient stick for the LNP to beat us with, especially if she managed to wrangle her way back into cabinet.
Miles is likely miffed since Trad is a close friend of his, but I reckon many in the Labor caucus are probably breathing a sigh of relief over this result.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/guide/sbri
The main reason the Greens won SB is because of the continued surge in our primary vote.
Has to be said, Trad’s vote held up pretty well. That’s what I meant yesterday when I said it’s never easy to take out a high profile incumbent, especially one who had the donkey vote.
I will admit, I was nervous going into it because it had been hyped by the media so much. Was confident but knew Trad would put up a tough fight. So proud of Amy for getting the job done! Huge win for the Qld Greens and the left!
Lars
I’m not getting the problem because the Greens now hold two seats and had they come second in two others then they would hold four. If anything the Greens should be encouraged because these conditions do not suit the Greens politically. This system is far more demographic than multi-member electorates where someone gets elected after coming fourth or fifth with virtually no primary vote support.
Labor romped it way beyond most expectations. You can’t take that from them; on the whole, they ran a good campaign. Most importantly they resisted the right wing media’s crowing for the sacrifice our safety for the sake of short-term corporate turnover. So congratulations to them.
And that’s probably one of the biggest lessons of the night. People are willing to listen to reason, even over the incredibly loud voices in the Murdoch media if common sense has results to show for itself. That gives me a lot of hope.
And as I said on Tally Room, it also demonstrates the importance of the fundamentals of campaigning, both in terms of articulating the overall party narrative and the nuts and bolts of leafletting and doorknocking. ON ran an abysmal campaign, whatever Mr Fisherman-Rape says. The primary beneficiary of that? Clearly Labor, despite conventional wisdom. Because the LNP couldn’t articulate a remotely plausible case for why they would do any better, even in the north where they did everything they possibly could to poke the amygdalas of frightened white people. But it’s also interesting where they – and the Greens, incidently – failed to make serious inroads. I’m thinking primarily of Chatsworth and Clayfield here, and Currumbin to a lesser extent. In Chatsworth Labor preselected their candidate very late in the game, I think less than two months before election day. They would have had next to no time at all to get their boots on the ground and have those one-on-one discussions with voters that are so much more important to the success of a campaign than many commentators seem to realise. In Clayfield they were clearly expecting the Greens to run as the primary opposition, only to see the Greens completely derail and hand what could have been a very flippable seat back to a very tired LNP incumbent. While I’m not sure how Labor did in Currumbin, clearly the LNP candidate ran an energetic campaign herself and resisted the regional swing.
And as I said on Tally Room, clearly there’s a very receptive audience for the Greens and progressive politics across Brisbane, and potentially beyond, which bodes well for their federal prospects if the coalition keeps sleeping on the job and federal Labor continues to suck. Despite what some ALP partisans imagine about Cooper and South Brisbane and so forth, there are an awful lot of lower income voters there, lots of young people who’ve felt the sharp end of neoliberalism and better-things-aren’t-possible centrism. The Greens can absolutely win Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith if they play their cards right. That means selecting good candidates to run good campaigns. I don’t suggest relying on Andrew Bartlett again, for instance, just because he’s a familiar face.
But once again congratulations to Labor. It’s not the result I was hoping for personally but I’m very relieved to see the right-wing psychopaths aren’t taking over the state at least.
Asha Leu @ #71 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 10:41 am
Trad was the bogeywoman on an LNP billboard in Pumicestone electorate. Obviously they were seeing her as a net disadvantage for Labor.
WeWantPaul @ #44 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 9:04 am
That is local politics. The LNP will be tearing themselves apart over their decision to preference the Greens and Steven Miles is stoking the fire.
A lot of the LNP really hate the Greens (far worse than any Labor partisan) and they will be going for the throat of the machine operatives who made the preferencing decision.
Miles’ bitching re: ALP vs GRN was a little unbecoming. The Greens won South Brisbane fair and square. Inner suburban voters very much have a mind of their own, including the LNP voters who preferenced the Green candidate – you can give people a how to vote card, but you can’t make them follow it. I guess they are always going to be short-changed in single member electorates, but then again the ACT Greens got 24% of the seats from 15% of the vote… maybe Queensland does need an upper house again. It’s not your granddad’s Queensland, that’s for sure. It’s not even the Queensland I grew up in in the 1980s.
Strong ALP performance on the Sunshine Coast, yes, but I wonder if anyone who lives in the Sunshine Coast would consider Pumicestone part of that – I have never considered Bribie, Toorbul, Donnybrook to be part of the Sunshine Coast (it snuggles up to Caloundra, but nobody really lives in that bit of the seat). Someone on here or Tallyroom was pointing out it would be a good election for the ALP on the coasts north of Brisbane, and that’s probably the great underreported story here. To win Caloundra (one of 3 Liberal seats left after the first Beattie-slide), get a huge swing in Hervey Bay and be in the hunt in Nicklin is extraordinary.
For all that I give Mander and Frecklington credit for seeing the writing on the wall and accepting it. Nasty recriminations after the fact are not a good look for any party. I wish them, the Greens and Katter well with holding Palaszczuk accountable and making the state of my birth better as long as they drop the loony religious right bullshit. That won’t play in Brisbane outside places like Bridgeman Downs. Growing up with a hard-to-spell Polish name like Stacia I was quite accustomed to being told “go back where you came from” and there’s a part of me that’s proud that now a woman whose name is even worse than mine has won 3 elections on the trot. For the COVID response alone, she should go down as a Labor legend.
The election Writ:
https://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0019/18523/2020-State-general-election-Writ.pdf
edwardo
Feel your pain. The number of times I’ve been asked why I don’t change my name to Sue…..
Mavis @ #78 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 11:32 am
Thanks Mavis. I love the language, but what have patents to do with it?
Our ‘Our Trusty and Well-beloved’ governor’s a bit over the top.
Late Riser:
Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 12:39 pm
[‘Thanks Mavis. I love the language, but what have patents to do with it?’]
I think it refers to Letters Patent:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Letters_patent
And what/where are Queensland’s “Dependencies”?
William
Thanks for Results thread last night. It was so easy to read.
Mavis @ #82 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 11:46 am
Huh.
That’s my “one thing I learned today.”
The only sad thing about last night is that the independent didn’t win Oodgeroo. The LNP guy out there is reportedly a real log and a born again prosperity religion man, known for labelling Jackie Trad ( of Lebanese Christian background) jihad Jackie. A shame the people of Cleveland couldn’t see this guy for what he is and vote in a sensible independent, free of bigoted religious ideology and superstition.He is the kind of guy the LNP needs to cut loose if they want to start going forward.
A few days ago Sky News conducted a vox pop of seniors living on Bribie Island, where almost all of them backed Palaszczuk’s border policy. This should’ve been a warning sign to Frecklington that it was a big mistake to be equivocal on borders, siding with the likes of Morrison, Frydenberg, Hunt, Dutton. The result locally was that Pumicestone was gained by Labor and more generally, the state-wide 5% swing was arguably based on Labor’s borders’ stance. It’s also reasonable to suggest that more than a few Queenslanders were pissed with Morrison coming up here to back Frecklington.
The Gallagher index is a good way of measuring proportionality if you have the time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gallagher_index
MMP seems to be the gold standard.
Mavis @ #87 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 10:44 am
Who would have thought being pro virus and pro death, as Murdoch and the LNP cooperative has been, would be unpopular with people who don’t want the virus and don’t want to die.
That Murodch Warrior Speers, I know he is on loan at #theirABC, can put Qld down to ‘incumbency’ rather than ‘incumbent who was more interested in not seeing you die in a pandemic’ is beyond me, it takes some real determined partisanship and idiocy not to see how poor the pro-virus pro death camp it doing.
The ALP needs to do a lot more work to make sure people understand just how pro death and pro virus Morrison has been at every single step. He should be 30 points under water not leading in the polls.
The bullshit from the LNP and Hanson (via the parasite that is Ashby) and excuses flow –
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-01/jim-chalmers-cheers-queensland-one-nation-and-palmer-losses/12836506
Mavis @ #87 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 12:44 pm
I agree with that, though I personally thought he was a hoot. He was one of Palaszczuk’s best promoters.
* Not wanting to hold Frecklington’s hand. (Miles got him good.)
* Not giving Deb a turn in the “tank” (Deb’s not one of the boys.)
* A bloke from NSW patronizing North Queenslanders (They don’t even like it from Brisbane.)
I’m sure there was more.
PrincePlanet
My local member in Moggill, “iron-clad” Rowan, is another. I take heart from the swing against him.
Here’s a thought. If the LNP are wedged on social issues such as iron-clad’s poorly concealed abortion values, then not only is further erosion possible in Moggill but maybe in other electorates as well. I’m thinking ahead to the upcoming debate on the assisted dying laws. Assisted dying laws will personally and potentially immediately affect the older cohort who I keep reading are more conservatively minded. But I can’t imagine many looking forward to a slow undignified end of life. The only way the LNP will be able to protect the MPs in Oodgeroo and Moggill is by denying them a conscience vote. How that plays out will be interesting. (Maybe it already played a part in this election.)
And Morrsion’s plane ‘breaking down’ and being unable to attend a zoom Cabinet meeting…it was like his whole trip was fishy, concocted and ultimately doomed!
WeWantPaul:
Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 1:54 pm
[‘The ALP needs to do a lot more work to make sure people understand just how pro death and pro virus Morrison has been at every single step. He should be 30 points under water not leading in the polls.’]
Agree. I wonder if Albanese is waiting for the new year before going into attack mode? I mean, there are so many issues that Labor could attack the Morrison Government – eg, C.19 (as you say, the economy v increased deaths), corruption, an integrity commission, the rate of Newstart, child care, and so on. Marles, too, is silent on many issues. Queensland is where governments are formed; Chalmers is looking better by the day.
While it is great to see the Labor win in Queensland, the constant Green-Labor thing is very boring to say the least.
Most of the people I know who now tend to vote Green, were mainly ex-Labor voters. Very few would give the LNP the time of day.
Having said this, when the Greens decide to run a candidate in all seats and attack the LNP rather than get into minority government on the coat tails of Labor, they will have more credibility with me…
And without getting carried away, all the reasons for the Labor win could well be equally applied if and when Morrison decides to go on the hope that incumbency will ensure he wins again….
Roll on March when Labor can return for another term in WA……….
Mavis @ #94 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 11:11 am
Yeah something is needed, the current ‘say nothing until the depression happens and we just win’ seems a lazy strategy.
Late Riser:
Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 1:55 pm
[‘I’m sure there was more.’]
I didn’t seem much of Morrison up here. I wonder if he stayed in a luxury resort. And then there was his excuse for not chairing a scheduled meeting of the National Cabinet, there being a number of safe locations in north Queensland, including HMAS Cairns. Palaszczuk even offered him the use of the government offices on George Street. Just like his Hawaii excursion, I’m sure pics will be leaked in due course.
Albanese and Federal Labor have convinced themselves that they’re not allowed to attack the Coalition or stand up for their own beliefs in anything but the nitpickiest ways. It’s a very bad strategy. Morrison and the Murdoch media have done next to nothing to make Australia safer, or even to protect its economy in the pandemic, they’ve prioritised the tax cuts of millionaires and corporations over the public purse and countless everyday families. In other words, Albo needs to start acting less like a copyeditor and more like an Opposition Leader and alternative Prime Minister.
Furtive Lawngnome @ #98 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 11:32 am
Very much agree.
Tricot, the Greens did run a candidate in all 93 seats:
https://greens.org.au/qld/state-candidates
And the Greens are far more forceful in opposing the LNP than the ALP are. On many issues the ALP cooperate with the LNP. Cash-for-access, money in politics, sucking up to mining companies and property developers etc etc.