Queensland election plus one day

Determining the exact size of Annastacia Palaszczuk’s slightly increased majority.

Click here for full Queensland election results updated live.

The bugs in my election results facility are largely dealt with now, some niggles notwithstanding – here you will find booth results in a far more manageable form than offered by the ECQ, and the only swing data at booth level available anywhere. This will updated live throughout the final stages of the count, although the ECQ’s move to the separately published “official” count either today or tomorrow will need to be finessed. If you find any value in this labour-intensive effort, gestures of appreciation in the form of donations are gratefully received through the “Become a Supporter” button at the top of the page.

My results system is giving Labor 50 out of the 52 seats in which they currently lead the two-party count, and the LNP 29 of their 34, with the Greens to win two barring late-count surprises at Labor’s expense in McConnel and Cooper, and the cross-bench otherwise being a status quo of three Katter’s Australian Party, one One Nation and one independent. In the few cases where my system disagrees, I suspect it is because the ABC is projecting the two-party result in large pre-poll centres that have so far reported only the primary vote. A large pre-poll booth in Hervey Bay is one such, while another pre-poll booth in the seat hasn’t reported at all. Hervey Bay also hasn’t reported any postals yet, which went around 63-37 to the LNP in 2017 compared with 59-41 in the electorate at large. Even so, even the ABC projection has Labor’s lead at 3.2% compared with a raw 4.9%, so they would have to be rated the strong favourite.

My system and the ABC’s are agreed that the LNP is not yet home and dry in Burleigh, Chatsworth, Coomera and Currumbin, but my fifth LNP in-doubt seat is Clayfield and the ABC’s is Glass House, which mine is giving away just barely. I would think it likely that the LNP will get home in all of them. I presume the ABC’s call of Clayfield relates to it projecting a two-party result from the Clayfield Early Voting Centre, which as yet has only reported on the primary vote and accounts for more than a quarter of the current primary vote total. Labor will need to achieve something special in Glass House out of the Woodford Early Voting Centre, which hasn’t reported on either the primary or two-party count. I also wouldn’t be too amazed if Labor’s leads in LNP-held Bundaberg and Nicklin failed to survive the late count, and their existing total of 50 proves their final score, one up on the result from 2017.

I’ll offer a more in-depth analysis of the situation tomorrow, together with ongoing commentary on the late count.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

290 comments on “Queensland election plus one day”

Comments Page 4 of 6
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  1. Nicholas @ #145 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 4:49 pm

    Doyley, you condone corrupt behaviour – and in doing so you make a small contribution to enabling that corruption to continue. And what is in it for you? You get to maintain your cred as a pompous centrist twat? How pathetic.

    The fact that the forms of corruption we are talking about are currently legal doesn’t make them right.

    How’s Tara Reade going, Nicholas? 😀

  2. ‘Those obsessing over the greens political party – it’s boring and irrelevant.’

    Agreed. The Greens have 2 seats in QLD parliament, while KAP has 3 seats in QLD parliament. Yet the Greens get 100o times more the comments then KAP. Move on.

  3. Asha Leusays:
    Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 5:06 pm
    Christ, there are some boring fucking bastards on this website.
    ——————————
    Your not wrong.

  4. Political Nightwatchman @ #153 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 5:10 pm

    ‘Those obsessing over the greens political party – it’s boring and irrelevant.’

    Agreed. The Greens have 2 seats in QLD parliament, while KAP has 3 seats in QLD parliament. Yet the Greens get 100o times more the comments then KAP. Move on.

    The KAP never come on PB with the full on FIGJAM and embellish their achievements with their special brand of sanctimonious twaddle.

  5. Ah, the PB rusted-ons, never change.

    Great night for Labor and the Greens, bad night for the LNP, atrocious night for One Nation. What’s not to love? But you’d think Labor’d lost the election from the sulking of a handful of the usual suspects.

    That said, after last night, I really hope for Labor’s sake that a) Palaszczuk doesn’t have any plans to go anywhere, and b) Dick and not Miles is the fallback, because if Miles is, the LNP are home and hosed when it comes to that. It’s no surprise to see Labor panellists getting into some Green-hating (Anthony Chisholm representing the normal variety), but Miles positively started frothing at the mouth whenever the Greens or the other minor parties came up in a way I’ve never seen an actual minister do on live TV, and Amanda Stoker was just running rings around him for the fun of it.

    Stoker is a prime candidate for the most objectionable person in Australian politics, but she was hysterical to watch last night, because she kept a lid on her own crazy, realised that Miles just couldn’t control himself and turned whiny and feral if they came up, and decided to make it an unusually entertaining panel. Left to his own devices, he’d manage to elect Premier Frecklington in no time.

  6. Rebecca @ #157 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 5:23 pm

    Ah, the PB rusted-ons, never change.

    Great night for Labor and the Greens, bad night for the LNP, atrocious night for One Nation. What’s not to love? But you’d think Labor’d lost the election from the sulking of a handful of the usual suspects.

    That said, after last night, I really hope for Labor’s sake that a) Palaszczuk doesn’t have any plans to go anywhere, and b) Dick and not Miles is the fallback, because if Miles is, the LNP are home and hosed when it comes to that. It’s no surprise to see Labor panellists getting into some Green-hating (Anthony Chisholm representing the normal variety), but Miles positively started frothing at the mouth whenever the Greens or the other minor parties came up in a way I’ve never seen an actual minister do on live TV, and Amanda Stoker was just running rings around him for the fun of it. Stoker is a prime candidate for the most objectionable person in Australian politics, but she was hysterical to watch last night, because she kept a lid on her own crazy, realised that Miles just couldn’t control himself, and decided to make it an unusually entertaining panel. Left to his own devices, he’d manage to elect Premier Frecklington in no time.

    Except he didn’t.

    How many seats did Labor win?

    Who is the Government?

    Do the Greens really matter going forward?

  7. I can’t believe the hand-wringing of some of the supposed lefties here. This was a great night for Labor. It was a damn good one for the Greens too. Despite what the Brieflys of the world might have you believe, those two things arn’t mutually exclusive. Meanwhile, it was a dreadful night for the LNP, One Nation, and Clive Palmer, the former of which have seen their “brief stint out of power until that chaotic Palazczsuk minority government inevitably falls” turn into at least nine years in opposition.

    As for how Labor deals with the rise of the Greens in Brisbane, I do think we’ll have to start seriously thinking about best to reach out to those voters without alienating regional Queensland. It’ll be tricky, but it’s far from impossible, especially with a decent majority and four more years in the government benches. I’m not sure what the solution is, though I can tell you what the solution *isn’t* and that is bitching and moaning about how unfair it all is.

  8. The defensiveness is bizarre. Labor got what they wanted. Greens got what they wanted. Everybody on the left wins.

    Thankfully, Miles didn’t have the chance to wreck it for them, because Palaszczuk is leader, Palaszczuk is actually competent, and Miles hasn’t gotten enough primetime to show his arse when it matters. If he could have *Amanda Stoker* run rings around him on live television because he couldn’t control himself, how would he cope if challenged by a less extreme LNP figure?

  9. Asha Leu @ #160 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 5:30 pm

    I can’t believe the hand-wringing of some of the supposed lefties here. This was a great night for Labor. It was a damn good one for the Greens too. Despite what the Brieflys of the world might have you believe, those two things arn’t mutually exclusive. Meanwhile, it was a dreadful night for the LNP, One Nation, and Clive Palmer, the former of which have seen their brief stint out of power until that chaotic Palazczsuk minority government inevitably falls turn into at least nine years in opposition.

    As for how Labor deals with the rise of the Greens in Brisbane, I do think we’ll have to start seriously thinking about best to reach out to those voters without alienating regional Queensland. It’ll be tricky, but it’s far from impossible, especially with a decent majority and four more years in the government benches. I’m not sure what the solution is, though I can tell you what the solution *isn’t* and that is bitching and moaning about how unfair it all is.

    A good summation.

    Anna P has a golden opportunity to now set up the regions for a glorious transition into clean and prosperous future for all the communities. Please don’t waste it by cowering to the fossil fuel union power.

  10. To be fair to Stephen Miles, I think wasn’t so much trying to sledge the Greens as he was pointing out that the LNP base may not react well to their party helping the Greens win more seats. That “every decision they make in parliament” (or WTTE) thing was clearly a call-out to the LNP true believers that, hey, your own party did this, as well as quite possibly testing out the line the ALP would run on were they forced to form government with the Greens (ie. “the opposition can’t complain about us governing with Greens support when their own preferences created this situation.”) It wasn’t especially well stated, but he was clearly emotional about his friend losing her seat.

    I do agree that, while Miles seems like a nice guy and an effective minister, he probably isn’t premier material. He just seems to be lacking those essential gravitas, and the personality traits that make him endearing at the moment may well turn public opinion against him were he the man in charge.

  11. If you’re looking for historically safe Liberal seats somewhere in Australia that are potentially ripe for the taking by the Greens (or the right sort of independent), the antics of the local member have surely put Kew close to the top of the list.

  12. The defensiveness is bizarre. Labor got what they wanted. Greens got what they wanted. Everybody on the left wins.

    Yep. And the Courier Mail won’t be able to fill their papers with negative press about Jackie Trad day after day anymore, either.

    I do really hope the rest of the frontbench have their shit together re conflicts of interest, however.

  13. Voice endeavour says:
    Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 3:10 pm
    What is the go with this ‘greens won south brisbane on lib preferences’ thing?

    The greens won the primary vote over labor by 4%.

    The Greens have taken seats from Labor on the back of LNP primaries….on the back of Labor-phobic primaries. Green MPs in these seats will find their future consists of fighting Labor rather than the LNP. These MPs will become increasingly Labor-phobic. That is, they will become more like the LNP as time passes – more responsive to the economic imperatives of their constituents.

    The divide has always been and will remain the choice between the Labor-friendly and the Labor-phobic. The overlap between the LNP and the Greens will become more obvious and more extensive as time passes, following the vehemently anti-Labor polemics we already see rehearsed every day by Green voices.

    This is the future for the Greens: Labor-phobia.

    There is an inherent contradiction in this for them. They will become self-wedging.

  14. Asha Leu @ #163 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 5:42 pm

    To be fair to Stephen Miles, I think wasn’t so much trying to sledge the Greens as he was pointing out that the LNP base may not react well to their party helping the Greens win more seats. That “every decision they make in parliament” (or WTTE) thing was clearly a call-out to the LNP true believers that, hey, your own party did this, as well as quite possibly testing out the line the ALP would run on were they forced to form government with the Greens (ie. “the opposition can’t complain about us governing with Greens support when their own preferences created this situation.”) It wasn’t especially well stated, but he was clearly emotional about his friend losing her seat.

    I do agree that, while Miles seems like a nice guy and an effective minister, he probably isn’t premier material. He just seems to be lacking those essential gravitas, and the personality traits that make him endearing at the moment may well turn public opinion against him were he the man in charge.

    Miles seems to have the intestinal fortitude to get things done, but he ought to spend some time studying how Daniel Andrews presents in front of a microphone.

  15. Rebecca says:
    Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 5:37 pm
    The defensiveness is bizarre. Labor got what they wanted. Greens got what they wanted. Everybody on the left wins.

    The Greens are not a left voice. They are Labor-phobic. True, they purport to be Labor-friendly (or, rather, more Labor than Labor) but the reality is they utterly detest Labor and hope for Labor’s political extinction. In this, they have a collegial ethos that sits them right alongside the LNP with ON, with Palmer…with every other reactionary splinter group.

  16. We’ve had Greens lower house MPs who’ve taken seats from Labor for 10 years now. Suffice to say, they’ve not turned more right-wing or found common cause with the LNP, since that would spite their constituents and obviously cost them seats, and voting according to your electorate’s actual preferences has proven to be massively successful in re-electing Green incumbents who won their seat at general elections. These Labor stan fantasies are very strange.

    The Greens will never be anti-Labor in anything like the way a bunch of Labor Right types are anti-Green.

  17. Asha Leu says:
    Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 5:48 pm

    Man, am I glad Briefly is not in a position of power in the ALP.

    You should be more concerned about the choices made by the Greens. They chose some long time ago to position themselves as an anti-Labor cohort. This conditions their politics – their polemics, their strategies, their campaign efforts.

    They are an intrinsically bourgeois/radical schism. The future for them lies in making a compromise with bourgeois/business elements that can no longer stomach the enviro-reactionaries of the LNP. The Greens will one day find themselves in league with the Liberal/Rural rump in an effort to displace Labor. This will come completely naturally to them. Just wait. It will happen. The existential demands of political conflict will determine this.

    The Greens are political descendants of colonial Liberals – reformists that despised Labor as well as the reactionaries. The Greens – elected to represent bourgeois voters – will become voices of the bourgeoisie. No doubt about that.

  18. BT
    If there was a seat to the west of Burke Road covering Kew and Hawthorn than i could see the Greens being competitive but the current Kew boundary extends into unfriendly areas for the Greens that played a big part in Frydenberg being returned.

    Rebecca
    Is Stoner really the most objectionable politician when the parliament has MP’s like Roberts Porter and Dutton.

  19. Rebecca says:
    Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 5:54 pm

    We’ve had Greens lower house MPs who’ve taken seats from Labor for 10 years now.

    Yes. The Greens are Labor-hostile. They take seats from Labor with the assistance of Labor-phobic/LNP voters. A similar process allowed Zali Steggall to defeat Abbott. Make no mistake. If the bourgeoisie can see the easiest way to defeat Labor is to pref the Greens, they will do it. Correspondingly, MPs elected by the bourgeoisie will espouse the causes and values of their own voters. No problem.

    The Labor-phobia of the Greens is practically genetic by now. This is their past. It is their future too.

  20. I believe in the Greens,
    the Party almighty,
    protector of the earth,
    of all things visible and invisible.

    I believe in one Lord Bob Brown,
    the Only true leader,
    born of the Franklin, before all else.

    Green from Green, Brown from Brown,
    true Green from true Brown,
    biodynamically grown, not manufactured,
    through him all Policies were made.
    For us of all genders, creeds and colors
    he ascended to the Senate,
    and in the Unrespresentative Swill
    he found meaning, and became manifest.

    He ascended into myth
    and is seated at the right hand of the Suzuki.
    His Will come again
    to judge the Greens, reds and Watermelons
    and his influence will have no end
    Except for the blues, who are non-believers.
    Amen

  21. Rebecca:

    I think the presence of “haters” in both the Greens and Labor is heavily overstated. Don’t get me wrong, they exist – on both sides – but I think there’s generally a recognition from both members and MPs from either party that, despite our differences, we are on the same side.

    I’ve seen very little hatred for the Greens within Queensland Labor, at least. Frustration, sure, especially when our environmental record is so frequently misrepresented. Bemusement, too, like when Berkman had to be informed that his proposed amendments to land-clearing legislation would have actually made land-clearing easier. But the attitude of some of the narcissistic partisans here is most definitely an outlier within Labor, in my experience – and I imagine the same can be said about the Greens and some of their more, er, unpleasant cheerleaders on Poll Bludger. I seriously doubt, for example, many Greens in QLD wanted the LNP to win just to stick it to Labor for Adani, as some alleged Greens have expressed a wish for here.

  22. How is it that when Labor needs the Greens to govern continually that they work well together?

    Is it because the Greens keep Labor tethered to the left while without the Greens labor get pulled to the right?

  23. The Greens would swoop on the chance to form a Government in concert with the LNP. They will be smacking their lips today, celebrating a win on the back of LNP prefs, thinking how good it would be to repeat that in leafy riverside seat after leafy seaside seat. They will be thinking how good it would be not to have to worry about working class voters ever again. They have clearly passed the zenith of their support as Labor-impersonators. The jig is up for them. They will swerve away from their scruples. Count on it.

  24. Mexican, there is plenty of corruption that is perfectly legal under the laws as they stand. Cameron Murray wrote a whole book about it. The fact that much of the corruption is legal is actually a huge part of the problem, not a reason to make excuses for it.

  25. Nicholas @ #178 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 6:19 pm

    Mexican, there is plenty of corruption that is perfectly legal under the laws as they stand. Cameron Murray wrote a whole book about it. The fact that much of the corruption is legal is actually a huge part of the problem, not a reason to make excuses for it.

    Nicky talking crap again.

  26. Catprog says:
    Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 6:17 pm
    How is it that when Labor needs the Greens to govern continually that they work well together?

    This has never happened in any important legislature. The concept is Green-built mirage. The Greens prosper by disabling and defeating Labor. That has been their gig. It is their daily agenda.

  27. Asha Leu says:
    Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 6:16 pm
    Rebecca:

    …..I think there’s generally a recognition from both members and MPs from either party that, despite our differences, we are on the same side….

    This is a convenient fiction recited by the Greens to assure themselves that it’s ok to wage political war on Labor.

  28. Much as it pains me to agree with Nicholas on anything, he’s actually right here. And while Trad’s actions were blown way out of proportion by the Courier Mail, she’s hardly innocent in this whole mess either. As with the likes of Sam Dastyari, I have little time for pollies who drag Labor through the shit for what is – at best- utter carelessness.

  29. Asha Leu says:
    Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 5:48 pm
    Man, am I glad Briefly is not in a position of power in the ALP.

    Be assured, Labor’s organisational leadership is very well aware that the Greens utterly despise Labor. They are also very well tutored in the twin imperatives – Labor must govern alone/to govern with the Greens is to court disaster.

  30. The decline in the Statewide vote of the Greens, ON and Palmer is a very welcome development in QLD. These Labor-phobic outfits are losing their allure. Wonderful news.

  31. Last night when accepting the win Palaszczuk said something along the lines that what made this election different was that both leaders were women. The rancour was less. I thought at the time it was actually a bit of a backhanded compliment, and that it will be seized on by the LNP as another reason to dump Frecklington. So although I’m reminded of something Keating was supposed to have said to Gillard when she lost the PM-ship, wtte that you always go out in a box, and Palaszczuk will no doubt one day have her day in the box, today, looking back over her three wins, I think Palaszczuk is a political ninja.

  32. Nicholas
    Corruption is always illegal so you might be thinking of ethical behavior because that is not always subject to legal statue. Being unethical isn’t the same as corrupt in the legal sense.

  33. Asha Leu @ #183 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 6:30 pm

    Much as it pains me to agree with Nicholas on anything, he’s actually right here. And while Trad’s actions were blown way out of proportion by the Courier Mail, she’s hardly innocent in this whole mess either. As with the likes of Sam Dastyari, I have little time for pollies who drag Labor through the shit for what is – at best- utter carelessness.

    You’re just another wanker caught up in the sophistry of impotent purity.

  34. I always liked Trad up until a couple of years ago and believed she’d probably make a great successor to Palaszczuk, but she just became bizarrely accident-prone in the sense that I’ve never seen a politician just repeatedly get themselves into legitimate ethical quandaries over such minuscule stakes. It showed a continual and very odd lack of judgment, and unless you’re a federal Liberal at the present time and have a leadership prone to brazening anything out, that’s inevitably politically fatal.

  35. Asha Leu @ #183 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 6:30 pm

    Much as it pains me to agree with Nicholas on anything, he’s actually right here. And while Trad’s actions were blown way out of proportion by the Courier Mail, she’s hardly innocent in this whole mess either. As with the likes of Sam Dastyari, I have little time for pollies who drag Labor through the shit for what is – at best- utter carelessness.

    Don’t listen to Nicholas. He’s a blinkered numpty who opportunistically proselytises the Green-Liberal position. Instead, educate yourself about Jackie Trad:

    https://youtu.be/rlDZcmKZ8Kk

    Small ethical infractions by a Labor Minister, blown out of all proportion by the political opportunists in the LNP and The Greens, do not make her corrupt.

  36. Nicholas says:
    Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 4:17 pm
    Doyley, stop making excuses for Trad…

    N stooping into sexism and Labor-phobia…..vile behaviour, Establishment values invoked for cyclical political reasons….

    Trad was targeted because she’s female, because she’s Labor and because she had responsibility and eminence. N brings to PB the same kind of impartiality that Credlin brings to journalism.

  37. Talk of preferences is so stupid. Basically unless you poll over 50% primary you are either not elected or elected on someone elses preference. Who cares, move on.

  38. I see Adam Bandt is out of the blocks throwing shade on Albo, and we thought he would have learnt from the Black Wiggle’s denouement…

    Worst Qld election morning-after take: so-called Tory-fighters sooking that Libs don’t automatically preference them to gift them seats.

    If yr so reliant on your so-called LNP enemy to hold seats, maybe a bit of self-reflection is in order about Labor’s ‘progressive’ cred.’

  39. As he should be.

    Ashby’s tantrum about losing because of declining regional media coverage while simultaneously scrambling to rationalise his hatred of the ABC and love of cutting their funding was glorious.

  40. Voodoo Polictics @ #174 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 6:10 pm

    I believe in the Greens,
    the Party almighty,
    protector of the earth,
    of all things visible and invisible.

    I believe in one Lord Bob Brown,
    the Only true leader,
    born of the Franklin, before all else.

    Green from Green, Brown from Brown,
    true Green from true Brown,
    biodynamically grown, not manufactured,
    through him all Policies were made.
    For us of all genders, creeds and colors
    he ascended to the Senate,
    and in the Unrespresentative Swill
    he found meaning, and became manifest.

    He ascended into myth
    and is seated at the right hand of the Suzuki.
    His Will come again
    to judge the Greens, reds and Watermelons
    and his influence will have no end
    Except for the blues, who are non-believers.
    Amen

    They always say the Green Kool Aid is the strongest.

  41. sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 6:57 pm

    I see Adam Bandt is out of the blocks throwing shade on Albo, and we thought he would have learnt from the Black Wiggle’s denouement…

    This is the warp and the woof of Green polemics. They will never miss a chance to deride Labor. They are deeply, constitutionally, in-the-wool committed Labor-haters.

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