Essential Research budget expectations polling

Mixed messages on the imminent federal budget, plus polling from WA on border closures and secession.

The most interesting poll of the day is YouGov’s Queensland state poll, which you can read about here, but we do also have some results from the fortnightly Essential Research poll courtesy of The Guardian, focusing on expectations for the budget. Fifty-one per cent of respondents expected it would benefit the well off and 30% expected it would benefit those on low incomes, but only 25% thought it would benefit them personally. Thirty-five per cent expected it would be good for the economy compared with 31% for bad.

More interestingly, 78% signed on to the proposition that now was a good time to “explore new ways to run the economy”, with only 22% opposed. Sixty-nine per cent favoured “direct investment by government in job creation and in projects with the objective of improving living standards” when it was offered as an alternative to “deregulation to encourage employment and tax cuts for wealthy Australians”, which some may consider a false binary. The full report should be out later today.

In other poll news, The West Australian has been dealing out further results from the poll of 3500 respondents that recorded a 16% swing on state voting intention to Labor – remembering that this was a poll of five selected marginal seats, and not of the entire state. The poll found support for Western Australia’s hard border at 77% with 14% opposed, and support for secession at 28% and opposition at 55%, with 17% somehow unclear of their opinion.

UPDATE: Full results from Essential Research poll are available on the website, although there isn’t the usual PDF file at this point. Regular questions on COVID-19 suggest a softening of concern over the past fortnight, with very concerned down six to 30%, quite concerned up seven to 52%, not that concerned steady on 15% and not at all concerned down one to 4%. Perceptions of government performance in response are little changed, with the federal government on 60% good (down one) and 18% poor (steady), and good ratings for state governments on 65% in New South Wales (down two), 45% in Victoria (down two) 69% in Queensland (up one), 83% in Western Australia (down one) and 81% in South Australia (steady), with due regard to the small sub-sample sizes here.

UPDATE 2: PDF file here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,860 comments on “Essential Research budget expectations polling”

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  1. Barney

    It’s simple. He is shedding the virus. Staff at risk who have not already caught it. That’s at the minimum manslaughter. It’s murder if intent is proven.

    Just apply standard of everyday citizen doing exactly same thing.

  2. Barney
    “As it’s Tuesday, I’d say the next 4 weeks!”

    Nov 4 will be key to the election result. That’s what mundo thinks, and I think he’s nailed it! What would we do without mundo?

  3. It’s all about optics for Trump.

    The con man attempting to convince all and sundry that he is back. I saw a man who isnt convincing himself. He was definitely breathless and he knew it.

    What a rolling shit show. This week is going to be even worse. Sigh……

  4. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/05/health/Covid-patients-mental-state.html

    Nearly a third of hospitalized Covid-19 patients experienced some type of altered mental function — ranging from confusion to delirium to unresponsiveness — in the largest study to date of neurological symptoms among coronavirus patients in an American hospital system.

    Quite a lengthy article. How anybody thinks or pretends that this disease is anything but deadly serious is beyond me.

  5. guytaursays: Tuesday, October 6, 2020 at 10:38 am

    Barney

    It’s simple. He is shedding the virus.

    *************************************************************

    Dr. Dena Grayson @DrDenaGrayson

    This is reckless endangerment*, a FELONY.

    *Reckless endangerment is a crime consisting of acts that create a substantial risk of serious physical injury to another person. The accused person isn’t required to intend the resulting or potential harm, but must have acted in a way that showed a disregard for the foreseeable consequences of the actions.

  6. Haha others say the same. Video below,

    Kurt “Mask Up, Vote Early” Eichenwald
    @kurteichenwald
    ·
    13m
    Showed this to doctor. “He’s having trouble breathing. He’s trying to get his breath. If he doesn’t lie down, his oxygen is going to drop. He probably already needs oxygen. He’s an absolute idiot.”
    Quote Tweet

    Brennan Murphy
    @brenonade
    · 31m
    Trump looks like he is gasping for air
    Show this thread
    https://mobile.twitter.com/brenonade/status/1313256208363552769

  7. Kakuru @ #98 Tuesday, October 6th, 2020 – 10:41 am

    Barney
    “As it’s Tuesday, I’d say the next 4 weeks!”

    Nov 4 will be key to the election result. That’s what mundo thinks, and I think he’s nailed it! What would we do without mundo?

    No KooKoo, mundo thinks the next couple of weeks will be very interesting.
    Otherwise your post makes some excellent points!

  8. KayJay
    “Nearly a third of hospitalized Covid-19 patients experienced some type of altered mental function — ranging from confusion to delirium to unresponsiveness ”

    Trump should be fine then. Can’t catch what you’ve already got.

  9. Kakuru @ #115 Tuesday, October 6th, 2020 – 7:47 am

    KayJay
    “Nearly a third of hospitalized Covid-19 patients experienced some type of altered mental function — ranging from confusion to delirium to unresponsiveness ”

    Trump should be fine then. Can’t catch what you’ve already got.

    It does make diagnosis more difficult.

  10. Sharkie may survive in short term but not if similar decisions follow.
    __________
    It would only EVER be a Liberal that could take Mayo after her.

  11. The real shit comes from Miranda Devine on The Donald’s bravery –

    https://nypost.com/2020/10/04/coronavirus-battle-shows-the-bravery-of-president-trump-devine/?utm_campaign=iphone_nyp&utm_source=twitter_app

    “Mr Trump also shared quotes from an opinion piece in The New York Post, written by Australian Miranda Devine, which hailed his “bravery”.”

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/donald-trump-is-leaving-walter-reed-medical-centre/news-story/d20fd111df3f2fe6e2fad8c4b5238b0a

  12. Trump’s departure from the hospital will open the floodgates — he’s in for a political beatdown: Ex-White House adviser

    On CNN Monday, former White House adviser David Gergen warned that President Donald Trump will face political “all-out war” as a consequence of having left Walter Reed despite his unclear medical condition and ongoing COVID-19 infection.

    “I did feel tonight that the president was returning from the world of medicine to the world of politics,” said Gergen. “People on the Democratic side have generally been pretty quiet last few days. Biden pulled negative ads, for example. He is going to get in the thick of it now, it will be a fight.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/10/trumps-departure-from-the-hospital-will-open-the-floodgates-hes-in-for-a-political-beatdown-ex-white-house-adviser/

  13. I thought the reason he went into hospital was so he could continue working.

    Something he supposedly couldn’t do isolated in the residential section of the White House.

  14. Emma Alberici
    @albericie
    ·
    1h
    This is the first year in 9 that I won’t be in the Budget lock up. I won’t miss the instant coffee but I will miss the banter and nerdy rush to find the stuff the government wants you to miss! #Budget2020 #auspol

  15. Mundo, give it a rest with the childish names you call commentors, it’s like your talking in the third person it becomes tiresome. And if you must answer by making a, in your mind, hilarious play on my sobriquet then go right ahead.

  16. lizzie @ #123 Tuesday, October 6th, 2020 – 8:00 am

    Emma Alberici
    @albericie
    ·
    1h
    This is the first year in 9 that I won’t be in the Budget lock up. I won’t miss the instant coffee but I will miss the banter and nerdy rush to find the stuff the government wants you to miss! #Budget2020 #auspol

    I wonder where she will reemerge, she’s too good to sit it out.

  17. Josh Bornstein
    @JoshBBornstein
    ·
    38s
    and now I am pulling up the drawbridge behind me
    ***
    Rebekha Sharkie MP
    @MakeMayoMatter
    · Jun 20
    I will be forever grateful to @Flinders for #MyArtsDegree. It took me ten years to complete while working and raising three children. I would not have had my career or the privilege of sitting in the #HoR without it. #auspol

  18. Joy Reid DESTROYS Donald Trump for his deranged return to the White House

    Joy Reid slammed Trump for putting Secret Service agents at risk during the flight, and for taking his mask off as he entered the White House, spreading coronavirus everywhere. When Trump stood there without his mask to film a promotional video, Reid called it his “Mussolini moment.” She pointed out that many of the people working in the White House, who are now being exposed to the virus by Trump, are nonpolitical low income employees.

    We still believe Donald Trump made the decision to risk his life by leaving the hospital early because he’s afraid that if he doesn’t immediately find a way to regain control of his failing campaign, he’ll lose the election and go to prison. Regardless of why Trump is doing any of this, it’s homicidally deranged on his part. He may drop dead in week or two, but he seems intent on killing as many people as possible first.

  19. Kronomex
    ““Mr Trump also shared quotes from an opinion piece in The New York Post, written by Australian Miranda Devine, which hailed his “bravery”.”

    Indeed. Interesting that Devine has been shuffled off to the NY branch of Newscorpse after her recent humiliating local court loss over humiliating someone in print.

    As for “bravery”, not admitting something is a serious risk is stupidity, not bravery. By Devine’s reasoning, every drunk driver is brave when they get behind the wheel, not irresponsible and stupid.

  20. Jacqui is not pleased. Don’t blame her.

    Jacqui Lambie
    @JacquiLambie
    ·
    36m
    It’s a bill that creates no new uni places, makes them more expensive, gives 10% off coupons to rich kids and tells poor kids to go dream elsewhere. Every uni in SA loses, every student in SA loses. Not perfect? My word.

  21. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #125 Tuesday, October 6th, 2020 – 11:03 am

    lizzie @ #123 Tuesday, October 6th, 2020 – 8:00 am

    Emma Alberici
    @albericie
    ·
    1h
    This is the first year in 9 that I won’t be in the Budget lock up. I won’t miss the instant coffee but I will miss the banter and nerdy rush to find the stuff the government wants you to miss! #Budget2020 #auspol

    I wonder where she will reemerge, she too good to sit it out.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/breaking-news/emma-alberici-lands-new-gig-with-compare-the-market-australia-after-public-abc-departure/news-story/e78b0b432e400ff50f2e31a2bc41cf3c

    High-profile journalist Emma Alberici has got a new gig shortly after departing the ABC as part of the national broadcaster’s controversial round of redundancies.

    Alberici will be the new chief strategy, government relations and communications officer for insurance comparison website Compare the Market. You know, the one with the meerkats.

    The former chief economics correspondent ended up in the Fair Work Commission. She then took aim at her employer of 18 years and its news director Gaven Morris in a series of since-deleted tweets and promised she would no longer appear on TV because it’s “too painful to be in the public eye”.

  22. From the CDC:

    The onset and duration of viral shedding and the period of infectiousness for COVID-19 are not yet known with certainty. Based on current evidence, scientists believe that persons with mild to moderate COVID-19 may shed replication-competent SARS-CoV-2 for up to 10 days following symptom onset, while a small fraction of persons with severe COVID-19, including immunocompromised persons, may shed replication-competent virus for up to 20 days. It is possible that SARS-CoV-2 RNA may be detectable in the upper or lower respiratory tract for weeks after illness onset, similar to infections with MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. However, detection of viral RNA does not necessarily mean that infectious virus is present. Based on existing literature, the incubation period (the time from exposure to development of symptoms) of SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses (e.g., MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV) ranges from 2–14 days.

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/faq.html

    Despite having had the antibody cocktail, and the antiviral Remdesivir, there is no way Trump is not shedding virus. He’s shedding the virus. Now watch the video that sprocket put up. It’s what not to do 101.

    You can assume with certainty that from doing his face and hair and masking up, he’s got virus on his hands. Despite the mask, he bare handed holds the stair rail. Without putting on gloves in a ‘no touch’ technique or sterilising his hands, he’s left virus on the rail.

    At the top of the stairs, the mask is removed in a clumsy contaminating way – whatever is in/on the mask from his exhalations is added to his hands – and the mask folded and stuffed in a pocket. There’s virus all over his clothes, and more on his hands. At the very least, the mask should have been carefully removed with a finger and thumb on and only on the behind-the-ear string, then dropped at arm’s length into a marked dedicated contamination bin, and then the hands sterilised.

    And that’s for starters.

    He’s a walking talking Covid bomb, and that there are medical personnel letting him do this while keeping schtum is an absolute fucking disgrace. Where’s the American Medical Association.

  23. mundo @ #115 Tuesday, October 6th, 2020 – 7:50 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #101 Tuesday, October 6th, 2020 – 10:45 am

    Kakuru @ #105 Tuesday, October 6th, 2020 – 7:41 am

    Barney
    “As it’s Tuesday, I’d say the next 4 weeks!”

    Nov 4 will be key to the election result. That’s what mundo thinks, and I think he’s nailed it! What would we do without mundo?

    Who’s mundo?

    Come come Bunghole, don’t be a tease….

    What’s a flower hole?

  24. Lambie is correct on the Tertiary Funding sell-out. As I said, $500 million per year in an $18 billion per year sector is a pittance – about 3%. Lots of jobs will be lost in SA, and every other state, over this.

  25. Socrates

    I wonder who sat down with Starkie and said “Now, what would it take to persuade you to vote for the Bill?” Was it the softly persuasive Birmingham, or that master of negotiation, the Belgian Waffle?

  26. Trump could have played this in so many ways. Almost all of them positive or neutral to his campaign. But instead he chose a psychos path.

    I wasnt going to pay much attention to polls this week. But with a nutter on the loose and those close to him getting ill, things may rapidly get interesting.

    Will he demand senators, advisers and cabinet members gather ’round for a show of loyalty in a maskless photo op? Will they start swimming or sink with the stone?

  27. The LNP budget is setting the conditions for decades of Labor government

    This century Labor might just get more years on the federal treasury benches than they have had on the ACT ones.

  28. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #128 Tuesday, October 6th, 2020 – 11:11 am

    mundo @ #115 Tuesday, October 6th, 2020 – 7:50 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #101 Tuesday, October 6th, 2020 – 10:45 am

    Kakuru @ #105 Tuesday, October 6th, 2020 – 7:41 am

    Barney
    “As it’s Tuesday, I’d say the next 4 weeks!”

    Nov 4 will be key to the election result. That’s what mundo thinks, and I think he’s nailed it! What would we do without mundo?

    Who’s mundo?

    Come come Bunghole, don’t be a tease….

    What’s a flower hole?

    You tell me, Petal.

  29. lizzie @ #126 Tuesday, October 6th, 2020 – 11:04 am

    Josh Bornstein
    @JoshBBornstein
    ·
    38s
    and now I am pulling up the drawbridge behind me
    ***
    Rebekha Sharkie MP
    @MakeMayoMatter
    · Jun 20
    I will be forever grateful to @Flinders for #MyArtsDegree. It took me ten years to complete while working and raising three children. I would not have had my career or the privilege of sitting in the #HoR without it. #auspol

    Bingo!

  30. Lizzie

    “I wonder who sat down with Starkie and said “Now, what would it take to persuade you to vote for the Bill?” Was it the softly persuasive Birmingham, or that master of negotiation, the Belgian Waffle?”

    I am not the political expert some here are, but in my experience when I worked in government it is usually personal, rather than anything to do with policy or ideology. Whichever government Minister that got on best personally with Sharkie was probably given the job. They reserve the arm twisting for recalcitrant back-benchers.

  31. frednk @ #122 Tuesday, October 6th, 2020 – 11:05 am

    Mundo has got to be a high school kid entertaining himself.

    Some here certainly are thin skinned.
    If they’re not pissing in each others pockets recycling the bleeding obvious they’re calling posters they don’t like names.
    The pocket pissing posts between pocket pissing posters can be entertaining to a degree but when it turns into a pocket pissing club….like yesterday, it ain’t.

    Mundo, young at heart no question!
    Freedunk you old coot, get out of the way the younins’ are commin’ through!

    .
    .
    .
    .
    Commin’ through I tells ya!$!$@#!$@!#$@!!!!

  32. Oakeshott Country

    Tuesday, October 6, 2020 at 11:15 am
    Nsw 11th day in a row without local transmission but a remarkable 11 cases in hotel quarantine

    Neck and neck with NZ. Re the 11, NZ has had a couple of days like that. Flights from India seem a bit ‘risky’ . One last week had 10 passengers test positive on the same day (day 3 test).

    There are three new cases of Covid-19 in New Zealand, all in managed isolation.

    The country has now gone 11 days without community transmission.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/122995848/covid19-three-new-coronavirus-cases-in-managed-isolation

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