Essential Research budget expectations polling

Mixed messages on the imminent federal budget, plus polling from WA on border closures and secession.

The most interesting poll of the day is YouGov’s Queensland state poll, which you can read about here, but we do also have some results from the fortnightly Essential Research poll courtesy of The Guardian, focusing on expectations for the budget. Fifty-one per cent of respondents expected it would benefit the well off and 30% expected it would benefit those on low incomes, but only 25% thought it would benefit them personally. Thirty-five per cent expected it would be good for the economy compared with 31% for bad.

More interestingly, 78% signed on to the proposition that now was a good time to “explore new ways to run the economy”, with only 22% opposed. Sixty-nine per cent favoured “direct investment by government in job creation and in projects with the objective of improving living standards” when it was offered as an alternative to “deregulation to encourage employment and tax cuts for wealthy Australians”, which some may consider a false binary. The full report should be out later today.

In other poll news, The West Australian has been dealing out further results from the poll of 3500 respondents that recorded a 16% swing on state voting intention to Labor – remembering that this was a poll of five selected marginal seats, and not of the entire state. The poll found support for Western Australia’s hard border at 77% with 14% opposed, and support for secession at 28% and opposition at 55%, with 17% somehow unclear of their opinion.

UPDATE: Full results from Essential Research poll are available on the website, although there isn’t the usual PDF file at this point. Regular questions on COVID-19 suggest a softening of concern over the past fortnight, with very concerned down six to 30%, quite concerned up seven to 52%, not that concerned steady on 15% and not at all concerned down one to 4%. Perceptions of government performance in response are little changed, with the federal government on 60% good (down one) and 18% poor (steady), and good ratings for state governments on 65% in New South Wales (down two), 45% in Victoria (down two) 69% in Queensland (up one), 83% in Western Australia (down one) and 81% in South Australia (steady), with due regard to the small sub-sample sizes here.

UPDATE 2: PDF file here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,860 comments on “Essential Research budget expectations polling”

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  1. In today’s episode of The Madness of King Donald, I see that Hand Maiden and Spokesmodel, Kayleigh McEnany has the Rona. 😀

  2. Lars Von Trier says:
    Tuesday, October 6, 2020 at 6:48 am

    So there’s zero pressure to “ manage the budget” and any spending is good spending ? What could go wrong ?

    The last time this had to be done, we got school halls, insulation installed in our ceilings, a lot of new hospitals and a lot bullshit from the Liberals. It will be interesting to see what we get this time.

  3. King Donald has gone full loop de loop now. He’s discharging himself from hospital (and using his craven doctors as cover). Now, not only will his staff have to wear masks, they will have to wear full PPE!

  4. Karen Beishuizen
    He weighs 322 pounds Hospital records show.

    It’s becoming increasingly clear that Trump was not regularly being tested. Just another lie.

  5. Waiting for Morrison and the libs/nats media propaganda units to explain,why has there been no new jobs created , from the so-called tax relief for businesses since 2014 .

    Why has there been no jobs created from the so-called cut the red tape since 2014

    Why has there been no jobs created , since the cut to the penalty rates

    There still will be no new jobs created after the rich get another tax relief

  6. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, October 6, 2020 at 7:16 am
    Karen Beishuizen
    He weighs 322 pounds Hospital records show.

    It’s becoming increasingly clear that Trump was not regularly being tested. Just another lie.


    Lol c@tmomma

  7. Terry Sweetman (retired journo)

    This is behind a paywall but it suggests bewilderment when a poll of your own narrow readership base doesn’t deliver the result you wanted.

    Hmm, I wonder why that is?

    Queensland Labor

    When the LNP was last in power, they sacked 4,400 health workers.

    And now – as we recover from a global pandemic – Deb Frecklington has confirmed plans to do it again.

    Queensland can’t risk the LNP’s cuts.

  8. Not much sympathy vote for Dotard…

    (CNN)Two-thirds of Americans say President Donald Trump handled the risk of coronavirus infection to others around him irresponsibly, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS in the days following the announcement that the President had contracted the virus that has disrupted everyday life for millions of people for more than half a year.

    With Trump hospitalized at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, 69% of Americans said they trusted little of what they heard from the White House about the President’s health, with only 12% saying they trusted almost all of it.

    Disapproval of the President’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak stands at a new high in the survey, with 60% saying they disapprove. Additionally, 63% say his own infection is unlikely to change anything about the way that he handles the pandemic.

  9. Have just downloaded and started to set up Chrome.

    The “Welcome Area” – Dashboard – Edit My Profile – Logout disappears in certain circumstances. So far I have found that closing the browser and then reopening will cause a reappearance of “Welcome etc”

  10. Dotard has now said he will participate in the 15 October debate, which was going to be a ‘town hall style’. Meanwhile, for the VP debate, getting closer to the cone of silence…

    10/05/2020 04:07 PM EDT

    The Commission on Presidential Debates has approved plans for plexiglass to be used in Wednesday’s vice presidential debate amid mounting concerns about coronavirus transmission, according to two people familiar with the discussions.

    Plexiglass is expected to be used as a barrier between Vice President Mike Pence and California Sen. Kamala Harris, as well as between the two candidates and moderator Susan Page. The plans have the support of the Cleveland Clinic, which is helping to set health protocols for the forums amid the pandemic.

  11. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Now Trump is urging Americans not to be afraid of COVID-19 or let it dominate their lives. What a fool! A dangerous fool, in fact.
    According to Peter Hartcher, Trump’s disruptive leadership is doing Xi’s job for him. His basic premise is that America is rooted.
    The Australia Institute’s Ben Oquist is concerned that, for aged care residents, the idea that removing “red tape” is the best way to help people or the economy is an ideology of this government that has not withered. He develops a sturdy defence for effective regulation and governance measures in general.
    Economics lecturer Stephen Hall writes that we’ve forgotten that it used to be normal for governments to spend big. This is quite a good history lesson.
    And Robin Fitzsimmons says that Menzies’ party needs a quick history lesson which she then spells out.
    Josh Frydenberg remains convinced the Australian economy can thrive despite the COVID-19 uncertainty. That means heading ever deeper into debt and deficit, no regrets allowed, says Jennifer Hewett who concludes her article with, “Frydenberg’s “here and now” budget moment has arrived. An uncertain future awaits.”
    Josh Frydenberg is assuming there will be a vaccine against the coronavirus sometime next year and he’s hoping his prescriptions for the economy will inoculate the government against blame if things go wrong, says Paul Bongiorno in quite a good contribution.
    The government believes a subsidy is a better use of taxpayers’ money than extending JobKeeper – and the backdated tax cuts should whiz through Parliament, writes Phil Coorey.
    Christopher Knaus wants the budget should reverse ‘brazen’ Coalition cuts to transparency bodies that hold government to account.
    Paul Karp tells us what he expects tonight’s budget to deliver.
    Daniel Hurst writes that, after some initial confusion, the Morrison government says about $7.5bn in infrastructure spending to be promised in tonight’s budget is “new money” that comes on top of the $100bn over 10 years previously foreshadowed. Michael McCormack, ever quick on his feet, did not help allay the confusion.
    The SMH editorial begins with, “As Australia faces a once-in-a-century economic crisis, the federal government has taken seriously its vow to respond to the COVID-19 crisis with centrist and non-ideological measures. The federal budget, to be handed down on Tuesday, will reveal the depth and extent of that commitment. ´
    Kevin Rudd is concerned that, under the cover of Covid, Morrison wants to scrap his government’s protections against predatory lending. It’s a ripper!
    Our world is facing irreversible destruction – and still there’s no urgency in Australian climate policy, laments Lenore Taylor.
    Jennifer Duke describes self-funded retirees as ‘the forgotten people’ ahead of 2020 budget. She says they will be forced into risky investments to stay afloat unless there is extra support in the federal budget.
    Dana McCauley writes that the budget will include health measures expected to push it to a historic level of spending as the Morrison government grapples with the ongoing costs of battling COVID-19, while responding to crises in aged care and mental health.
    Trish Bergin explains how the budget can be evaluated for its underlying fairness – or lack thereof.
    Michelle Grattan looks at the budget through the prism of the next election.
    Alexandra Smith tells us that One Nation and the NSW Greens will form an unlikely alliance to support a gambling card for poker machines, as the Berejiklian government braces for a stoush with clubs and pubs over the plan.
    Eryk Bagshaw writes that a former Australian ambassador to Beijing believes China is presenting itself as a responsible major power by making fresh diplomatic overtures to Australia and resisting the temptation to take political advantage of Donald Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis.
    Nick Bonyhady reports that Australia’s response to future pandemics would be co-ordinated by a new specialised government organisation under a plan announced by Labor yesterday.
    Here’s Katharine Murphy’s take on Albo’s commitment to an Australian CDC.
    The AFR’s Aaron Patrick continues his story on Toll by revealing that an accountant in the company’s Middle East operations who alerted the logistics group to financial improprieties was later falsely accused of wrongdoing in a separate case and jailed in Dubai.
    Richard Baker reports that Daniel Andrews last year asked the Chinese government to set up a technology research and development centre in Melbourne, prompting warnings about intellectual property theft and the potential national security implications.
    Tony Wright tells us that Tim Smith denies he is inciting followers to violence with his latest onslaught on the Andrews government, in which he imitates an American military campaign tactic used against Iraq’s Saddam Hussein.
    Conservative LNP senators and journalists have been perpetuating the idea that unemployed youth should be forced into farm work, writes John Haly.,14377
    Adan Cooper reports that the lawyer for the man who gave evidence against George Pell at trial has denied her client ever received money, amid reports in the Italian media that Vatican funds were sent to people in Australia to help secure the sex assault conviction against the cardinal.
    As does The Guardian.
    A 40-year effort to establish a nuclear waste dump in remote South Australia faces a rocky passage through Federal Parliament after Labor signalled it is prepared to block the Morrison government’s attempts to resolve the long-running debate.
    Sarah Danckert writes that the billionaire Liberman family’s ethical investment house Impact Investment Group has been accused by investors of acting dishonestly and unfairly over a $70m property deal in Sydney’s Central Park precinct.
    A new study by the CSIRO, Australia’s national science agency, has estimated up to 14 million tonnes of micro-plastics have sunk to the bottom of the ocean floor.
    Kathy Jackson’s chickens have at last come home to roost.
    Britain’s Conservative government has “a sacred responsibility” to curb borrowing and balance the budget, Chancellor Rishi Sunak has said, even as the economy faces a sharply escalating second COVID-19 wave.
    The US pandemic depression is over, but the pandemic recession has just begun, opines the New York Times’ Neil Irwin.
    David Tyler opines that Trump is the architect of his own decline.
    Matthew Knott says that Trump’s reckless joyride tops his bible-holding photo op in Washington.
    According to White House statements, President Trump has contracted COVID-19, but Dr Martin Hirst says there are reasons to be sceptical.,14378
    David Smith writes that the president is aiming to win the election not at ballot box but with voter intimidation tactics.
    Surgeon Dr Neela Janakiramanan accusing Donald Trump’s doctors of being complicit in a PR exercise. Having just heard their latest effort a few minutes ago I would have to agree with her.
    And the AFR’s health editor Jill Margo says that in the White House, politics trumps medicine.
    People don’t trust the facts about Trump’s coronavirus. Is it any wonder says Simon Jenkins.
    Covid knocked the stuffing out of Johnson. Will it do the same to Trump wonders Zoe Williams.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope

    Cathy Wilcox

    David Rowe

    Matt Golding

    Mark David

    Glen Le Lievre
    John Spooner

    Mark Knight

    Dionne Gain

    Andrew Dyson

    From the US

  12. C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, October 6, 2020 at 7:10 am
    Tax Credits, not Tax Cuts. Don’t buy the Coalition line.
    Are you sure about no tax cuts ?

  13. Kathy Jackson got a minor gig on the news last night as she was found guilty of fraud. Presented as just a corrupt unionist, no mention of those heady days when she was the temporary darling of Abbott’s liebrals.

  14. Albo began his interview with Fran the Tory Fan this morning by pointing out how rubbish the economy was before Covid and how Labor was calling for the government to stimulate the economy last year!

    Mundo is reborn.
    Albo has been reading Mundo!

    Rejoice, for there is hope!

  15. I reckon Wayne Goss would have had something to say about the upcoming Qld election being “the most crucial” in Qld history!

  16. Taylormade, small government has shown to be an absolute disaster. Tax cuts = small government. Old school, old bullshit. Economy needs stimulus now, not when you get your tax refund.

  17. The sidelining of White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany due to a positive coronavirus test on Monday will eliminate one of President Trump’s most potent allies in the final weeks of his uphill reelection battle.

    Since she joined the White House in April, McEnany’s press briefings have become electric, combative affairs that have resonated not just on live television but for days afterward as memes on social media. McEnany’s closing briefing comments — typically scripted — in which she denounces the press for some alleged bias or shortcoming have made her a heroine within conservative media and among Trump supporters, despite their uncertain or questionable veracity.

    Will people really notice she’s gone? The WH press briefings haven’t had any value apart from comedic since the Obama Administration!

  18. I expected nothing less:

    Jennifer Jacobs (Bloomberg Sr WH Reporter)
    NEWS: Trump wants to make a dramatic exit from Walter Reed. He plans to walk out the golden front doors on camera, sources tell
    and me. He’s shooting a video inside the hospital first, and then will walk to car and then to Marine One. No plan to speak to press.

  19. mundo
    One angle Labor has missed and could have been running for years is the “Coalition wage freeze” aka “Abbott/Turnbull/Morrisson wage drought” . Especially given all of the budgets have predicted bigly wage rises in the following year. It would matter not a jot the reasons it has so much ‘waddaboutme ?” potential. Toooooo late now though.

  20. Albanese and Bowen announce Australia will get its own CDC from Labor.

    Because Labor never do anything, do they, moano, poroti and south mouth?

  21. .Victoria has recorded 15 new coronavirus cases with the all-important 14-day metro average now falling below 11.

    The state also recorded one new virus deaths, taking the total number of deaths since the start of the pandemic to 807.

    The 15 new infections in the past 24 hours have dropped Melbourne’s metropolitan 14-day average to 10.6. On Monday it was 11.6

    That figure must be around five for the Satet Government to consider reopening the city.

    Regional Victoria’s 14-day average has remained at 0.3 after it was revealed the case reported in Greater Shepparton on Monday was a false positive and removed from the data.

  22. poroti @ #31 Tuesday, October 6th, 2020 – 8:43 am

    One angle Labor has missed and could have been running for years is the “Coalition wage freeze” aka “Abbott/Turnbull/Morrisson wage drought” . Especially given all of the budgets have predicted bigly wage rises in the following year. It would matter not a jot the reasons it has so much ‘waddaboutme ?” potential. Toooooo late now though.

    A few angles missed no question….there’s an outside chance Albo is going to deliver the speech of the century on Thursday night, certainly he’s got plenty of material.
    We shall see.

  23. “In today’s episode of The Madness of King Donald, I see that Hand Maiden and Spokesmodel, Kayleigh McEnany has the Rona.”

    In deep shit when the zoonosis extends to Barbie dolls. What’s next? Chicken coops and cubby houses?

  24. Shellbellsays:
    Tuesday, October 6, 2020 at 9:11 am
    Does stage 2 in Vic require a 14 day average of less than 5 cases?

    Stage 3. We have been through the first 2 stages.


    Daily average number of cases in the last 14 days is less than 5 (statewide) AND
    Less than 5 cases with an unknown source in the last 14 days (statewide total)
    The number of cases must be low enough to move to the next step. This is a trigger point for public health review.

    Key points
    No restrictions on leaving home
    Spend time with others outside where possible
    Public gatherings: up to 10 people
    Visitors allowed at home from 1 other household (up to 5 people)
    Schools will see a potential staged return for onsite learning for Grade 3 to Year 10 subject to public health advice (Already changed)…
    Hospitality open for predominantly outdoor seated service only
    All retail open, hairdressing and beauty services where a face mask can be worn for the duration of service

  25. If you want the average to be 5 over 14 days it means that they are going to have low single figures over the next couple of weeks

    5 x 14 = 70 – 15 (today’s number) = 55

    55/13 = 4.23

    Over the next 13 days you require maximum of 4 per day. Every day above this number will push this target out of reach.

  26. Media incorrectly reports that case average needs to be 5 to reopen further. That’s incorrect. It has been stated numerous times if the target isn’t reached it will depend on what sort of cases we are having and there is some flexibility for the next step of roadmap.

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