Essential Research budget expectations polling

Mixed messages on the imminent federal budget, plus polling from WA on border closures and secession.

The most interesting poll of the day is YouGov’s Queensland state poll, which you can read about here, but we do also have some results from the fortnightly Essential Research poll courtesy of The Guardian, focusing on expectations for the budget. Fifty-one per cent of respondents expected it would benefit the well off and 30% expected it would benefit those on low incomes, but only 25% thought it would benefit them personally. Thirty-five per cent expected it would be good for the economy compared with 31% for bad.

More interestingly, 78% signed on to the proposition that now was a good time to “explore new ways to run the economy”, with only 22% opposed. Sixty-nine per cent favoured “direct investment by government in job creation and in projects with the objective of improving living standards” when it was offered as an alternative to “deregulation to encourage employment and tax cuts for wealthy Australians”, which some may consider a false binary. The full report should be out later today.

In other poll news, The West Australian has been dealing out further results from the poll of 3500 respondents that recorded a 16% swing on state voting intention to Labor – remembering that this was a poll of five selected marginal seats, and not of the entire state. The poll found support for Western Australia’s hard border at 77% with 14% opposed, and support for secession at 28% and opposition at 55%, with 17% somehow unclear of their opinion.

UPDATE: Full results from Essential Research poll are available on the website, although there isn’t the usual PDF file at this point. Regular questions on COVID-19 suggest a softening of concern over the past fortnight, with very concerned down six to 30%, quite concerned up seven to 52%, not that concerned steady on 15% and not at all concerned down one to 4%. Perceptions of government performance in response are little changed, with the federal government on 60% good (down one) and 18% poor (steady), and good ratings for state governments on 65% in New South Wales (down two), 45% in Victoria (down two) 69% in Queensland (up one), 83% in Western Australia (down one) and 81% in South Australia (steady), with due regard to the small sub-sample sizes here.

UPDATE 2: PDF file here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,860 comments on “Essential Research budget expectations polling”

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  4. mundo says:
    Tuesday, October 6, 2020 at 9:16 am

    frednk @ #19 Tuesday, October 6th, 2020 – 8:00 am

    Rorting the system, Kathy Jackson is the sort of Unionist the Liberals like to see.

    Well yes, breathes new life into their corrupt unions theme……..

    I was thinking more along the lines of “birds of a feather”

  5. frednk @ #52 Tuesday, October 6th, 2020 – 9:29 am


    mundo says:
    Tuesday, October 6, 2020 at 9:16 am

    frednk @ #19 Tuesday, October 6th, 2020 – 8:00 am

    Rorting the system, Kathy Jackson is the sort of Unionist the Liberals like to see.

    Well yes, breathes new life into their corrupt unions theme……..

    I was thinking more along the lines of “birds of a feather”

    I know.
    Was just flipping the coin frednk….

  6. C@tmommasays: Tuesday, October 6, 2020 at 9:23 am

    It will be interesting to see where the Victorian cases have come from. Are they linked to Chadstone? Some place new?

    *********************************************************

    Not helping ……

    Cafe where positive Melbourne case dined gets ‘devastating’ news

    A regional Victorian cafe, that was forced to close after a Melbourne local dined there with COVID, has been hit with more “devastating”
    news.

    A regional Victorian cafe, that was left heartbroken yesterday after it was contacted by health authorities and told a positive case from Melbourne had dined there, will close until further notice after the virus spread again.

    The owner of OddfelIows Cafe in Kilmore, an hour north of Melbourne, took to Facebook late last night to reveal one of her staff members had tested positive for coronavirus after coming into contact with the infected diner.

    “I am devasted to announce that late this afternoon we had the dreaded call from DHHS to say that one of our staff members who was in contact with the customer on Wednesday has tested positive to Covid-19,” owner Kim Short wrote.

    “The cafe will remain closed until Monday the 19th of October or until further notice. All our staff are quarantined and following the DHHS rules.”

    The Melburnian was allowed to leave the CBD to provide care to someone in Kilmore however decided to dine at the cafe while transitting through.

    They tested positive over the weekend after coming into contact with someone in the Chadstone cluster.

    https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/australia/coronavirus-australia-live-victoria-qld-nsw-covid19-updates/live-coverage/ab892cf31365bf9f47f3c0e76ed64d51

  7. Even without coronavirus lockdowns hindering travel, Lidia Thorpe doubts her family would have travelled to Canberra to see her “swearing allegiance to the coloniser”.

    The newest Greens senator will formally join the Senate on Tuesday, cloaked in possum skins and carrying a message stick with a line burnt on it for each of the 441 people who have died in custody since the 1991 royal commission.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/i-m-swearing-allegiance-to-the-coloniser-new-senator-says-it-s-not-easy-20201005-p5621l.html

  13. Anti-Trump conservative strategist Rick Wilson has penned a scathing column about President Donald Trump’s hospitalization in which he shreds the president for blowing off a pandemic that has killed over 210,000 Americans in just eight months.

    Wilson takes a particularly poisonous scalpel to Trump supporters who are now demanding that the president’s opponents show empathy for him during his bout with the novel coronavirus.

    “Now that Trump has finally fallen prey to the disease that he downplayed for so long, his followers want America to weep for the suffering of their Dear Leader,” he writes. “They’re practically demanding our thoughts and prayers, but I hope they’re ready to wait in line a bit; there are seven million Americans more deserving of our empathy and our compassion.”

    Wilson then points out that Trump and his fans have for months ridiculed anyone who took the virus seriously and are now frantically demanding that Americans send thoughts and prayers to him now that he’s the one who’s suffering

    “The f*ck-your-feelings, Hillary-has-Parkinson’s-Disease crowd of Trump social media warriors have become stern enforcers of online decency,” he writes. “They’re simply shocked — shocked, I tell you — that a president who has poured his boundless reservoir of contempt and cruelty on Gold Star families, POWS, minorities of every stripe, and the victims of police brutality isn’t being universally adored for his courage in the face of COVID.”

    Wilson gives them a brutal response: “I like presidents who weren’t infected, OK?”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/10/hes-very-sick-ex-trump-official-says-trump-needs-to-drop-out-and-deal-with-his-19-brain-fog-and-lung-damage/

  16. Palaszczuk’s secret royalties deal amounts to $270m loan to Adani, TAI says

    A secret royalty deal struck between the Queensland government and coal miner Adani Australia is set to deliver millions in concessions and what amount to cheap loans, despite the Palaszczuk government committing not to subsidise the massive Carmichael coal mine.

    While both Adani and the Queensland government have acknowledged that the royalty deal has been struck and signed-off by Queensland treasurer Cameron Dick on Thursday night, virtually no deals of the royalty deal have been disclosed.

    Reports suggest that the Palaszczuk government has agreed to set an annual cap of $5 million on royalties payable by Adani to the Queensland government for its first five years of operation, with remaining royalties deferred.

    It is understood that the value of state government royalties expected to be generated during the first five years of the operation of Adani’s Carmichael coal mine is to be more than $300 million.

    Adani will be required to pay the full value of the royalties due at the end of the five year period, but it is unclear what interest may be payable on the deferred royalties, which effectively amount a low or zero interest loan from the Queensland government.

    https://reneweconomy.com.au/palaszczuks-secret-royalties-deal-amounts-to-270m-loan-to-adani-tai-says-56538/

  19. Morning all. Like others I cannot make sense of what Trump is doing, other than to put it down to a strong degree of self-delusion.

    If Trump was not that sick he should not have been given a strong set of steroidal drugs in treatment. If Trump was that sick he should be in hospital for two weeks+, not three days. Either way this looks foolish.

    I saw the references to Trump and the movie “Weekend at Bernies”. But perhaps they are going for a remake of “Dave” (that featured Kevin Kline and Sigourney Weaver). This time it will be Alec Baldwin as the impersonator of a comatose Trump, who turns out to be much nicer than the real POTUS, and betrays the party power brokers when he hands over power to Joe Biden 🙂

  26. Quoll

    ‘The descendants of the colonisers should be paying their rent anyway’

    I assume you’re doing your bit.

    I assume you’ve set up an on line payment, a fair percentage of your income, to go to Aboriginal groups to pay your rent.

    If you’re really serious, you’ve signed over your land title as well – it’s ‘stolen land’, after all.

    Or are you just posturing, expecting someone else to pick up the tab?

  27. mundo

    ‘I think it’s called doing Joe slowly?’

    Please explain. So far the polling shows Joe is the one improving (slowly) in the polls.

  28. Gorks,

    Media incorrectly reports that case average needs to be 5 to reopen further. That’s incorrect. It has been stated numerous times if the target isn’t reached it will depend on what sort of cases we are having and there is some flexibility for the next step of roadmap.

    The media getting straight answers to some of their questions, not liking the answer and reporting their own spin on what they think is the case has to be among the most frustrating aspects of the lockdown.

    They’ve constructed this whole narrative about hard targets, hard dates and the modelling but when asked about it (repeatedly), the answer has always been that there is flexibility and that hard data takes precedence over modelling. You wouldn’t know that based on reporting.

    I’ve noticed one journo in particular has been on a bit of a rampage about how cases are reported – it’s been noted repeatedly that when numbers get this low there are serious concerns about privacy and being able to identify individuals. Do they ever mention this? No.

    If you’re going to write article upon article about how Andrews and the public health team “aren’t answering questions”, at least report when they do and you don’t like the answer.

  29. BK @ #72 Tuesday, October 6th, 2020 – 9:56 am

    C@t
    She has put out a lengthy statement that you can see here at the Guardian live blog.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/oct/06/australia-coronavirus-budget-tax-cuts-news-covid-19-frydenberg-deficit-follow-live
    When you are a minnow, beggars can’t be choosers.

    I get that, it’s just that the Coalition have perfected the black art of throwing crumbs to buy off the minnows.

    And Mike Brooks, Interim VC of U of A gets it:

    The new legislation contains some serious deficiencies, however, the amendments that Ms Sharkie and senator Griff have secured are a step in the right direction.

    ‘Serious deficiencies’ versus ‘a step in the right direction’. Also, to be gulled by the Coalition using what an MP friend of mine terms, ‘Blackwashing’, ie using apparent benefits directed towards Indigineous Australians in order to mask the horribleness of the rest of the Bill. Just disgusting.

    Rex Patrick gets it:
    Rex Patrick
    (@Senator_Patrick)
    So, whilst you are forever grateful for the opportunity afforded you, you don’t care for future students in your electorate or state that might want the same opportunity #auspol #FundUniFairly #highered https://t.co/Hsz2lYMsqJ

    Not to mention this aspect of the ‘deal’:


    Centre Alliance has also negotiated funding for four study hubs across regional South Australia to provide extra support to regional students.

    I can bet the Taylor family will be onto that like flies on a piece of meat left out in the sun! Do these people not read the news?

    I’m sorry, not impressed. I mean, it’s almost as if the Coalition screwed down the South Australian Unis in the run-up to this legislation (with Centre Alliance in mind), so they could offer to bring them into line with Tasmania when negotiations, cynically, took place.

    Not that I hold it against you, BK, you have no control over these people. 🙂

  30. What are Lydia Thorpe’s thoughts on the state Government’s treaty process? From what I understand she tends to take a more hardline stance on things than most Aboriginal groups in the state.

  32. The ABC saying how strong and steady Trump looked when standing at the White house.

    Rubbish
    I thought he looked flushed and was swaying slightly all the time.

  33. On the Uni funding deal, Sharkie has sold out far too cheaply. Very disappointed.

    “Rebekha said the reforms had an emphasis on supporting higher education opportunities for Indigenous students and students from rural and low socioeconomic backgrounds through a $500m a year support program and one-off support payments of $5,000.”

    That is a pittance. The government blew more than that on Sports Rorts. The tertiary education sector government funding is $18 billion (already in the bottom third of OECD nations as a % of GDP), and employs 128,000 equivalent full time staff. That is a lot more than the coal and gas industries combined, by way of comparison.
    https://www.universitiesaustralia.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/190716-Facts-and-Figures-2019-Final-v2.pdf

    This will cost Sharkie votes. There are lots of academics who live in her electorate. I know several.

  34. Our independent MP, Helen Haines, also supported the government’s Uni legislation. As far as I can make out, she didn’t get anything out of it for the electorate.

    I can’t begin to understand why she did this.

  35. zoomster @ #76 Tuesday, October 6th, 2020 – 10:14 am

    Quoll

    ‘The descendants of the colonisers should be paying their rent anyway’

    I assume you’re doing your bit.

    I assume you’ve set up an on line payment, a fair percentage of your income, to go to Aboriginal groups to pay your rent.

    If you’re really serious, you’ve signed over your land title as well – it’s ‘stolen land’, after all.

    Or are you just posturing, expecting someone else to pick up the tab?

    I’m pretty sure Quoll lives a pretty comfortable Middle Class life that they don’t want to hand over to anybody for nothing! 😆

  39. zoomster says:
    Tuesday, October 6, 2020 at 10:20 am
    Our independent MP, Helen Haines, also supported the government’s Uni legislation. As far as I can make out, she didn’t get anything out of it for the electorate.

    I can’t begin to understand why she did this.

    ——————————–

    Isn’t she an ex-national party member like Mcgown and Sharkie

  41. Kathy Jackson got a minor gig on the news last night as she was found guilty of fraud. Presented as just a corrupt unionist, no mention of those heady days when she was the temporary darling of Abbott’s liebrals.

    And let us not forget her hurt feelings, only partially assuaged by nothing less than a formal vote of apology from the Federal Parliament.

    Plus of course the “c**t-struck” (his exact words) Fair Work Commissioner who gave her case a helping hand, then jumped into her panties.

  42. Good Morning.

    I just watched a crime being committed in real time. Trump on Balcony dictator style active Covid patient mask less.

  43. zoomster,

    It could be argued that Haine’s vote wasn’t needed as they have the numbers in the House with or without her, where as CA can tip legislation one way or the other in the Senate.

    However, she definitely could have made a lot of noise about it. I can’t say I’ve heard much from her compared to McGowan or Mirabella.

    Is there much of a tertiary education sector in Indi?

  46. Firefox
    The age of the photo (2016) tells you how old the ardani wedge is:
    Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk welcoming Adani founder Gautam Adani in 2016.(AAP)

    Come on, give us a new wedge.

  48. Re Centre Alliance support for Fed Govt’s University legislation

    Live in Mayo and have emailed Sharkie expressing deep disappointment with her and Griff’s decision. Agree with Socrates that it will not go down well in electorate. Sharkie may survive in short term but not if similar decisions follow.

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