The Guardian reports the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll includes its monthly leadership ratings, which find Scott Morrison’s lead over Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister is now at 49-26, in from 55-22 last time and the narrowest it has been since early February. However, movements on leaders’ ratings are apparently more modest: Morrison is down two on approval to 64%, with his disapproval rating yet to be disclosed (UPDATE: Up five to 28%, so perhaps not as modest as that), while Albanese is steady on approval at 44% and down one on disapproval to 29%.
Fifty-nine per cent now express approval for the federal government’s handling of the pandemic, down two on a fortnight ago. The poll was conducted before Sunday’s announcement of extended restrictions in Victoria, but the small-sample breakdown for that state finds approval of the state government’s performance up three to 50%, compared with falls of two points in New South Wales to 57% and six points in Queensland to 66%. The WA government is up three to a new high of 87%, although at this point sample sizes get very small indeed: as with much else in this poll, we will have to wait for the publication of the full report this afternoon for numbers from South Australia. The latter figure aside, the following chart shows how the various governments’ favourable ratings on this measure have progressed since March:
Concerning COVID-19 outbreaks in aged care facilities, 41% now blame the providers, down a point on a fortnight ago, with 31% blaming the federal government, up three, and 28% blaming state and territory governments, down two. The poll finds 36% support for increasing the Medicare levy from 2% to 2.65% to fund improvements to aged care, with 32% opposed and 32% uncommitted.
Forty-nine per cent favoured a proposition that Google and Facebook should have to pay for news content, compared with 38% for the alternative that “it is not up to the tech giants to support media companies” (as per the wording in The Guardian’s report). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1076.
UPDATE: Full report here.
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There has been a narrowing of the simulations, though.
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Not on 538. Biden out to 74-26. Back to what it was late July early Aug.
Of course he’s confident all the staff in his office will be maatteess who are as pure as the driven snow and would never ever ever do such awful things.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/sukkar-confident-department-will-find-no-wrongdoing-amid-stacking-claims-20200908-p55tn8.html
Dotard doing well in Ohio…
NEW @MorningConsult Poll
MICHIGAN
Biden 52% (+10)
Trump 42%
WISCONSIN
Biden 51% (+8)
Trump 43%
MINNESOTA
Biden 49% (+5)
Trump 44%
PENNSYLVANIA
Biden 50% (+5)
Trump 45%
FLORIDA
Biden 50% (+5)
Trump 45%
ARIZONA
Biden 49% (+3)
Trump 46%
NORTH CAROLINA
Biden 48% (+1)
Trump 47%
TEXAS
Biden 46%
Trump 46%
OHIO
Trump 50% (+5)
Biden 45%
Mavis
Odd observation, but perhaps I do not spend enough time hanging around accident and emergency wards.
Earlier, I was going to suggest to you that perhaps if I do not give you legal advice, then you could agree not to browbeat me with the superiority of your latest theories on the nature of dark matter.
Of course if you do have such theories, I would be happy to discuss them, but there really is a role for expertise.
You should extend the same courtesy to Itza, who is extremely knowledgeable, and whose insights I really value.
As a colleague of mine said back in April (WTTE):
“Will you all stop publishing you own personal graphs about the statistics of COVID! You are not epidemiologists. If you think it is OK for astrophysicists to become expert epidemiologists because they can work with NUMPY and GNUPLOT, then I have an email folder full of email from epidemiologists who have solved all the problems of cosmology.”
Actually, I think Bryan was exaggerating. I have never had an email from an epidemiologist purporting to have discovered Einstein was wrong. Retired engineers on the other hand ……
Mavis @ #3792 Wednesday, September 9th, 2020 – 9:24 am
Stick to law, where bullshit opinion is currency Mavis. Itza was, as usual, quite correct.
The reaction in the Oxford/AZ trial was transverse myelitis not anaphylaxis.
Transverse myelitis (TV) is a serious immunologically-mediated (delayed T cell type, not immediate hypersensitivity like anaphylaxis) reaction which causes demyelination (like poliomyelitis or multiple sclerosis) in the spinal cord which can lead to paralysis and serious disability. It is a classic (albeit rare – 1:1000 – 1:10,000) complication of most viral vaccines- though not necessarily due to the viral epitope (the molecular “shape” that gives the immunological reaction its specificity) as it can also be due to the adjuvent (the immunological amplification agent). Most cases are due to intercurrent viral infections rather than vaccines.
Unfortunately it tends to be a “trial killer” in phase 2 or early phase 3 trials (like the Ox/AZ)- because breaking the blinding to see whether it occurred in the active or placebo arms compromises the power of the continued study. This is quite bad news, though not necessarily a disaster.
The biology is not subject to political spin or legal will. This is why Fauci is likely to be correct: there will not be a sufficiently effective & safe vaccine for general population use this year – it is exposure limitation and personal protection for the foreseeable future. My heart bleeds for the GReedy Arseholes and SPivs who comprise the Right in power over the next 6 months.
ED Drs seldom think they are Dog, though a few aspire to martyrdom.
I don’t think there has been an A rated poll for Ohio since June. Strange, with Kasich endorsing Biden I expected they would test the water.
Did anyone post this already?
– https://chaser.com.au/national/scott-morrison-already-negatively-gearing-cubbyhouse/
Kate
Good idea. I decided I was going to not buy there anymore, but I will actually let them know.
My daughter has until recently worked in financial compliance. This meant that she needed to make sure her company was adhering with all Federal and state legislation. COVID was particularly taxing for her, as her CEO was a great Trump fan, and thought COVID was just seasonal ‘flu that was completely overblown.
Another of the things she needed to do, in making sure the company complied with its responsibilities under law, was to make sure there was no slave labour in the investments held by the company.
I am now looking at most things I buy (actually I was a vey early adopter of this, in 1987), and trying to buy ethically where possible.
What I do need is a substitute for Bunnings. I am totally addicted to the place!
Douglas and Milko @ #856 Wednesday, September 9th, 2020 – 8:43 pm
Mitre 10?
nath
*”You might call him a leader. I don’t like that kind of language.”*
So Schools of Humanities are not riddled with most horrible cut-throat politics? This sort of thing shocks you?
Bloody hell man. You should try working in my place. Robespierre has nothing on my work colleagues!
Trump looking strong on those polls. Polling in the mid 40s in all swing states. Hugely energised and frankly unhinged ‘base’ translates into 2/3 of that support actually voting.
Will sleepy joe get much more than 50% of folk who are telling pollsters that they intend voting for him to the ballot box (or post box for mail ins)? I doubt it. Those poll numbers include a lot of independents and moderates who might just be alarmed enough at the radicalisation of BLM to decide to sit the election out. Then there are a whole bunch of woke millennials who will find so excuse to do anything but actually vote for sleepy joe …
I like the local Mitre10. The local managers seem to have a lot of say and ours has specialised in some awesome timbers. They also get on well with the local garden centre and both will recommend each other for better products or products they don’t have.
Why are people boycotting KMart?
AE, pretty sure there is polling saying while Trumps base are pumped to vote so is the anti-trump base.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-trump-not-biden-might-have-an-enthusiasm-problem/
I was listening to this podcast earlier about the polls and the electoral college. It’s long but worth a listen.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-the-2020-electoral-map-could-get-weird/
I’m happy to boycott K-Mart. It’ll be like when I was a teenager, giving up sex for Lent.
Douglas and Milkosays:
*”You might call him a leader. I don’t like that kind of language.”*
____________________
I was referring to the German use of the word.
Spray – just like me 😀
I think I have bought only one thing in K-Mart in the past year, and that was because my mother dragged me there last week 😀
Adam Bandt: ‘It’s time to fight for justice & treaty..’
So the Greens are over ruling the national indigenous consensus position because of the views of one of their Senators.
Shameful.
Fess, they do go on. Thankfully I could listen to Clare for hours.
rhwombat:
I have thought for some time that there was far too much merchant banking in the Oxonian/AZ trial (in particular) and to a lesser extent in the UQ trial . I am not suggesting that there is anything wrong with the research or the vaccines being developed. Instead a swarm of merchant bankers have descended on certain vaccines in development and caused them to be showered in money. This is of course useful, but the circus thus generated is a distraction too.
The merchant bankers are of course particularly good at liberating other people’s money; in this case money held by the government. They like Oxonian/AZ because it is a new “platform”. This both looks good in PowerPoint and has the enticing prospect that COVID19 is only the first cab off the rank and the best is yet to come. Note however that the approach of the merchant banker will be exceedingly generous about the tail: ceding to others their rights to the vast future riches in exchange for a larger share of the the COVID19 platform member.
Now, very few people (including people at Flinders) seem to know much (or anything) about the Flinders COVID19 vaccine (developer: Vaxine). I’ve no idea what it is, maybe it doesn’t work or maybe no-one likes the guy, but it does seem to have had superior phase 1 safety data in comparison to most if not all others (e.g. when compared to Oxon/AZ even prior to the hold) and it’s ahead of the UQ vaccine in trial stage, so why isn’t there more noise about it – perhaps they have a critical deficiency in merchant bankers?
For phase two, they will have an adjuvant chemo cohort (people in chemo in whom it is likely that ca. has been cured by resection, so likely no remaining cancer). But if it gets to phase three they will need an advanced cohort and I will probably volunteer.
I have been looking at this site for ages. I really enjoy the banter and the political views of most people on the site. I really enjoy the news , articles you don’t see in msm. I didn’t even Mind being told by Nath/ Micheal that I am a member of a Andrews cult. I am not a member as I learnt of years working in my job – trust no one! BUT Nath are you a Scomo Cult member as you get to cheat in elections, knock over old people, punish the unemployed, don’t answer any questions, promise things and don’t do them and get to eat yourself to death!
Surely you Nath would have to agree no politician in Australian history has been able with stand the vicious attacks by the right who want him and as it turns out his family attacked by the Victorian people eg The Sun asked people to go his house and get him. They even put up a picture of house on there web site, which they reluctantly took down! I just admire his fight but he is a politician after all. I just want you to sleep easy at night that I am not a cult member or a Manson member!
From News.com
“The boss of department store Kmart has taken a swipe at Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews, saying the “massive extension” to the lockdown was a “complete surprise” to retailers that had left their staff “frustrated”.
Managing Director of Kmart group Ian Bailey said the retail sector was not consulted about what he called the “extended forced closure” and Kmart stores will likely have been closed for three months before they can welcome customers in again.”
SK:
All their voices grate for me, although Nate’s is the least annoying.
The Florida discussion at the end was useful in terms of the comments here from early this morning. Just underscored my view that Florida is going to be important.
Kate:
Ta.
Victor Scholarsays:
Wednesday, September 9, 2020 at 9:22 pm
BUT Nath are you a Scomo Cult member as you get to cheat in elections, knock over old people, punish the unemployed, don’t answer any questions, promise things and don’t do them and get to eat yourself to death!
_____________________
there’s alot to unpack there:
I’m not a fan of Scott Morrison but I think I can respond objectively to some of these:
1. I’m not sure about the cheating you are referring to.
2. Or about knocking over old people.
3. From my thinking the Federal Government’s response to the unemployed in COVID has been pretty good. Much better than I would have thought considering Liberal government past treatment of the unemployed.
4. All government promise things and fail to deliver.
5. Not sure about eating to death. Is that a reference to Morrison’s weight?
I buy picture frames from them. In fact I bought out all the Forster store’s stock.
$12 for the frame (A2 59x42cm, or panoramic 90x40cm), get proper glass cut at the local framers for about $25 a pop (I discard the cheap, unbelievably fragile Perspex). Some frame wire from Bunnings, and you have a good looking, large frame for under $40 (compared to about $120 at the framer’s). I do the prints myself.
Works well, despite having to chuck out 10% of frames ’cause they tend to fall apart now and then. Still a cheap, good option.
There’s never been any question of the local K-Mart closing down. Another advantage of living on the Glorious NSW Mid-North Coast.
Yeah… I know… touch wood. Glory can turn to catastrophe pretty quickly these days.
E. G. Theodore @ #4089 Wednesday, September 9th, 2020 – 9:21 pm
I concur. Finance is fiction, and biology is not fungible. Unfortunately vaccine immunology is still largely methodical observation & slow witchcraft. Even with the vast resources being thrown at COVID-19, the incompressible time course for any useful population vaccine is probably more than a year – from now.
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leads President Trump by 12 points nationally among likely U.S. voters, according to a new poll.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 52 percent of likely voters plan to cast their ballots for Biden, compared to 40 percent who plan to vote for Trump.
Three percent said they would vote for another candidate and just 5 percent said they are undecided with fewer than 60 days until the Nov. 3 election.
ED physicians are very humble in my experience which is extensive. They are very low on the pecking order. They aren’t even recognised as specialists for Medicare purposes.
Transverse myelitis is about as bad as it could get for the vaccine apart from Kawasakis disease or Guillaine-Barre syndrome. Classically an autoimmune syndrome.
Swing States:
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Marist Biden 53, Trump 44 Biden +9
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 50, Trump 46 Biden +4
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 49, Trump 43 Biden +6
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 50, Trump 44 Biden +6
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 49, Trump 47 Biden +2
Florida: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 49, Trump 46 Biden +3
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 49, Trump 45 Biden +4
CEO’s never care about their staff – only their bonus and retire packages.
Nath,
Führer or Lieder?
I’d be short-selling AZ shares if I knew how to do it.
A quick shout-out to:
BK – thanks again a bunch for the dawn patrol. Hope your ‘flu is on the mend.
C@tmomma – hope your move went well.
Lizzie – hope the wind stops, the rain goes away, and your electricity stays on!
Dio – I have no idea what short-selling means – guess I should ask my daughter, the one who worked in financial compliance. But actually, it is my OH who owns the shares, and neither of us have any idea what to do with them 🙂
DM
Short selling is when you bet on a share going down in price. I think you borrow a stock, sell it and then buy it back at a lower price.
I think it’s legal.
Covid could be a long term neurological disaster
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/09/08/bergamo-italy-covid-longterm/?arc404=true
In a nutshell
Van Badham
@vanbadham
·
4h
This means that Scott Morrison’s two announcements about buying this “vaccine” are worth even less than nothing. It’s not a vaccine; at the moment, it’s an experiment and that experiment has been suspended. #auspol
Quote Tweet
ABC News
@abcnews
· 13h
#BREAKING: The Oxford University coronavirus vaccine trial has been paused in what drug maker Astra Zeneca described as a “routine” action taken when there is a potentially unexplained illness among participants.
Short selling is when you bet on a share going down in price. I think you borrow a stock, sell it and then buy it back at a lower price.
I think it’s legal.
That’s about right. It’s legal and a common practice.
The Australian Chamber Orchestra’s concert – the third of a run of five – tonight in Sydney’s City Recital Hall was the first programming in the hall since the initial lockdown. It took a lot of organising, and protocol hoops to jump through.
The programme was introduced by Richard Tognetti, and dedicated to the people of Melbourne and Victoria, and live ABC broadcast I think, maybe delayed broadcast – hard to hear exactly as there was so much applause from the scattered well spaced audience for Victorians and Melburnians. Know we are with you down there you lot.
William Barton on vocals, guitar, and didgeridoo, opened with a new composition Didge Fusion.
Mendelssohn next; my Mendelssohn appreciation is sadly a bit limited
Schoenberg’s (pre-atonal) Transfigured Night was a pertinent choice (said Tognetti) – a dark reflective troubled space resolves slowly (well, 30mins) into a place of ethereal beauty and peace.
I’d guess about 75% wore masks. They were voluntary, and available on entrance. Another rough guess would be those who didn’t wear masks were female to male 2:1. For the first time I was finding myself irritated by non mask wearers, something to do with the time spent close together, regardless of reasonable separation – the couple in front and one seat to the left of us for example: she had a mask in her hand, not on her face, and he wore a mask but started coughing a lot at one stage. We moved, and they left (unrelated!). It just seemed so disrespectful, the couldn’t give a stuff about anyone else, self before others, routine.
There was a sustained meaningful standing ovation (hard to get in Sydney), just a big thank you both sides of the stage.
I really just wanted to say how strong and genuine was the support for Melbourne.
There was a good example of the utility of short selling on Monday’s 4 corners involving a dodgy pharmaceutical company.
Good post Itza. Worth reminding our besieged Victorian friends that the vast majority of people just wish them well, and couldn’t give a stuff about the politics.
Here’s the Wesfarmers email link if you wish to express your view on their CEOs critical comments about the Victorian Government.
https://www.wesfarmers.com.au/util/contact
Interesting that NEJM has published this;
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2026913
“Variolation” in COVID – Sounds like a sort of controlled natural herd immunity achieved through compulsory mask wearing
The problem with variolation in smallpox was that it killed a significant proportion of those who had it – you really had to take a roll of the dice
The Chinese security forces visited the Australian Journalists at midnight. Australia did it first, I wonder what time the Australasian security forces visited the Chinese journalists.
Starting to look like a Liberal campaign to smear a Labor member of parliament going off the rails. Do these clowns think diplomacy is a circus?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-09/chinese-journalists-based-in-australia-raided-state-media-says
Transverse myelitis is rumoured (?) to have occurred in the Oxonian/AZ trial at some point. It’s not clear whether this is what paused the trial or whether it occurred at some previous time (or both, which would be worse I guess).
So there will presumably be a net delay of at least several days / a few weeks? AZ are parallelising things by ramping up production capacity on the assumption that it will pass trial, but there must be a limit to this.
It seems quite common in cancer trials that an efficacious drug gets delayed AFTER phase one trial completion (meeting efficacy end points) to address toxicity. For example Roche’s Cibisatamab + Atezolizumab in advanced MSS/pMMR CRC passed phase one efficacy and safety in 2017 and there is clear unmet need in MSS/pMMR CRC, but didn’t immediately progress to phase two and I was told this was because they wanted to reduce toxicity (or were directed to do so, presumably). It is now back in trial I think (as of some time in 2019).
So in that case a delay of more than a year during during which time several thousand people who could have benefited (assuming it is eventually found to work) will have died with poor QOL…
Bear in mind that cancer drug toxicity is on a different scale to what would be acceptable in a prophylactic vaccine for community use and most drugs are thus administered to in-patients (some drugs even carry a risk of the patient needing resuscitation, and somewhat interestingly those patients often carry on with treatment and seem to do well – many younger patients are up for the fight if/when required). This is—as Itza explained—not at all the the same situation as for a prophylactic vaccine intended for healthy community use.
All of this prematurely announcing vaccines as announceables, then having said vaccine delayed or discontinued because of health risks established during further testing (and media focus on this), is potentially going to create more anti-vaxxers, who will refuse to have the vaccine (IF, and it’s a big if, one is actually developed that is shown to be effective AND safe) when one becomes available, because they don’t want to risk the very unlikely but potential side effects. I can see it now.
Steve777
There is also “naked short selling”, where from memory one eschewed the step of actually borrowing the stock (or otherwise establishing that it exists) and then went out and tried to backfill before the maturity date of the sale. This is illegal.
Mr Newbie:
A wise comment in my view.