Results
The links below lead to full displays of results for the 25 seats, updated live. Please excuse a few bugs that may still be evident, and also note that the calculations of booth swings and preference flows in cases where two-candidate preferred counts are not available are rather unscientific.
Thursday night
Robyn Lambley’s ever-precarious lead in Araluen ended the day at 13 votes, down from 17 yesterday. The NTEC says there are still 205 postals and 59 declaration votes outstanding, although not all of these will end up in the count. No new counting today in Namatjira and Barkly, and still nothing new in Blain.
Wednesday night
The CLP has hit the lead in Namatjira, where a strong trend on postals pushed them from 15 behind to six ahead, and slashed Labor’s lead in Barkly from 72 to 23, where both absents and postals added today favoured the CLP. All that would remain is a few dozen postals tops, which are unlikely to do Labor any favours, and maybe a dozen or two provisional votes, which might. In Araluen, what Robyn Lambley’s lead in Araluen has lacked in size it has made up for in consistency: extra postals and absents today left it at 17, to which it has progressed from 13 on Saturday to 26 on Sunday to 21 on Monday. Still no further counting in Blain, where Labor leads by 21. This leaves Labor with 13 confirmed wins and leads over the CLP in another two; the CLP with six confirmed wins and leads over Labor in one; and the Territory Alliance with a lead over Labor in another. Antony Green notes Labor’s primary vote is down 2.5% on the last election but the CLP’s has hardly changed, and that the CLP picked up only a small two-party swing and that even part of that could be accounted for by the switch to compulsory preferential voting.
Tuesday night
Everything that was in doubt yesterday remains in doubt today, although Labor’s 21-vote lead in Blain is handier than I thought it was: yesterday I said it would come down to the Coolalinga pre-poll booth, but Antony Green points out in comments that the votes here will have been entered as absents. No counting was conducted today for Blain or Araluen, where Robyn Lambley leads by 21. I’m not sure exactly what was counted in Namatjira today, but it has reduced Labor’s lead from 19 to 15.
Monday night
The five new two-candidate preference throws conducted today confirmed Labor wins in Fong Lim, Arnhem and Johnston and a CLP win in Katherine. They did not resolve the situation in Blain, where the distribution of Terry Mills’ preferences shows almost nothing between Labor’s Mark Turner and Matthew Kerle of the Country Liberals, with the former leading 2023-2002. This will be decided by the Coolalinga pre-poll booth, which recorded 148 votes from the electorate and still hasn’t reported for some reason.
Further counting today looked to confirm CLP wins in Braitling and Brennan, and they moved into a probably decisive lead in Daly, one of two seats they held in the previous parliament. In Barkly, Labor’s Sid Vashist’s held his lead at 72 votes, presumably thanks to rechecking, since absents broke 109-86 to the CLP. However, Namatjira is still up in the air, with Labor still holding on to a lead of 19 votes, although the strong trend to the CLP in postals seems likely to determine it in their favour. Robyn Lambley is clinging on to a 21-vote lead in Araluen, with absents breaking 142-131 but rechecking presumably cancelling it out, since she led by 26 votes yesterday.
This leaves Labor assured of a majority with no fewer than 14 seats, the CLP home in six and independents on two. The CLP could potentially win a further three, but those seats might equally go to Labor in two cases and Robyn Lambley in one.
Sunday night
The Northern Territory Electoral Commission will today conduct two-candidate preferred counts in five seats where its election night counts picked the wrong two candidates. This could potentially settle doubts about three close races: Arnhem, where the preferences of the CLP candidate and an independent will decide the result between Labor incumbent Selena Uibo and independent Ian Mongunu Gumbula, and Fong Lim, which looks a tight race between Labor and the CLP based on the primary vote, but where defeated Territory Alliance incumbent Jeff Collins was included in the preference count conducted on Saturday night; and Blain, where Terry Mills’s preferences will decide the result between Matthew Kerle of the Country Liberals and Mark Turner of the CLP. The other two seats are Katherine and Johnston, which will clearly be won by the CLP and Labor respectively.
Today’s counting widened Labor’s lead in Barkly from 71 to 102, which will probably be decisive — there are at most 600 votes outstanding for the CLP to turn the margin around. Braitling is now looking good for the CLP, as 108 postals split about evenly, leaving the 105 vote CLP lead looking too big for the outstanding votes to overhaul. The CLP has also taken the lead in Namatjira, where postals broke 81-26, turning Labor’s 30 vote lead into a 25 vote deficit, and they would also be hopeful that the trend on postals will deliver them Daly, where Labor’s lead has been cut from 28 to seven. Very much still in doubt are Brennan, where the CLP’s lead narrowed from 59 to 48 with the counting of 251 postals, with at least 400 votes still out there; and Araluen, where 179 postals increased Robyn Lambley’s lead from 13 to 26.
Barkly would give Labor a twelfth seat, from which it can hope to make it to a majority if either or both of the counts in Arnhem and Fong Lim go their way today. However, Braitling, Namatjira and probably Brennan and Daly are more likely to go to the CLP, adding to their clear wins in Spillett, Nelson and Katherine, with Fong Lim and Araluen at least potentially getting them to nine. There will be two independents from Goyder and Mulka, potentially a third from Arnhem, and perhaps also Robyn Lambley as a sole survivor of the Territory Alliance.
Close of night summary
Election night ended with a great many questions unanswered, such that all sorts of outcomes are mathematically possible. However, it is extremely unlikely that Labor will fail to win a majority. Of the seats we can be certain about, they have won 10, all of them carried over from the previous parliament: Casuarina, Drysdale, Fannie Bay, Gwoja (former Stuart), Johnston, Karama, Nightcliff, Port Darwin, Sanderson and Wanguri. The CLP can only be certain of two seats: Spillett, held by party leader Lia Finocchiaro, and Nelson, which has been gained with the retirement of its independent member Gerry Wood. Independent incumbents have retained Goyder and Mulka (formerly Nhulunbuy).
This leaves question marks of some kind over no fewer than 11 seats, although it might be thought a stretch to include Arafura and Blain, respectively all but certain to be won by Labor and the CLP. If those two are given away, Labor starts with 12 and the CLP with three. Six of the remaining nine in doubt could potentially be won by Labor, and the CLP is at least in contention in eight of them.
Arafura. Labor incumbent Lawrence Costa leads Gibson Illortaminni of the CLP 1155-1016, a lead of 139 votes. Illortaminni needs at least 80% of 353 remaining to be counted or, more realistically, the discovery of a serious error.
Araluen. Territory Alliance incumbent Robyn Lambley leads Damien Ryan of the CLP 1821-1808, a margin of 13. Outstanding issued votes are 494 postals, 70 pre-polls and 37 mobile booths, so obviously anything could happen here.
Arnhem. This is a race between Labor’s Selena Uibo and independent Ian Mongunu Gumbula, for which we don’t have a two-candidate count since the candidates designated for it were Labor and the CLP. Uibo has 41.5% of the primary vote to Gumbula’s 34.0%, which Gumbula could overhaul with two-third of the preferences from the CLP (16.4%) and another independent (8.2%). Outstanding issued votes — 322 postals, 95 pre-polls and 84 mobiles — will tend to widen Labor’s primary vote lead.
Barkly. After the Tennant Creek pre-poll rode to his rescue, Labor’s Sid Vashist ended the night with a lead of 71 (1137-1066) over CLP candidate Steve Edgington. Outstanding issued votes: 316 postals, 209 pre-polls, 122 mobiles.
Blain. One of the biggest surprises of the night was that Terry Mills finished a distant third out of three, resulting in the abandonment of the notional preference count between him and Labor’s Mark Turner. Mills’ preferences will decide the result between Turner, on 41.7%, and Matthew Kerle of the CLP, on 35.1%. Kerle needs about 64% of them, and the ABC projection appears to be based on an estimate of 75%.
Braitling. Joshua Burgoyne of the CLP finished the night with a lead of 101 over Labor’s Dale Wakefield, or 1958-1857. Wakefield needs at least 60% out of the outstanding issued votes: 399 postals, 73 pre-polls, 54 mobiles.
Brennan. Marie-Clare Boothby of the CLP holds a 59-vote lead (1812-1753) over Labor member Tony Sievers. Still to be added are the 153 votes cast at the Coolalinga pre-poll centre, together with 491 postals, 31 pre-polls and 23 mobiles.
Daly. In a seat vacated by Gary Higgins of the CLP, Anthony Venes of Labor ends the night with a 28-vote lead (1674-1646) over Ian Sloan of the CLP. Outstanding issued votes: 438 postals, 63 pre-polls, 29 mobiles.
Fong Lim. The notional two-candidate count was between Labor’s Mark Monaghan and Territory Alliance incumbent Jeff Collins, but the latter typified his party’s performance by finishing a distant third on 11.5%. Monaghan ends the night with 42.0% of the vote to CLP candidate Kylie Bonanni on 36.5%. This leaves Bonanni needing about 63% of the preferences of Collins and an independent who polled the remaining 9.9%. Three pre-poll centres accounting for 184 votes have yet to report; other outstanding issued votes are 413 postals, 31 mobiles and 20 pre-polls.
Katherine. Melanie Usher of the Territory Alliance will win if she can make the top two, but the most likely result is she will fall just short. She has 1020 primary votes (30.1%), a shade behind both Kate Ganley of Labor on 1116 (32.9%) and Jo Hersey of the CLP on 1094 (32.3%). Should she finish third, her preferences will win it for Hersey. Outstanding issued votes: 349 postals, 198 mobiles and 98 pre-polls.
Namatjira. This now looks like another seat where the Territory Alliance did well but not well enough, leaving the final count between Labor and the CLP, as per the notional preference count. This ended the night with Labor’s Sheralee Taylor with a 30-vote lead over the CLP’s Bill Yan, 1480-1450. Outstanding issued votes: 408 postals, 121 mobiles and 48 pre-polls.
Election night commentary
9.54pm. I didn’t make note earlier of Malarndirri McCarthy’s claim earlier that Labor was still in the hunt in Barkly, but events have borne it out: Labor won the Tennant Creek pre-poll booth 701-525, and now leads 1109 votes to 1047.
9.39pm. Braitling and Namatjira remain up in the air, with so much riding on the yet-to-report Alice Springs pre-poll booth.
9.36pm. In Katherine, Territory Alliance wins if it finishes second, and the CLP wins otherwise. Currently it’s Labor 32.8%, CLP 32.1% and Territory Alliance 30.3%, leaving the Territory Alliance heavily reliant on preferences from an independent who polled 4.8%, and a better performance on late counting that is typical of minor party candidates.
9.29pm. Antony Green discussing Araluen, which I had lot sight of: Robyn Lambley is now in trouble there, holding on to a lead by a handful of votes.
9.22pm. Labor appear to have firmed in Port Darwin, where the Darwin pre-poll booth has behaved fairly typically for the electorate. The ABC computer isn’t quite giving it to Labor though. I was including it when I credited Labor with 13 seats just now.
9.11pm. The second mobile booth from Arafura that Antony Green was being cautious about was indeed a lot better for the CLP than the first, but not by enough to put Labor in serious danger. I believe that puts to rest any doubt they will have a majority.
9.09pm. My earlier notion that the Palmerston pre-poll might save Terry Mills has proved a bust — he actually lost particularly badly there. The NTEC has now pulled its Mills-versus-Labor preference count. I believe the ABC computer is splitting Mills’ preferences 75-25 to the CLP — they will win if it’s better than 64-36.
8.46pm. Some numbers at last from Gwoja (formerly Stuart), where Labor has gone untroubled.
8.44pm. However, Antony Green says he thinks there is an anomaly in the count, suggesting the CLP is actually ahead.
8.41pm. A development in the count for Daly, which the ABC site is now recorded as a Labor gain.
8.39pm. There are non-trivial numbers now in Arnhem, with 10.3% counted, and there are no surprises: a big swing against Labor, but not enough to cost them the seat.
8.36pm. There’s been a big advance in the count in Araluen, and it seems clear Robyn Lambley will win, being well clear of Labor and solidly ahead of the CLP on the two-party count.
8.14pm. Funeral rites being read for Terry Mills on the ABC, but I still wonder if the Palmerston pre-poll booth might pull a rabbit out of the hat for him. Party spokesperson Delia Lawrie clearly doesn’t think so though.
7.52pm. We’re in the now customary lull between the election day booths having been wrapped up and waiting for the pre-polls, now more important than ever. One aside to note is that the Greens are second in Nightcliff, which I don’t think they’ve done in the NT before, although the seat is a clear win for Labor.
7.42pm. Katherine had been looking good for the Territory Alliance, but their candidate has now fallen to third in a close three-way race on the primary vote. If she stays there, the seat should revert to CLP type. They count is well advanced, at 59.1% counted.
7.38pm. Substantial numbers of votes in from Arafura, and the ABC computer says it’s lineball, but the raw figures look okay for Labor, who lead 578-384.
7.35pm. The ABC computer is giving the CLP six seats, but I can only see three that are bolted down — the two seats they hold already, Spillett and Daly, and Nelson.
7.33pm. I can see nine seats Labor look like winning, together with another three bush seats which you’d think they would win but where the count is too early or not started (Arafura, Arnhem and Gwoja). On top of that are another five seats which they could win. So a lot would have to go wrong for them to fall short of a majority.
7.23pm. Robyn Lambley now leads the CLP in Araluen, but the two booths in are both from election day. This will likely be decided by the Alice Springs pre-poll booth.
7.22pm. Labor-turned-Territory Alliance member Jeff Collins clearly won’t win Fong Lim, which looks like going back to Labor.
7.19pm. Some good news for the CLP from the Tennant Creek seat of Barkly, which they look like gaining after Labor won big in 2016.
7.14pm. Namatjira looks interesting, and a potential bright spot for the Territory Alliance; Labor, Territory Alliance and the CLP are about even on the primary vote. If the Territory Alliance can stay ahead of Labor, they probably win on their preferences. Slow count in Katherine, but their candidate their leads on the primary vote. So that’s two seats for them; Robyn Lambley is at least in the hunt in Araluen. But Terry Mills will have to pull a rabbit out of the hat in Blain. The ABC computer is giving Blain to Labor, but that’s based on a preference estimate that may be flattering them — a strong flow of Mills’ preferences to the CLP could give them the seat.
7.13pm. Independent Kezia Purick has retained Goyder, but the CLP looks like gaining Nelson with the retirement of independent Gerry Wood.
7.10pm. Labor are looking good though in the normally decisive Darwin suburbs seats: Casuarina, Johnston, Sanderson, Wanguri. But the CLP at least looks like picking up Port Darwin, a usually safe safe for them. The Territory Alliance are consistently running third in these places.
7.08pm. I wouldn’t be writing off Terry Mills either. The raw NTEC count has four booths in
7.05pm. The NTEC site is ahead of the ABC in Araluen, and it doesn’t look so bad for Robyn Lambley there — she’s a clear second ahead of Labor, and at least a prospect to win the seat on their preferences. The ABC computer is calling it for the CLP, but that’s based on Lambley coming third.
7.02pm. Another Territory Alliance incumbent, Robyn Lambley, is running third in her Alice Springs seat of Araluen — still early in the count, but if Lambley’s position doesn’t improve the seat looks like reverting to CLP type.
7.01pm. But again: what we may be seeing is Labor outperforming in election day booths, and the pre-poll booths may wind it back for them.
7.00pm. To the extent that a picture is emerging, it’s looking encouraging for Labor: they seem to be holding up in Darwin and are competitive in the Alice Springs seat of Braitling, which they were probably expecting to lose.
6.59pm. Though as Antony just points out, Mills is running third. The NTEC’s count is Mills versus Labor, but it may be that the final result will be Labor versus CLP.
6.56pm. The ABC computer is calling Terry Mills’ seat of Blain for Labor, but under the circumstances I’d want to see more votes. Most of the call is down to the election day Rosebery booth, and that could easily get washed away if it turns out his supporters were mostly going pre-poll.
6.49pm. The betting markets were expected new independent Beverley Ratahi to win Nelson, being vacated by independent veteran Gerry Wood, but the CLP have an early lead.
6.43pm. The ABC computer has Labor retaining the Darwin seats of Wanguri and Sanderson with slight swings in their favour. This is obviously encouraging for them, but a great deal of caution should be added given the near impossible task of effective booth-matching at this election. As just noted on ABC TV, Labor will clearly not repeat its coup of winning Katherine in 2016, where the Territory Alliance candidate is off to a good start.
6.33pm. The first booth in Michael Gunner’s seat of Fannie Bay has, by Antony Green’s reckoning, a swing to the CLP of 3.9%. His margin is 12.5%.
6.30pm. The first booth in is Tindal in Arnhem, which is the RAAF base near Katherine that has been newly added to the electorate in the redistribution. Only 76 votes, but the result is basically unchanged on 2016, when it was in the Katherine electorate.
6pm. Polls have closed for the Northern Territory election. I’m still scrambling to get some sort of live results reporting system in operation, but anything I’ll be able to manage will be experimental at best, and may not happen at all until the end of the night. You can naturally find the results at the ABC and the Northern Territory Electoral Commission.
Bugler @ #95 Saturday, August 22nd, 2020 – 10:52 pm
Yes, relentless positivism. I found it jarring though when she made light of the fact she hasn’t been with her children, 2 and 4.
Managing to triple your party’s seats in parliament is a good result, I guess. And they don’t need a vote to figure out if they’re the opposition. The silver medal is theirs.
https://australiandebtclock.com.au/
The NT is not alone.
C@t what’s your Aunty Clares take ?
LNP lady is apparently hopeful of forming a block with the Independents and the In Doubts.
C@tmomma,
I thought it’s been odd that quite a few CLP spokespeople (including their leader) have said “the NT has voted for jobs, security, ect…”
Um, they didn’t vote for the CLP so the conclusion is that the Gunner ALP Government provides that? Do they not hear themselves?
Anastacia Palacsjuk did better. And she got Labor into government from the position of being able to hold caucus meetings in a kitchen.
Bugler @ #106 Saturday, August 22nd, 2020 – 10:59 pm
It was exactly like a winners speech, given by the loser. Greg Jennet kindly interpolated that it was a speech to rally the troops (a bit late for that I thought). Wasn’t it Billy Sneddon who said, the Liberal Party won but they just didn’t get enough seats? 😀
First Arnhem mobile booth smashes it for ALP, though this is 2PP with CLP – and the Independent looks strong
https://ntec.nt.gov.au/elections/2020-territory-election/results/arnhem
Arnhem: Gumbula the indie is now second, thanks to the first mobile booth. Labor down to 40%. This one’s back on.
Looks like a ALP vs Independent result in Arnhem. ALP on 708 primaries to 498 to Ian Mongunu Gumbula. CLP way down on 353.
Double snap!
Yes Bird, the 2PP misled me
There really needs to be secure counting of Pre Poll votes before election day, with results kept secret until election night.
Palacsjuk did pull a miracle thanks to the ineptness of Newman government. What a dumpster fire that was!
So is not conceding defeat when they clearly lose the new convention for the Liberals? (Remembering Katvjoys in the recent bi-election pulled the same stunt). Are they channelling Trump?
B.S. Fairman @ #115 Saturday, August 22nd, 2020 – 11:07 pm
What brought her back to mind was Lia Finocchiaro’s invocation of the ‘Can Do’ mentality. Probably better off binning that particular slogan.
So on Antony Greens chart the CLP vote is down -1.2%. How is that “we are back”? Lia is unhinged.
Socrates @ #116 Saturday, August 22nd, 2020 – 11:08 pm
Yep. The NT CLP Senator who replaced Nigel Scullion was even stating that the CLP would get into double digits of seats won! Relentless Positivism, of the kind found at Evangelical churches, strikes again. Maybe they channel it from their dear leader in Canberra? 😉
If those candidates in Blaine and Nelson are in any way representative of the reborn CLP, I’m not sure how much of a “cracker” this opposition will be. They seemed like the type you usually preselect for unwinnable seats, not the battlegrounds.
Their leader comes across like student politician, not an alternative premier (well, chief minister.) Hard to believe she’s only a few years younger than Jacinta Arden. The difference in gravitas is incredibly stark. I mean, all credit to her – being a one-person opposition in your mid-thirties would be no easy task, particularly as a women in a party like the CLP- but she seems like she’s out of her depth.
Socrates @ #118 Saturday, August 22nd, 2020 – 11:11 pm
It’s not just her. Larry Anthony was saying they had increased their representation, 300%! Or, iow, going from 2 seats to 6.
Cat
Albanese can commiserate with Gunnar in the morning for coming first. I’m sure he will forgive him 🙂
Soc, there’s got to be some new management theory out of the Harvard Business School or something like that which teaches them to be that way. It’s never a loss, it’s a win because…
Socrates @ #122 Saturday, August 22nd, 2020 – 11:14 pm
Yes, 2/2 of the only polls that count is something that no one in Labor should be proud of. 😀
Trump does it too. Don’t mention the war….against Coronavirus.
C@tmomma:
It’s been a weird trend in recent elections. I remember Canavan being in serious denial throughout the last QLD election too – Nicholls also refused to concede too, though he at least had the good grace to be miserable as he gave his not-a-concession speech.
Cat
You can really see the tears flowing in the Labor post election event at Waratah club, which looks about as close to a packed celebration as I have seen in the covid era. Or is that beer? On that happy note, I will bid you good night 🙂
Cat
“Soc, there’s got to be some new management theory out of the Harvard Business School or something like that which teaches them to be that way. It’s never a loss, it’s a win because…”
It is salesman training 101. Books like “Who Dares, Sells”. Pop-psychology delusional trash. Night.
Barkly: one of those mobile booths was actually won by Gadrian Hoosan, independent from Borroloola. Not yet counted as 2pp, and it’ll make the difference.
Imagine not getting on the front bench if you were in the 6?
Deserved win for Labor. Congrats.
CLP faring a bit worse than I thought they would. They are in no position to be crowing about their ‘great comeback’ as it is off a very low base, is in large part an expected correction back to a more normal situation after their massive arse kicking last time, and they really need to have at least 8-9 seats to be within reach at the next election.
Despite the increase in their vote I don’t think the Territory Alliance can take much comfort from tonight. At best they will have one seat and only just.
The big FU this result sends to Murdoch and his shitty local rag is the icing on the cake. Its editor might be in the job market on Monday.
And boom – here’s the Coolalinga EVC in Daly. Big win to CLP, and Labor lead by just six votes.
Arnhem: Gumbula wins the other mobile booth, and is now up to 34%.
This is looking a bit dicey for the ALP in terms of getting to 13 seats. The independent looks quite well placed in Arnhem. Maybe one of the others will come through though.
If not, the ALP have to swallow tits pride about Kevin Purick and make her speaker again. Even then, no floor majority .
Not a bad result for the CLP. Saw off the TA and should have 9 or 10 seats.
Given the COVID Boost for all current Governments it’s a pretty weak outcome for the ALP.
Bucephalus:
I’m sure they’ll be crying themselves to sleep over it.
I’m impressed with the Territory Alliance woman’s ability to mindlessly recite the party line even as said party is disintegrating before her eyes
And, Christ, you know a party is in dire straights when their idea of a victory is being able to form an opposition!
Daly: Darwin EVC in (all 92 votes of it). 57-35 to Labor, so they now lead by 28.
How on earth does Mr. Green tolerate the mispronunciation of his first name by Greg Jennett? I first noticed this a few elections ago, and I can only assume that Antony enjoys his job so much that he hasn’t noticed.
Also, how bitter is Sam McMahon?
Coming in late.
Without any opinions what’s the verdict?
Bucephalus
Given the supposed strong form from your leader Mr Adman and an even more vote solidifying effort from Mr Coelbach I am surprised your preferred party managed to remain in opposition in the NT.
Your thoughts?
What does it mean for Queensland? Well it’s not an especially strong result for the ALP, a swing of 4 % or so in 2pp. But the NT Government seemed to be in a bad way at the beginning of this year. Satisfactory COVID performance may have given it that extra couple of percentage points that got it over the line.
But there is much less fat in Qld for the ALP and so I think they would be just a little more worried now.
Historyintime
“But there is much less fat in Qld for the ALP and so I think they would be just a little more worried now”.
Thanks for your well researched take on things.
Qld Labor are shivering in their boots now they have seen your take on things.
My thoughts?
Keep on baking scones.
Been There,
Tut tut, a little courtesy might help. My thoughts, if banal, are rather more worthwhile than low sarcasm.
I don’t think you can even compare this to other NT elections, let alone ones in other states. Labor still have a lock on Darwin, have increased their majority in a Palmerston seat and possibly held onto Alice Springs seats, and maybe won Daly from a retiring CLP leader. Meanwhile, Aboriginal independents are emerging as a movement. Mulka, Arnhem and the Borroloola end of Barkly. Something’s definitely changing in NT political patterns. TA didn’t manage to take advantage of that change, but it is happening.
If Gumbula wins Arnhem and forms a bloc with Guyula, that could end up being pivotal. Labor won’t have a huge majority, and if they lose an MP or two they’ll need to get friendly with either them or Kezia Purick.
Historyintime
Apologies for my banal thoughts.
I still repute your translation of the NT results to Qld.
Very wishful thinking on your behalf!
Historyintime
By the way, you do realise QLD and NT are two completely different states as far as politics go.
Believe me, I’ve lived and worked in both of them.
While the seats may be all over the shop, I still think the 2pp will tell us something. I haven’t seen a calculation yet, but if you assume 65% of TA preferences go to the opposition, you get about 53.5%/46.5% to the ALP. That is a swing of 4% against the ALP from 2016. Probably an acceptable result in the circumstances and one that you would think the NT ALP would have been happy with if offered up pre COVID. In that regard, I think you can say that there has been some COVID impact in an electoral sense.
Well Been There, I too have lived (albeit briefly) in the NT and QLD and do indeed appreciate the cultural and demographic differences. I think the question here is whether there is an electoral benefit for successful COVID leadership, and of what size. In particular, would it be large enough to help the Queensland ALP get over the line.
Historyintime
Appreciate your thoughts.
Love the great Top End. My land of birth.
Cheers!