Results
The links below lead to full displays of results for the 25 seats, updated live. Please excuse a few bugs that may still be evident, and also note that the calculations of booth swings and preference flows in cases where two-candidate preferred counts are not available are rather unscientific.
Thursday night
Robyn Lambley’s ever-precarious lead in Araluen ended the day at 13 votes, down from 17 yesterday. The NTEC says there are still 205 postals and 59 declaration votes outstanding, although not all of these will end up in the count. No new counting today in Namatjira and Barkly, and still nothing new in Blain.
Wednesday night
The CLP has hit the lead in Namatjira, where a strong trend on postals pushed them from 15 behind to six ahead, and slashed Labor’s lead in Barkly from 72 to 23, where both absents and postals added today favoured the CLP. All that would remain is a few dozen postals tops, which are unlikely to do Labor any favours, and maybe a dozen or two provisional votes, which might. In Araluen, what Robyn Lambley’s lead in Araluen has lacked in size it has made up for in consistency: extra postals and absents today left it at 17, to which it has progressed from 13 on Saturday to 26 on Sunday to 21 on Monday. Still no further counting in Blain, where Labor leads by 21. This leaves Labor with 13 confirmed wins and leads over the CLP in another two; the CLP with six confirmed wins and leads over Labor in one; and the Territory Alliance with a lead over Labor in another. Antony Green notes Labor’s primary vote is down 2.5% on the last election but the CLP’s has hardly changed, and that the CLP picked up only a small two-party swing and that even part of that could be accounted for by the switch to compulsory preferential voting.
Tuesday night
Everything that was in doubt yesterday remains in doubt today, although Labor’s 21-vote lead in Blain is handier than I thought it was: yesterday I said it would come down to the Coolalinga pre-poll booth, but Antony Green points out in comments that the votes here will have been entered as absents. No counting was conducted today for Blain or Araluen, where Robyn Lambley leads by 21. I’m not sure exactly what was counted in Namatjira today, but it has reduced Labor’s lead from 19 to 15.
Monday night
The five new two-candidate preference throws conducted today confirmed Labor wins in Fong Lim, Arnhem and Johnston and a CLP win in Katherine. They did not resolve the situation in Blain, where the distribution of Terry Mills’ preferences shows almost nothing between Labor’s Mark Turner and Matthew Kerle of the Country Liberals, with the former leading 2023-2002. This will be decided by the Coolalinga pre-poll booth, which recorded 148 votes from the electorate and still hasn’t reported for some reason.
Further counting today looked to confirm CLP wins in Braitling and Brennan, and they moved into a probably decisive lead in Daly, one of two seats they held in the previous parliament. In Barkly, Labor’s Sid Vashist’s held his lead at 72 votes, presumably thanks to rechecking, since absents broke 109-86 to the CLP. However, Namatjira is still up in the air, with Labor still holding on to a lead of 19 votes, although the strong trend to the CLP in postals seems likely to determine it in their favour. Robyn Lambley is clinging on to a 21-vote lead in Araluen, with absents breaking 142-131 but rechecking presumably cancelling it out, since she led by 26 votes yesterday.
This leaves Labor assured of a majority with no fewer than 14 seats, the CLP home in six and independents on two. The CLP could potentially win a further three, but those seats might equally go to Labor in two cases and Robyn Lambley in one.
Sunday night
The Northern Territory Electoral Commission will today conduct two-candidate preferred counts in five seats where its election night counts picked the wrong two candidates. This could potentially settle doubts about three close races: Arnhem, where the preferences of the CLP candidate and an independent will decide the result between Labor incumbent Selena Uibo and independent Ian Mongunu Gumbula, and Fong Lim, which looks a tight race between Labor and the CLP based on the primary vote, but where defeated Territory Alliance incumbent Jeff Collins was included in the preference count conducted on Saturday night; and Blain, where Terry Mills’s preferences will decide the result between Matthew Kerle of the Country Liberals and Mark Turner of the CLP. The other two seats are Katherine and Johnston, which will clearly be won by the CLP and Labor respectively.
Today’s counting widened Labor’s lead in Barkly from 71 to 102, which will probably be decisive — there are at most 600 votes outstanding for the CLP to turn the margin around. Braitling is now looking good for the CLP, as 108 postals split about evenly, leaving the 105 vote CLP lead looking too big for the outstanding votes to overhaul. The CLP has also taken the lead in Namatjira, where postals broke 81-26, turning Labor’s 30 vote lead into a 25 vote deficit, and they would also be hopeful that the trend on postals will deliver them Daly, where Labor’s lead has been cut from 28 to seven. Very much still in doubt are Brennan, where the CLP’s lead narrowed from 59 to 48 with the counting of 251 postals, with at least 400 votes still out there; and Araluen, where 179 postals increased Robyn Lambley’s lead from 13 to 26.
Barkly would give Labor a twelfth seat, from which it can hope to make it to a majority if either or both of the counts in Arnhem and Fong Lim go their way today. However, Braitling, Namatjira and probably Brennan and Daly are more likely to go to the CLP, adding to their clear wins in Spillett, Nelson and Katherine, with Fong Lim and Araluen at least potentially getting them to nine. There will be two independents from Goyder and Mulka, potentially a third from Arnhem, and perhaps also Robyn Lambley as a sole survivor of the Territory Alliance.
Close of night summary
Election night ended with a great many questions unanswered, such that all sorts of outcomes are mathematically possible. However, it is extremely unlikely that Labor will fail to win a majority. Of the seats we can be certain about, they have won 10, all of them carried over from the previous parliament: Casuarina, Drysdale, Fannie Bay, Gwoja (former Stuart), Johnston, Karama, Nightcliff, Port Darwin, Sanderson and Wanguri. The CLP can only be certain of two seats: Spillett, held by party leader Lia Finocchiaro, and Nelson, which has been gained with the retirement of its independent member Gerry Wood. Independent incumbents have retained Goyder and Mulka (formerly Nhulunbuy).
This leaves question marks of some kind over no fewer than 11 seats, although it might be thought a stretch to include Arafura and Blain, respectively all but certain to be won by Labor and the CLP. If those two are given away, Labor starts with 12 and the CLP with three. Six of the remaining nine in doubt could potentially be won by Labor, and the CLP is at least in contention in eight of them.
Arafura. Labor incumbent Lawrence Costa leads Gibson Illortaminni of the CLP 1155-1016, a lead of 139 votes. Illortaminni needs at least 80% of 353 remaining to be counted or, more realistically, the discovery of a serious error.
Araluen. Territory Alliance incumbent Robyn Lambley leads Damien Ryan of the CLP 1821-1808, a margin of 13. Outstanding issued votes are 494 postals, 70 pre-polls and 37 mobile booths, so obviously anything could happen here.
Arnhem. This is a race between Labor’s Selena Uibo and independent Ian Mongunu Gumbula, for which we don’t have a two-candidate count since the candidates designated for it were Labor and the CLP. Uibo has 41.5% of the primary vote to Gumbula’s 34.0%, which Gumbula could overhaul with two-third of the preferences from the CLP (16.4%) and another independent (8.2%). Outstanding issued votes — 322 postals, 95 pre-polls and 84 mobiles — will tend to widen Labor’s primary vote lead.
Barkly. After the Tennant Creek pre-poll rode to his rescue, Labor’s Sid Vashist ended the night with a lead of 71 (1137-1066) over CLP candidate Steve Edgington. Outstanding issued votes: 316 postals, 209 pre-polls, 122 mobiles.
Blain. One of the biggest surprises of the night was that Terry Mills finished a distant third out of three, resulting in the abandonment of the notional preference count between him and Labor’s Mark Turner. Mills’ preferences will decide the result between Turner, on 41.7%, and Matthew Kerle of the CLP, on 35.1%. Kerle needs about 64% of them, and the ABC projection appears to be based on an estimate of 75%.
Braitling. Joshua Burgoyne of the CLP finished the night with a lead of 101 over Labor’s Dale Wakefield, or 1958-1857. Wakefield needs at least 60% out of the outstanding issued votes: 399 postals, 73 pre-polls, 54 mobiles.
Brennan. Marie-Clare Boothby of the CLP holds a 59-vote lead (1812-1753) over Labor member Tony Sievers. Still to be added are the 153 votes cast at the Coolalinga pre-poll centre, together with 491 postals, 31 pre-polls and 23 mobiles.
Daly. In a seat vacated by Gary Higgins of the CLP, Anthony Venes of Labor ends the night with a 28-vote lead (1674-1646) over Ian Sloan of the CLP. Outstanding issued votes: 438 postals, 63 pre-polls, 29 mobiles.
Fong Lim. The notional two-candidate count was between Labor’s Mark Monaghan and Territory Alliance incumbent Jeff Collins, but the latter typified his party’s performance by finishing a distant third on 11.5%. Monaghan ends the night with 42.0% of the vote to CLP candidate Kylie Bonanni on 36.5%. This leaves Bonanni needing about 63% of the preferences of Collins and an independent who polled the remaining 9.9%. Three pre-poll centres accounting for 184 votes have yet to report; other outstanding issued votes are 413 postals, 31 mobiles and 20 pre-polls.
Katherine. Melanie Usher of the Territory Alliance will win if she can make the top two, but the most likely result is she will fall just short. She has 1020 primary votes (30.1%), a shade behind both Kate Ganley of Labor on 1116 (32.9%) and Jo Hersey of the CLP on 1094 (32.3%). Should she finish third, her preferences will win it for Hersey. Outstanding issued votes: 349 postals, 198 mobiles and 98 pre-polls.
Namatjira. This now looks like another seat where the Territory Alliance did well but not well enough, leaving the final count between Labor and the CLP, as per the notional preference count. This ended the night with Labor’s Sheralee Taylor with a 30-vote lead over the CLP’s Bill Yan, 1480-1450. Outstanding issued votes: 408 postals, 121 mobiles and 48 pre-polls.
Election night commentary
9.54pm. I didn’t make note earlier of Malarndirri McCarthy’s claim earlier that Labor was still in the hunt in Barkly, but events have borne it out: Labor won the Tennant Creek pre-poll booth 701-525, and now leads 1109 votes to 1047.
9.39pm. Braitling and Namatjira remain up in the air, with so much riding on the yet-to-report Alice Springs pre-poll booth.
9.36pm. In Katherine, Territory Alliance wins if it finishes second, and the CLP wins otherwise. Currently it’s Labor 32.8%, CLP 32.1% and Territory Alliance 30.3%, leaving the Territory Alliance heavily reliant on preferences from an independent who polled 4.8%, and a better performance on late counting that is typical of minor party candidates.
9.29pm. Antony Green discussing Araluen, which I had lot sight of: Robyn Lambley is now in trouble there, holding on to a lead by a handful of votes.
9.22pm. Labor appear to have firmed in Port Darwin, where the Darwin pre-poll booth has behaved fairly typically for the electorate. The ABC computer isn’t quite giving it to Labor though. I was including it when I credited Labor with 13 seats just now.
9.11pm. The second mobile booth from Arafura that Antony Green was being cautious about was indeed a lot better for the CLP than the first, but not by enough to put Labor in serious danger. I believe that puts to rest any doubt they will have a majority.
9.09pm. My earlier notion that the Palmerston pre-poll might save Terry Mills has proved a bust — he actually lost particularly badly there. The NTEC has now pulled its Mills-versus-Labor preference count. I believe the ABC computer is splitting Mills’ preferences 75-25 to the CLP — they will win if it’s better than 64-36.
8.46pm. Some numbers at last from Gwoja (formerly Stuart), where Labor has gone untroubled.
8.44pm. However, Antony Green says he thinks there is an anomaly in the count, suggesting the CLP is actually ahead.
8.41pm. A development in the count for Daly, which the ABC site is now recorded as a Labor gain.
8.39pm. There are non-trivial numbers now in Arnhem, with 10.3% counted, and there are no surprises: a big swing against Labor, but not enough to cost them the seat.
8.36pm. There’s been a big advance in the count in Araluen, and it seems clear Robyn Lambley will win, being well clear of Labor and solidly ahead of the CLP on the two-party count.
8.14pm. Funeral rites being read for Terry Mills on the ABC, but I still wonder if the Palmerston pre-poll booth might pull a rabbit out of the hat for him. Party spokesperson Delia Lawrie clearly doesn’t think so though.
7.52pm. We’re in the now customary lull between the election day booths having been wrapped up and waiting for the pre-polls, now more important than ever. One aside to note is that the Greens are second in Nightcliff, which I don’t think they’ve done in the NT before, although the seat is a clear win for Labor.
7.42pm. Katherine had been looking good for the Territory Alliance, but their candidate has now fallen to third in a close three-way race on the primary vote. If she stays there, the seat should revert to CLP type. They count is well advanced, at 59.1% counted.
7.38pm. Substantial numbers of votes in from Arafura, and the ABC computer says it’s lineball, but the raw figures look okay for Labor, who lead 578-384.
7.35pm. The ABC computer is giving the CLP six seats, but I can only see three that are bolted down — the two seats they hold already, Spillett and Daly, and Nelson.
7.33pm. I can see nine seats Labor look like winning, together with another three bush seats which you’d think they would win but where the count is too early or not started (Arafura, Arnhem and Gwoja). On top of that are another five seats which they could win. So a lot would have to go wrong for them to fall short of a majority.
7.23pm. Robyn Lambley now leads the CLP in Araluen, but the two booths in are both from election day. This will likely be decided by the Alice Springs pre-poll booth.
7.22pm. Labor-turned-Territory Alliance member Jeff Collins clearly won’t win Fong Lim, which looks like going back to Labor.
7.19pm. Some good news for the CLP from the Tennant Creek seat of Barkly, which they look like gaining after Labor won big in 2016.
7.14pm. Namatjira looks interesting, and a potential bright spot for the Territory Alliance; Labor, Territory Alliance and the CLP are about even on the primary vote. If the Territory Alliance can stay ahead of Labor, they probably win on their preferences. Slow count in Katherine, but their candidate their leads on the primary vote. So that’s two seats for them; Robyn Lambley is at least in the hunt in Araluen. But Terry Mills will have to pull a rabbit out of the hat in Blain. The ABC computer is giving Blain to Labor, but that’s based on a preference estimate that may be flattering them — a strong flow of Mills’ preferences to the CLP could give them the seat.
7.13pm. Independent Kezia Purick has retained Goyder, but the CLP looks like gaining Nelson with the retirement of independent Gerry Wood.
7.10pm. Labor are looking good though in the normally decisive Darwin suburbs seats: Casuarina, Johnston, Sanderson, Wanguri. But the CLP at least looks like picking up Port Darwin, a usually safe safe for them. The Territory Alliance are consistently running third in these places.
7.08pm. I wouldn’t be writing off Terry Mills either. The raw NTEC count has four booths in
7.05pm. The NTEC site is ahead of the ABC in Araluen, and it doesn’t look so bad for Robyn Lambley there — she’s a clear second ahead of Labor, and at least a prospect to win the seat on their preferences. The ABC computer is calling it for the CLP, but that’s based on Lambley coming third.
7.02pm. Another Territory Alliance incumbent, Robyn Lambley, is running third in her Alice Springs seat of Araluen — still early in the count, but if Lambley’s position doesn’t improve the seat looks like reverting to CLP type.
7.01pm. But again: what we may be seeing is Labor outperforming in election day booths, and the pre-poll booths may wind it back for them.
7.00pm. To the extent that a picture is emerging, it’s looking encouraging for Labor: they seem to be holding up in Darwin and are competitive in the Alice Springs seat of Braitling, which they were probably expecting to lose.
6.59pm. Though as Antony just points out, Mills is running third. The NTEC’s count is Mills versus Labor, but it may be that the final result will be Labor versus CLP.
6.56pm. The ABC computer is calling Terry Mills’ seat of Blain for Labor, but under the circumstances I’d want to see more votes. Most of the call is down to the election day Rosebery booth, and that could easily get washed away if it turns out his supporters were mostly going pre-poll.
6.49pm. The betting markets were expected new independent Beverley Ratahi to win Nelson, being vacated by independent veteran Gerry Wood, but the CLP have an early lead.
6.43pm. The ABC computer has Labor retaining the Darwin seats of Wanguri and Sanderson with slight swings in their favour. This is obviously encouraging for them, but a great deal of caution should be added given the near impossible task of effective booth-matching at this election. As just noted on ABC TV, Labor will clearly not repeat its coup of winning Katherine in 2016, where the Territory Alliance candidate is off to a good start.
6.33pm. The first booth in Michael Gunner’s seat of Fannie Bay has, by Antony Green’s reckoning, a swing to the CLP of 3.9%. His margin is 12.5%.
6.30pm. The first booth in is Tindal in Arnhem, which is the RAAF base near Katherine that has been newly added to the electorate in the redistribution. Only 76 votes, but the result is basically unchanged on 2016, when it was in the Katherine electorate.
6pm. Polls have closed for the Northern Territory election. I’m still scrambling to get some sort of live results reporting system in operation, but anything I’ll be able to manage will be experimental at best, and may not happen at all until the end of the night. You can naturally find the results at the ABC and the Northern Territory Electoral Commission.
Good win for Labor. Will be clearly ahead in 2PP. Made a few bucks on sportsbet, got in at 1.80 @ Labor. It was clear to me Gunner had a good presence, social media and on TV. Clear similarities to Dan Andrews in terms of Facebook content with high engagement.
Another election that shows byelections are useless in predicting general elections. Not long ago NT Labor got a massive swing against them in Johnston byelection but held it today with barely any swing.
Also, another failed right-wing law and order campaign.
Gorks
Pretty good summary.
Well done, saved me the effort.
Doubt you’ll get any rebuttals from the other side.
Been There says:
Sunday, August 23, 2020 at 12:52 am
“Bucephalus
Given the supposed strong form from your leader Mr Adman and an even more vote solidifying effort from Mr Coelbach I am surprised your preferred party managed to remain in opposition in the NT.
Your thoughts?”
Incumbents have a huge advantage due to COVID. Rarely do Federal and State voting intentions align exactly.
C@t I’m disappointed your not sharing your Aunty Clare intel with us all? her being a family member and all you’d have an excellent behind the scenes intel view.
Lars Von Trier @ #154 Sunday, August 23rd, 2020 – 6:33 am
There you go again, LvT. I never said my family connection was with Clare Martin but with a member of the government of Clare Martin. However, that hasn’t stopped you from coming up with a sneering little one-liner in order to achieve what? A back-handed smack-down of a passive aggressive nature because I dared to criticise the result the voters of Fong Lim handed to your boy?
Fyi, my cousin by marriage is Peter Toyne, former Minister in Clare Martin’s government.
It gladdens my heart to see the results from the Northern Territory. It proves that, despite the major media outlet in that place throwing everything they could against the Gunner government; despite the defections from the Labor government to join the Territory Alliance; despite the redistribution, which made the result on the night very unpredictable, Labor still looks to have won a majority of seats and will be back in government again. It also looks to be neck and neck in seats that the CLP has a hold of. Real people voting for Labor in the middle of a global pandemic. Up against a campaign that tried its hardest to downplay the success of the Gunner government in fighting it, with a ‘yeah, so they did that well BUT they smashed the economy to do it!’ No mention of the fact that the CLP would have been in exactly the same situation if they were in government.
Real people giving Labor their real votes. It gives me hope for the future.
Ok c@t you did say family connection to the Clare Martin government, a cousin married to a minister fits i guess.
Whatever happened to Paul Henderson ? Does anybody know ?
Love your work, William.
I scrutineered inside one of the big booths yesterday morning. There have been extensive changes to NT election laws which restrict polling place canvassing. My observation was that almost nobody was using a how to vote card, which makes me question assumptions about how preferences will flow. Other campaign workers also observed that very few people wanted to take a how to vote card at the pre polling stations or outside polling places yesterday. The projected CLP win in Blain apparently assumes a 75% TA preference flow. To me, that assumption is questionable. A lot of counting remains to be done today and I expect the final outcome will be a lot clearer by tonight. My best guess is Labor to form a majority government with 14 seats.
NTEC has updated a couple of the counts this morning – in Barkly, Syd Vashist’s lead is now 102 votes. 35 postal votes were added – splitting 18 to CLP and 17 to ALP. That’s an encouraging start for Labor, although it’s a very small sample of postal votes to go on.
It’s interesting to see how TA preferences have split in a couple of the Northern suburbs seats where there has been a 3 horse race. In Karama, TA preferences have split 59/41 in favour of CLP. In Sanderson, the TA split is 56/44 in favour Labor. Bear in mind that TA “officially” preferenced CLP in both seats. How TA preferences split in other seats where there is no 2CP count as yet but Labor is ahead on primaries (eg, Blain and Fong Lim) remains to be seen.
Does anyone know whether Amye UN recommended preferences in Fong Lim? How her preferences flow in that seat will also be important.
Fong Lim : – It might still be the Fireman’s posthumous revenge to hand the seat to the CLP through preferences. He must have been toxic – only got 11% of the primary vote.
Somewhere OC is having a chuckle at his fate. Fire safety is the big loser out of this election.
Matt, I have not seen one of Anye Un’s HTVs, but I was told last night she ended up preferencing CLP ahead of Labor, and had a good presence at pre-polling centres and at the booth yesterday.
Outsider
I can certainly confirm she had a good presence at pre poll; think she was there pretty much every day my wife and I were.
How slow are the NT election results? 10% of the population are in the Territory Public Service and they can’t even count -what a maximum of 40,000 outstanding votes?
Some things never change: https://youtu.be/OxMc9HDy7a4?t=780
Most of the 40,000 outstanding votes don’t exist because turnout in the NT is so low, and of those that do exist many are postals that have not yet been received.
So its apparently Monday for a pref distribution and further counting of postals.
Antony Green says Labor needs 35.5% of preferences from UM and the Fireman to win Fong Lim, do you agree with that assessment Kevin?
George Negus in that vid: “Mr Peacock, I moustache you a question…” 😛
Didn’t notice this before – Gumbula in Arnhem was the CLP candidate in 2016 (against the sitting ex-CLP Larisa Lee, who got peanuts). He’s doing a fair bit better minus the party. He could expect some pretty strong preferences from the CLP (who ran a white pastoralist this time), so it’ll come down to the other independent.
Nightcliff: the Greens are currently third, will probably get into second on AJP prefs, then we’ll see what happens with TA prefs. Johnston is another seat where the Greens could end up second, if a lot of TA voters put them #2 for some reason. (Labor will win both seats, obviously.)
8.3% swing to Labor in Sanderson. Most Darwin seats swung at least a little bit to CLP, so that’s well and truly the outlier. I guess everyone loves Kate Worden. Eva Lawler (Drysdale) and Lauren Moss (Casuarina) increased their majority too.
Antony Green has a post up explaining some of the assumptions the ABC computer is making:
https://antonygreen.com.au/northern-territory-election-updates/
“Antony Green says Labor needs 35.5% of preferences from UM and the Fireman to win Fong Lim, do you agree with that assessment Kevin?”
Yes on current figures I get that too. Will change a little with further votes but probably not much.
The release of 2CP counts in Arnhem, Fong Lim and Blain will be the big excitement of today!
Preference counts have been released for Berrimah and Casuarina EVCs in Fong Lim. Monaghan (Labor) is getting a 41.5% preference flow – if that preference flow holds, Labor will win narrowly.
Well, big disappointment at the last Federal election, followed by:
a) A win in Eden-Monaro
b) A win in the Northern Territory
Next appointment: The Qld state election in October…. I can’t wait to cast my vote!
If ScuMo loses that one too, sabres may start to rattle…. 🙂
Kevin Bonham
@kevinbonham
·
12m
Replying to
@kevinbonham
A large booth has been realigned in Blain and the CLP did not get enough of Terry Mills’ preferences there so Labor are now projecting just ahead in that one too. #ntvotes
Kevin Bonham
@kevinbonham
·
5m
Labor could yet get 15 or even 16 seats here as Daly is down to 4 votes. Going very nicely for them so far today. #ntvotes
Que?
Labor is running at around 40% of preferences in both Blain and Arnhem – which would also be enough for them to win both seats by modest margins.
ALP leading by 117 on 2pp in Fong Lim – with only 156 preferences left to allocate. Labor still holding a 95 vote lead in Barkly. That’s enough for majority government.
The numbers look small but then each seat has on average fewer than 6,000 enrolled voters. Turnout seems to be relatively low – about 70-75%?. A margin of 1% means about 45 votes.
Blain is now line ball, with 219 preferences to allocate, and Labor holding on to a 52 vote lead. Plus a few more postals to come as well. It will be very tight, one way or the other.
Labor will win Arnhem. That takes the Labor tally to 14 seats, not counting Blain. Labor will be very disappointed if Mark Turner does not win Blain. He is a local policeman in Palmerston and a very well respected guy. He has polled far better than expected, and his popularity has undoubtedly been a factor in Terry Mills losing.
Its looking a solid Labor victory. The CLP leader Lia Finocchiaro’s speech on Saturday night now looks childish. They didn’t have any inside information that they were going to win more seats and justified not conceding defeat. Antony Green called it correctly as usual. The CLP lost clearly and she simply could not admit it.
Socrates @ #182 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 2:23 pm
She was obviously one of those relentlessly positive people.
See Antony Green: https://antonygreen.com.au/northern-territory-election-updates/
At this point, it is unlikely Labor will lose any of Barkly, Arnhem or Fong Lim, which takes Labor to 14 seats.
After allocation of preferences, Labor is 29 votes ahead in Blain. That will almost certainly be enough, especially given that 2PP postal votes counted so far are in favour of Labor by 87 to 85.
It now seems likely Labor will end up on 15 seats, with Daly (now behind by 38), Brennan (behind by 42) and Namatjira (behind by 24) probably out of reach.
Thanks for the updates, Outsider. 🙂
Antony Green’s just called Fong Lim for Labor, giving them their majority. They’ve just slipped back in front in Namatjira too, with Blain and especially Barkly looking good for Labor too. Quite possible the CLP only ends up with six seats at the end of this, which is a pretty miserable result.
Remarkably, absents have pushed Labor to a surprise 20 vote lead in Namatjira! Could be 16?
Asha Leu @ #187 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 4:52 pm
Lia Finocchiaro will be overjoyed at this result! 😆
+1
Ben Raue’s podcast on the NT results:
http://www.tallyroom.com.au/39898
A very gracious concession speech today from Lia Finocchiaro, given that Fong Lim has been called for Labor. No, just kidding.
She has actually conceded now, though it wasn’t really a speech. Still, seemed fairly gracious to me, all things considered.
At least she didn’t wait a whole week like Tim Nicholls did.
C@tmomma says:
Monday, August 24, 2020 at 5:08 pm
Asha Leu @ #187 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 4:52 pm
Antony Green’s just called Fong Lim for Labor, giving them their majority. They’ve just slipped back in front in Namatjira too, with Blain and especially Barkly looking good for Labor too. Quite possible the CLP only ends up with six seats at the end of this, which is a pretty miserable result.
Lia Finocchiaro will be overjoyed at this result!
_____________________________
Have you discussed the result with the relos ?
Lars Von Trier @ #194 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 6:29 pm
Not funny, LvT. Peter Toyne had to retire from politics in the NT, due to ill health and move back to Victoria with his family. After my husband, his cousin, passed away we speak via my sister-in-law now. I must ask her how he is going.
A longish comment follows, re the 148 Coolalinga pre-polls which William has revealed remain uncounted, and which will almost certainly decide the result in Blain when they get added to the tally some time today.
The early voting centre was inside the Coolalinga shopping centre – which is the last major shopping centre heading out of Darwin (or put another way, the nearest shopping centre to the rural and semi-rural areas to the south of Darwin).
Coolalinga is on the boundary between two semi-rural electorates adjacent to Darwin – Goyder and Nelson – and is also very close to the northern parts of Daly. For the CLP leaning residents in those areas, Coolalinga was the nearest EVC. Votes cast at Coolalinga were 2500 in Goyder, 2000 in Nelson and 400 in Daly.
The 400 Coolalinga votes decided the contest in Daly, with 2 to 1 support for the CLP getting them over the line – but this is not surprising given the semi-rural demographic of Daly residents living near Coolalinga.
The same analysis cannot be applied to people from Blain voting in Coolalinga. There is no particular reason why these votes should follow any different pattern from those cast elsewhere in Blain. It is 10kms from Blain to Coolalinga – Palmerston centre is much closer, with a better range of shops and services. The only difference I can think of is that Coolalinga has a Kmart and Palmerston doesn’t!!
As they say, all politics is local…. The point of the above is that it is unsafe to assume the Coolalinga Blain votes will follow the same pattern as (say) the Coolalinga Daly votes. If anything, my hunch is the Coolalinga Blain votes might slightly favour Labor (the Kmart shopper factor!). No doubt all will be revealed later today.
“At least she didn’t wait a whole week like Tim Nicholls did.”
Yeah I remember that. Nicholls wouldn’t even concede when he would have had to form a minority government that would have had to include a Greens MP. He stated Annastacia Palaszczuk ‘promised no deals’ and she had to let him form a minority government if that was the case. She did promise no deals, but what she meant was she wouldn’t form a minority government with One Nation.
Fortunately as the count progressed the week after the election she won a majority in her own right which got Nicholls and the Courier Mail off her back.
I think you’ll find the Coolalinga Early Voting Centre has been counted as part of the Absents.
Thanks Antony – I had wondered whether that might have happened.
“Territory Alliance leader Terry Mills has lost his seat of Blain, according to the ABC’s election analyst Antony Green.”
Yeah I’ve seen a couple of theories on Territory Alliance’s flop. Terry Mills has said it was the pandemic with voters not willing to look for a new party in uncertain times. Robyn Lambley said she thought there wasn’t enough time to establish themselves and the party was formed too late.
May also be the case Terry Mills bit off more then he could chew and forming a party from scratch can have it’s challenges. Just ask Nick Xenophon and Jacquie Lambie who’s parties flopped in the 2018 state elections of South Australia and Tasmaina previously.
It will be interesting with this pandemic going on whether this will be a warning shot for other minor parties in the state election in Queensland in two months time.
Political Watchman:
If I recall correctly, the only way Nicholls could have taken office was with the support of One Nation, Katter, an independent, *and* the Greens. I’d have loved to know how he intended on bringing that unholy coalition into being.
Meanwhile, Palaszczuk was, at most, a single seat or two shy of a majority, with Berkman (the Greens MP) quickly announcing he’d back Labor. Even on election night, the idea that anyone besides Labor would be forming government was laughable.