Nothing succeeds like secession

A new poll finds a certain amount of support for Western Australia to go it alone, as the Federal Court finds facts in Clive Palmer’s constitutional challenge against the state’s border closures.

The West Australian has a poll today from Painted Dog Research showing 34% out of 837 respondents from the state favour secession for Western Australia. However, the utility of this finding is limited by the report’s failure to offer any insight as to how many of the other 66% were actively opposed and how many uncommitted, if indeed the latter was provided as an option. The poll also finds “close to three-quarters” think the federal government has put the needs of the eastern states ahead of Western Australia during the pandemic. I wouldn’t normally consider such a poll front page news, but it’s past time for a new general discussion thread, so here it is.

There is also the following:

• Since Tuesday’s post from Adrian Beaumont on the extraordinary finding of a Reid Research poll of voting intention in New Zealand, the other regular pollster in the country, Colmar Brunton, has produced a somewhat more modest result: Labour 53%, National 32%, Greens 5%, ACT New Zealand 4.8% and New Zealand First 2%. It also finds Jacinda Ardern with a 54-20 lead over the new National leader, Judith Collins, as preferred prime minister. There’s an interesting discussion on polling in the country, the record of which is apparently very good, on Radio New Zealand’s The Detail program.

• As noted in my popular dedicated post on the subject, elections will be held today for two seats in Tasmania’s Legislative Council. One of these at least, for the Launceston region seat of Rosevears, includes both Liberal and Labor candidates, and might be seen as some sort of barometer for the state’s new-ish Premier, Peter Gutwein, who has been recording exceptionally strong poll ratings amid the COVID-19 crisis. Live coverage of the count will, as ever, commence here at 6pm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,962 comments on “Nothing succeeds like secession”

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  1. Kate, the point is not that I’m down on Labor partisans. It’s that if someone had said what BB said to a woman whose main deal in politics was that they supported the Labor Party, that commenter would have been banned, because the reaction of the board would have made it untenable for me not to. Consequently, it’s only for women who are in this particular box that Poll Bludger provides, as they say, a safe space. All of the women who don’t are gone now.

  2. C@t:

    If you listen to the Town Hall the Lincoln Project did (which sprocket posted the other day), they are all invested in ensuring that people are armed with information needed to vote this year. This will apparently include ads and direct mail to people in key states as well as highlighting what people have to/can do in those states to ensure they can vote.

  3. Speaking of The Greens. It was interesting today, when I was manicuring my Twitter Follower list, to see that Adam Bandt follows my Tweets, even though just about every Greens’ fanboi and fangirl on Twitter has Blocked me. 😀

  4. William Bowesays:
    Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 9:50 pm
    Kate, the point is not that I’m down on Labor partisans. It’s that if someone had said what BB said to a woman whose main deal in politics was that they supported the Labor Party, that commenter would have been banned, because the reaction of the board would have made it untenable for me not to
    ++++++
    Really? I guess it’s open slather on the next Pegasus then.

  5. 😆 It was not the Democrats being shite, it was dem russians. The answer to all failings. A great way to avoid responsibility for your own failings. A bit like the role some Labor peeps here assign to teh Greens .

  6. Cat

    Another simple reason your comment is just stupid. I was for Clinton winning. My problem was I thought she was a poor candidate that would mean a third party like the Greens would have credibility and mean more chance of Trump winning.

    This is what happens when you declare other people’s position as propaganda you get it wrong.

  7. poroti @ #1772 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 6:03 pm

    Recently the US of A claimed them thar Russkies and Chinese have been pinching covid 19 vaccine data from them. Someone commented that it must mean the US thinks the Russians and Chinese are going to beat the US to developing a virus. Well whaddaya know.:lol:
    ……………………………………………
    Russia claims to be ahead of rivals in race to produce Covid vaccine
    Moscow says it will start production next month and mass immunisation by October

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/03/russia-claims-to-be-ahead-of-rivals-in-race-to-produce-covid-vaccine

    OF COURSE, Russia would say that! That’s what they always do. They never cheated their way to medals at the Olympics either. They earned them fair and square. Or, so they say. 🙄

  8. meher baba @ #1649 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 11:56 am

    lizzie. Inevitably Ministers are required to balance competing interests within their portfolios. There is no possible perfect portfolio structure that avoids any such situations. Anyway, you can get helpful synergies as well as policy conflicts. I actually thought MT’s idea of putting climate change and energy together was a creative one and the grouping might well persist under Labor.

    The grouping only makes sense if you have policies that are looking to transition towards clean energy, otherwise they are in complete conflict as has been the case under successive Coalition Governments.

  9. William Bowe @ #1901 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 9:50 pm

    Kate, the point is not that I’m down on Labor partisans. It’s that if someone had said what BB said to a woman whose main deal in politics was that they supported the Labor Party, that commenter would have been banned, because the reaction of the board would have made it untenable for me not to. Consequently, it’s only for women who are in this particular box that Poll Bludger provides, as they say, a safe space. All of the women who don’t are gone now.

    I have re-read this several times now, and the meaning remains elusive. I am not sure why a misogynistic insult should be considered more insulting to a woman who is a labor supporter than to a woman who is a green supporter.

    Are greens considered “fair game” on this board? If so, I guess I can understand why Pegasus decided to leave.

  10. Well I’m glad that John Brogden went on to lead Lifeline. I’m also glad that, when she wasn’t in State parliament anymore, Kristina Kenneally led the Australian Stillbirth Foundation. I’m also glad that former Labor politician, John Della-Bosca, went on to lead Disabilities Australia and former NSW Labor Deputy Premier, John Watkins, went on to head Alzheimers Australia.

    Have airheads like Nicholas and Mr Bowe, who supported Nicholas’ outlandish claim about politicians lives after politics, even stopped to think for one minute that there are plenty of organisations that have massively benefited from the expertise and talent that these people bring to those places? Apparently not. A cheap shot at them will suffice instead.

  11. And I’m really disappointed that no oner seems to give two hoots that boerwar hasn’t turned up for a while. At least his contributions contained original thought. Unlike Pegasus’.

  12. It’s a pretty simple scenario here. Unless you are a Labor supporter you either have to brawl or bend. A bit like a tree in a storm. But PB is still a good place to visit most of the time.

    When PB loses someone like Peg it loses some of its colour and perspective.

  13. It is certainly a shame Pegasus’ usually interesting contributions are no longer around to balance against catmuvva’s vile dribble.

  14. C@tmomma
    Of course the ‘Mercans being the bestest at everything means anyone beating them at anything means the other blighters must be cheating. What a coincidence the accusations from the seppos came out just a few days before the russian announcement. Not that I give more than 50/50 chances of it being true. Anyway carry on in your RW Labor way, blame everything on the Greens rather than looking at yourself.

  15. Nicholas says:
    Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 6:17 pm

    We have to acknowledge that many Labor politicians at all levels of government go on to work for property developers, banks, transport infrastructure firms, and mining companies. In that respect, Labor is not significantly better than the LNP. It is legalized corruption. Cameron Murray’s book Game of Mates is an excellent book that draws on the author’s scholarly research into corruption and rent-seeking in Australia. I recommend that all Poll Bludger centrists read this book from cover to cover, atone for their political naivety, and support genuinely progressive political parties instead of soft neoliberalism.
    —————————–
    Nicholas
    There is nothing wrong with working in those industries and it doesn’t represent corruption anymore than working in social welfare which has a massive budget and interaction between government and the sector. The problem is more around when former minister goes into an area connected to their portfolio or when they go straight from parliament into a lobbying role connected to their portfolio or government. I would be more concerned with what Bruce Billson did than someone going to work in finance or property. Many bankers are more progressive than many on the left give them credit for.

  16. C@t
    Don’t know why you waste your time mucking around with twitter. Meaningless dribble that adds nothing. Scomo’s ordinary Australians don’t bother with it at all.

  17. Did they get advise from Donald Trump to hide information?

    Eddy Jokovich
    @EddyJokovich
    ·
    8h
    Five days for the Commonwealth to find out about COVID outbreak in St Basil’s aged care. Now they don’t want to name where private age care home outbreaks are happening, to limit “reputational damage”. Time for Morrison started working instead of cooking family curries. #AUSPOL

  18. Simon Katich says:
    Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 12:28 pm

    And the Advertiser runs an article by the young Bolt wannabe Caleb Bond on why we shouldnt strengthen restrictions despite the new cases.
    ————————–
    That bloke makes me laugh because he is in his early 20s but tried to look like he is in his 40s.

  19. Briefly
    The Greens are many things but blaming them for the ALP’s problems that could be doubt with by the ALP placing them last on the ballot paper because the same ALP holds office in Queensland and WA with the same Greens playing the same games.

  20. Mexicanbeemer @ #1925 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 10:50 pm

    Simon Katich says:
    Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 12:28 pm

    And the Advertiser runs an article by the young Bolt wannabe Caleb Bond on why we shouldnt strengthen restrictions despite the new cases.
    ————————–
    That bloke makes me laugh because he is in his early 20s but tried to look like he is in his 40s.

    I don’t think he has any particular qualifications which would enable him to speak with any authority on medical matters either.

  21. Taylormade @ #1923 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 10:46 pm

    C@t
    Don’t know why you waste your time mucking around with twitter. Meaningless dribble that adds nothing. Scomo’s ordinary Australians don’t bother with it at all.

    I don’t usually, however it enables me to catch up with the opinions of people I respect who don’t comment here. Also, it allows me to access articles from outlets not covered in the Dawn Patrol. Not to mention that I have been on Twitter since forever. 🙂

  22. poroti @ #1920 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 10:37 pm

    C@tmomma
    Of course the ‘Mercans being the bestest at everything means anyone beating them at anything means the other blighters must be cheating. What a coincidence the accusations from the seppos came out just a few days before the russian announcement. Not that I give more than 50/50 chances of it being true. Anyway carry on in your RW Labor way, blame everything on the Greens rather than looking at yourself.

    Lol. Whatever, poroti. Like you know me better than I know myself. 🙄

    And you carry on being an apologist for the Russians.

  23. C@tmomma @ #1928 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 9:02 pm

    Taylormade @ #1923 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 10:46 pm

    C@t
    Don’t know why you waste your time mucking around with twitter. Meaningless dribble that adds nothing. Scomo’s ordinary Australians don’t bother with it at all.

    I don’t usually, however it enables me to catch up with the opinions of people I respect who don’t comment here. Also, it allows me to access articles from outlets not covered in the Dawn Patrol. Not to mention that I have been on Twitter since forever. 🙂

    Twitter is very much what you make it, if you can curate a diverse and challenging feed it is probably the most brilliant educational tool on the internet, if you just want to wallow in your own pool of conclusions you can (although here is probably a safer space for the really intellectually challenged), and if you want to troll, well stay out of twitter.

  24. Icancu @ #1918 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 10:35 pm

    It is certainly a shame Pegasus’ usually interesting contributions are no longer around to balance against catmuvva’s vile dribble.

    My contributions are Shakespeare compared to your barely coherent but entirely predictable pap.

    Um, and it’s ‘drivel’. 😀

    Though I am speaking to someone who thinks Pegasus’ unoriginal cut and paste was the epitome of this blog’s contributions.

  25. WeWantPaul,
    I do the former, not the latter. I also have a couple of thousand Followers that I don’t like to disappoint. Not large numbers by any stretch but I do spend most of my efforts here, not there.

  26. Wow, this is just crazy:

    Melbourne woman allegedly ‘smashed’ police officer’s head into concrete when told to wear a mask
    During a press conference on Tuesday, Victoria Police Chief Commissioner Shane Patton said a 38-year-old has been charged with nine offences after she allegedly attacked a 26-year-old police officer after being stopped in Frankston for not wearing a face mask. Patton alleged that the woman “smashed the head of the policewoman several times into a concrete area on the ground”.

    A police source told The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald that some of the policewoman’s hair was ripped out during the incident and she was concussed.

    A police spokeswoman said the officer received significant head injuries and was taken to Frankston Hospital for assessment and medical treatment.

    She was recovering at home on Tuesday. — The Age

    Josh Butler
    @JoshButler

    Commissioner Patton says as part of the anti-mask trend, a 38yo woman was approached by police for not wearing a mask in Frankston – says a fight ensued, the woman “smashed the head of the policewoman several times into a concrete area on the ground.”

    VIC police commissioner Shane Patton says 60 of the 161 fines were for not wearing masks

    Patton says “a trend” of “sovereign citizens” who are “baiting” police

    “On at least four occasions, we’ve had to smash the windows of cars and pull people out to provide details”

    Benita Kolovos AAP
    @benitakolovos

    Mr Patton says anti-maskers have been at checkpoints “baiting police, not providing their name and address on at least three or four occasions in the past week. We’ve had to smash the windows of people in cars and pull them out”.

  27. C@tmomma @ #1932 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 9:09 pm

    WeWantPaul,
    I do the former, not the latter. I also have a couple of thousand Followers that I don’t like to disappoint. Not large numbers by any stretch but I do spend most of my efforts here, not there.

    I go there more for what I can learn that what i can share, more listening than telling, but I do like to stick a pin in arrogance when it is appropriate.

  28. I have re-read this several times now, and the meaning remains elusive.

    It’s an admission that the place is run imperfectly. This is why I’m happy to cop criticism that I ought to run a tighter ship from the likes of Mavis, who isn’t a hypocrite about it. But to be constantly hectored by Bushfire Bill, the single greatest beneficary of my deficiencies (give or take Greensborough Growler, to whom all of this equally applies), for failing to ban his personal enemies — seconds before weighing in against cancel culture, such is the scale of his cluelessness and hypocrisy — is more than I can stand.

  29. The Russia v. US discourse above is something that really bothers me about discussions of geopolitics. There’s never any nuance and it always needs to be framed as two sides fighting some sort of light v dark battle (whose hat is whose, is up to the individual making the claim.)

    Not everything is the Russians. Yes, there’s a lot of evidence that Russia was actively trying to stoke discourse online in 2016. But that’s not that strange. Russia is threatened by US strength and will use whatever asymmetrical means it can to undermine that. Not to mention this lazy fallback does ignore more obvious domestic drivers for the far right, as well as arrogantly absolves one of any need of introspection. 2016 was an omnishambles that stemmed from a multitude of things including white supremacy all the way to Democratic Party arrogance.

    That said, Russia is not the rebellious free state resisting the evil empire that it is framed as either. Russia is run by a right wing, nationalistic, autocratic Plutarch who is not so much trying to keep Russia free as he is expanding its power and, by extension, his own. Recently, he had the constitution amended, not just to extend his power but also to put more theocratic policies in place and to rewrite Russian history to claim that Putin (and great past Russian leaders of the past) have a divine lineage from Christ himself.

    There is no Manichean battle of good v. evil on the global stage, just competing interests.

  30. https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/08/01/nothing-succeeds-like-secession/comment-page-39/#comment-3457752

    Nobody is saying politicians should not have any jobs after politics. Nobody is criticising politicians for taking up not for profit organisations with good causes like those you listed and claiming otherwise is a ludicrous non-sequitur. If all politicians who worked after politics did jobs like those you listed, the world would be a better place.

    It is the former politicians who become lobbyists for well funded corporate causes and recipients of other cushy and high paying corporate jobs that are on the receiving end of well justified criticism, given the potential for such employment to be a reward for backing the sort of policies these causes want when in public office.

  31. Player One – I have re-read this several times now, and the meaning remains elusive. I am not sure why a misogynistic insult should be considered more insulting to a woman who is a labor supporter than to a woman who is a green supporter.

    i find that remark somewhat ambiguous, too, but i read its criticism as directed at the board, not greens supporters or Pegasus.

    to me, Bowe, W. is contending that, (1) were a labor woman to be treated like Pegasus was treated, the board would have erupted in such an uproar that he, Bowe, W., would have been well nigh driven by the force of continuous din to ban the perp in order to restore peace.

    that didn’t happen in the case of Pegasus, and therefore, i think, he, Bowe, W., contends (2) the board is in the wrong, and somewhat hypocritical in its commitment to making & keeping the board a safe place for women of all party persuasions. -regards, a.v.

  32. Rational Leftist @ #1936 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 9:29 pm

    The Russia v. US discourse above is something that really bothers me about discussions of geopolitics. There’s never any nuance and it always needs to be framed as two sides fighting some sort of light v dark battle (whose hat is whose, is up to the individual making the claim.)

    Not everything is the Russians. Yes, there’s a lot of evidence that Russia was actively trying to stoke discourse online in 2016. But that’s not that strange. Russia is threatened by US strength and will use whatever asymmetrical means it can to undermine that. Not to mention this lazy fallback does ignore more obvious domestic drivers for the far right, as well as arrogantly absolves one of any need of introspection. 2016 was an omnishambles that stemmed from a multitude of things including white supremacy all the way to Democratic Party arrogance.

    That said, Russia is not the rebellious free state resisting the evil empire that it is framed as either. Russia is run by a right wing, nationalistic, autocratic Plutarch who is not so much trying to keep Russia free as he is expanding its power and, by extension, his own. Recently, he had the constitution amended, not just to extend his power but also to put more theocratic policies in place and to rewrite Russian history to claim that Putin (and great past Russian leaders of the past) have a divine lineage from Christ himself.

    There is no Manichean battle of good v. evil on the global stage, just competing interests.

    I would submit that Russia, because of its history, and particularly recent history brings a lot more animus and danger to the global community, notwithstanding that it is a fading power, than China, a terrifying rising power, brings to the same stage.

    So if you live in Taiwan should you be more afraid of China? 100%
    If you live in a middle to low power led by a religious fanatic of incredibly limited ability, who failed and marketing and adores Trump as a leader, and who is willing to put Australian right in the cross hairs of chinese fury. Yes of course that kind of leadership is begging to have the country carpet bombed back to the stone age.

    If you live in a sensible well led, balance country not tainted by morons like Morrison and Murdoch, well then China is probably as good a global superpower as you could hope for right now.

  33. TomTF&B
    Nicholas did mention people going to into finance or property development were not being true progressives and many on the left do moan about former ALP politicians working in fields they don’t approve off.

    “many Labor politicians at all levels of government go on to work for property developers, banks, transport infrastructure firms, and mining companies. In that respect, Labor is not significantly better than the LNP. It is legalized corruption.”

  34. Rational Leftist @ #1936 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 11:29 pm

    Yes, there’s a lot of evidence that Russia was actively trying to stoke discourse online in 2016. But that’s not that strange.

    Yeah, nah. For what happened in 2016 to not be strange, you’d have to be able to point to at least one other election year where one side’s candidate publicly called upon Russia to steal and publish private information from the other side, and then Russia actually went and did that thing (and coordinated the timing so as to maximize the political damage, for good measure).

    Tensions between adversarial powers is one thing. 2016 is in a separate ballpark from that.

  35. https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/08/01/nothing-succeeds-like-secession/comment-page-39/#comment-3457780

    I was replying to the comment (to which I hyperlinked) claiming that the criticism was directed at a list of politicians who moved to good causes (Lifeline, Stillbirth, Diabetes and Alzheimer`s), not you comment in reply to criticism of politicians going into finance, property development etc..

    It is not just politicians going into industries that used to be their portfolio that is problematic. Through the cabinet, party room and committee systems politicians have a wide range of during political career political influence and post political career connections and influence, which makes regulated industries in general a problem for them to work in.

  36. William

    It’s an admission that the place is run imperfectly.

    Not at all from my perspective.

    You let us range wide and free, and as another poster commented tonight, this produces an excellent quality blog, where people can express their views from many perspectives.

    @Kate – please keep posting. I enjoy your posts.

    @Pegasus – if you are lurking, please do come back and post. I have locked horns with you a few times, but always find your posts worth reading.

    @Everyone – when William talks about the problems of ad hominem posts on this blog, and the lack of toleration of different views, I think about his perspective. While personally I prefer political evolution rather than revolution, I can actually see the pile-up of comments on anyone who goes for throwing the political dice in the air and seeing where it lands (i.e both the ALP and Coalition are as bad as each other, vote for anyone else).

    Many of us will advance arguments to support our position that this is not the case – and at the moment I have seen no argument that suggests to me that ALP / Coalition is same – same, even if neither his perfect.

    However, there are definitely many posts that call posters with different views “stupid” or “disingenuous”.

    Today I have had to deal with more problems in my professional world where junior women have been harassed to the point of driving them out of careers.

    While this seems different to the give and take on a blog, we should be very careful not to use ad hominem arguments against other posters.

    William has our email addresses, and can generally guess who is male and who is female. If William says that non-Labor women feel they are being driven off the blog, we need to take this seriously. It does not mean that these women are right to take offence at every poster who disagrees with them. But it does add up to a picture where women with different views individually feel this is not a safe space to air their views.

    As participants in this blog, a bit less argy-bargy, as funny as that can occasionally seem, may make all the different.

    A for instance: Nath, today you make one of your posts that had me laughing so much I spilt my boutique artisan beer on my keyboard.

    Of course, in the next post someone took offence.

    I still think Nath’s post was fine, and in this case no harm was done, and even the dissenter was not ad hominem. So, OK by me.

    On the other hand, last night I saw the “Polack” comment, and though perhaps I should say something. The fact that it was directed at a woman was perhaps relevant?

    My first though was to say that if you last name ends in “-ian” you are most likely to be Armenian.

    But of course as pointed out today, Anna P in QLD is of Polish background, so weird confusion there.

    Random thought of someone working late, and now winding down.

  37. Thank you, AV — I could not (indeed, did not) have said it better myself. I’d also like to put in a good word for Historyintime, who described my general attitude to moderation very well. I suspect he may have some practical experience in the field.

  38. Tim Smith will no doubt be gratified to have reached a high point in his life by being featured in BBC world news, presenting a picture of angry Melburnians who have been betrayed by their government. Confined to their homes, facing unemployment, they are now committing suicide.
    Well done Tim

  39. I’ve been a mod on boards that had long-time regulars who made a habit of biting the noobs, or anyone outside their clique. It’s not an easy job. No regulars means no forum culture, but if a group of people are allowed to turn it into their private playpen for years, it becomes very difficult to fix. When mods throw up their hands and go “Y’know what? I’m not getting paid for this. I’m out.” That’s when you know things have turned toxic. Been there, done that. I’m glad I don’t have a B7 key on here.

    So, about that NT election in a coupla weeks’ time…

  40. TomTF&B
    It isn’t easy to restrict a politician’s post career options because government has a relationship with practically every industry and line of work. Politics would be the only industry where people complain about networking because that is the main way many people find employment.

  41. Beemer

    I like Labor’s donation reforms.
    I have no problem with politicians going onto boards and the like.

    Eg. Anna Bligh going to banking.

    I do see donation reform as being very necessary to protect everyone’s interest including bankers.
    We don’t have to throw away the skills and experience politicians gain. We do need to ensure those skills and experience are not suborned for corporate interest above that of society’s interest.

    Easy to say. A lot harder to do. However if politicians want trust it’s something they are going to have to deal with.

    That will mean restricting opportunities straight after leaving politics. Our problem is worse because what rules we do have are fluted with impunity as Chris Pine was accused of doing.

    ——————————————————————————
    An interesting discussion. Andrew Yang and Anand Giridharadas

    https://yangspeaks.com/

    Edit: Sorry language warning. Contains swear words.

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