Nothing succeeds like secession

A new poll finds a certain amount of support for Western Australia to go it alone, as the Federal Court finds facts in Clive Palmer’s constitutional challenge against the state’s border closures.

The West Australian has a poll today from Painted Dog Research showing 34% out of 837 respondents from the state favour secession for Western Australia. However, the utility of this finding is limited by the report’s failure to offer any insight as to how many of the other 66% were actively opposed and how many uncommitted, if indeed the latter was provided as an option. The poll also finds “close to three-quarters” think the federal government has put the needs of the eastern states ahead of Western Australia during the pandemic. I wouldn’t normally consider such a poll front page news, but it’s past time for a new general discussion thread, so here it is.

There is also the following:

• Since Tuesday’s post from Adrian Beaumont on the extraordinary finding of a Reid Research poll of voting intention in New Zealand, the other regular pollster in the country, Colmar Brunton, has produced a somewhat more modest result: Labour 53%, National 32%, Greens 5%, ACT New Zealand 4.8% and New Zealand First 2%. It also finds Jacinda Ardern with a 54-20 lead over the new National leader, Judith Collins, as preferred prime minister. There’s an interesting discussion on polling in the country, the record of which is apparently very good, on Radio New Zealand’s The Detail program.

• As noted in my popular dedicated post on the subject, elections will be held today for two seats in Tasmania’s Legislative Council. One of these at least, for the Launceston region seat of Rosevears, includes both Liberal and Labor candidates, and might be seen as some sort of barometer for the state’s new-ish Premier, Peter Gutwein, who has been recording exceptionally strong poll ratings amid the COVID-19 crisis. Live coverage of the count will, as ever, commence here at 6pm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,962 comments on “Nothing succeeds like secession”

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  1. I believe Pegasus will return. She normally departs (often noisily) when parliament is not sitting or elections are not imminent, but returns when these things resume.

  3. FredNK

    Good try at deflecting from my comment.

    It still stands. With more credibility than your the Greens are irrelevant.
    So are Central Alliance so are Labor they are not the government Edit: According to your logic

  7. FredNK

    I just called out your deflection and you don’t like it.

    The solution Labor The Greens etc have suggested is clear.

    Political donation reform and things like a Federal ICAC.

    According to you that’s the Greens being irrelevant.

  8. You should let go of that cancel culture rhetoric. It’s used against climate change experts Black Lives Matter activists Gay rights activists etc by the likes of Ben Shapiro and Alex Jones.

    A classic Cancel Culture post: don’t use forms of words that other people you’ve either never heard of or taken any notice of have used about Cancel Culture, because then the Cancel Culture is going to turn up and accuse you of murdering black people and gay bashing.

    I have never murdered anyone or suggested it (I leave that to Nath, who has still not been called “a thug” by the Management here), and am not homophobic in the slightest.

    But use certain words that certain other people in other countries thousands of kilometres away use and the usual suspects are ready with their Dymos to stick labels on you.

    Policing other people for their thoughts or choice of words never worked Guytaur, and never will. You might think it does, but you’d be wrong. You only get Trump as a result.

  10. I know one or two ex-MPs from WA Labor. They haven’t gone to work in the sectors mentioned by N. I know some others have…in banks, media and gaming. It’s not a common trajectory for most Labor politicians, though N would have us think otherwise.

    I know staffers from both sides who get into the lobbying caper. Formal lobbying is a thing …an alternative to informal/unregistered lobbying, which was more clandestine and more easily corrupted.

    I think one of the factors in this has been the demolition of the public service. This has led to the proliferation of consultants and policy mercenaries. Government has been out-sourced.

    In this respect, it’s probably a good thing that Labor-identifying figures work as consultants. I know at least two Green-identifying consultants working in environmental, agriculture and digital policy too.

    N is trying to moralise about Labor in order to advance a pop-left critique. For the pops, Labor will never be good enough. They will be accused by the pops of something/anything in order to justify their own political self-gratification and sense of superiority.

    This is just another way of campaigning for the Right….as if too much is never enough. Personally, I say Fuck The Greenists. They are just another anti-Labor gizmo…one of many.

  16. My objection is that William uses ‘Labor partisans’ in a disparaging way – some of us support Labor and use an increasingly rare forum to do so. I rarely post here now having been on the receiving end of William’s ire (and also Pegasus’s when I once attempted to support her and was misinterpreted and maligned).

    I’ll still regularly contribute an admittedly very small amount to this blog as I value it’s existence – but we may have to accept that the boss plays favourites and adapt accordingly.

  17. FredNK.

    I have not disputed your suggestion to listen to the interview is a good thing. I have only pointed out the logic of your Greens are irrelevant argument.

    A thing worth doing as you pollute the blog with your propaganda that an idea is bad purely because the Greens support a policy position.

  18. From the Washington Post. I wasn’t aware Brisbane was a coronavirus hotspot.

    Australia shut down one of its most famous national parks on Monday after the local indigenous community formed a blockade to keep out tourists.

    Central Australia’s Uluru-Kata Tjuta National Park, home to the famed sandstone rock formation known as Uluru, borders the remote Aboriginal community of Mutitjulu. On Monday, a plane carrying about 40 people from the coronavirus hot spot of Brisbane landed at the local airport, prompting fears that the visitors could spread the virus to an already at-risk population. Members of the Mutitjulu community quickly blocked off the park’s entrance with cars and trucks, saying they wanted the airport shut down and the travelers tested for covid-19.

    “No tourists are getting through,” Glenn Irvine, the Mutitjulu community’s general manager, told the Australian Broadcasting Corp.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/08/04/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_coronavirus-luf-1230am%3Aprime-time%2Fpromo#link-NCIB53QISNGSREUHLSVZMTOK3Y


  21. guytaur says:
    …
    A thing worth doing as you pollute the blog with your propaganda that an idea is bad purely because the Greens support a policy position

    That slightly misrepresent my position. The Greens destroy any policy position by supporting it, would be a better way to put my position.

    The unfortunate situation is the Greens pick policy positions to wedge Labor, unfortunately the key word is wedge. They must be policy positions to the left of labor as the Liberals take position to the right.

  22. Briefly, not every Labor and LNP politician goes on to work for the banks, the mining companies, the property developers etc – that wasn’t the claim. It is that a very large number of them do. It isn’t just an LNP thing. The ALP are up to their necks in this disgusting behaviour as well. And make no mistake: this is corruption. The fact that it is legal does not make it any less corrosive to democracy and harmful to the public.

    You support a political party that is riddled with corruption. You have the hide to present this as a pragmatic choice. It is actually self-defeating. It perpetuates all of the systemic and structural problems in our society. It is absolutely the least pragmatic thing you could do if your goal is to make things better for the public.

  25. FredNK

    Your propaganda misrepresents the Greens. Your propaganda comes from the same place as Briefly though not as delusional it gets close though.

    Try this. The Greens have ideas. Sometimes Labor even votes for them. Thus the Greens are relevant.

    End of story

  26. Guytaur,

    You delivered Trump to the world. Thanks for nothing.

    You may not realise it but you are Trump’s greatest asset.

    I don’t believe you really think I’m in favour of killing black people in custody, or that I hate homosexuals. Or that I’m racist, for that matter.

    But you make these kinds of insinuations and accusations because you believe you can wound by making them, insult others, or shame them into behaving as you do.

    Enter Trump: the champion of those who’ve had a gutful of being judged for everything they do or believe, or might believe. There’s no pity in you. Only judgement and finger-pointing. You will only anger others by doing it, so my guess is that it’s how you get your kicks.

    Trump’s a fraud of course, but he gives voice to those not articulate or connected enough to be heard.

    You will NEVER change someone’s opinion of themselves by labelling them. All they do is look for a voice, then allow themselves to be led even further towards perdition.

  28. For what it is worth I think William shows a lot of support to Labor people on this blog.

    Basically I think William tries to be as neutral as humanly possible but is not going to be a robotic algorithm about it. For that you can go to Youtube or FaceBook.

    Sorry William I try not to comment on your role but I felt I had to make an exception.

  29. BB

    You delivered Trump to the world. Thanks for nothing.

    Well done in adopting the hard right tactic of shaming people for having ideas and wanting to discuss politics. You will no doubt enjoy Morrison’s authoritarian government


  30. guytaur says:
    ….
    Try this. The Greens have ideas. Sometimes Labor even votes for them. Thus the Greens are relevant.

    That well describes what a think does. The Greens are involved in politics, you need to look at their affect on politics and what they do to remain part of the game. They wedge the Labor party. That is the important bit, not that ideas go to the Greens to die.

  31. Non says:
    Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 8:44 pm
    “I know one or two ex-MPs from WA Labor. They haven’t gone to work in the sectors mentioned by N. I know some others have…in banks, media and gaming. It’s not a common trajectory for most Labor politicians,”

    Alan Carpenter – ALP Premier, straight into Woodside Government Relations. Doubled his salary I believe. No criticism from me.

  32. FredNK

    No. Labor wedges Labor. Not the Greens.
    Be like the LNP and lose the conscience and bye bye wedge.
    Or act on the voice telling you defending human rights is a good thing. Acting on science is a good thing. Etc. bye bye wedge.

    That’s entirely up to Labor

  34. FS

    Ahhh. Sanctimonious. The Labor cry before they adopt a Greens policy.

    That’s your conscience speaking.

    Edit: A reminder. Labor supports political donations reform. It also supports a Federal ICAC. On donations Labor is better than the Greens as we have seen in Queensland with the reform put in place. Actual results. It may even limit the damage Palmer can do. Just in case you thought that was a Green view.

  35. Scott says:
    Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 7:28 pm

    “Yes or no it was incompetence of Morrison , federal chief/deputy health officials and the libs/nats corrupt foreign media propaganda unit , in playing partisan politics over the health of the citizens”

    I’d say no but I don’t really care. There’s no vaccine and the sooner it’s worked its way through the community the better so I’m not critical of any of the Governments or Health Services who think that they are doing the right thing to the best of their ability but a little bemused by some of the illogical decisions.

  36. Some interesting primary races today in the US. In Kansas, there are fears that if a Trumpist wins the primary for the Republicans, it could imperil a Senate seat this year.

    Kansas has not sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since the 1930s. But for months, Republicans in Washington and in the state have feared that if Mr. Kobach wins the party’s Senate primary, a traditionally safe seat will be endangered — and so will the Senate majority.

    Mr. Kobach, the former Kansas secretary of state, is an incendiary figure in state politics, known for his hard-line views on immigration and voting rights, and his 2018 loss in the governor’s race to Laura Kelly, a Democrat.

    Top Senate Republicans, long wary of Mr. Kobach and his 2018 performance, have pleaded with Mr. Trump to endorse Representative Roger Marshall, whom they see as the strongest general election candidate in a crowded field. But the president has remained on the sidelines, stoking tensions between Senate Republicans and the White House.

    The winner of Tuesday’s primary is expected to face Barbara Bollier, a state senator who was until recently a Republican herself.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/04/us/elections/primary-election-michigan-arizona-kansas.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

  37. You delivered Trump to the world. Thanks for nothing.

    Exactly. Russian strategy, according to the intelligence: encourage votes for 3rd party candidates *cough* Jill Stein candidate for the US Greens. It worked.

  38. ‘fess,
    As you would probably know, the Dems have been running ads in Kansas against Kris Kobach’s competitor, so that Kris Kobach will win the Primary…and then lose the Senate election in November. 🙂

  40. Cat

    Australia is not the United States. Except for openly declared US citizens we don’t vote there.

    Your comment is exactly the propaganda technique that Bannon used to get Trump elected. First rule facts don’t matter.

  41. C@t:

    I didn’t know that. Hopefully it doesn’t backfire as these things often do for Democrats.

    Did you listen to today’s Bulwark podcast? I though the discussion about Trump’s chances was on the money:

    – voter suppression (first and foremost) as the only option left now
    – if that fails, a mea culpa (would love to see THAT!)

  43. Nicholas, you twit, you want to know what corruption is!?! It’s a betrayal of your principles. A betrayal of the principles you built a political party on. The principles Bob Brown betrayed when he campaigned against a Wind Farm being built in Tasmania near where he lived, using spurious reasoning that was entirely convenient to his self-interest. There is nothing more corrupt than a corruption of the soul. That is the corruption of his moral compass that outdoes just about any other sort.

    But then, you would pay fealty to a party founded by a man like that as you have no qualms believing the self-interested, attention-seeking claims of a grifter, Tara Reade.

  44. ”It’s often the richest people who are most outraged and discombobulated by financial penalties. Because they love money so much.”

    Make them work off their fine in community service at minimum wage.

  45. White male victimhood (as demonstrated in BB’s whiny spray) contributed way more to making Trump’s rhetoric acceptable and palatable in 2016, than somebody saying they like Richard Di Natale’s policies ever did.

  46. C@t, there is a theory that open primaries work because people from other parties won’t try to manipulate the process – scared to vote in what they think are unelectable candidates just in case they get elected.

  47. ‘fess,
    Yes, I listen to the latest Bulwark podcast first thing in the morning. Mitt Romney’s former campaign manager was a revelation. Very astute. Not good enough to get Mitt ‘Corporations are people too, my friend’ Romney over the line though.

    What scared me the most was the scenario of the confiscated ballot boxes in Orlando, Florida. Though I hope, now that it has been put out there people will be on the look out for it. I just don’t want Trump to steal the election. I’m only just getting over 2000! 😆

  48. Cat

    Maybe you will return to being more reasonable when Labor works out how to attack Morrison.

    I am not one for leadership speculation. However Albanese has to get a redline.

    My advice fwiw go full on union position as outlined by Sally McManus.

    Show some spine. That does not go as far as I would like Labor to do. However at least it would be something.

    I can just imagine what Turnbull Fraser Howard etc would have said if Labor suspended parliament in the middle of a pandemic to avoid scrutiny.

  49. C@t, there is a theory that open primaries work because people from other parties won’t try to manipulate the process – scared to vote in what they think are unelectable candidates just in case they get elected.

    I don’t know how true that is but there’s logic there. Look at how many people thought Tony Abbott or Donald Trump were dream opponents that would ensure a free win – and look how both those instances turned out.

  50. Simon Katich @ #1897 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 9:44 pm

    C@t, there is a theory that open primaries work because people from other parties won’t try to manipulate the process – scared to vote in what they think are unelectable candidates just in case they get elected.

    That’s true. However, in this instance, Kris Kobach was pumping up his own tyres as well. Will that have an effect on the Republican Primary electors’ considerations? Will they be alive to the Democrats’ asymmetrical warfare? We’ll see.

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