Polls: federal Morgan, YouGov on COVID-19, WA miscellany

Morgan finds the federal Coalition keeping its nose in front; YouGov records a thumbs-up for COVID-19 restrictions; and some striking (if somewhat dated) measures of Mark McGowan’s ascendancy in the west.

Three bits of polling news from around the place, including some rare intelligence from Western Australia, which has still only had one public poll of voting intention in the three-and-a-half years since the 2017 election:

• Roy Morgan made one of its occasional random drops of the federal voting intention polling it conducts weekly, crediting the Coalition with a lead of 51.5-48.5, out from 50.5-49.5 when it last published figures a month ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 43.5%, Labor is down one to 33.5%, the Greens are up half to 11.0% and One Nation is down 1.5% to 2.5%. Also included are state two-party breakdowns with the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 in New South Wales, 58-42 in Queensland, 53.5-46.5 in Western Australia and 53-47 in South Australia, and Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in Victoria and 58-42 in Tasmania. The poll was conducted online and by phone from a sample of 2589 respondents over the weekends of July 11-12 and July 18-19.

• Today’s News Corp tabloids ($) have results of a national YouGov survey of 2307 respondents concerning COVID-19, of which the most interesting finding is that only 6% consider current restrictions too tough, compared with 33% for too lenient and 60% for about right. Despite variable national experience of COVID-19 at the present time, results were fairly consistent across the states, with Victoria only slightly outperforming the national “too tough” response at 11%. The poll was conducted from July 15-20.

• The West Australian reported that polling conducted for “a prominent business group” by Utting Research, which has conducted much of Labor’s internal polling over the years, producing the remarkable finding that Mark McGowan’s state Labor government held a 66-34 lead. The poll was conducted back in May, but there is little reason to think the McGowan balloon would have burst since then. The poll recorded approval ratings of 86% for Mark McGowan, 64% for Scott Morrison but only 25% for state Liberal leader Liza Harvey, though the latter would have a much higher uncommitted rating.

• Staying on the subject of WA polling that’s perhaps not as fresh as it might be, Painted Dog Research published leadership ratings early last month that escaped this site’s notice at the time. These showed Mark McGowan with a satisfaction rating of 87% (including 63% very satisfied) with only 4% dissatisfied (2% very dissatisfied); Scott Morrison on 67% satisfied (33% very) and 19% dissatisfied (7% very); Anthony Albanese on 27% satisfied (7% very) and 29% unsatisfied (12% very); and Liza Harvey on 19% satisfied (4% very) and 37% dissatisfied (17% very) (UPDATE: For what it’s worth, this is metropolitan only). The poll was conducted June 5-7 from a sample of 800. The West Australian reported at the time that it understood Labor internal polling showed similar results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,359 comments on “Polls: federal Morgan, YouGov on COVID-19, WA miscellany”

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  1. poroti

    It’s only fair Hunt will not hear a word of criticism for the staff in Aged Care. They are working in the system he created. The blame stops with him.

    Unfortunately he also will not hear a word of criticism of himself either.

  2. The trouble with coal fired power plants is they are so unreliable. As they age, they become more unreliable and inefficient.

    Liddell is never run more at more than 80% because of fears of catastrophic breakdown.

    Loy Yang A broke down 29 times at the start of 2018. In 2019 it totally failed and needed 5 months to repair.

    These outages also need backup and this is often provided by gas peakers, the same gas peakers that will be used for renewables.

  3. Ouch…….

    Richard Willingham’s Tweets

    Richard Willingham
    An emotional
    says he “won’t hear a word against them” after
    said he wouldn’t want his mum in a Victorian aged care home.

    minister Hunt says his father spent time in an aged care home and was treated well.

    Richard Willingham
    says he wouldn’t want his mum to live in some of the aged care centres in Victorian


  4. Sorry to say that protesters and Govts are still naive to how aggressive this virus is.

    Victoria should be a lesson to all Australians. Take this thing seriously !!!

  5. Did anyone notice this updated bit of reporting of the Essential poll in the guardian?

    “As well as charting the darkening mood on the public health crisis, the latest poll also publishes the first primary and two-party-preferred results on the major parties since the last federal election. Guardian Australia suspended reporting these results after the 2019 election because both the polls, and the way the polls were reported, were not giving people a reliable picture of the likely election result.

    In future, we will report these results on a quarterly basis, and we will express the metric as two party-preferred “plus”, which highlights the proportion of undecided voters, giving people a more accurate read on the limits of any prediction. At the moment, Labor has the support of 47% of respondents to the Coalition’s 45%, with 8% undecided.”

  6. Lizzie

    Yep. I haven’t checked back over comments last few hours, but did anyone volunteer cost of placement in an aged care facility?

  7. lizzie, Victoria

    Could you imagine what would happen to that aged care home’s accreditation and funding if they did not take excellent care of the Health Minister’s father?

  8. Victoria

    No. I once investigated how much to get into a residential facility and from memory it cost as much as my house.

  9. Can’t believe Daniel Andrews would direct the FWC to refuse paid pandemic leave to aged care workers this past April.

    RESIGN !!!

  10. My dad was in an average aged care facility a few years ago and was treated very well.

    We sold his unit for an accommodation bond (which we got back) and it cost most of his pension for daily care fees.

    A good system (which I was already familiar with due to working in Government).

  11. Victoria @ #1256 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 3:10 pm


    Yep. I haven’t checked back over comments last few hours, but did anyone volunteer cost of placement in an aged care facility?

    Depends very much on circumstances.

    My wife and I had our own home and essentially bugger all apart from pension and carer so that the cost of placement was just finding a place.

    Others with different financial ability would have to pay a bond or other other means. Quite complex. Some would wind up in straightened circumstances. some 90% of pension would go to the Aged Care plus cost of medication and incidentals. The bond could be hundreds of thousands. My nephew looking for placement for his mother thought he might end up living in a tent. The lady sadly died and the requirement became null.

    Good luck with your research.😇

    P.S. I have a hight regard for most of the Aged Care staff although some (as we know) are the pits.

  12. I think the real gold mine in aged care is where the resident ‘buys’ the unit. When they leave, the corporation have the rights to sell the unit. Some contracts stipulate the resident, or, family of the resident gets 75% of what the resident paid for the unit originally. The the corporation keeps the rest.

    So if the unit has doubled in price, the corporation gets 125% of the sale price.

  13. sprocket_ @ #1136 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 12:10 pm

    It begs the question ‘why is aged care funded and regulated by bureaucrats in Canberra?’

    Clearly the people on the ground, ie the states and their agencies, should have delivery and oversight responsibilities.

    Because Section 51 (xxxiiiA) of the Constitution says:
    the provision of maternity allowances, widows’ pensions, child endowment, unemployment, pharmaceutical, sickness and hospital benefits, medical and dental services (but not so as to authorize any form of civil conscription), benefits to students and family allowances;

  14. Hunt is a nasty little man who in my opinion is using the health portfolio to soften his image for a future leadership tilt.

    I think Julie Banks labelled him as a co-conspirator with Abbott and Dutton during the muppet show.

  15. Interesting events:

    * Aged care situation in Victoria going pear shaped and people starting to realise it’s the Commonwealth’s fault
    * Morrison rushed back to Canberra to take charge
    * Dutton’s head pops over the parapet announcing he’s going to keep a convicted terrorist inside after his sentence ends

    Wonder what’s happening behind the scenes?

  16. ajm

    What is going on behind the scenes.

    Let me think. the media operations team for former child actor,Morrison,
    are working out a new fresh meme as to how much of a hero Morrison is.

  17. Rex Douglas @ #1262 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 3:35 pm

    Hunt is a nasty little man who in my opinion is using the health portfolio to soften his image for a future leadership tilt.

    I think Julie Banks labelled him as a co-conspirator with Abbott and Dutton during the muppet show.

    ‘to soften his image for a future leadership tilt.’

    Please……I’ve almost shat myself laughing……stop, please…..

  18. Ingrid M
    hearing that prime minister Scott Morrison has announced he is going to his place of work to do his job. Huge if true.

  19. Business wants to eat its cake and have it too:


    They don’t want things to close down, but neither are they willing to make *any* concession to changing their behaviour and practices, and would rather put their employees, customers, and the wider community (everyone really) at risk.

    Yet the Federal government wants to use the virus as an excuse to make Australian jobs even less secure, to give more power to employers to pressure employees into working, and reduce the power of employees to resist that pressure.

  20. Thoughts and prayers, and blame shifting, for the Aged Care sector just isn’t going to cut it Scotty from Marketing.

  21. ajm @ #1271 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 3:45 pm

    Interesting events:

    * Aged care situation in Victoria going pear shaped and people starting to realise it’s the Commonwealth’s fault
    * Morrison rushed back to Canberra to take charge
    * Dutton’s head pops over the parapet announcing he’s going to keep a convicted terrorist inside after his sentence ends

    Wonder what’s happening behind the scenes?

    Did Morrison even tell anyone he was in Queensland for a few days to speak with business up there? I only found out just then. That man certainly keeps his itinery close to his chest.

  22. Penny Wong sticking it to Scrooter and Colebeck on the telly.

    Also on China and whether the US should be allowed to station ICBMs in Australia.

    Intimates that the action wrt China is related to US domestic political campaigning.

    Not that Labor isn’t concerned with China’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea. It is. However, we should continue to engage China, never averring from Australia’s interests and Australian values.

  23. lizzie @ #1283 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 4:28 pm


    It was v. important to watch someone filleting fish for sushimi because they support LNP in every election.

    It’s what the Liberals do so well. Campaigning as Reality TV. 🙄

    I expect we will see Scotty from Marketing turning up at every SME that will let him through the door from now to the next election.

    Whether any jobs have been created or not. He’s Scotty from Marketing and he’s here to help.


  24. I’m surprised Bronny Bishop hasn’t offered to go into the Victorian Aged Care Homes to give all the residents a Kerosene bath to protect them from COVID-19!

  25. Ben Davison

    How can privatising “care” ever be a good idea?

    If you introduce a profit motive to care you’re not caring, you’re profiting.
    The decisions will be about maximising profit.
    Not about providing care.

    It’s simple.
    You don’t privatise care.
    You provide care.
    #auspol #Covid

  26. Chris Bowen
    This is a scandal. First the Morrison Government cuts ECGs under Medicare. Then they “misrepresent” the review which led to the cuts. This is now simple: ⁦
    @GregHuntMP⁩ must reverse these cuts today.

  27. You want to know the most bizarre thing I heard Scott Morrison say today?

    He expressed sympathy for the management of the Aged Care Homes!

    If you want discordant, there you have it on a plate. It’s the management that have dropped the ball!

  28. C@t, I know what you mean. When those sheep were died on the live animal transport boat, Littleproud was so sorry for the……….FARMERs.

  29. To test your mask, try to blow out a candle.

    Norman Swan: And finally I’ve seen online more and more discussion about the candle technique, in other words put on your mask and try and blow out a candle, claiming that if you can blow it out you haven’t got a good enough mask on. Is that valid?

    Raina MacIntyre: Look, I only found out about it recently myself from a dermatologist in Brisbane, Dr Margaret Oziemski, who has designed some cloth masks at a time when she couldn’t get surgical masks in Brisbane, and she sent me this information on the blow test where she took some videos of herself blowing out a candle with different masks. And I think it’s actually a sensible way that people can test out a mask themselves at home. If you use the same force of blowing, it’s quite a good way to check how good your mask is. If you blow out the candle, it’s not that good.


  30. If the rest of the world are willing to send Australians high tech manufactured goods in exchange for our agricultural goods, how is that bad for us?

    If we need to be able to manufacture some of these high tech goods for ourselves, for the sake of resilience, for the sake of autonomy, then that makes sense. But who cares what percentage of our exports are agricultural goods? That metric says nothing about the living standards of our people and the resilience of our nation.

    There is a tendency to fetishise high tech manufacturing for aesthetic reasons. It often gets portrayed as an end in itself – as something that is glamorous and sexy. As something that an advanced nation should be doing.

    Australia has a significant amount of highly advanced manufacturing capability. It is in small batch production lines that don’t get much visibility or attention. The claim that we don’t do high tech manufacturing is a myth.

    The suggestion that an arbitrary percentage of Australian workers ought to be employed in high tech manufacturing JUST BECAUSE is not helpful.

    It is in the nature of high productivity manufacturing that only a small percentage of the workforce will be engaged in it.

    For most of human history it was necessary for 99 percent of a society to work in agriculture. Otherwise people starved. Today only 1 percent of the workers can feed the entire society. That is a good thing. It frees up our people to do other things.

    There was a time when industrial nations had 60 percent of their workers in manufacturing. Now an industrial nation only needs 6 or 7 percent of the workforce to be in manufacturing. Productivity has grown massively.

    Having a services-dominated economy is empowering. It means we have a lot of options about how we deploy our resources. We can choose to prioritise jobs that care for people, care for communities, and care for the environment. We can prioritize the arts, the humanities, the sciences, culture, recreation, civilisation.

    The key thing is to have a monetarily sovereign national government that uses fiscal policy to ensure non-inflationary full employment at all times. And to ensure that there is ecological sustainability, no poverty, and a low degree of inequality of wealth and income.

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