Three bits of polling news from around the place, including some rare intelligence from Western Australia, which has still only had one public poll of voting intention in the three-and-a-half years since the 2017 election:
• Roy Morgan made one of its occasional random drops of the federal voting intention polling it conducts weekly, crediting the Coalition with a lead of 51.5-48.5, out from 50.5-49.5 when it last published figures a month ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 43.5%, Labor is down one to 33.5%, the Greens are up half to 11.0% and One Nation is down 1.5% to 2.5%. Also included are state two-party breakdowns with the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 in New South Wales, 58-42 in Queensland, 53.5-46.5 in Western Australia and 53-47 in South Australia, and Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in Victoria and 58-42 in Tasmania. The poll was conducted online and by phone from a sample of 2589 respondents over the weekends of July 11-12 and July 18-19.
• Today’s News Corp tabloids ($) have results of a national YouGov survey of 2307 respondents concerning COVID-19, of which the most interesting finding is that only 6% consider current restrictions too tough, compared with 33% for too lenient and 60% for about right. Despite variable national experience of COVID-19 at the present time, results were fairly consistent across the states, with Victoria only slightly outperforming the national “too tough” response at 11%. The poll was conducted from July 15-20.
• The West Australian reported that polling conducted for “a prominent business group” by Utting Research, which has conducted much of Labor’s internal polling over the years, producing the remarkable finding that Mark McGowan’s state Labor government held a 66-34 lead. The poll was conducted back in May, but there is little reason to think the McGowan balloon would have burst since then. The poll recorded approval ratings of 86% for Mark McGowan, 64% for Scott Morrison but only 25% for state Liberal leader Liza Harvey, though the latter would have a much higher uncommitted rating.
• Staying on the subject of WA polling that’s perhaps not as fresh as it might be, Painted Dog Research published leadership ratings early last month that escaped this site’s notice at the time. These showed Mark McGowan with a satisfaction rating of 87% (including 63% very satisfied) with only 4% dissatisfied (2% very dissatisfied); Scott Morrison on 67% satisfied (33% very) and 19% dissatisfied (7% very); Anthony Albanese on 27% satisfied (7% very) and 29% unsatisfied (12% very); and Liza Harvey on 19% satisfied (4% very) and 37% dissatisfied (17% very) (UPDATE: For what it’s worth, this is metropolitan only). The poll was conducted June 5-7 from a sample of 800. The West Australian reported at the time that it understood Labor internal polling showed similar results.
FMD
It has only taken them how long to deal with what has always been their responsibility.
I gave Morrison and co the benefit of the doubt. They have failed abysmally
too soon, south
frednk says:
Tuesday, July 28, 2020 at 11:28 am
“It would be better for the industry if ignorant sods such as yourself where kept well away from energy policy.”
I’m all for cheaper power. If you can show me an example of the large scale introduction of wind and solar power that has led to a fall in power prices to less than when coal dominated then I’m all in.
Sprocket
Has Albo said anything. He really needs to step up. He has been more than a little disappointing in this space.
Bucephalus for your reading pleasure a straight down the line article on new build energy costs.
https://theconversation.com/factcheck-qanda-is-coal-still-cheaper-than-renewables-as-an-energy-source-81263
When considering our current unreliable coal fired stations, remember that they are only good for 50 years. The rebuild has to start and we have the Liberals still wondering around chanting coal,coal. coal. If we don’t start building the network needed for the new reality we are stuffed.
Gathering in Domain. Police outnumbering protestors at the moment
AlphaZero
‘The next week will start to show the effects of masks – hopefully it will drive the R value well below 1.
The effect of seeing case numbers drop off will make a lot of Victorian very happy”
Above all, it brings us closer to the day when nath’s pub can re-open. Like most people, I’m worried sick that nath is losing money due to this lockdown.
Spray says:
Tuesday, July 28, 2020 at 11:14 am
“ Still hanging on grimly.”
That looks to me like they have a good grip on the situation. Not one unaccounted for case.
Andrews taking over clinical care in some private aged care settings
Shellbell says:
Tuesday, July 28, 2020 at 11:37 am
“Gathering in Domain. Police outnumbering protestors at the moment”
Start handing out fines to every single one of them.
‘The Commonwealth has asked for assistance, and that’s what they are going to get’
Somewhat different statement from Andrews, to Morrison’s
Bucephalus @ #1107 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 9:46 am
Why would the police fine themselves?
Victorian government employed registered nurses going in.
Morrison did look very shifty in his earlier presser
What really pisses me off is that Greg Hunt asHealth Minister is from Victoria. Even if the Aged Care minister remained in Tasmania for the time being. Surely Hunt were his ears and eyes on the situation here in Victoria.
What the heck. Seriously,
This reminds me of GladysB sending in NSW police to lock down Sydney airport after the Commonwealth failure in waiving through returning passengers. And getting the police to impound the Ruby Princess.
Private aged care facilities are another failed Commonwealth responsibility.
Bucephalus says:
Tuesday, July 28, 2020 at 11:46 am
Shellbell says:
Tuesday, July 28, 2020 at 11:37 am
“Gathering in Domain. Police outnumbering protestors at the moment”
Start handing out fines to every single one of them.
Why?
For Glady to get a good excuse for a breakout she needs crowd.
Fines may discourage further protestors.
“Start handing out fines to every single one of them.”
I agree with you here, Bucephalus. I’m sympathetic to their cause. But FFS, there’s a god-damn pandemic going on.
Sprocket
Will Albo be stepping up to hold Morrison and Co to account?
Andrews repeating ‘..at the request of the Commonwealth government’
Let’s see if the ‘foreign owned corrupt media’ report this accurately
Victoria @ #1098 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 11:36 am
Mundo is tired of all this Albo negativity.
Albo is doing the very best he can.
Scrooter is toast!
Toast I tells ya!!!!!!!
Vic, I don’t know Albo’s strategy – he is sticking to economic impact, employment and so on.
When you have 60% of the nation’s cases (90% since 1 May), 50% of the nation’s deaths (and the last 60+) and 25% of the population, you may as well spread the blame around.
The article linked earlier from Journo in the Age/SMH needs to be retweeted far and wide.
It has been wearing thin for more than a few weeks now.
The Victoria bashing and scapegoating has been appalling
For all the focus on job keeper and job seeker, as I have been repeating ad nauseum.
unless COVID 19 disappears or effective treatment or vaccine, we are operating in a COVID normal space.
The spivs and msm had better get their head around it
frednk says:
Tuesday, July 28, 2020 at 11:37 am
The most important part of the article is in the last two paragraphs:
“As noted by the author, the comparison in this FactCheck does not include the cost of intermittency for renewables. Recognising that no technology runs 100% of the time, there is a backup cost to be added to wind to make it as firm (or stable) as a fuel-based plant. Available costs for such backup, such as large-scale battery or pumped storage, are based on estimates and are the subject of much current study.
New wind with backup could very well be very competitive with new coal, particularly if the cost of emissions is recognised. However, at present, the contention either way is unproven.”
The only relevant comparison between coal fired power and intermittent unreliable wind and solar has to include the cost of backup when they fail- either direct idled capacity backup sitting unused for large amounts of time or a storage system that is large enough to provide a number of days of 100% backup.
sprocket_ @ #1113 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 11:54 am
Let’s see Labor stand up for itself and land one in Scrooter’s cobblers for a change. Bypass the foreign owned corrupt media.
Sprocket
If that is Albo’s strategy, he needs another one pronto.
United States :
Coronavirus Cases:
4,433,410
Deaths:
150,444
– 61,571 new cases and 596 new deaths in the United States
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Perhaps the public can finally be educated properly how private aged care works in Australia.
Victoria 384 new cases, six more deaths.
Victoria
Goodness no. He wouldn’t want to risk having a journo or a random twitterati accuse him of ‘politicizing’ the pandemic 🙁
I’m actually waiting for the apologist Buce to tell us how wonderful aged care policy is and what A good job the commonwealth are doing managing in this space.
This is a huge debacle and disaster for the Federal Aged Care system, it’s leadership and management.
Greg Hunt and Richard Colbeck should resign, and if they don’t, Morrison should sack them for letting this happen. Morrison let Dutton off for the Ruby Princess and airport open doors, but he can’t let this pass.
Sprocket
It definitely is and It has been apparent for weeks now.
What the heck were Hunt, Colebeck and Morrison doing. Considering they bloody cancelled the sitting of parliament.
poroti @ #1125 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 12:03 pm
…he’s better than that….and so on…..
FIIK if this will work
https://imgur.com/a/8WyJxeD
Protest has moved on
Bucephalus
Coals big disadvantage is it can’t be turned off. We have had a network designed to deal with that reality. Pump hydro is not new, it was used to suck up excess overnight energy as was overnight hot water heating.
Solar and winds big disadvantage is that in a well build out system, at times supply can exceed demand, that is why this is an important book:
https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/superpower
It is very unfortunate that ignorant sods on the right have turned this and wearing masks into a cultural war thing, devoid of facts.
Victoria @ #1128 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 12:06 pm
‘What the heck were Hunt, Colebeck and Morrison doing.’
Whatever the bloody hell they like.
It begs the question ‘why is aged care funded and regulated by bureaucrats in Canberra?’
Clearly the people on the ground, ie the states and their agencies, should have delivery and oversight responsibilities.
Bucephalus @ #1080 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 11:02 am
Australia has the most expensive energy prices in the world even though we have the cheapest source. Cost of transmission is a factor, but it is greed that drives our energy market, not the cost of generation.
sprocket_ @ #1127 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 12:04 pm
Just wait till Labor hears about this. There’ll be hell to pay!!
Hell I tells ya!!!!!!!!!
Shellbell says:
Tuesday, July 28, 2020 at 12:08 pm
FIIK if this will work
https://imgur.com/a/8WyJxeD
Protest has moved on
Is there more than 20 protestors?
This will not do, how is Glady going to use that as an excuse.
sprocket_
Bet he does. He’s already spreading the bulldust that aged care homes “were the victims of community transmission” of covid 19. Spreading it and so far 1/10th challenge to that cop out. Will Labor run hard on the responsibility of care homes ? Not likely these days. So a scot free Scrott is almost a certainty.
mundo
We are in the middle of a pandemic. It is not about political point scoring.
If the state opposition here in Victoria especially had not started their campaign in April and May to force the re opening of schools and the economy, perhaps people who actually were unwell took the virus seriously for starters,
For goodness sake they even put advertisements in the newspapers demanding Andrews do this. They have sabotaged at every step of the way.
I’ve had a gutful of these imposters,
sprocket_ @ #1119 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 11:58 am
The trouble seems to be that Albo doesn’t know Albo’s strategy 🙁
Victoria says:
Tuesday, July 28, 2020 at 12:06 pm
Sprocket
It definitely is and It has been apparent for weeks now.
What the heck were Hunt, Colebeck and Morrison doing. Considering they bloody cancelled the sitting of parliament.
—- Your last sentence.
If Labor would just say that, often!
#MessiahAlbo isn’t working.
Albo needs to be preparing for an election that is likely to be barely 12 months away. Morrison will go early if he’s leading in the polls in a years’ time.
” Simultaneous half-Senate and House of Representatives election
As House of Representatives and half-Senate elections are usually held together, the earliest date for a simultaneous election would be Saturday, 7 August 2021.
The latest possible date for a half-Senate election is Saturday 21 May 2022, so the latest possible date for a simultaneous (half-Senate and House of Representatives) election is the same date”
https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection#_Toc29816438
Andrews brings up the Aged Care Royal Commission when asked ‘how has this been allowed to happen?’
frednk says:
Tuesday, July 28, 2020 at 12:08 pm
If I’m ignorant then show me the facts where a system that has a large amount of wind and solar now has a lower cost of power than when coal was the dominant power source.
poroti @ #1137 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 12:11 pm
‘Will Labor run hard on the responsibility of care homes ?’
Will one of my cats transcribe the entire works of Shakespeare?