Three bits of polling news from around the place, including some rare intelligence from Western Australia, which has still only had one public poll of voting intention in the three-and-a-half years since the 2017 election:
• Roy Morgan made one of its occasional random drops of the federal voting intention polling it conducts weekly, crediting the Coalition with a lead of 51.5-48.5, out from 50.5-49.5 when it last published figures a month ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 43.5%, Labor is down one to 33.5%, the Greens are up half to 11.0% and One Nation is down 1.5% to 2.5%. Also included are state two-party breakdowns with the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 in New South Wales, 58-42 in Queensland, 53.5-46.5 in Western Australia and 53-47 in South Australia, and Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in Victoria and 58-42 in Tasmania. The poll was conducted online and by phone from a sample of 2589 respondents over the weekends of July 11-12 and July 18-19.
• Today’s News Corp tabloids ($) have results of a national YouGov survey of 2307 respondents concerning COVID-19, of which the most interesting finding is that only 6% consider current restrictions too tough, compared with 33% for too lenient and 60% for about right. Despite variable national experience of COVID-19 at the present time, results were fairly consistent across the states, with Victoria only slightly outperforming the national “too tough” response at 11%. The poll was conducted from July 15-20.
• The West Australian reported that polling conducted for “a prominent business group” by Utting Research, which has conducted much of Labor’s internal polling over the years, producing the remarkable finding that Mark McGowan’s state Labor government held a 66-34 lead. The poll was conducted back in May, but there is little reason to think the McGowan balloon would have burst since then. The poll recorded approval ratings of 86% for Mark McGowan, 64% for Scott Morrison but only 25% for state Liberal leader Liza Harvey, though the latter would have a much higher uncommitted rating.
• Staying on the subject of WA polling that’s perhaps not as fresh as it might be, Painted Dog Research published leadership ratings early last month that escaped this site’s notice at the time. These showed Mark McGowan with a satisfaction rating of 87% (including 63% very satisfied) with only 4% dissatisfied (2% very dissatisfied); Scott Morrison on 67% satisfied (33% very) and 19% dissatisfied (7% very); Anthony Albanese on 27% satisfied (7% very) and 29% unsatisfied (12% very); and Liza Harvey on 19% satisfied (4% very) and 37% dissatisfied (17% very) (UPDATE: For what it’s worth, this is metropolitan only). The poll was conducted June 5-7 from a sample of 800. The West Australian reported at the time that it understood Labor internal polling showed similar results.
No surprises at McGowan’s popularity, his government’s handling of coronavirus has been outstanding. The national media doesn’t pay much attention to what happens over here, so he also doesn’t have the unnecessary pressure of the federal government trying to play politics with our emergency response in the way they have done with NSW and Victoria.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. It’s Slim Sunday.
Caitlin Fitzsimons reports that the hit to household income and working hours mean childcare bookings are down, with operators worried about school readiness.
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/families-withdraw-from-childcare-as-fees-resume-20200724-p55f8p.html
Greg Jericho says that the Morrison government’s hypocrisy on debt and deficit is galling. Ouch!
https://www.theguardian.com/business/commentisfree/2020/jul/26/the-morrison-governments-hypocrisy-on-debt-and-deficit-is-galling
The Age editorial calls for a strong national voice to get us through this pandemic.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/we-need-a-strong-national-voice-to-get-us-through-this-pandemic-20200725-p55fh8.html
According to Jennifer Duke twice as many women than men will have wage subsidy payments halved from late-September as the federal government’s JobKeeper scheme cuts the $1500-a-fortnight help down to $750 for part-time workers.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/women-losing-out-twice-as-much-from-jobkeeper-2-0-20200724-p55f0t.html
The federal government has launched a specialist aged care response centre to address the surging number of Covid-19 cases spreading through Victorian facilities, as authorities acknowledge measures taken to quash the state’s second wave of the virus have not yet led to lower numbers.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/25/australian-government-sets-up-aged-care-response-centre-to-deal-with-covid-19-surge-in-victorian-facilities
The editorial in the Canberra Times says that now is not the time to cut JobKeeper.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6849215/now-is-the-wrong-time-to-cut-jobseeker/?cs=14258
Jess Irvine explains why it is that both diets and budgets fail.
https://www.smh.com.au/money/planning-and-budgeting/from-purse-strings-to-waistlines-why-budgets-and-diets-both-fail-20200724-p55f0q.html
Anthony Galloway and Eryk Bagshaw tell us that Australia and the United States are set to launch a joint effort to counter disinformation coming from countries like China and Russia.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/us-and-australia-set-to-launch-campaign-to-counter-disinformation-20200724-p55f9f.html
In his weekly column Peter Fitzsimons urges Sydneysiders to embrace the wearing of masks in the event of a second wave there.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/if-the-second-wave-hits-sydney-let-s-cut-to-the-chase-on-masks-20200724-p55f4l.html
Labor is accusing the Morrison government of framing issues with the national child abuse redress scheme as budget “savings”, after the government revealed it expects to spend $610m less on payments to victims over the next two years.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/26/labor-says-coalition-has-botched-child-abuse-redress-scheme-after-610m-budget-shortfall-revealed
Jacqui Maley tells us that we should beware the strenuous efforts to link Black Lives Matter to second wave of virus in Melbourne. It’s also happening in Sydney, she says.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/beware-the-strenuous-efforts-to-link-black-lives-matter-to-second-wave-of-virus-20200724-p55f7h.html
A proposal to boost electric vehicle sales by allowing the unlimited import of second-hand EVs into Australia has had a cool reception from the auto industry, writes Bruce Newton.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/auto/2020/07/25/grey-import-electric-vehicles/
Drought-stricken Australian cotton growers will be millions of dollars short after the collapse of a Chinese importer, leaving thousands of cotton bales stranded.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/baled-out-australian-cotton-growers-shortchanged-by-chinese-firm-s-collapse-20200725-p55fdl.html
Mugged by reality, Trump finds denial won’t stop the COVID pandemic.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/us-news/trump-news/2020/07/25/donald-trump-coronavirus-denial/
Las Vegas is in a ‘world of hurt’ as the pandemic devastates America’s gambling capital.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/las-vegas-in-a-world-of-hurt-as-pandemic-devastates-gambling-capital-20200724-p55ezs.html
Cartoon Corner
Mark David
Alan Moir
Peter Broelman
Dionne Gain
Jim Pavlidis
Reg Lynch
Matt Golding
Glen Le Lievre
From the US
Why is it that everyone except the Morrison government can see the obvious?
Paddy Manning.
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/
Check them out – you won’t regret it.
Edit – or maybe you will.
Interesting polling results, thanks Willam.
With Mark McGowan approaching sainthood in WA, and people stating they believe current restrictions to be fine, if not too lenient, I do wonder whether they induced Palmer and Porter to drop the court case trying to open the borders.
Did SfM tell Porter it was a dangerous case to run?
WA locals did not want the Commonwealth to force McGowan to relax border restrictions, and a win in court could cause a loss of Porter’s seat?
Just speculating, of course.
Thanks BK.
Yes and Labor should really hammer the govt on unemployment and redundant growth rates. It’s clear the govt has no idea what it’s doing, no ideas much less plans to address these issues.
Trump won’t survive exodus of Republicans fleeing him before the election: Rick Wilson
On Saturday’s edition of MSNBC’s “Weekends,” Lincoln Project co-founder Rick Wilson, an outspoken Never Trumper, said the president is on track to lose support from GOP voters — and so is the entire party.
“You know, in 2016 there were a lot of Republicans who said, ‘I just can’t vote for Hillary.’ There had been a 30-year campaign run against her essentially to make her this mythological monster in the eyes of Republicans and they said, ‘I don’t love Trump but I can’t vote for her.’
This is a different landscape now because they’ve seen that Donald Trump is a fundamentally amoral, corrupt, indecent and loathsome human being.”
“Is it the majority of Republicans, no,” added Wilson. “But he can’t afford to lose even 3 percent or 4 percent of the Republican base or he’ll go down this fall … there are a lot of Republicans, and it’s a growing number of Republicans and conservatives and independent-leaning conservatives, who are done. They’ve had enough. They are not going to be a party to this man’s absolute failure and his absolute low — the low characters surrounding him. They’re just done.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/07/trump-wont-survive-exodus-of-republicans-fleeing-him-before-the-election-rick-wilson/
Shades of Howard, federal liberals and state labor seemingly entrenched except for NSW where the Labor corruption legacy sustains the state libs.
The corrupt federal and state liberal/national parties are only saved by an equally corrupt foreign own media propaganda unit for the libs/nats
Unbelievable.
Am I correct in thinking that, based on these state-by-state breakdowns, Labor would be smashed if an election were held now? I know that this supposition is very much hypothetical, but it just doesn’t look good for a supine ALP.
lol
Definite misprint. Should read;
…, with operators worried about profits.
lizzie @ #10 Sunday, July 26th, 2020 – 6:00 am
Morrison, Frydenberg, the Victorian opposition and their fellow travellers should be using their public platforms to reiterate quarantine and self isolation. They should be excoriating this kind of behaviour not blathering on with culture war nonsense or attacking the Vic govt for shutting down the community!
Wow, YouTube is a weird and wonderful place! I stayed up till midnight last night, sewing and doing rolled hems on a new pair of pants for my son, so I just kept clicking on YouTubes and watched them as I sewed. Initially it recommended videos that I would normally watch, but as the night wore on I was offered up stuff like, ‘See how these Instagram Influencers look in real life!’ and ‘Look at this sad story of a 16yo girl in New York who has made up her whole life to be an Instagram Influencer!’ (which included buying Followers and Likes and making up friends she had comment conversations with!), and finally, ‘Who are the 10 most screwed up former American child stars and where are they today?’
Phew! I’m still recovering. I may never fully recover. 😆
Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.
Newcastle 14℃ – Projected top of 16℃
Wind SSE 20 KM/H
Raining now. Maybe 25mm. Localised flooding. ☔☕
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/game-of-mates-being-played-in-covid-19-commission,14132
Stuart @ #11 Sunday, July 26th, 2020 – 8:01 am
Because there will always be some short-sighted numpty who thinks that, in the middle of the first global pandemic in a century and considering how the media have smashed anyone who has not been in lock-step with the federal government, that Labor could succeed more than they already have by being angry ants.
Frankly, the success of Labor is in the numbers above.
Compare the pair.
Federal Opposition compared with Federal Government: 49.5-51.5
WA Liberal Opposition compared with WA Labor Government: 34-66
It’s all there in the numbers indicating federal Labor are holding their own considering the very unusual circumstances.
Not to mention the fact that many of the policies federal Labor have advocated from Opposition have been taken up by the Morrison government.
But no, some one-liner gimcrack is the answer. 🙄
Lars Von Trier @ #8 Sunday, July 26th, 2020 – 7:48 am
The NSW Liberals and Nationals are giving that a good run for its money.
Happy Birthday to Mick Jagger and John Howard.
I have just done some calculations for the strongest Green electorates and I have the top 10:
Melbourne 71.8%
Kooyong 44.3% (Coalition 55.7%)
Wills 41.8% (ALP 58.2%)
Cooper 35.3% (ALP 64.7%)
Grayndler 33.7 (ALP 66.3%)
Macnamara 27.3% (ALP 33.1%, Coalition 39.5%)
Canberra 26.21% (Coalition 30.67%, ALP 43.1%)
Griffith 24.8% (31.8 ALP, Coalition 43.4%)
Higgins 24.3% (26.2 ALP, Coalition 49.5%)
Brisbane 23.7% (25.4 ALP, Coalition 50.89%)
phoenixRED,
I heard about Trump’s ‘Suburban Strategy’ last night. ‘Save the Suburbs’ it’s called and it’s what his stormtroopers on the streets are all about, complete with accompanying dark ads saying that Joe Biden pals around with people who will unleash unrestrained lawlessness and anarchy on suburban streets, in an attempt to get back the suburban voters who have deserted the Republicans.
But it’s Trump’s cure that is worse than the crime! As people are seeing on the streets of Portland, which is scaring them into the arms of the Democrats.
From Dawn Patrol (thank you BK):
”Anthony Galloway and Eryk Bagshaw tell us that Australia and the United States are set to launch a joint effort to counter disinformation coming from countries like China and Russia…”
We need to add Newscorp to the list.
”Happy Birthday to Mick Jagger and John Howard.”
Ages 76 and 81 respectively.
I think it was Charlie Sykes who said (wtte) in 2016 he could play this strategy because he was not in office. Now he’s the govt, all it does is make him look responsible for the unrest.
Re Trump’s ‘Suburban Strategy’ – perhaps Trumps strategy posting his storm troopers around the country runs deerer than just law and order, perhaps have them in place ready to go should he lose in November and refuse to go? Or even to disrupt the voting process itself?
Bucephalus @ #15 Sunday, July 26th, 2020 – 8:30 am
Happy birthday John and Mick.🍹🎂🍹🎂
A different John Howard –
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Howard_(prison_reformer)
Not a lot to do with anything – just interesting to me.
Appropriately for John Howard’s birthday, in Sydney today it is cold and wet with a destructive East Coast Low. 🙂
KayJay – a quinella here 15 deg and 15 mm rain since lunch yesterday. Raining steadily now.
Hey, Buce, surely there’s a sycophantic facebook page you could go to to suck up to the Lying Rodent today? You’ve already polluted this blog enough! Though I guess your opening gambit was to get us talking about Mr Mean and Tricky. And that’s enough from me about the Suburban Solicitor, I feel dirty enough as it is.
#WeatherfromMtTorrens After a clear, chilly morning it’s going to be a beautiful day here for a family birthday celebration for Mrs BK.
So who did he call first?
Club football at noon with heavy rain approaching from the north east
Have a good day, Mr and Mrs BK. 🙂
And the 10 lowest margins for Green seats (Assuming 80% Labor Preferences)
Melbourne -43.7% (COALITION)
Macnamara 5.8% (ALP)
Griffith 7%(ALP)
Higgens 9.4% (COALITION)
Richmond 11.6% (ALP)
Kooyong 11.4% (COALITION)
Brisbane 12% (COALITION)
Ryan 14.3% (COALITON)
Perth 15.2% (ALP)
Wills 16.3%(ALP)
Watched what many critics describe as the greatest war movie in history- the Belorussian resistance movie ‘Come and See’ last night and I have to agree….highly recommended. But not for a date night.
Speers: why are you cutting the payments.
Josh: No, we’re extending them. And he follows with a tumble of statistics for confusion.
Delighted to see that Speers is arguing with Josh.
What a piece of Orwellian Doublespeak from Josh Frydenburg! People on JobKeeper and Job Seeker will not be receiving a cut in their Benefit, it is a ‘Step Down’.
What a load of rubbish! A cut is a cut is a cut!
C@tmomma @ #39 Sunday, July 26th, 2020 – 7:14 am
Well they were never meant to be permanent measures and this is a much more sensible approach than just stopping them outright as was first proposed.
And, apparently, a few women getting jobs again makes it okay with the federal government that the vasy majority are still jobless and will be getting less money from October, and then January!
So, 2 cuts to their Benefits over the next 6 months. What absolute parsimonious scrooges!
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #40 Sunday, July 26th, 2020 – 9:17 am
Living costs aren’t going down, COVID-19 isn’t going away, jobs aren’t coming back in a rush, so why cut now?
This is sickening stuff. Now Scomo’s a saint.
lizzie @ #36 Sunday, July 26th, 2020 – 9:09 am
Exactly, they are ‘extending’ the period of time over which they will be paid, but they are cutting the amount paid.
C@tmomma @ #42 Sunday, July 26th, 2020 – 7:18 am
That’s a completely different argument about the timing.
If the Morrison government’s ‘number one priority is to get people back into jobs’, could Frydenburg outline with a welter of numbers, how many, in what space of time and in what sectors of the economy?
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #45 Sunday, July 26th, 2020 – 9:21 am
And? It’s still very relevant.
C@tmomma @ #47 Sunday, July 26th, 2020 – 7:22 am
Not to your original point.
Now Frydenberg’s explaining the success of Thatcher and Reagan and how the Left hates them.
So Frydenberg is basing the recovery effort on Reaganomics and Thatcherism.
What could possibly go wrong?