How do you solve a problem like Mathias

Jockeying begins to fill Mathias Cormann’s Senate vacancy, plus a new poll of doubtful utility on the republic question.

No Newspoll this week, a three week schedule clearly being the deal now; presumably Essential Research will be along tomorrow morning, hopefully inclusive of the monthly leadership ratings (voting intention apparently being too much to ask). Beyond that, there is the following to relate:

• Mathias Cormann’s recent announcement that he will quit politics at the end of the year leaves the Western Australian Liberals with a Senate vacancy to fill. The West Australian ($) has identified three potential preselection nominees: Sam Calabrese, the state party director; Joe Francis, a minister in Colin Barnett’s government who lost his seat at the 2017 election; and Sherry Sufi, a party activist whose radicalism caused him to be dumped as candidate for Fremantle in 2016, but apparently times have changed. Also named initially was Paul Everingham, chief executive of the Chamber of Minerals and Energy, but he told the paper ($) on the weekend that he had decided not to run.

• The Sunday News Corp tabloids ($) reported on a YouGov poll on republicanism, which I’m guessing was commissioned by the Australian Republican Movement, because it posed the softball question of whether respondents wanted an “Australian as our head of state”. Put thus, the question reliably receives a favourable response, in this case 52% yes, 32% no and 16% don’t know. The poll was conducted from a large sample of “nearly 4500”, on field work dates not identified.

• Below is a podcast from Ben Raue of the Tally Room in which he and I discuss the Eden-Monaro by-election and looming federal redistributions.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

833 comments on “How do you solve a problem like Mathias”

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  1. [60 Minutes Australia
    · 9h
    For Assistant Minister for Superannuation Jane Hume, extraordinary times have called for extraordinary measures. She’s proud of the early access scheme and the help it’s given to Australians in need. #60Mins]

    Jericho: She’s proud that Australians have had to raid their own super to survive.

  2. Lizzie,
    The LNP hate industry super.
    They hate that it’s successful, that it’s run with 50% union direction, that it excludes their bank mates, that it has so much money to invest in non-fossil fuel industries.
    The LNP plan to allow people to take their money out of super will become a permanent fixture, no doubt due to “popular demand” of desperate people.

  3. Hmmm industry super. Personally I think a royal commission is needed to get to the bottom of what’s going on.

  4. At last, I can now look forward to enjoying my optimistic golden years. With a little bit (♫with a little bit♪) of luck I may be in with a chance of a job in a coal mine.

  5. Lars, we just had a royal commission into banks and super.
    Industry super was the only one that sailed through
    The banks and retail super ended on the rocks

  6. KayJay
    With coal price plummeting the only mines left operating will be the computerised open-cut variety.
    Are you a computer operator?

  7. To be fair a proper look at industry super May have to wait till 2022. I’d especially like it to look at governance and making it more competitive.

    It looks like there’ll be 3 or 4 giant unaccountable funds within 20 years.

  8. Maude Lynne @ #8 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 6:57 am

    Kay Jay
    With coal price plummeting the only mines left operating will be the computerised open-cut variety.
    Are you a computer operator?

    NSW have just announced a big new national park and approval for two new coal mines (Hunter area I think).

    Am I a computer operator ❓ I regard myself as a class one button pusher par excellence. 😇☕

  9. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #14 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 7:15 am

    KayJay @ #11 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 5:03 am

    … I regard myself as a class one button pusher par excellence. …

    I’m a bit confused.

    Are you referring to your ability with a computer or a keyboard? 🙂

    Confused you say ❗ De keyboard connected to the computer —

    Toe bone connected to the foot bone
    Foot bone connected to the heel bone
    Heel bone connected to the ankle bone
    Ankle bone connected to the shin bone
    Shin bone connected to the knee bone
    Knee bone connected to the thigh bone
    Thigh bone connected to the hip bone
    Hip bone connected to the back bone
    Back bone connected to the shoulder bone

    Dem bones, dem bones gonna walk around.
    Dem bones, dem bones gonna walk around.
    Dem bones, dem bones gonna walk around.
    Now hear the word of the Lord.

    Now let that be the end of this … thenkew … 😎

  10. Maude Lynne @ #13 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 7:12 am

    Are you referring to the expansion of the existing Glencore mine? That’s more a plan to extract the last bit of money from a mine in its death throes.

    NSW Gov’t sees the resources future in Western NSW
    Lots of pork barreling available

    I occasionally watch local NBN TV (Newcastle) and was surprised last week to hear of the mine approvals. Veracity of which I know not.

  11. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    More than 1000 Sydney pub-goers have been asked to self-isolate and get tested for COVID-19 after another four people who attended the Crossroads Hotel in Casula tested positive for the virus on Sunday, bringing the total to nine. Not a good sign!
    Meanwhile have a look at these boneheads! The police certainly are.
    The AFR says that NSW is at the crossroads as hotspot fears begin to mount.
    Coronavirus outbreaks at Victorian hospitals could cripple the state’s healthcare system as more medical staff are forced into quarantine.
    However, The Australian’s Greg Brown writes that business leaders say Australia cannot afford more hard lockdowns and are urging national cabinet to provide policy certainty and maintain momentum in reopening the economy, despite Victoria battling to suppress a new outbreak of the coronavirus.
    Anthony Galloway refers to a study by the Australian Institute of Criminology that shows that almost one in 10 Australian women in a relationship have experienced domestic violence during the coronavirus crisis.
    The editorial in the AFR says Team Australia must learn how to ride the second wave.
    Up to 100 troops will be dispatched to help guard South Australia’s border with Victoria, as that state’s outbreak swells to more than 1400 active cases. Yesterday’s first full day of deployment for the troops, mostly from the Woodside barracks, marked South Australia’s 13th day of being coronavirus-free.
    Australian families will resume paying for child care on Monday, leaving many wondering how they’ll make ends meet, writes Euan Black.
    A reasonable contribution on the pandemic here from Amanda Vanstone.
    A national survey by Newgate Research found 85 per cent of respondents supported the states and territories shutting off Victoria, with 6 per cent opposing the decision. 74% of Victorians supported the closure.
    Shane Wright tells us that Australians have rushed to get their hands on annual tax refunds, with a record number submitting returns early in a sign of the income pressures on many households during the nation’s first recession in 30 years.
    Bringing forward tax cuts is giving to the wealthy when we can least afford it complains Greg Jericho.
    Euan Black also makes the case against fast-tracking income tax cuts.
    Labor has seized on new figures showing there are now 13 jobseekers for every single job vacancy in Australia to argue against cutting government supports.
    Karen Maley writes that senior bankers concede that prices for luxury houses could weaken, but are surprisingly upbeat about the outlook for house prices in the middle market due to strong demand from expats.
    Michael Fowler explains where the Covid-19 clusters are in Melbourne.
    And Benjamin press tells us a peak medical group wants coronavirus testing stations set up at checkpoints bordering Melbourne as more infections emerge in regional Victorian communities.
    According to Doug Dingwall the agency delivering social welfare to Australians will spend more than $150 million on short-term staff from major labour hire companies as the coronavirus pandemic stretches its internal workforce. The Morrison government in December rejected a Thodey review recommendation to abolish the public service staffing cap, a restriction blamed for the increasing use of contractors.
    Large listed companies have been issued a firm directive to reveal just how reliant they are on the Morrison government’s $70 billion JobKeeper program and other wage support packages around the globe as they prepare for the trickiest reporting season in recent years.
    Fund managers and analysts have warned the heady run of buy now, pay later stocks such as Afterpay, Zip and Splitit could hit a wall in September. Dominic Powell looks at how things might unfold.
    Michael Pascoe tells us how the Afterpay market mania is tempting fate.
    The AFR reports that ASIC is saying banks and wealth managers are more willing to spend ‘large amounts of money’ on consultants to evaluate and run remediation programs rather than risk potentially overcompensating customers dudded by poor financial advice.
    Robert Guy writes that the resurgence of virus cases that has forced Melbourne into lockdown will elevate concerns about the economy and the exposure of already stretched lenders.
    Isabelle Laine thinks it’s not too late for Australia to change course and effectively rid itself of the scourge of COVID-19 – and the answer is just across the ditch.
    The Guardian’s Ben Smee reveals that the Australian Conservation Foundation has launched a legal bid to access documents – kept secret by the federal government – related to meetings between a major political party donor and authorities assessing plans for a development on protected wetlands near Brisbane.
    Australia is treading a dangerous path of media concentration, neoliberal government and little respect for the arts, which is ominously similar to America’s, writes George Grundy.,14092
    Bye bye, Mathias. Is Spud next asks the AIMN.
    The high-rise apartment cladding issue continues unabated.
    The desire for protein – and power – is helping fuel fights for territorial waters around the world. Where are these problems surfacing? And how are warming oceans making them worse? James Massola closely examines the evolving situation.
    The Washington Post reports that as the Trump administration has strayed further from the advice of many scientists and public health experts, the White House has moved to sideline Fauci, scuttled some of his planned TV appearances and largely kept him out of the Oval Office for more than a month even as coronavirus infections surge in large swathes of the country.
    A senior journalist for Nine Media, Farrah Tomazin, has landed in America and finds a deeply divided nation, where there’s nothing that resembles a coherent national plan to tackle a virus that has so far killed more than 134,000 Americans – representing almost a quarter of the global death toll.
    Crispin Hull writes that with America we are witnessing the fall of a great power. He conclude the article saying, “Whatever happens, Australia must not go any further in the direction the US has gone in the past few decades.”
    History doesn’t travel in a straight line. Malcolm Knox tells us why Michael Holding had to deliver his four-minute BLM masterpiece.
    This social moment shouldn’t be used to disempower black people from addressing issues of systematic racism, says Branko Miletic.,14084
    Bloomberg explains how Israel learning a lesson in hubris as its COVID cases soar.
    If Florida were a country, it would rank fourth in the world for the most new cases in a day behind the United States, Brazil and India. Yesterday it recorded 15000 new infections.
    Trump and McConnell are the twin tribunes of America’s ruin – vote them out implores Robert Reich.
    Robert Mueller has broken his silence following Trump’s commutation of Roger Stone’s sentence.
    Ghislaine Maxwell is seeking to block the release of hundreds of pages of secret court evidence that could pile further pressure on Prince Andrew and other public figures embroiled in the Jeffrey Epstein child sex controversy.
    Zona Black tells us that Prince Andrew’s name has once again been raised as one of the many high-profile characters who have a lot to fear from the release of the tapes, with claims he “would certainly” appear on the footage.

    Cartoon Corner

    Peter Broelman

    David Rowe

    Michael Leunig

    Jim Pavlidis

    Joe Benke

    Glen Le Lievre

    Mark Knight

    Johannes Leak

    From the US

  12. The Lincoln Project Effect.

    Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale had an unusual cameo in the president’s first television ad of the year: Sandwiched among images of Trump and Vice President Pence, the bearded Parscale appears twice, taking a selfie with supporters and hugging girls in red ball caps.

    It was an unprecedented use of an ad — one that cost $142,655, according to the firm Ad Analytics — to promote a campaign staffer. It sent a clear message to Trump’s orbit: Parscale, a colorful and outspoken public face of Trumpism, was the leader of the campaign.

    But the image concealed a more complicated reality. As Trump’s reelection effort struggles, Parscale, despite his self-promotion, increasingly finds himself out of favor with his boss and hemmed in by newly hired staffers and recently promoted advisers, according to people familiar with the campaign.

    Remember their ad from 2 months or so ago? So totally messing with their heads!

  13. Just brilliant

    Crossroads Hotel cluster now may have spread to the Army’s Kapooka facility at Wagga Wagga. Several personnel now in self isolation with two confirmed cases.

    Also reports indicate that there was no contact tracing attempts at the hotel according to a patron.

    From the SMH website

  14. Jeez, it looks like the Liberals in WA are running very short on talent. Sherry Sufi or Joe Francis!?! I hope Sam Calabrese is better than that. Is it his family that are the owners of the Re Stores?

  15. Florida is now closing beaches after record infections.

    What is it about their elected officials that lack the imagination to consider locking the doors BEFORE the horses have bolted?

  16. Thank you BK for the ✔ Dawn Patrol. ✔

    Quite right – a very reasonable contribution (see below). So much so that I am expecting a large package today from both the Federal and State Gummints detailing exactly what is required in relation to the Covid19 pandemic. Information regarding distancing, washing and sanitising before, after and during outings. Stay at home rules. Socialising rules, mask rules including where to get ’em, how to put them on, off safely – washing them – reusing them, disposal etc.

    A reasonable contribution on the pandemic here from Amanda Vanstone.

  17. The only thing Liberals and Nationals appear to be good at is raiding the taxpayer piggy bank to buy elections:

    More than three quarters of a fund to expand preschools in booming areas was spent in electorates the Nationals held or were battling to win before the 2019 state election, under a program overseen by National Party minister Sarah Mitchell.

    The Sun Herald can reveal $3.6 million of the $4.6 million in grants awarded in 2018 − or 78 per cent − went to preschools in electorates belonging to the Nationals or its greatest electoral threat, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party.

    The pattern was replicated the following year when electorates belonging to those parties snared $5.3 million of the $8.3 million on offer, answers to questions on notice put by Labor show.

    It means over the past two years they have scooped just under 70 per cent of the total $12.9 million funding pool from Start Strong Capital Works fund.

    The fund helps not-for-profit preschools create additional places in areas of “need and demand” across NSW. Organisations can apply to build, renovate or extend their premises or buy a car to “cater for increasing enrolments”.

    Last year just two preschools in the Sydney metropolitan area won grants, compared to five in the Nationals electorate of Cootamundra alone. Several of the 32 grant recipients over the two years were located in rural towns with declining populations.

  18. PeeBee

    ‘Florida is now closing beaches after record infections.

    What is it about their elected officials that lack the imagination to consider locking the doors BEFORE the horses have bolted”

    Same as Gladys here in NSW.
    The Casula debacle requires immediate action from Gladys.
    But she is too afraid of Scotty to close anything down until it’s too late.
    NSW is doomed
    It will be worse than Victoria

  19. lizzie @ #1 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 6:32 am

    [60 Minutes Australia
    · 9h
    For Assistant Minister for Superannuation Jane Hume, extraordinary times have called for extraordinary measures. She’s proud of the early access scheme and the help it’s given to Australians in need. #60Mins]

    Jericho: She’s proud that Australians have had to raid their own super to survive.

    I actually watched this 60 Minutes report last night. They interviewed a woman who raided her Super to pay for Liposuction and a Breast Reduction. 😐

    I don’t think that can be classed as something that needed to be done to help her survive.

  20. The coronavirus outbreak is reshaping the presidential race in three key Sun Belt states. Joe Biden is now leading President Trump by six points in Florida, and the two are tied in Arizona and competitive in Texas, where Biden is down by just a point to Mr. Trump. Biden has made gains in part because most say their state’s efforts to contain the virus are going badly — and the more concerned voters are about risks from the outbreak, the more likely they are to support Biden.

    In all three states, most voters say their state reopened too soon, and those who say this feel their state went too fast under pressure from the Trump administration. Most also say the president is doing a bad job handling the outbreak. He may be paying a price for that, at least in the short term.

  21. Maude Lynne,
    I said that about Ms Berejiklian last night. She is reactive rather than pro-active because she spends her time berating other states instead of doing what needs to be done in NSW. Then, when it all turns to custard, she’s up there with more front than Myers saying, ‘Now is not the time to start the blame game!’.

    She’s hopeless, but great at PR.

  22. Confessions @ #25 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 5:52 am

    The WH is reportedly backgrounding against Fauci. This made me laugh!

    Trump is also galled by Fauci’s approval ratings. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll showed that 67 percent of voters trusted Fauci for information on the coronavirus, compared with 26 percent who trusted Trump.

    That result is looks like it’s from the one question. 🙂

  23. And in the US, climate change breaking records across the South…my friends recently bought a place in Palm Springs to retire- its 48.4 degrees today …in a desert…..yuk…

  24. Torchbearer,
    Arizona is copping the double whammy. Wildfires caused by Global Heating and out of control COVID-19 outbreak.

  25. C@t,
    Yes, I couldn’t understand how so many people thought Gladys to have saved us. In her case it’s been good luck not good management .
    She still has the tyre marks from the last time she was bussed by Scotty during the bushfires.
    He won’t defend her actions opening the pubs, clubs and gyms, and leaving the border open too long, either.

  26. Barney:

    You can just imagine Trump’s reaction to that poll. No wonder the WH has been undermining him to the media in an effort to discredit him.

  27. LVT ”Personally I think a royal commission is needed to get to the bottom of what’s going on.“

    When the Government was finally forced* into having a Royal Commission into banking, they turned it on Industry Super, which was the only part of the banking industry to come out of it looking good.

    * their banking mates decided they best get it over and done with while their friends were still in power.

  28. Standards have fallen at the SMH, repeating what ‘a caller to 2GB’ said as fact.

    I haven’t been to the Crossroads Hotel ever, but in recent visits to ones closer in to the city you put your name and phone number in a sheet when you go to the bar, and get a wrist band. Same if you sit at a table. I can’t imagine somewhere like Crossroads would be any different – in fact the owners have said as much.

    But the caller to 2GB….

  29. Industry Super: as a youngster I was inculcated with the value of life’s insurance and as a farming family, the AMP was the way to go. It was unquestioned that the local AMP agent became a familiar figure around town and on the farm. My first posting at a private school as a teacher hadn’t an AMP super scheme and again the local AMP agent was a regular in the staff common room selling/pushing personal policies ,I even took out a second private super policy.
    This was probably the only good move I made as super wasn’t transportable in the 70-80s so a move to another school meant at least I had a policy of my own.
    On becoming a public school teacher I eventually became a SASS member but I soon became aware that a local financial adviser and AMP agent had taken up ‘oversight’ of my private policy and was ‘taking her cut’ along with pushing for greater exposure to AMP.
    When AMP demutualised we cashed our shares at about $20 each which was fortunate as that price plummeted soon after.
    A (free) adviser attached to SASS advised to roll-over the Private Super policy I had with AMP as the fees were at least double the SASS ones and the subsequent performance of that second industry scheme was excellent.
    Better still , I was free of the ever present AMP Agent always offering ‘advice’ and obviously taking their cut.
    Industry super is a huge thorn in the side of the big financial companies and represents a threat to their business model which is essentially parasitic.

  30. Sprocket,
    The plan will be to discredit venue management for not following rules, and protect Gladys, whereas in Victoria the plan was to discredit Andrews.

  31. Oh dear.

    Chelsea Hetherington
    #BREAKING: More than a dozen ADF personnel are in lockdown at the RAAF Base at Wagga Wagga, after at least two members are suspected to have contracted COVID-19. It is understood the group visited the Crossroads Hotel at Casula between July 3 and 10.

  32. Maude Lynne @ #43 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 8:23 am

    The plan will be to discredit venue management for not following rules, and protect Gladys, whereas in Victoria the plan was to discredit Andrews.

    Has Ms Berejiklian done anything about The Golden Sheaf Hotel at Double Bay yet? Like advise everyone who was there last Wednesday to go and get tested?

  33. Thank you, BK.

    The fundamental here is too many humans chasing too few fish. Australia’s situation is a bit better than the global situation with most of Australia’s top 20 fisheries by species ONLY fished to capacity or less.

    But, as with everything, there is a differential distribution impact driven by scarcity. The consequence of the wild fish catch/population relationship in Australia is that many ordinary people can no longer afford to buy fresh fish at around $50 per kg for the more common species and much, much more for the more desirable species.

    The Greens would, no doubt, take this into account when implementing their population and immigration policy, which is to launch a community debate about the policy.

    Global warming is already having mega impacts on some fisheries and this trend is accelerating. These impacts are not necessarily linear. Kelp forests are important nurseries for several commercial species. The nexus between a slight increase in water temperature, the move of sea urchins south, and the destruction of Tasmania’s kelp forests is an example of a non-linear impact.

  34. ”I actually watched this 60 Minutes report last night. They interviewed a woman who raided her Super to pay for Liposuction and a Breast Reduction“

    Haven’t watched 60 Minutes in years. I wonder how they found her? Maybe they start stories on social media (using a dummy id) to attract responses from people like this. They must go looking for them.

  35. The undermining of safe Covid behaviour by Morrison by his Trumpian Football attendance…no distancing, masks….is dangerous as his followers are given the green light .
    I fear we are sliding into a US mode despite the best efforts of State Premiers. Morrison is still thumbing his nose and by his actions shows he doesn’t believe the science.
    For mine, I’d like masks to be mandatory for 6 weeks, if for no other reason than to remind us we are in a national emergency, and can’t afford to let this get away.

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