Miscellany: NT poll, federal parliament seat entitlements, 2019 election book

Various recent electoral news happenings, including a new poll that suggests the looming Northern Territory election will be, if nothing else, more competitive than the last.

The Eden-Monaro by-election has naturally consumed my energies of late, and I’m continuing to follow the late count through the post below, although the result is no longer in doubt. There appears to be no Essential Research poll this week, which leaves me with the following to hang a new open thread off:

• A local environmental concern has published results of a uComms robo-poll of the Darwin area ahead of the Northern Territory election, to be held on August 22. Including responses to the forced-response follow-up for the 13% who were initially undecided, the poll records Labor on 39.3% and the Country Liberal Party on 31.0%, compared with 47.9% and 33.6% respectively in Darwin seats last time. The new Territory Alliance party of former CLP Chief Minister Terry Mills is on 13.7% and the Greens, who only ran in three seats last time, were on 7.2%. The poll was conducted on June 29 from a sample of 699.

• The determination of state and territory seat entitlements for the next parliamentary term was reached on Friday, with a conclusion that was long known in advance and discussed here at length: namely, that Victoria will gain another new seat while Western Australia and the Northern Territory will each lose one, bringing the total number of House of Representatives back to a more typical 150 from its current 151.

• The Australian National University’s regular post-election review of the federal election, entitled Morrison’s Miracle: The 2019 Australian Federal Election, contains 24 chapters of analysis of every facet of the campaign and result, and is available as a free download.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,788 comments on “Miscellany: NT poll, federal parliament seat entitlements, 2019 election book”

  1. Re Steve Davis @11:06.
    I just googled that to see if it’s a real quote. It is, in The Australian. Unbelievable.
    No doubt if/when Sydney is getting 200 cases a day Morrison will deny all knowledge.

  2. Steve Davis

    Newscorpse have been gunning for Andrews before the pandemic. Now they believe they have found an easy way to get him.
    I see it all backfiring on them bigly

  3. Boerwar loves to accuse the LNP Government of being corrupt.

    Perhaps he could give us his opinion on Justin Trudeau and his family involvement with the WE Charity.

  4. Fear and loathing in Las Sydney or Las Melbourne depending on your choice of parallel universe.
    “we are one” an inappropriate observation on so many levels with one large chunk of main stream media ownership pouring fuel onto the eternal flame prejudice and division, the only trait found commonly across this land.
    The lucky country quite often a contradiction at best, sometimes more sinister.

  5. Fulvio Sammut says:
    Sunday, July 12, 2020 at 11:00 pm
    “Those with tickets, who will almost invariably be Dockers supporters. Its been on WA media all week.

    Why do you ask such a stupid question while well knowing the answer?”

    Apparently the PM wasn’t allowed to go to the footy even though he was allowed to go to the footy. If you’re not confused by that then you have Olympic level mental gymnastics.

  6. Andrews could have gone to the MCG – where he would have been the only person at the MCG…

    If suppression is still going to be the strategy going forward, it will mean limited entry to the footy, limited people at cafes, gyms, pubs, etc.
    That will be the New Covid Normal.
    It also has the underlying risk, of what is happening in Melbourne happening again and again, unless the policy settings are so limited that numbers get limited.

    The alternative is to go for complete and total elimination. A few weeks of pain has so much more gain to it…

  7. Bucephalus says:
    Sunday, July 12, 2020 at 11:24 pm
    C says:
    Sunday, July 12, 2020 at 11:01 pm

    I know nothing about the stadium…never been there….likely never will. I was not aware there’s a match or matches coming up. It’s footy. It’s the last thing on my mind.

    Why do you ask silly questions about things that are basically of no importance?

    I don’t know a single person who could care less about a footy game. I know very many who’re still anxious about COVID and who still observe distancing.

    You have an ideological/political objective. Very few share this. It’s idiotic given the context.

  8. ”Perhaps he could give us his opinion on Justin Trudeau and his family involvement with the WE Charity”

    I can slot that into my list of things to worry about at around #7000.

  9. Bucephalus, why don’t you have a little wristy slap at Jacinda Ardern at the same time. I know you despise her. Yet, she’s not the target now so we’ll go Trudeau in the meantime until she gives you an angle. Weak as piss.

  10. You do know the difference between the Covid -19 status of NSW and WA, do you not, Bucephalus?

    Or do your own mental gymnastics enable you to leap over facts at a single bound?

  11. William,

    If I was her Advisor (and ignoring my personal thoughts) there would have been a different approach. She shouldn’t have made the initial call to open them. I don’t know if it’s her or her Advisers but she’s played her hand extremely poorly given the circumstances. Shame really because I like her and think she is a pretty competent operator.

    At the moment she and the LNP don’t stand a chance next election but as Victoria shows things can change rapidly.

  12. Fulvio Sammut says:
    Sunday, July 12, 2020 at 11:38 pm

    “You do know the difference between the Covid -19 status of NSW and WA, do you not, Bucephalus?“

    NSW has a very low level of community spread and the PM did nothing that is banned.

    Perhaps you are confusing NSW with Victoria.

  13. Harvey must be desperate for some attention. Anything would do. So differentiating the Libs from the government must have been attractive. But more than 90% of the electorate support the closures and want them to continue. They are a safety measure that worked. Harvey has supported a risk-taking and/or gain-losing position….and done so for plainly political reasons. No one is impressed. She has disqualified herself in the approaching election.

  14. c says:
    Sunday, July 12, 2020 at 11:36 pm
    “Bucephalus says:
    Sunday, July 12, 2020 at 11:24 pm
    C says:
    Sunday, July 12, 2020 at 11:01 pm

    I know nothing about the stadium…never been there….likely never will. I was not aware there’s a match or matches coming up. It’s footy. It’s the last thing on my mind.

    Why do you ask silly questions about things that are basically of no importance?

    I don’t know a single person who could care less about a footy game. I know very many who’re still anxious about COVID and who still observe distancing.”

    Strange that when 60,000 would have bought tickets but now 30,000 will – but you know no one who cares about AFL, NRL, ARU, Basketball, Cricket or any other sport.

    Terribly strange politics should raise its ugly head on this blog.

  15. steve davis says:
    Sunday, July 12, 2020 at 11:48 pm
    “Harvey has as much chance of winning the WA election as Nath has of becoming a Bill Shorten supporter.”

    You’re probably right but a week is a long time in politics and it’s many months until the election.

  16. Morrison wants to stay in touch with the footy vote. Footy is also a News Corp set. So promoting footy could be good for his principal sponsors, who’ve lost a swag on ad dollars during the lockdowns.

    But the main message he wants to convey is that he beat COVID. Well….that remains to be seen. He’s betting things can go back to the way they were. It’s a big bet. But he probably reckons it is a gamble worth taking. The pay-off could be significant if he’s right.

    The fact that he’s punting on the well-being of the people of NSW is not lost on everyone. We have to hope the bet is not a loser even if we think Morrison is a clown.

  17. Buce….I’m not even slightly interested in sport. It bores me. Deeply.

    I couldn’t care less if the match is sold out or cancelled or played in the dark. I have not been to more than 2 footy games since West Perth defeated East Perth in the grand final in the 1970s….or was it the 60s? I don’t know. I don’t care.

  18. I cant believe that Newscorpse pay so called journos to write complete shit about the ABC over and over again.Its like Naths worn out record about Bill Shorten.Since when can it be called journalism to criticise another media organisation because they have a so called bias against the right. Journalists are a fucking joke and their profession is becoming a laughing stock.

  19. I had a long lunch with some very politically engaged friends today, and we agreed that the 2021 WA election, barring a black swan event, was out of reach for the WA Liberals and that they’d be doing well to maintain their current seat count, never mind make a dent in WA Labor’s 40 (of 61).

    The best news of all is that the Liberal candidate for Swan Hills is unelectable. He’s recently on the record as a local councillor wanting to jack up rates and is opposed to the railway line. Dignified silence and all the airtime he needs will get Labor over the line against him.

    On the potential pick-up list for Labor are Dawsville, Geraldton and Darling Range. The Liberals would be reduced to the safest of safe seats in the Western Suburbs.

  20. Grimace
    The only winners for the Libs in WA will be the rusted on Stirling Highway and Canning Highway affluent suburbs. Cant see where they would pick up any seats from Labor either.

  21. grim….the WA Liberals had a semblance of a chance of picking up a couple of seats. But their willingness to politicise COVID has put them out of the race.

    MacGowan has been very risk averse and very consistent in his messaging. His cabinet likewise. I think they will steam home. Hopefully they will make gains in the legislative council too

  22. Labor could take seats from the usual suspects in the Legislative Council…..One Nation….The Greens….The LibDems…the Libs….what a delight that would be.

  23. If Labor can consolidate their vote in the marginals around Perth they will likely win a third term too in 2025, taking them thru to 2029. That would be 12 years in power and time enough to carry thru some very important changes.

    So the election in March next year is going to be very important for the State….and maybe for the nation. It might help Labor rebuild its credentials for Federal elections in WA.

  24. Florida reported a record increase of more than 15,000 new cases of COVID-19 in a single day on Sunday as the growing outbreak forces state authorities to close some businesses and beaches.

    If Florida were a country, it would rank fourth in the world for the most new cases a day behind the United States, Brazil and India.

    Its daily increases have already surpassed the highest daily tally reported by any European country during the height of the pandemic there. Florida has also broken New York State’s record of 12,847 new cases on April 10 when it was the epicenter of the U.S. outbreak.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-florida/florida-reports-over-15000-covid-19-cases-in-single-day-record-idUSKCN24D0I5

  25. ‘ In Donald Trump’s America, Roger Stone is rewarded for lying and Lt. Col. Vindman is punished for telling the truth.’
    – Bill Kristol

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *