Miscellany: NT poll, federal parliament seat entitlements, 2019 election book

Various recent electoral news happenings, including a new poll that suggests the looming Northern Territory election will be, if nothing else, more competitive than the last.

The Eden-Monaro by-election has naturally consumed my energies of late, and I’m continuing to follow the late count through the post below, although the result is no longer in doubt. There appears to be no Essential Research poll this week, which leaves me with the following to hang a new open thread off:

• A local environmental concern has published results of a uComms robo-poll of the Darwin area ahead of the Northern Territory election, to be held on August 22. Including responses to the forced-response follow-up for the 13% who were initially undecided, the poll records Labor on 39.3% and the Country Liberal Party on 31.0%, compared with 47.9% and 33.6% respectively in Darwin seats last time. The new Territory Alliance party of former CLP Chief Minister Terry Mills is on 13.7% and the Greens, who only ran in three seats last time, were on 7.2%. The poll was conducted on June 29 from a sample of 699.

• The determination of state and territory seat entitlements for the next parliamentary term was reached on Friday, with a conclusion that was long known in advance and discussed here at length: namely, that Victoria will gain another new seat while Western Australia and the Northern Territory will each lose one, bringing the total number of House of Representatives back to a more typical 150 from its current 151.

• The Australian National University’s regular post-election review of the federal election, entitled Morrison’s Miracle: The 2019 Australian Federal Election, contains 24 chapters of analysis of every facet of the campaign and result, and is available as a free download.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,788 comments on “Miscellany: NT poll, federal parliament seat entitlements, 2019 election book”

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  1. Thanks for the lead-in William. With Eden Monaro no longer in doubt you would think the losing candidate might conceded defeat, but my standards are too high.

    This excellent article on the ABC website by Stephen Long and Daniel Ziffer reminds people of the reality of the 1990-91 recession. Recovery took years. They make this valid point:

    “Unlike the global financial crisis of 2008, when central banks had room to move, this situation sees organisations like our Reserve Bank administering interest rates that were already at record lows.

    That puts more pressure back on governments to spend to prop up employment and the economy.”

    So far the only sector Scomo has really spent more money in is defence. It does not create many jobs. The government will need to do more than that. The other obvious place to start – moving to large scale renewable energy, which would reduce business power bills, is contrary to their pro-coal rhetoric.

    Its the unemployment we have to have.

  2. Once upon a time the green/Liberal wedge was subtle. Not anymore, Lars Von Trier, Nath and Pegasus all singing from the same song sheet. Robo debt it seems is all Labors fault. It takes the compete jettison of the facts to argue the case but there you are. All arguing from the same song sheet.

    Pegasus are the Greens in the meetings to set the political strategy or do you get handed the sheet?

  3. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Experts believe Australia has entered a dangerous new phase of the pandemic as soaring infection numbers in Melbourne forced the city back into lockdown and put NSW on high alert for new COVID-19 clusters.
    The editorial in The Age declares that yesterday was a terrible day for Victoria, but decisive action had to be taken. It says that if the Australian Commonwealth is to mean anything, every state and the federal government must give Victoria full support.
    Similarly, the AFR editorial says that the draconian treatment of Victoria makes it clear the price of clearing a path out of job- and business-killing lockdowns is to clamp down on new disease outbreaks without hesitation.
    Daniel Andrews says there’s no option but to announce very difficult steps for his state including the lockdown of metropolitan Melbourne for six weeks. He’s less keen on explaining why his state got into such a dire position, says Jennifer Hewett.
    The easy to dislike New South Wales Police Minister has called on Victoria to do the “decent thing” and help pay for the cost of closing the border between the two states, as more than 190 new infections were recorded in Melbourne on Tuesday.
    Karen Maley writes that the RBA boss has sounded a cautious note in his latest statement, warning that the pandemic has left businesses and consumers with long-lasting scars. Lowe says there is a bumpy road ahead.
    Coronavirus infections could have soared to more than 3000 per day in Victoria by the end of July without a lockdown, but further deaths are already inevitable, experts and health authorities say.
    Shane Wright explains the dangers of dipping into superannuation funds to ride through the pandemic. The ATO has issued a warning,
    Professor Andrew Podger explains why he thinks Morrison’s national cabinet is a superficial path to federalism reform.
    Clancy Yeates tells us that the banks have extended the mortgage repayment lifeline for another four months from the September “cliff” if needed by borrowers.
    Paul Kelly writes that the status quo result in the Eden-Monaro by-election is stacked with meaning 14 months since the general election and after the opening phase of the COVID-19 crisis, the greatest tribulation facing the nation since World War II.
    Labor’s win in the marginal regional electorate of Eden-Monaro has given the party a new template to win regional Australian seats and Anthony Albanese intends to push hard for it to be applied, writes Paul Bongiorno.
    Rob Harris says some federal Labor MPs have warned a five-day lock-down of public housing towers in Melbourne’s inner northern suburbs will further entrench disadvantage and exclusion within its communities.
    However, John Faine injects a good dose of reality to the situation in Melbourne and he gets behind the government’s efforts.
    Clancy Yeates thinks the state border closure is worth the economic pain it will bring.
    Melbourne’s second lockdown spells death for small businesses. John Vaz suggests three things governments can do to save them.
    Dana McCauley writes that Medical staff at the Royal Melbourne Hospital are concerned about the risk of contracting the coronavirus during a training course for the hospital’s new digital record system, after two nurses who attended the group sessions tested positive to COVID-19. Everywhere the suppression is fragile.
    The Age explains how police will use number-plate recognition software to identify where drivers are travelling from, as authorities prepare to enforce Victoria’s second wave of lockdowns from 11.59pm tonight.
    Elective surgery patients at the Royal Adelaide Hospital will be swabbed for COVID-19 while under anaesthetic. And in a separate move, the hospital’s health workers will be offered testing as officials step up efforts to guard against fresh outbreaks, like the second-wave surge in Victoria.
    The NSW Auditor-General is facing Opposition calls to investigate the state government’s handling of a council grants program that has been slammed as a pork-barrelling fund.
    And Richard Mulgan wonders where has the buck has stopped on robodebt and the sport rorts saga. A pretty good question, I’d say.
    According to the Canberra Times, nearly 200,000 Australians who had money wrongly taken from them in the robodebt scheme could miss out on refunds unless they update their bank details with authorities.
    Paul Karp reports on Stuart Robert’s appearance at the NPC yesterday.
    Christopher Knaus tells us that crossbench senators are pushing for a parliamentary inquiry into the treatment of the lawyer Bernard Collaery and Witness K, while Labor has pressed the attorney general to explain his decision to approve the prosecution and enforce secrecy in the case.
    Elizabeth Knight writes about the stellar rise of the value of AfterPay. These parasites IMHO do nothing for the economy IMHO. Surely some bubbles will burst.
    As a good example of this, Stephen Bartholomeusz explains how the spectacular collapse of payments giant Wirecard has shone a spotlight on auditors and their role in uncovering elaborate and difficult-to-detect accounting frauds.
    Meanwhile John Collett reports that shareholders are forecast to lose as much as $15 billion in dividends that would have been payable over the six months starting on July 1, as companies slash or cancel payments due to the heavy financial impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
    Isabelle Lane writes that Australia Post workers have struck a deal to protect pay and jobs following claims one in four posties’ jobs were under threat from coronavirus-related letters service cuts.
    Ensuring your exposure to climate change risk is assessed, monitored and addressed is the best way to drive profitable long-term outcomes, writes Tim Conly.
    Home loan customers are in the box seat to demand a better deal as a global fall in the cost of money prompts banks to cut the interest rates on new loans.
    Now Virgin Australia’s administrator Deloitte has cast doubt on whether its sale of the airline to Bain Capital is as watertight as originally presented, with court documents revealing the transaction is conditional and could still be terminated.
    Professor Megan Davis opines that a new agreement won’t deliver the change Indigenous Australians need.
    Australia could struggle to meet emission reduction targets despite Angus Taylor’s claim of Kyoto success, writes Michael Mazengarb.
    The multi-billion-dollar company relied on a technicality to refuse to refund 100-year-old Egon Pedersen his $270,000 refundable accommodation deposit, making a mockery of its “pillars” of integrity, openness and trust. It wasn’t until Michael West Media got involved that the company changed its tune. Dr Sarah Russell reports.
    Big four professional services firm Deloitte moved quickly when it announced that more than 700 jobs, or roughly 7 per cent of its 10,000-strong workforce, was being cut.
    The European Commission hopes the worst is over but urges the EU’s squabbling leaders to nail down the fiscal rescue package.
    Welcome to Johnson’s alternative reality – where care home workers get the blame, writes Marina Hyde. She really serves it up to Boris!
    China is forging ahead in the race to develop a vaccine to help control the COVID-19 pandemic, with Sinovac Biotech’s experimental vaccine set to become the country’s second and the world’s third to enter final stage testing later this month. It is behind eight of the 19 vaccine candidates currently in human trials.
    Eryk Bagshaw reports that Australians living in and travelling to China may be arbitrarily detained, the Department of Foreign Affairs has warned as the relationship between the two countries deteriorates. I suppose my son and his family living in our embassy in Beijing will be OK.
    Russia is killing US soldiers. Trump’s response is a shameful dereliction of duty, writes Michael H Fuchs.
    The New York Times has some of the stuff in the book written by a niece of Donald Trump. The titbits are hardly complimentary.
    Donald Trump touted the use of hydroxychloroquine as a means to combat the coronavirus – and the WHO says it doesn’t work – but it didn’t stop a tremendous surge in prescription sales. Between February and March, an additional 300,000 Americans received a prescription for anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine.
    It would appear that there are a lot of highflyers getting nervous about what might emerge now Epstein’s procurer, Ms Maxwell, has been arrested.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    David Pope

    John Shakespeare

    Matt Golding

    Fiona Katauskas

    Peter Broelman

    Simon Letch

    Johannes Leak

    Rod Clement

    From the US

  4. Peter Klages
    ‘Interesting. I tried several times to post a conciliatory tone in comments on this story in The Age. None accepted. It would appear the moderator is only accepting comments that criticize the Premier.
    The Age is a disgrace.’

    Victoria’s fate depends on Premier regaining control

  5. This is Senator Jane Hume sniping in her typical Liberal way. Her tone never alters.

    Jane Hume
    Strange that the ALP are wheeling out Wayne ‘4 years of surpluses’ Swan and the put-out-to-pasture Doug Cameron to talk down Australia’s economic response to COVID19. Is @JEChalmers in hiding, or unable to get coverage?

    Doug Cameron
    · 11h
    Strong interview from ⁦@SwannyQLD⁩ on ⁦@abc730⁩
    Calling out the need for more stimulus to create jobs and boost the economy.
    I say build affordable public and social housing, delivers jobs and puts a roof over peoples heads.

  6. Thanks William and BK for today’s wrap.

    Something local and making the front page of the local paper: one of our local councillors has been charged for handling a postal vote during last year’s council elections. I can’t find the news article online, but the charges come with potential $5000 fine or 12 months imprisoned.

  7. Just the facts, please.

    Good old reporters took the view that you had to give the public all the relevant facts, including those that would enable their readers to reach a different conclusion from the one the reporter had arrived at; new idealistic reporters believe that you must shield readers from those facts that might get in the way of their going quickly to the Truth and staying there. That constitutes a firewall almost as impermeable as the Chinese government’s electronic control of the Internet.

  8. From May 2020 onwards the Victorian LNP and the usual media suspects wilfully waged a deliberate campaign to undermine the Labor response to the pandemic. This did not happen in other states.

    In times of a pandemic it should be illegal for a public figure, politician or the media to undermine public health messaging. Doing so kills people.

  9. I have been searching and searching still no sign of Morrison , i was harsh on the mouse when i claimed Morrison was hiding like a mouse.

    Even a mouse has the courage to appear

  10. Quasar @ #4 Wednesday, July 8th, 2020 – 7:16 am

    Peter Klages
    ‘Interesting. I tried several times to post a conciliatory tone in comments on this story in The Age. None accepted. It would appear the moderator is only accepting comments that criticize the Premier.
    The Age is a disgrace.’

    Victoria’s fate depends on Premier regaining control

    I was surveyed by the SMH/Age yeserday abou how even-handed I thought they were and so I wrote about this. Hopefully someone takes notice of my comment.

  11. lizzie,
    Yet Adam Creighton, hard-nosed ecoonomic ideologue that he is, was out there again yesterday spouting his nonsense. Maybe he should lead the non mask-wearing, non hand sanitising, non social distancing, ‘business as usual’ movement in Victoria, instead of sniping from the sidelines? But that’s not his well-paid job, is it? 😐

  12. I was wondering about a mask, and found this. Home made ones may not be all they’re cracked up to be.

    For community use, the options are surgical masks and cloth masks. Surgical masks are single-use only and should not be re-used. If they are unavailable or too expensive, you can make an effective cloth version yourself if you follow a few key principles.

    Cloth masks can vary widely depending on the material and design – a single or even double-layered mask or bandanna is likely not protective at all.

    A cloth mask should have at least three or four layers, including a water-resistant outer layer, a fine weave and high thread count, and should be washed and worn fresh each day. It should fit snugly around your face, or air will flow through the gaps on the sides. A nylon stocking over the top can help.

    Research shows a 12-layered cloth mask can be as good as a surgical mask, although you may not have the time or inclination to make a homemade version with 12 layers.


  13. “I apologize for the position we’re in. I’m accountable as the leader of this state” –
    @DanielAndrewsMP on @BreakfastNews
    “I’m furious about where we find ourselves”

  14. The tell-all book by Trump’s niece has been given in advance to media outlets. Somehow her tidbits make Trump look even worse than he is!

    Here are some of the highlights:

    She claims Trump hired a smarter boy he knew to take the SAT for him; the high score helped get him into college.

    She describes Trump’s father, Fred, as not just domineering but a “sociopath.” He was verbally abusive to his children, especially Fred Jr., insisting that they become “killers” unhindered by emotion. “Fred perverted his son’s perception of the world and damaged his ability to live in it,” she writes.

    Her father, Fred Jr., came in for particular contempt from Fred Sr. for being soft. “The lesson [President Trump] learned, at its simplest, was that it was wrong to be like Freddy: Fred didn’t respect his oldest son, so neither would Donald.”

    When Fred Sr. died, Mary was told his estate was worth only around $30 million; the portion of that figure that became her inheritance was the subject of the dispute that led to a financial settlement and her NDA. She later gave Fred Sr.’s business records to the New York Times, which published a blockbuster story showing that the patriarch had transferred over $1 billion to his children (a scheme mostly carried out after Fred Jr.’s death), potentially defrauding the U.S. government of half a billion dollars in tax revenue.

    On a trip to Mar-a-Lago when she was 29, Mary came out in a bathing suit and shorts. “Holy s–t, Mary. You’re stacked,” her uncle said to her, with all the grace and sensitivity we’ve come to expect from him.

    For a time, Trump hired Mary to ghost-write his book “The Art of the Comeback.” At one point a Trump employee sent her some pages of material Trump wanted to include in the book. “It was an aggrieved compendium of women he had expected to date but who, having refused him, were suddenly the worst, ugliest, and fattest slobs he’d ever met,” including Madonna and Olympic figure skater Katarina Witt.

    At a White House dinner in 2017, the president gestured toward his son Eric’s wife; the two at that point had been together for eight years. “I barely even knew who the f— she was, honestly, but then she gave a great speech during the campaign in Georgia supporting me,” Trump said.

    “Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong-Un, and Mitch McConnell, all of whom bear more than a passing psychological resemblance to Fred,” Mary writes, “recognized … that Donald’s checkered personal history and his unique personality flaws make him extremely vulnerable to manipulation by smarter, more powerful men.”


  15. Donald Trump touted the use of hydroxychloroquine as a means to combat the coronavirus – and the WHO says it doesn’t work – but it didn’t stop a tremendous surge in prescription sales. Between February and March, an additional 300,000 Americans received a prescription for anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine.

    Even worse is this nursing home gave hydroxy to residents!

    For more than two weeks in April, a drug regimen that included hydroxychloroquine was routinely dispensed at the struggling center, often for patients who had not been tested for covid-19 and for those who suffered from medical conditions known to raise the risk of dangerous side effects, interviews, emails and medical notes and records obtained by The Washington Post show.


  16. C@t I can understands you disagree with creightons views but what does his level of remuneration have to do with it ? How would you know anyway what he’s paid ?

  17. LvT,
    Or can I call you, Edwina, seeing as how you arrogate unto yourself the right to call Zerlo, ‘Zoidlord’? I am making a reasonable supposition about Adam Crieghton’s level of remuneration. We have seen the figures for other well-paid Murdoch/IPA shills and he is of that kind. Also, what I suggest by saying that is that he is a mouth-for-hire but also a very zealous one.

    That’s my opinion. This is an opinion blog. You can question it if you want to. I don’t have to subscribe to your pov and you don’t have to subscribe to mine.

    What I don’t think you have the right to do is to direct the nature of people’s comments. People don’t do it to you even though, lord knows, the temptation to do so is mighty. Do ask , don’t tell.

  18. Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.

    My song for today is “Crying Eyes”.

    ♫It ain’t easy drying these ♪ crying eyes of ♫ mine
    ♪What can you do when those ♫ tears make you ♪ blind
    ♫What can you do when those ♪ tears make you ♫ blind

    Hayfever in winter. 😢

  19. Countries all over the world that are easing restrictions, despite the virus still circulating (whether at a low or high level), are seeing a resurgence in the epidemic (and having to increase restrictions again).

    Victoria has been hit by a double whammy. Mistakes in quarantine right at a time of high pressure to (further) ease restrictions.

  20. Andrea Anti Fascist W.

    “My partner’s son in law and his grandson were extolling Pauline Hanson tonight and doing LNP Shouty McShouties at me.
    I called them out then walked out of the pub leaving half a fine steak on the plate. There’s only so much bigotry I can take. Was I rude?“

    Replying to
    “No. As long as you left them with the bill…”

  21. Hearing Frydenberg being interviewed on ABC radio this morning and the main focus for him is solely worrying about the economy… You’d think that solving the public health problem would be the only thing to be talking about. Again it’s all re-open re-open, get business going. It’s that attitude that will deliver future waves of infection…

  22. Speaking of withdrawing from the WHO, yesterday GG linked video of a guy who has come down from Brisbane to impart his knowledge to the police at the public housing towers. There is more videos on the thread I have linked.
    This qanon cult is ridiculous

    As I have been saying, there are lots of people who are not functioning with a clear mind at present


  23. BK says:
    Wednesday, July 8, 2020 at 8:18 am
    Who is the Acting PM at the moment?

    Good question , McCormack seem to have vanished like Morrison

    Newsltd hacks may be the acting prime ministers

  24. Auspol Dictionary

    – “a time of intense difficulty or danger often when @ScottMorrisonMP goes missing or on holidays, leaving Australians to fend for themselves.”

  25. BK & Scott

    The most frustrating thing is that the PM’s fans say “Ah, but isn’t he a wonderful family man,” and his support stays up.

  26. Regarding RoboDebt and its roots in the last Labor Government.

    You have millions of people receiving benefits and you wish to ensure that people have not been over-claiming.

    You can go through each persons file individually. An incredibly inefficient, costly and time consuming process.

    You can come up with a method to quickly eliminate those with which there was no possibility of a problem.

    This is what the Department did when it developed the algorithm by cross referencing their data with ATO data.

    This rough and ready sorting method provided a much smaller list of people where there was the POSSIBILITY that over-claiming had occurred.

    The Department knew that a person being on this list did not mean that that person had over-claimed, just that the POSSIBILITY existed, and so it was reviewed by a public servant before being discard or pursued.

    This review process was still inefficient, costly and time consuming, so I would imagine they would have started with the largest discrepancies and worked their way down and probably not even looked at ones below a certain value, because the process costs would have been larger than the potential recovery amount.

    This is the system that the current Government inherited and then corrupted into what we now know as RoboDebt.

    They removed the human element and reversed the onus of proof by assuming everyone on the list had a debt unless THAT PERSON could prove otherwise.

  27. IPA Researcher.

    Gideon Rozner
    · 12h

    I’m at my favourite bar. After speaking to the owner I literally feel like crying. It’s hard to run a small business in this country at the best of times, but now they’ve been kicked in the guts for the second time. It’s heartbreaking.

  28. It’s obvious that changing our behaviour (long term) is difficult, and in some cases that may be explained by people not being in a position to change them even if they want to. Governments need to provide ongoing support to people to change their behaviour, even when the virus recedes locally.

    Certainly the idea of punishing people who are doing it hard on the assumption that they are a bunch of leeches needs to go. We’re going to have to get used to the idea that a large number of people will, through no fault of their own, be unable to contribute the “fair share” that our society demands of them in normal times (to prove their worth and deservedness), and will need to be supported by those of us who are still able.

    It wouldn’t hurt if the government invested heavily in activities requiring less physical interaction, and supported people in transitioning to them. I would wonder if this government regrets sabotaging the NBN, but I doubt they are capable of even recognising the damage they caused and are probably still giving themselves a pat on the back.

  29. Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Wednesday, July 8, 2020 at 8:36 am

    They removed the human element and reversed the onus of proof by assuming everyone on the list had a debt unless THAT PERSON could prove otherwise.

    Clearly a lot more efficient, clearly wrong. What is amazing is the Greens and the Liberals are claiming the system that was and the systems the Liberals introduced are equal.

    In supporting the Liberals the Greens have moved to a new level.

  30. Alpha Zero @ #27 Wednesday, July 8th, 2020 – 6:24 am

    Hearing Frydenberg being interviewed on ABC radio this morning and the main focus for him is solely worrying about the economy… You’d think that solving the public health problem would be the only thing to be talking about. Again it’s all re-open re-open, get business going. It’s that attitude that will deliver future waves of infection…

    Well he is the Treasurer.

    Of course he is a fool if he doesn’t consider the economic impact of the virus running rampant again throughout the Country.

  31. BinT

    Excellent clear post on robodebt.

    For the sake of the blog I will ignore frednk’s typical inflammatory misrepresentation of my position, a position bill last night also attempted to do.

    My response to him couldn’t be clearer:

    Tuesday, July 7, 2020 at 11:37 pm

    My concern is for all the people who endured hardship due to erroneous debts not just those post-2015. It’s not that hard to understand.

  32. Pegasus says:
    Wednesday, July 8, 2020 at 8:44 am

    My concern is for all the people who endured hardship due to erroneous debts not just those post-2015. It’s not that hard to understand.

    I don’t know Pegasus, the Greens really have entered an alternative universe. The Green/Liberal wedging has to be subtle to be effective.

  33. Th0se 0n welfare shouldn’t be able to declare for debt anyway!

    The Government and Corporations put people on welfare in the beginning!

    This reminds me of the days of the vilification of people on welfare who were cheating the system (ACA, 60 minutes, One nation, liberals) etc were all joining in the fanfare.

  34. The G

    Daniel Andrews has been on an absolute blitz of the breakfast media programs, both TV and radio.

    Most of it was what we have been hearing over the last week.

    Although masks were mentioned a couple of times – there are no firm directions as yet, but don’t be surprised if masks are recommended in the locked down Victorian areas, given the amount of community transmission.

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