The Eden-Monaro by-election has naturally consumed my energies of late, and I’m continuing to follow the late count through the post below, although the result is no longer in doubt. There appears to be no Essential Research poll this week, which leaves me with the following to hang a new open thread off:
• A local environmental concern has published results of a uComms robo-poll of the Darwin area ahead of the Northern Territory election, to be held on August 22. Including responses to the forced-response follow-up for the 13% who were initially undecided, the poll records Labor on 39.3% and the Country Liberal Party on 31.0%, compared with 47.9% and 33.6% respectively in Darwin seats last time. The new Territory Alliance party of former CLP Chief Minister Terry Mills is on 13.7% and the Greens, who only ran in three seats last time, were on 7.2%. The poll was conducted on June 29 from a sample of 699.
• The determination of state and territory seat entitlements for the next parliamentary term was reached on Friday, with a conclusion that was long known in advance and discussed here at length: namely, that Victoria will gain another new seat while Western Australia and the Northern Territory will each lose one, bringing the total number of House of Representatives back to a more typical 150 from its current 151.
• The Australian National University’s regular post-election review of the federal election, entitled Morrison’s Miracle: The 2019 Australian Federal Election, contains 24 chapters of analysis of every facet of the campaign and result, and is available as a free download.
steve davis @ #2697 Sunday, July 12th, 2020 – 9:58 pm
I make a mean paper plane! 😆
C@t
As premier Andrews hss repeatedly stated over and over. He fully understands how everyone wants to just get back to doing the things they normally do.
And as the national cabinet has adopted a suppression strategy rather than elimination, until an effective treatment or vaccine, we have to get used to a covid normal.
a r says:
Sunday, July 12, 2020 at 9:52 pm
continuo @ #2666 Sunday, July 12th, 2020 – 9:19 pm
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?cid=rrpromo
He’s amazingly resilient to dropping below 40% approval.
Yes….but these days people are usually very wedded to their political affiliates. What is interesting is the surge in disapproval. If that is translated into votes he’s likely to lose. Trump is highly polarising. Last time he stood against an equally polarising figure. Biden is a lot more difficult to dislike than Clinton. I think he has an excellent chance.
The Masters of the Universe in the Eastern Suburbs of Sydney really do think they are immune:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-police-forced-to-shut-down-multiple-eastern-suburbs-parties-20200712-p55bef.html
Probably shouldn’t say anything as I’m not a regular commenter, but I find the snickering and backslapping over another poster’s decision to leave the blog as quite distasteful.
First they came for Pegasus….
Victoria @ #2702 Sunday, July 12th, 2020 – 10:06 pm
So we have to take seriously the fact that, as Helen Clark said, there probably won’t be a vaccine for two and a half years! Covid Normal until then.
C@t
I’d love the virus just to disappear in much the same way it presented itself.
A girl can dream
C@t
To think I used to be the milk monitor until tonight.
Victoria says:
Sunday, July 12, 2020 at 10:06 pm
C@t
As premier Andrews hss repeatedly stated over and over. He fully understands how everyone wants to just get back to doing the things they normally do.
And as the national cabinet has adopted a suppression strategy rather than elimination, until an effective treatment or vaccine, we have to get used to a covid normal.
The LibHeavy have never really had their hearts in the COVID strategy. The threat of chaos in the healthcare sector provoked them into action. As long as that threat exists they will go along with the States….but only reluctantly. They position themselves as standing for business as usual. But this is an obsolete position. COVID has changed everything whether they like it or not.
“ Ooh, and let me guess, the 60% of people who hate his guts are all nonvoting hippies living on a commune in California, right?”
Perhaps not. But if the same bunch of slack jawed yokels who ‘forgot’ to vote in the urban areas of the swing states for Hillary in 2016 similarly ‘forget’ to vote for sleepy Joe then Trump’s 40% approval rating looks very potent.
Spray says:
Sunday, July 12, 2020 at 10:07 pm
Probably shouldn’t say anything as I’m not a regular commenter, but I find the snickering and backslapping over another poster’s decision to leave the blog as quite distasteful.
First they came for Pegasus….
There’s been no back-slapping that I’ve noticed. Rather, various bludgers have appealed to her to resume her posts.
c @ #2711 Sunday, July 12th, 2020 – 10:14 pm
Yes, most have.
Others have issued comments such as “if you can’t stand the heat….”. Some have made great fun of their elevation to school bully status.
Deep down we all love our horse.
Spray
I genuinely figured that pegasus took a break from posting due to the Greens making
Total fools of themselves here in Melbourne.
Even Green supporters were pleading with Bandt and co to stop their silly posturing.
I do hope she continues to comment. We need all viewpoints.
A-E….I think the decisive factors will be voting behaviours if white women and of independents.
Last time, voters who disliked both Clinton and Trump aligned for Trump. But this time they will align against him.
I think Trump is a vote-repelling force. People will vote very strongly against him. The questions will be on turnout in the context of COVID and whether or not he can reverse his standing. He has very little time in which to do that.
Victoria @ #2714 Sunday, July 12th, 2020 – 10:20 pm
Vic,
We’ve seen Pegasus’s posts for many years. I find it difficult to believe that that would be a reason for her to stop posting. For one thing, I doubt that she even agrees with your premise.
Trump is cooked
Trump supports Joe Biden now he is wearing a mask.
Spray
Obviously it was for other reasons as per William’s post
According to the polls Trump has lost support among females, including those with no college education and who are in older age groups. These voters show up. They vote. Last time they queue up for Trump. This time they will either stay away or vote for Biden.
Trump is in trouble in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida and maybe also in North Carolina, Georgia and Texas.
If he’s at risk in Texas he’s stuffed.
I cannot imagine that Americans will re-elect someone so manifestly incompetent and out of touch.
Victoria
Im doing my 100 lines as we speak.
Spray @ #2712 Sunday, July 12th, 2020 – 10:17 pm
Piffle. I didn’t ‘elevate’ myself ‘to school bully status’, that’s a description you have sanctimoniously imposed on me. stevedavis and I were just trying to lighten up proceedings when all around had their po faces on.
Spray, as you say, you haven’t been around here long, so maybe it never came to your notice that I stoutly defended Pegasus when she was pilloried and abused by another poster here. It brought much opprobrium down on me, but as I am not afraid to call a spade a shovel when I saw it I came to her defense. So if you would kindly get some perspective before you wade in with your hobnail boots on again, it would be much appreciated.
Note well also that I have not said a thing either way about Pegasus tonight. It would be entirely hypocritical of me to do so, I realise that. Suffice to say that, anyone who thinks they can just come here day after day to diss the ALP for no good reason will be challenged. I think that’s fair. Others may beg to differ.
three conspiracy theorists walk into a bar.
You can’t tell me that’s a coincidence.
27!!!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=12347454
There are published polls that have asked swing voters whether they might consider voting for Trump. Overwhelmingly they’ve declared there is no way they’d do that. So opinion has hardened.
Trump’s going to try to change his tune. His willingness to wear a mask is a sign of that.
He knows he will be smashed if he cannot shift opinion.
C@t I’ve always thought you deserved a medal for that time you stood up for Pegasus. It was one of those rare moments of courage from the Age of Heroes. We all get great pleasure from hearing the deed retold again and again.
There was a very good article in The Washington Post the other day about the change in the nature of the makeup of the electorates of the Swing States in the US, with more African Americans and Hispanics moving there over the past few decades, mainly due to the cheaper housing and availability of jobs that others didn’t want to do. Which goes some way to explaining Trump’s attempts to reach out to the AA and Hispanic community. He needs their votes in the Swing States to make up for the women voters who are deserting him there.
nath,
🙄
@Cat,
I’ve been reading the blog for about ten years, so I’m aware of most of the ebb and flow of opinions, as well as the internecine battles that go on. I know which posters cop it, and which ones dish it out.
I’m usually a few hours behind, which is one of the reasons I don’t post. There are other reasons, of course, some of which you could glean if you were able to reflect on the disproportionate nature of your response to my comment.
Anyway, must go, it’s past my bedtime. Can’t get to sleep, must be these damned hobnail boots.
‘Last time, voters who disliked both Clinton and Trump aligned for Trump.’
Voters who disliked both Clinton and trump mainly stayed at home. A just about all of the Republican campaigning messaging intended.
C@t
Spray has just told you to “get fucked” in the nicest possible way!!
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Sunday, July 12, 2020 at 10:45 pm
‘Last time, voters who disliked both Clinton and Trump aligned for Trump.’
Voters who disliked both Clinton and trump mainly stayed at home. A just about all of the Republican campaigning messaging intended.
I’m pretty sure I’ve read polling results which say a majority of these voters supported Trump last time. There are also far fewer voters this time that dislike both candidates. Clinton was unpopular in a way that Biden is not.
There’s going to be 30,000 at the footy in WA next weekend. Can you all please tell us who is and who isn’t allowed to go to the footy in order to avoid any misunderstandings.
Thanks in advance.
Bucephalus says:
Sunday, July 12, 2020 at 10:52 pm
There’s going to be 30,000 at the footy in WA next weekend. Can you all please tell us who is and who isn’t allowed to go to the footy in order to avoid any misunderstandings.
Will the crowd be “distanced” ?
The stadium will hold 80k I think….
Proof that Newscorpse goes after Andrews:
Nick Tabagoff (Newscrap)
After a tough few days when coronavirus cases in his state soared, Victorian Premier Dan Andrews seems to have decided to make some friends in the Melbourne press gallery.
It would be fair to say it’s not often that “Chairman Dan” rushes to the defence of News Corp or its employees, especially Melbourne’s Herald Sun, which has been among the toughest examiners of his tenure.
steve davis @ #2730 Sunday, July 12th, 2020 – 10:46 pm
I’m used to it.
You see, I don’t have his superior blog analysis skills, so I guess I’ll just have to bow to his highness’ spray. 😉
Those with tickets, who will almost invariably be Dockers supporters. Its been on WA media all week.
Why do you ask such a stupid question while well knowing the answer?
Some good rain along the south coast of NSW, less so in the wider Eden Monaro electorate. The ever present drought.
Meanwhile
Michael W
@mpwoodhead
The US Marines who landed in Darwin just came from 2 bases in Japan’s Okinawa that are now locked down after dozens contract coronavirus https://scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3092804/two-us-marine-bases-japans-okinawa-locked-down-after-dozens?utm_source=Twitter via
@scmpnews
Bases locked down as dozens of US Marines in Okinawa get Covid-19
There are ‘strong doubts’ the US military has taken adequate measures to prevent the Covid-19 disease from spreading, Governor Denny Tamaki says.
scmp.com
Fremantle v West Coast Eagles
2020 Toyota AFL Premiership Season
Sunday 19 July 2020
Gates Open 2:30pm
Bounce Down 4:35pm
Following a recommendation from the WA Government, ticket sales for the RAC Derby have been temporarily suspended pending the Government’s review of the easing to Phase 5 restrictions.
Maybe the footy will be postponed or cancelled. Who knows? Actually, who really cares?
Yes, I know, mine is an equally stupid question.
This is what Newscorpses attitude to Smokos trip to the footy:
Steve Jackson (Newscrap)
What Morrison displayed on Saturday was leadership and loyalty.
He wasn’t just supporting his local rugby league team, he was supporting his community, and showing his fellow Australians it was safe for them to do so too.
Scott Morrison’s beer at the footy told the community they can feel safe.
That message has never been more important. Our communities are hurting.
Imagine if Andrews had took a trip to the footy at the weekend.
Steve Davis, that is unbelievable audacity on the part of Newscorp and it’s scribbler.
steve davis @ #2741 Sunday, July 12th, 2020 – 9:06 pm
That sounds to me like pure damage control after they discovered that the photo was a VERY bad look.
Spot on, Danama.
Wtf is this crapola.
Morrison goes to the rugby to send message to community that it is safe to do so.
Meanwhile premier berejiklian is saying that NSW is at the crossroads. Jebus.
”There’s going to be 30,000 at the footy in WA next weekend. Can you all please tell us who is and who isn’t allowed to go to the footy in order to avoid any misunderstandings.“
Presumably anyone who wants to go. I think that joining a crowd of 30,000 is a very bad idea right now, even in the relative safety of WA.
EDIT: ”Morrison goes to the rugby to send message to community that it is safe to do so.“
It’s even a worse idea in or “on the outskirts of” Sydney, which is probably not safe.
Victoria
And if Andrews had went to the footy,he should have been hanged from the nearest light tower.
Steve Davis.
Should have or would have?
Victoria
He should have been then and again and again if it was up to Newscorp.
C says:
Sunday, July 12, 2020 at 11:01 pm
Perhaps you could do a little research before making yourself foolish.
Optus Stadium seats 60,000.
The plan had been to have maximum capacity. The WA Government, despite no community infections, has deferred the move from 30,000 to 60,000.