How do you solve a problem like Mathias

Jockeying begins to fill Mathias Cormann’s Senate vacancy, plus a new poll of doubtful utility on the republic question.

No Newspoll this week, a three week schedule clearly being the deal now; presumably Essential Research will be along tomorrow morning, hopefully inclusive of the monthly leadership ratings (voting intention apparently being too much to ask). Beyond that, there is the following to relate:

• Mathias Cormann’s recent announcement that he will quit politics at the end of the year leaves the Western Australian Liberals with a Senate vacancy to fill. The West Australian ($) has identified three potential preselection nominees: Sam Calabrese, the state party director; Joe Francis, a minister in Colin Barnett’s government who lost his seat at the 2017 election; and Sherry Sufi, a party activist whose radicalism caused him to be dumped as candidate for Fremantle in 2016, but apparently times have changed. Also named initially was Paul Everingham, chief executive of the Chamber of Minerals and Energy, but he told the paper ($) on the weekend that he had decided not to run.

• The Sunday News Corp tabloids ($) reported on a YouGov poll on republicanism, which I’m guessing was commissioned by the Australian Republican Movement, because it posed the softball question of whether respondents wanted an “Australian as our head of state”. Put thus, the question reliably receives a favourable response, in this case 52% yes, 32% no and 16% don’t know. The poll was conducted from a large sample of “nearly 4500”, on field work dates not identified.

• Below is a podcast from Ben Raue of the Tally Room in which he and I discuss the Eden-Monaro by-election and looming federal redistributions.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

833 thoughts on “How do you solve a problem like Mathias”

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  1. Quasar
    Mandatory masks are essential to stop spread. But they make people cautious, so Scotty and Gladys disapprove.

    I agree….Scotty has done more to set back covid fight than most.
    He is of the Swedish school, if we judge his actions.

  2. It is one of the points where the Old Hume Highway meets the new Hume Highway (Sydney Melbourne Adelaide) and also close to the M7/M2 turn off which leads (kind of) to the expressway to Brisbane.

  3. I hope the business class, having easily manipulated Morrison’s ego, encouraging his opening of businesses after the initial lockdown, pull their collective heads in, and consider their future.
    Until a vaccine is developed, no business has a future.
    Morrison failed the test again.
    Thankfully, the state leaders, including Dan Andrews have stepped up.
    Contracted security business types, the domain of the LNP, the free enterprise genre, are the cause of the second wave rapidly spreading throughout Australia.
    The refusal of the business class and their media arms to acknowledge the pandemic in its entirety is the root cause of the second wave.
    A self-indulgent public, having elected a veneer of representation to form government, led by an accidental PM with a paper thin lining of integrity, look for a scapegoat.
    The rug beneath life in the lucky country has been removed to reveal a nasty residue of greed and self importance.
    Now what?

  4. Quasar

    I agree that Morrison and his media pals are undermining the Covid messages. I’m repeating myself, but as our Leader (cough) he could take a much stronger stance on the dangers of the virus and could bring the nation together to fight it. Just imagine how hopeless he’s be if this was a war. (Thinks: and it is.)

  5. @BreakfastNews
    · 1h
    .@paulwkennedy: What message do you think the Prime Minister was giving Australians by being at the football on the weekend?

    @JoshFrydenberg: That reflected the fact NSW and Victoria are at different stages. And good on him for being passionate about his country and his footy.

    Translation: I like being Treasurer so I can’t say anything bad about my friend Scotty.

  6. C@t, Quasar, ‘fess,
    If we can see what is happening with covid in NSW then so can Gladys and Scotty.
    But they are choosing a different response, one which favours certain businesses ( such as certain media companies who depend on footy, and other big donors), which means our lives are to be sacrificed.

    Edit: and Lizzie 🙂
    I missed reading your posts before doing mine.

  7. Maude Lynne @ #58 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 8:49 am

    C@t, Quasar, ‘fess,
    If we can see what is happening with covid in NSW then so can Gladys and Scotty.
    But they are choosing a different response, one which favours certain businesses ( such as certain media companies who depend on footy, and other big donors), which means our lives are to be sacrificed.

    And villifying the workers at those businesses for not wanting to work and maybe catch the virus, as Craig Laundy did.

  8. ”What is so special about that pub in Casula that everyone seems to go there?“

    It’s a big pub. It’s a prominent local land mark and has been for decades. In the 1960s it was on be on the edge of Sydney’s built up area at the cross roads of the routes to the country towns Campbelltown (long since swallowed up by Sydney) and Camden.

  9. It’s all well and good to ask 1000 people who attended pub
    What about all their contacts during this time.
    The virus has a 5 to 6 day incubation period.

  10. C
    Neither masks nor gloves are recommended by the NSW CMO.
    He is practising social distancing in the image above.
    Morrison does not have to spend his ENTIRE leave with his wife and kids.
    Prime ministers should be able to take leave without being sniped, IMO.

  11. Interesting that the photo poroti posted of Morrison at the rugby league is completely different to the one in The Australian and the footage aired on Insiders yesterday that showed people bunched up around him.

  12. A few million Australians $750 better off today:

    From 13 July, Centrelink will start issuing the second $750 Economic Support Payment (ESP) to eligible people.

    This is part of the Australian Government’s financial support for people affected by coronavirus.

    The second ESP is an additional payment if you’re both:

    living in Australia and
    get an eligible payment or concession card on 10 July 2020.

    You may get the second Economic Support payment if you’re living in Australia and get 1 of the following on 10 July 2020:

    Age Pension
    Bereavement Allowance
    Carer Allowance
    Carer Payment
    Commonwealth Seniors Health Card
    Disability Support Pension
    Double Orphan Pension
    Family Tax Benefit A
    Family Tax Benefit B
    Pensioner Concession Card.

  13. News Breakfast
    @BreakfastNews
    · 17m

    Federal Education Minister @DanTehanWannon says he doesn’t have the exact number of Victorian students and teachers that have tested positive to coronavirus, but the medical advice remains that it’s OK for VCE students to go to schools if they follow the right protocols.

  14. ‘Victoria says:
    Monday, July 13, 2020 at 8:58 am

    It’s all well and good to ask 1000 people who attended pub
    What about all their contacts during this time.
    The virus has a 5 to 6 day incubation period.’

    The Virus neither forgives nor forgets. Humans have trouble with both.

  15. boerwar @ #67 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 8:59 am

    C
    Neither masks nor gloves are recommended by the NSW CMO.
    He is practising social distancing in the image above.
    Morrison does not have to spend his ENTIRE leave with his wife and kids.
    Prime ministers should be able to take leave without being sniped, IMO.

    Zero social distancing.

    And we should not wear masks and/or gloves until the NSW CMO says so? I thought Morrison could have at least set an example. Apparently you don’t think that should be one of his duties.

  16. Re: The Footy….. it is the double standards and hyposcrisy. Imagine if Andrews went for a boozy night out at the footy? Or Gillard had done that?
    Didnt Police Chief Christine Nixon get destroyed for having a restaurant meal during the bushfires?

  17. Regarding the PM at the football, he doesn’t seem to be doing anything specifically wrong there. Certainly joining a crowd is not a choice I’d be making now, although the PM wouldn’t have to jostle with the hoi poloi. Is he giving a good example? Maybe it’s the sort of example that supports his mates. I wonder how the Prime-ministerial attendance at the footy would have been treated by the usual suspects had it been Julia Gillard or Kevin Rudd.

    For my part I’ll be going back into semi lockdown, given there’s no knowing what will happen in the next week or so. On the other hand, what happened a week ago is already locked in and we’ll find out soon.

  18. Not sure about others but I’m trying to walk a fine line between careful and alarmist, especially with my offspring.
    Seeing that most of our herd is conformist means that I’m the one that stands out , feeling like someone wearing odd -coloured socks. Despite that and at risk of being zealous, my offspring will be receiving fabric masks in the mail….thanks to the PBer who linked the website (Single Mums ) and just hope the denim ones will appeal to my Melbourne grandsons.
    Goll,
    Well said….worth sharing.

  19. Prof Samantha Thomas
    @Doc_Samantha
    ·
    34m
    There has been a strange lack of messaging about COVID aimed at young people. Youth have been involved in designing some amazing public education campaigns in other areas of public health. Time to get creative and get them involved!!!

  20. Dr Chant also says they are closer to finding the source with links to Melbourne identified.

    I argue that the Border should have been closed a week earlier, although admittedly interstate truckies have exemptions

  21. Torchbearer @ #75 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 7:08 am

    Re: The Footy….. it is the double standards and hyposcrisy. Imagine if Andrews went for a boozy night out at the footy? Or Gillard had done that?
    Didnt Police Chief Christine Nixon get destroyed for having a restaurant meal during the bushfires?

    That the media personality class can simultaneously hold power to account in Andrews and defend everything the PM does, including deliberately running dishonest propaganda and interference for him is the real problem. Yeah all PM’s need time off, and yes power should be held to account, both those things can be true and the pathetic corrupt media in Australia still be the problem.

  22. Steve777

    He had just told us how urgent was the need for him to take time off for “Jen and the kids”. Who knew that meant getting on the turps at the football without them ? 😆

  23. Dan Andrews consistently says that the PM backs him by assenting to any requests for help. I haven’t yet heard Morrison say anything positive about Andrews. Perhaps I missed it.

  24. lizzie @ #85 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 9:20 am

    Dan Andrews consistently says that the PM backs him by assenting to any requests for help. I haven’t yet heard Morrison say anything positive about Andrews. Perhaps I missed it.

    The fact that Morrison has refused to criticise Andrews, when given the opportunity by reporters, is construed as support.

  25. Caroline Overington in The Oz did not think it was a good look for Scotty

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/scott-morrison-enjoying-a-beer-at-the-footy-while-victorians-grapple-with-covid-lockdown-is-not-a-good-look/news-story/26b7fc60c48ef23664523f9e4a1367a8

    She said:

    Just when you’re starting to think he hasn’t put a foot wrong he goes and puts his foot in it.

    His scarf in it.
    His plastic cup of beer in it.
    You’ll know by now that Scott Morrison went to the football on Saturday night to cheer on the Sharks.

    The pictures are everywhere.

    He’s in a crowd.

    He’s not wearing a mask.

    He’s whooping it up, cheering on his team, because, well, I don’t know, because we’re all Victorians now?

    And here is another photo of scarf waving:
    https://twitter.com/mariekehardy/status/1281859348021473280

  26. Boerwar

    There was a post on community page my daughter follows.

    It was re posted on several adjoining community pages.

    Anyhoo it was from a young guy who is member of local cricket club.

    He wanted to let everyone know that he and a couple of friends got together before the lockdown and watched footy. They were actually even social distancing whilst doing so. He and friends have the virus and have managed to pass it on to the families and friends. This all while initially having no symptoms whatsoever.
    And of course as has been reported over time, each of them are suffering in different ways. Some not so much and some not so well at all.

    The message was that this virus is not to be mucked around with.

  27. andrew@mercadotv.com.au
    @andrewmercado
    ·
    38m
    Great to hear three white blonde women sticking up for the PM just now
    Especially the posh one saying “one of the things we love about ScoMo is that he’s sooooo relateable”
    Absolutely vomitous
    @sunriseon7

    🙂

  28. Morrison shows amazing enthusiasm for a game which he treated with distain and didn’t even understand 10 years ago. If it wasn’t for his re-imagining exercise after his move to ‘The Shire’ upon winning his preselection for Cook with 8 votes (but they were the best 8 votes: even Donald couldn’t have gotten a better 8 votes. Those 8 votes were awesome), then SfM would have been at the Rugger bugger game at Bellevue Hill last Saturday with the rest of the Range Rover Sports set.

  29. Torchbearer @ #75 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 7:08 am

    Re: The Footy….. it is the double standards and hyposcrisy. Imagine if Andrews went for a boozy night out at the footy? Or Gillard had done that?
    Didnt Police Chief Christine Nixon get destroyed for having a restaurant meal during the bushfires?

    I suppose it highlights that Andrews as a State Premier has an active role in the crisis, while PM Morrison, taking holidays and going to the footy, does not.

  30. This really makes me cross. Someone on a guaranteed income should shut up.

    Trudy McIntosh
    @TrudyMcIntosh
    · 2h
    Labor MP Joel Fitzgibbon defends Morrison going to the NRL: “We can’t all be locked down in misery because people are doing it tough elsewhere.”

  31. C@tmomma @ #87 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 9:21 am

    lizzie @ #85 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 9:20 am

    Dan Andrews consistently says that the PM backs him by assenting to any requests for help. I haven’t yet heard Morrison say anything positive about Andrews. Perhaps I missed it.

    The fact that Morrison has refused to criticise Andrews, when given the opportunity by reporters, is construed as support.

    As commented previously Andrews did not partcipate in the pile on to Morrison over the Hawaii Holiday matter. Rather, he got on with working with him regarding that natural disaster.

    My understanding is that Morrison and Andrews like and respect each other and are co-operative in most things around the pandemic.

    Morrison has returned the favour by not indulging in personal criticisms of the Premier Andrews.

    I think this behaviour is a compliment to both men and demonstrates the sort of leadership the community is demanding.

  32. Greensborough Growler @ #97 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 7:32 am

    C@tmomma @ #87 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 9:21 am

    lizzie @ #85 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 9:20 am

    Dan Andrews consistently says that the PM backs him by assenting to any requests for help. I haven’t yet heard Morrison say anything positive about Andrews. Perhaps I missed it.

    The fact that Morrison has refused to criticise Andrews, when given the opportunity by reporters, is construed as support.

    As commented previously Andrews did not partcipate in the pile on to Morrison over the Hawaii Holiday matter. Rather, he got on with working with him regarding that natural disaster.

    My understanding is that Morrison and Andrews like and respect each other and are co-operative in most things around the pandemic.

    Morrison has returned the favour by not indulging in personal criticisms of the Premier Andrews.

    I think this behaviour is a compliment to both men and demonstrates the sort of leadership the community is demanding.

    Morrison has outsourced his hits on Andrews, he should get zero credit.

  33. GG

    Not sure Andrews and Morrison like each other at all. Andrews is a pragmatist. And Morrison an opportunist.

  34. WWP

    Yep. He outsourced his hits very early in the piece when they were ranting about opening the economy and schools in early May.

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