Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Scott Morrison records another personal best approval rating, as Newspoll maintains its stable-to-a-fault record on voting intention.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has the Coalition’s lead at 51-49, unchanged on three weeks ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is steady at 42%, Labor up a point to 35%, the Greens down one to 11% and One Nation down one to 3%. Scott Morrison records another personal best on leader ratings, his approval up two to 68% and disapproval down two to 27%, while Anthony Albanese is now at 42% on both approval and disapproval, which are respectively up by one and two. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 58-26, out from 56-26. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1521.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

810 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 12 of 17
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  1. We are in an economic depression. The real unemployment rate is currently 25 percent of the labour force. 3.2 million people are unemployed, under-employed, or marginally attached to the labour force. 2.6 million are unemployed or under-employed and 0.6 million are marginally attached. This is an insane amount of suffering and wasted productive resources.

    http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=45238

  3. Odd that Buce celebrates Liberal policy failure on energy on a daily basis.
    Recent bout of unemployment changing perspectives ?

  5. Nicholas
    That isn’t an economic depression because many of those jobs are only temporarily lost because of various restrictions.

  6. We have rats nibbling at our foundations.

    Ewart Dave
    @davidbewart
    ·
    7m
    ray hadley told all who could listen that Shaoquett Moselmanes wife is chinese and a migration agent . she is Japanese born and a naturalized australian #auspol

  8. lizzie @ #555 Monday, June 29th, 2020 – 5:41 pm

    We have rats nibbling at our foundations.

    Ewart Dave
    @davidbewart
    ·
    7m
    ray hadley told all who could listen that Shaoquett Moselmanes wife is chinese and a migration agent . she is Japanese born and a naturalized australian #auspol

    One thing we know for sure, Ray Hadley is a grub!

  10. Mehreen Faruqi
    @MehreenFaruqi
    ·
    9h
    Women account for more than two-thirds of students in courses for which fees will more than double under the government’s university fee & funding overhaul.

    They will pay billions more in course fees and go further into student debt

  11. Nicholas @ #551 Monday, June 29th, 2020 – 5:31 pm

    We are in an economic depression. The real unemployment rate is currently 25 percent of the labour force. 3.2 million people are unemployed, under-employed, or marginally attached to the labour force. 2.6 million are unemployed or under-employed and 0.6 million are marginally attached. This is an insane amount of suffering and wasted productive resources.

    http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=45238

    The measurement process doesn’t change. Statistical series are about consistent data collected in the same way.

    Any numnat can tell you that people receiving Jobseeker are not all working. However, the point of that exercise is to provide income in times of employment uncertainty.

    The point of any measurement series is to measure real change in data collected in a consistent method..

    Carping about underemployment etc is just grandstanding. The Government’s response to any situation is based on trends.

  12. GG
    The focus on the so called underemployed is typical of the policy lazy because they are in a far better position than the long term unemployed.

  14. a. v.

    re France local elections – thanks for the links.

    In Victoria the political duopoly is in lock step to stifle democracy at the local government election. They voted together for single member wards and postal ballots only which favour them to the detriment of diversity, women, minorities, independents and minor party representation.

    It was a move aimed at eradicating, amongst others, Greens councillors at the local level, particularly in the inner councils.

    The ALP strategy is to run endorsed candidates to build its brand from the grassroots up. However, in the light of the industrial branch stacking expose, its brand might be a tad tarnished.

  15. alfred venison @ #512 Monday, June 29th, 2020 – 5:08 pm

    PARIS — A Green wave swept through France in local elections on Sunday, seizing major cities such as Strasbourg, Lyon and Marseille for the first time, while Emmanuel Macron had a very bad night.

    The French president’s centrist party, La République En Marche, founded less than five years ago, failed to make inroads against long-established incumbents from traditional parties, who have often played an important role at local level in tackling the coronavirus crisis.

    The green sweep also raises questions about the credibility of Macron’s plans, trailed by aides, to pivot to an environmental and social agenda for the remainder of his term. The Greens wasted no time in claiming they were the only party that could be taken seriously on the environment. Macron’s party, meanwhile, was left defending its decision to form alliances with conservatives in the elections.
    https://www.1news.info/5-french-election-takeaways-as-greens-win-macron-stumbles-741547
    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/28/french-greens-conquer-major-cities-in-local-elections-343692

    A green wave swept across France on Sunday as environmental parties took control of a group of big cities like Marseille, Lyon, Strasbourg and Bordeaux, according to estimates by Ipsos and its partners.In Paris, socialist mayor Anne Hidalgo – approved by the Greens – was re-elected with 48% of the vote, according to estimates.
    https://www.fr24news.com/a/2020/06/local-elections-in-france-green-wave-as-environmentalists-win-the-main-french-cities-according-to-exit-polls.html

    France was swept by a green wave on Sunday as ecology candidates won a number of major victories in the country’s local elections.

    Early results suggested the biggest winners of the delayed vote would be the green party, Europe Ecologie Les Verts (EELV), while the election delivered the predicted blow to Emmanuel Macron’s La République en Marche (LREM) party, which has failed to take root locally since it was founded four years ago.

    In Paris, the current mayor and favourite, Anne Hidalgo – who has been engaged in a bitter three-way battle – emerged with a large majority, polling just under half the votes cast in the capital.

    Hidalgo, a Socialist, who is supported by EELV and the Communists, made tackling climate change and pollution the key element of her election programme. After her victory was announced, Hidalgo, in charge at City Hall for the last six years, said voters had chosen to make Paris more “ecological, social and humanist”
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/28/voters-stay-away-from-second-round-french-local-elections

    Greta is cutting through…

  16. It’s simply a nitpicking response without ethical or economic integrity.

    Do you think the underemployed share your sentiments?

  17. Peg
    The underemployed are in a better position than the unemployed are so It isn’t where governments should be focused.

  20. This problem was noted by community leaders more than a month ago who were trying to plug the gap in communication.
    ——–

    Alexandra Grey is a postdoctoral research fellow at the University of Sydney.

    Australia’s multilingual communities are missing out on vital coronavirus information

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-29/coronavirus-multilingual-australia-missing-out-covid-19-info/12403510

    Victoria’s chief health officer has admitted the Government did not properly engage with linguistically diverse communities about COVID-19 in the runup to Melbourne’s recent spike in cases.

    Professor Brett Sutton last week said:

    “We know that there are some migrant communities, recent migrants or culturally and linguistically diverse communities, who are overrepresented now with some of our new cases […] It’s our obligation as government to reach those people. It’s not their fault if we’re not going in with appropriate engagement.”

    This issue is not confined to Victoria. My research has indicated that linguistically diverse communities in New South Wales are likewise not receiving official coronavirus advice.
    :::
    Victoria’s spike is not the first indication that official coronavirus health communications in languages other than English have been ineffective.

    A small study in Melbourne early in the pandemic indicated people speaking languages other than English were not receiving sufficient, reliable information.

    Concerns have also been raised nationally.

  21. Steve777
    “What Don Watson seems to be saying is that Donald Trump is not the problem, it’s the fact that nearly half of Americans regard him as a good of at least acceptable President.”

    Trump’s current approval currently sits at about 40%. Not great, but not diabolically bad. Disapproval is around 56%.

    In increasing order of difficulty, Biden has to sit tight, stay alive, and keep gaffes to a minimum.

  22. That Victoria started topping the daily new case charts on 2 May (when in its high level shutdown) and has done so almost continuously since then is the key fact to be analysed.

    Not lifting of restrictions in places with little if any community transmission, not the Covid App and not pronouncements of NC or Morrison.

    The graph since 26 May

    https://www.covid19data.com.au/states-and-territories

    The graph since the beginning

    https://infogram.com/1p0lp9vmnqd3n9te63x3q090ketnx57evn5?live

  23. The G

    Of the 2,099 cases in Victoria, 271 are confirmed cases of community transmission. That’s 13% of the total.

  24. Pegasus
    “It was a move aimed at eradicating, amongst others, Greens councillors at the local level, particularly in the inner councils.”

    No more Greens? Sorry, I fail to see the downside.

  25. Pegasus @ #570 Monday, June 29th, 2020 – 6:14 pm

    This problem was noted by community leaders more than a month ago who were trying to plug the gap in communication.
    ——–

    Alexandra Grey is a postdoctoral research fellow at the University of Sydney.

    Australia’s multilingual communities are missing out on vital coronavirus information

    <irony>

    Well, thank goodness we are such world leaders in multiculturalism!

    </irony>

  26. “Mexicanbeemersays:
    Monday, June 29, 2020 at 6:10 pm
    Peg
    The underemployed are in a better position than the unemployed are so It isn’t where governments should be focused.”

    Is it beyond them to chew gum and walk at the same time?

  27. Pegasus

    [This issue is not confined to Victoria. My research has indicated that linguistically diverse communities in New South Wales are likewise not receiving official coronavirus advice.]

    How could you not know without being an incurious hermit?

  28. Under-employment has been a major and constant problem in Australia since the early 1980s recession. Anyone who claims that under-employment is a “so-called” problem is clearly ignorant of economic policy and probably shouldn’t be commenting on it. Or they should at least be adopting a posture of humility instead of pontificating about a topic about which they are ignorant and incurious.

  29. From unreliable memory my impression is Victoria was well on track until the Cedar Meats outbreak. After that, not so good.

  30. Governments cannot address heat as a cause of bushfires so must focus on managing fuel loads instead, the Liberal candidate for Eden-Monaro, Fiona Kotvojs, has argued in a submission to the bushfire royal commission.

    Kotvojs, who has a history of downplaying the human contribution to global heating, also argued that bushfire management should be the sole responsibility of state governments, despite Scott Morrison accepting during the summer bushfires the public expects the federal government to play a greater role.

    Kotvojs and her husband, Alan Burdon, made the submission in April, just nine days before the resignation of former Labor MP Mike Kelly set up the Eden Monaro byelection.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/29/eden-monaro-liberal-candidate-says-reducing-fuel-is-the-only-way-to-manage-bushfires?CMP=share_btn_tw

  31. Nicholas
    Nice snipe and in future address the person by name and you quite often show your ignorance but i accept that you are not qualified or experienced in the areas you regularly cut & paste comments about.

  32. ‘alfred venison says:
    Monday, June 29, 2020 at 5:08 pm

    ‘…
    Hidalgo, a Socialist, who is supported by EELV and the Communists, made tackling climate change and pollution the key element of her election programme. After her victory was announced, Hidalgo, in charge at City Hall for the last six years, said voters had chosen to make Paris more “ecological, social and humanist”
    …’
    Inner Urbs pseudo environmental clap trap. There is no way of making Paris even remotely ‘ecological’. There are simply far too many people crowded into a small area. They could theoretically start by banning the 30 million tourists a year but the Paris economy would collapse.

    As for ‘social’ and ‘humanist’ I look forward to the Parisians proper finally acknowledging that the citizens of the Banlieux are actually Parisian rather than denizens of dormitory suburbs populated in significant part by islamic majorities who are systematically excluded from the Real Thing.

  33. Labor is exploiting Morrison’s refusal to announce changes to JobSeeker and JobKeeper before the E-M byelection. This must be putting pressure on the Liberal candidate.

    ACT Chief Minister Andrew Barr says Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s refusal to release the findings of a review of the JobKeeper before voters in Eden-Monaro go to the polls on Saturday sends a message that something “sinister is at play”.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6811210/barr-calls-on-pm-to-release-jobkeeper-review-ahead-of-eden-monaro-byelection/?cs=14350#gsc.tab=0

  34. Nicholas @ #578 Monday, June 29th, 2020 – 6:23 pm

    Under-employment has been a major and constant problem in Australia since the early 1980s recession. Anyone who claims that under-employment is a “so-called” problem is clearly ignorant of economic policy and probably shouldn’t be commenting on it. Or they should at least be adopting a posture of humility instead of pontificating about a topic about which they are ignorant and incurious.

    Which has probably been the best time economically for Australia ever.

    Under employment has many causes. So, how about you actually be specific rather than general.

    I reckon, in the end, you’re an advocate for entrenched poverty through creating incentives to keep people dependent on Government handouts.

    Your whole existence seems to depend on creating a client base of perpetual losers while telling them you’re the answer to their problems.

    A left wing Donald Trump!

  35. Labor is exploiting Morrison’s refusal to announce changes to JobSeeker and JobKeeper before the E-M byelection. This must be putting pressure on the Liberal candidate.

    If it gets any worse Morrison will have to call in some favours at the ADF.

  36. boerwar @ #559 Monday, June 29th, 2020 – 6:30 pm

    ‘alfred venison says:
    Monday, June 29, 2020 at 5:08 pm

    ‘…
    Hidalgo, a Socialist, who is supported by EELV and the Communists, made tackling climate change and pollution the key element of her election programme. After her victory was announced, Hidalgo, in charge at City Hall for the last six years, said voters had chosen to make Paris more “ecological, social and humanist”
    …’
    Inner Urbs pseudo environmental clap trap. There is no way of making Paris even remotely ‘ecological’. There are simply far too many people crowded into a small area. They could theoretically start by banning the 30 million tourists a year but the Paris economy would collapse.

    As for ‘social’ and ‘humanist’ I look forward to the Parisians proper finally acknowledging that the citizens of the Banlieux are actually Parisian rather than denizens of dormitory suburbs populated in significant part by islamic majorities who are systematically excluded from the Real Thing.

    tut tut goes the old conservative 😆

  37. a r says:
    Monday, June 29, 2020 at 5:16 pm

    “Try that around the summer solstice instead of the winter one.”

    That’s a lovely sentiment but what’s going to happen in winter when the Sun doesn’t shine for very long and there often days with very low wind? There’s no storage that economically can replace fossil fuels and in it’s uneconomical to have massive excess capacity unused.

  38. ‘Shellbell says:
    Monday, June 29, 2020 at 6:23 pm

    Pegasus

    [This issue is not confined to Victoria. My research has indicated that linguistically diverse communities in New South Wales are likewise not receiving official coronavirus advice.]

    How could you not know without being an incurious hermit?’

    Most of my parent’s generation of migrants (a) learned english and (b) kept themselves informed in the broader sense. OTOH, one of my Aunts steadfastly refused to learn english.

    ‘Why?’ I asked her. She said there was almost nothing in the news that ever made her feel good. Quite the reverse, in fact. She would rather not know.

    There are now communities in Australia were most of the communications happen in languages other than english. If the various health authorities have not set up tailored comms pathways into those communities then I would not at all be surprised about any infection consequences.

  39. Blobbit
    A government can help the underemployed but when a person has a job and wants more hours then they are in a better position than an unemployed person is. I know that is repeating but a person working 20 hours a week but wants 30 hours a week is not facing the same barriers has someone who hasn’t worked for six months.

  41. Bucephalus

    I find it hard to believe that any part of WA has less sunlight than my shaded valley in southern Victoria, yet I have been surprised (and gratified) to see how much solar energy is produced by my small system even on dull or rainy days. I think you should revise your beliefs.

  42. “Mexicanbeemersays:
    Monday, June 29, 2020 at 6:36 pm
    Blobbit
    I am not saying don’t help the underemployed but when a person has a job and wants more hours then they are in a better position than an unemployed person is.”

    Sure. I don’t have a problem with that, but the person who is underemployed may not be that much better off if they’re in a low paying role and really need those extra hours.

    A large amount of under employment is also a good indicator that there are problems with economy, which it’s the government’s job to address with its macro policy.

  43. That’s a lovely sentiment but what’s going to happen in winter when the Sun doesn’t shine for very long and there often days with very low wind? There’s no storage that economically can replace fossil fuels

    Certainly not when you take into account the ever increasing cost of climate change.
    A functioning national grid that integrates widespread renewables with storage will do nicely. You can throw in some small modular reactors in safe National Party seats.

    Having a job makes less economical sense than stealing – unless there is a cost placed on that theft.

  45. Blobbit
    By being better off i am referring to the ease of finding a new job.

    Absolutely the government is responsible for the economy.

  47. Sylvia Hale is a long-standing member of The Greens NSW.

    Eggs Over Albanese: Labor’s Green Ham-Fisted Attempt To Distract On Stacking

    https://newmatilda.com/2020/06/29/eggs-over-albanese-labors-green-ham-fisted-attempt-to-distract-on-branch-stacking/

    Anthony Albanese’s attempts to distract attention from his party’s internal factional troubles are as see-through as they are ridiculous. Sylvia Hale from Greens NSW weighs in.

    As any factional powerbroker can attest, when the shit is about to hit, reach for the fan. It’s a useful two-pronged tactic because it diverts attention from the issue at hand and simultaneously smears your opponents.

    Anthony Albanese is a dab hand at this. When questioned last week about branch stacking across the ALP, he responded…
    :::
    Albanese’s claim is untrue. Indeed, given GNSW’s structure and constitution, it’s difficult to see how a malign, well-resourced stack could ever succeed.

  48. Greens’ Hale should focus on the main game.

    In the absence of a population and migration policy, all Greens’ claims about the consequences of their other policies are crapulous.

  49. Playing with the COVID19data.com people’s figures it is apparent that at the end of April the curve became flat for all states except Victoria where there has been a continuing and accelerating rise.
    Victoria was performing less tests per population than all the other states until the first week of May.
    They missed the boat

  50. Time for a “Green New Deal” in Australia?

    https://johnmenadue.com/green-new-deal-australia-by-frank-stilwell/#more-47843

    The Greens are already strongly on board. The ALP is currently trying to play both sides of the street by supporting coal mining exports and the Adani mine, while ramping up the rhetoric on climate change action. It would also find it hard to formally adopt anything with a Green title, given the inter-party rivalries – but it is the contents, not the label, that ultimately matter. The ALP’s need for a coherent alternative to the Coalition will become increasingly evident as the next federal election approaches with the economic effects of the Coronavirus crisis still lingering.

    A political program offering jobs, greater economic security, a more equitable society and real action on climate change is potentially inspiring in this context. This is not to say that it is free of tensions – what ever is? – but, faced with the choice between a conservative Coalition promising an elusive ‘return to normal’ and an Opposition united in offering a Green New Deal (appropriately re-named, if necessary), we could see the ousting of the Coalition at long last.

    To make it happen, the development of a broad, popular movement for change – and plenty of local action – would be necessary. Regarded in this way, a Green New Deal strategy – for jobs and the environment – is a potential game-changer.

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