Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

The latest Newspoll records little change on three weeks ago, with Scott Morrison dominating on personal ratings but the Coalition enjoying only a slender lead on voting intention.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 42% and Labor to 34%. The Greens are up two to 12% and One Nation are down one to 4%. Scott Morrison’s approval is unchanged at 66%, and his disapproval is down one to 29%; Anthony Albanese is respectively down three to 41% and up one to 38%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is now 56-26, out from 56-29. The BludgerTrack leadership trends (see also on the sidebar) have been updated with these numbers. The poll was conducted online from Wednesday to Saturday, from a sample of 1512.

UPDATE: The Australian has helpfully published a PDF display of all the poll results, including for a suite of questions on coronavirus and its foreign policy implications. Opinion was divided as to whether the World Health Organisation (34% positive, 32% negative) and United Nations (23% positive, 21% negative) had had a beneficial impact on the crisis, but quite a lot clearer in relation to “Xi Jinping and the Chinese government” (6% positive, 72% negative) and “Donald Trump and the United States government” (9% positive, 79% negative). Further results are available through the link.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,741 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. ”Mr Anderson, who is due to outline the ABC’s new five-year plan next month…”

    Unless the Coalition are voted out next time, there must be strong doubt that the ABC as we know it will exist at the end of the 5 years.

  2. PeeBee @ #1005 Tuesday, June 9th, 2020 – 5:01 pm

    Electricity prices are highest in SA because they have no old coal fired power stations that have 30-50 year coal supply contracts. The price of coal is cheap, and the capital to build them was provided by the state governments years ago.

    Replace all these old clunkers with new coal powered electricity generators with new coal contracts and SA would be the cheapest state to generate electricity.

    Full stream ahead and bugger the environment!

  3. Those people who want to copy NZ let’s look at their tax rates.
    No tax free thresholds.
    Earn $18k in NZ even if pension pay $2K in tax. Zero here.
    Max tax rate is 33%.
    GST rate 15% with rent being only exemption. Fresh food is taxed.
    Certainly a lot more rich friendly than ours.

  4. BOB LYNCH @ #1056 Tuesday, June 9th, 2020 – 4:10 pm

    Those people who want to copy NZ let’s look at their tax rates.
    No tax free thresholds.
    Earn $18k in NZ even if pension pay $2K in tax. Zero here.
    Max tax rate is 33%.
    GST rate 15% with rent being only exemption. Fresh food is taxed.
    Certainly a lot more rich friendly than ours.

    It is not the most progressive of tax systems, but they do get 3 – 4% more as a proportion of GDP than Australia. They have used that additional revenue to provide better social and public goods, and to avoid big deficits the ridiculous Howard Costello tax cuts have caused Australia.

    Part historic and geographic accident but they also have a mostly renewable power system.

    By no means perfect, but much much smarter than us over the last 30 years.

  5. Cud

    The Donors are trying to restrict Biden from going left. The population has other ideas.

    With the Filibuster nuked the GOP won’t be able to stop them. Buttigieg and Biden seem to get on well. That means change at the Supreme Court.
    The GOP going with Trump was always the desperate gamble of a losing side.

    For a party that was proud of “The New World Order” rejecting that and out isolating the isolationist Democrats was always self destructive.

  6. “The Donors are trying to restrict Biden from going left”

    And may well succeed. And even in power the Republicans don’t know how to be anything other than nasty, vindictivie and obstructive. Even if Biden gets a Senate majority, is that going to last past the mid terms.

    Not to mention the ferocious lobbying and advertising that will be thrown at Biden if he dares to go New-Deal-ish… I don’t know if he has the motivation/drive to bother once that happens.

  7. Cud Chewer @ #1063 Tuesday, June 9th, 2020 – 4:23 pm

    “The Donors are trying to restrict Biden from going left”

    And may well succeed. And even in power the Republicans don’t know how to be anything other than nasty, vindictivie and obstructive. Even if Biden gets a Senate majority, is that going to last past the mid terms.

    Not to mention the ferocious lobbying and advertising that will be thrown at Biden if he dares to go New-Deal-ish… I don’t know if he has the motivation/drive to bother once that happens.

    They didn’t put in all that money and effort to get Biden just to have him turn into an AoC type. They expect value for money and there is no reason to think for a second they won’t get it.

  8. WeWantPaul

    They bought them in a bulk order from a bridge seller in Sydney. The bustard only sent the left lanes 🙂

  9. I posted this before, but maybe some of you missed it. Shows how much they (don’t) care.

    Nobody in the Coalition party room meeting in Parliament House today mentioned the protests on the weekend.

  10. The good part is November is not that far away.

    We will know for certain.
    Trump has tried some really desperate stuff in the last two weeks.
    Now Biden has increased his lead. To the point if the election had been held today the Democrats would have all two elected branches of government.

    The climate pressure will only get stronger and the fossil fuel industry is already starting to fail economically.

    Edit: This is going to change politics worldwide very rapidly.

  11. Your house is irrelevant to industry power needs and it along with all the other highly subsidised inefficient and unreliable solar and wind electricity producers have caused massive increases in power prices.

    Another failure to distinguish correlation from causality.

    In fact high power prices caused increased uptake of renewables.

  12. lizzie @ #1027 Tuesday, June 9th, 2020 – 5:35 pm

    C@t

    The IPA is winning.

    Big time.
    We’re getting to the stage where the best we can hope for is we change the Liberal party for the better. What is the alternative?
    It’s not not like there’s another party with a big enough membership base to take it up to the Liberals. No, the best we can do now is make the most of what we’ve got.
    Eat shit for long enough and eventually it tastes like vanilla.
    Make that a double scoop Scrooter, Mundo is real hungry.

  13. There is direct positive relationship globally that shows that the greater the amount of wind and solar power in a system the greater retail cost of power. The prime example in Australia is South Australia with the highest amount of renewables and the highest prices for retail power in Australia and sometimes the world.

    Correlation is not causality – in fact higher power costs cause higher renewables uptake, not the reverse

  14. lizzie @ #1067 Tuesday, June 9th, 2020 – 4:34 pm

    I posted this before, but maybe some of you missed it. Shows how much they (don’t) care.

    Nobody in the Coalition party room meeting in Parliament House today mentioned the protests on the weekend.

    Not even surprising they are the very worst people. Morrison is a slighly smarter Trump who hasn’t had Trump’s successes, but has had all his failures. Like with Trump it is our society elevating the very worst people to the pinnacle.

  15. No, there hasn’t. Most of the arguments I have seen is the EU would be opposed because there are more than ten different separatist movements in EU Nations and as such member nations don’t want to encourage their own internal separatists.

    The EU holds the sovereignty of member states to be absolute and inviolable, and the EU thus refuses to support separatist movements within member states, and supports the member states in opposing separatist movements within themselves.

    The UK has removed itself as a member. The EU therefore has nothing to say about any separation that might occur in a non-member

    The EU will consider all outside states applying for membership in exactly the same way, without reference to the historical fact that an applicant was once part of a state that was once a member.

  16. While great-uncle Joe has the sincerity of a pine nut, he’s nonetheless perhaps the only one who’s capable of freeing the free world of the nutcase incumbent(?). He may look like a Madame Tussaud’s waxwork, but it’s not him who counts as much as his running mate.

  17. Mavis @ #1076 Tuesday, June 9th, 2020 – 7:04 pm

    While great-uncle Joe has the sincerity of a pine nut, he’s nonetheless perhaps the only one who’s capable of freeing the free world of the nutcase incumbent(?). He may look like a Madame Tussaud’s waxwork, but it’s not him who counts as much as his running mate.

    Cheap shots is all you’ve got.

    Laugh? I almost puked!

  18. Nicholas says:
    Tuesday, June 9, 2020 at 5:47 pm

    “The share market is a graph of rich people’s feelings.”

    Superficially that may appear true – this isn’t the blog to get into lengthy debates about markets and the death of efficient market theory etc – but not everyone who does well out of markets or assets generally takes a simplistic view of wealth or the world. Imo class lines don’t function like that anymore.

    We certainly don’t look at the wider world we’ve made and feel any pride let alone joy.

    There’s a school of thought that essentially says “to change the rules one needs to be wealthy/powerful enough to play within their rules” and without getting into history – many believe that the FED and others kicking the QE can down the road (a can they created back in Greenspan’s time) will only end one way – in huge societal unrest if not collapse driven by a near total collapse in asset values .

    Bear markets on average last 13-18 months this one lasted 13 days! Purely because the central banks are not only ideologically & politically motivated to protect economies (and the corporates and super rich who effectively own them) but are now also motivated by a fear of the collapse of the whole system as they operate it starting with the Bond market

    Hence why the FED started buying BBB rated bonds/Muni bonds to the tune of $3.5 Trillion 4 weeks ago thru Blackrock (who of course many believe are front running their own order book).

    The bond market is many times bigger than the stock market ironically in part because of all the central bank QE over the years and the central banks know if they lose control of the bond market, we are all stuffed. Hence the panic when US interest rates spiked to 1.6%. in just 24 hours

    Remember interest rates have been in a 30 year+ bear market since Reagan in the 80’s but they’ve effectively been zero since 2007. And there is only one way to go from zero. Up.
    When bonds collapse and interest rates start to move up all the bad debt created by QE and the likes of Trump may well see the world in a place much worse than a depression. And interest rates don’t need to get back to 18% to cause this rolling collapse, 4 – 5% may well do it.

    Arguably the more money they print the more inequality grows and the bigger the bad debts grow. And this won’t stop any way I can see. Eventually they won’t be able to kick the can down the road anymore – God help us all when we get to that place.

    Hence why the really cynical believe that the only way out of this is to all but start again, notwithstanding our children etc I hope I’m long dead before capitalist society implodes not because I have any attachment to possessions but because you can rest assured it won’t be the politicians or the super-rich on their islands or $600m yachts that go hungry.

    Justice is just a word these days.
    Can society change the system from within before that comes to pass? I don’t know.
    Will I shed any tears for the corporates and their criminal mates if the worst comes to pass? no

  19. Andrew Probyn on the ABC news just now telling us that Joshy is nursing the economy back to health!
    Seriously, it’s time to just accept this is the way it is.

  20. Was awe inspiring watching New Zealand party on ABC news just now.. moved me to tears.

    Cross your fingers we get there too and lets hope the business lobby realises it needs to push the government for some of what New Zealand has.

  21. You can see the Trump team will focus their election campaign on who will be VP. So, a safe white male like Romney might be a good unifying choice!

  22. GG:

    [‘Cheap shots is all you’ve got.’]

    I refuse to suggest that you’d know anything about cheap shots. That said, on any criteria, Biden, in normal circumstances, would not be a presidential candidate. He reminds me of Walter Mondale.

  23. 1. Doubt Romney would accept.
    2. Trump would never offer; Romney voted for impeachment!
    3. Pence would burn the place down.

    Unifying, indeed. For the Democrats. 🙂

  24. Mavis @ #1084 Tuesday, June 9th, 2020 – 7:25 pm

    GG:

    [‘Cheap shots is all you’ve got.’]

    I refuse to suggest that you’d know anything about cheap shots. That said, on any criteria, Biden, in normal circumstances, would not be a presidential candidate. He reminds me of Walter Mondale.

    35 years and you’re still in love!

  25. WeWantPaul @ #1077 Tuesday, June 9th, 2020 – 6:54 pm

    lizzie @ #1067 Tuesday, June 9th, 2020 – 4:34 pm

    I posted this before, but maybe some of you missed it. Shows how much they (don’t) care.

    Nobody in the Coalition party room meeting in Parliament House today mentioned the protests on the weekend.

    Not even surprising they are the very worst people. Morrison is a slighly smarter Trump who hasn’t had Trump’s successes, but has had all his failures. Like with Trump it is our society elevating the very worst people to the pinnacle.

    They’re a cabal of sociopaths. It’s that simple.

    Scotty from Marketing just today warning of ‘difficult decisions’ – which we all know is austerity.

  26. Kamala .. who shortly after will be President in action if not name.

    The only alternative I see is VP Warren with a proviso that Harris will be appointed to the SC in Ruths place asap. And even that is sig less likely after the last 2 weeks.

  27. Greensborough Growler @ #1086 Tuesday, June 9th, 2020 – 7:31 pm

    Mavis @ #1084 Tuesday, June 9th, 2020 – 7:25 pm

    GG:

    [‘Cheap shots is all you’ve got.’]

    I refuse to suggest that you’d know anything about cheap shots. That said, on any criteria, Biden, in normal circumstances, would not be a presidential candidate. He reminds me of Walter Mondale.

    35 years and you’re still in love!

    a r @ #1085 Tuesday, June 9th, 2020 – 7:26 pm

    1. Doubt Romney would accept.
    2. Trump would never offer; Romney voted for impeachment!
    3. Pence would burn the place down.

    Unifying, indeed. For the Democrats. 🙂

    There’s a space you should be watching.

    Trump will not go quietly in to the night.

    The American people will be looking for unity in the aftermath.

  28. GG:

    [‘So, a safe white male like Romney might be a good unifying choice’]

    Please stop it! I used to take your posts with some semblance; but not after that. Biden needs as a running mate a black, lesbian Jew – then there’s the equality?

  29. Mavis @ #1092 Tuesday, June 9th, 2020 – 7:38 pm

    GG:

    [‘So, a safe white male like Romney might be a good unifying choice’]

    Please stop it! I used to take your posts with some semblance; but not after that. Biden needs as a running mate a black, lesbian Jew – then there’s the equality?

    You forgot, the permanent PMT!

  30. Greensborough Growler says:
    Tuesday, June 9, 2020 at 7:23 pm

    You can see the Trump team will focus their election campaign on who will be VP. So, a safe white male like Romney might be a good unifying choice!
    ____________
    Are you one of Bill Shortens election strategists?

  31. nath @ #1095 Tuesday, June 9th, 2020 – 7:45 pm

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Tuesday, June 9, 2020 at 7:23 pm

    You can see the Trump team will focus their election campaign on who will be VP. So, a safe white male like Romney might be a good unifying choice!
    ____________
    Are you one of Bill Shortens election strategists?

    Not interested nath.

    You’re scum and I have no interest in what you propose.

    Tough for your credibility and ego.

    Don’t care.

  32. Mundo what have you got against Albo? I think he’d make a good PM and was heading in the right direction until COVID showed up. The bushfires had all but ruined Morrison’s ratings.

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