Leadership polling, Eden-Monaro latest, yet more on COVID-19

Scott Morrison settles in at a lofty approval rating perch, as hordes of candidates descend upon Eden-Monaro.

Firstly, as per the above post, don’t forget to give generously to the Poll Bludger’s bi-monthly donation drive. Now to an assembly of recent events in the worlds of polling and Eden-Monaro:

• The Guardian reports the latest Essential Research poll includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Scott Morrison’s approval up a point to a new high of 65% and disapproval down a point to a new low of 26%, reflecting continuous improvement since a nadir of 39% and 52% in February. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 53-23, compared with 50-25 last time. Albanese stands at 43% approval, up one, and 30% disapproval, up three. These numbers have been used to update the BludgerTrack trends, which can be see on the sidebar or in detail here, showing Morrison now at a plateau after his recent ascent.

• The Essential poll also finds 41% saying Jobkeeper reporting bungle reflected negatively on the federal government, compared with 43% saying it did not. “A third” wanted Jobkeeper broadened in response, along with another 20% who wanted the eligibility criteria broadened, while 45% preferred that it go to reducing the debt. The poll also featured a semi-regular suite of questions on the leaders’ attributes, which have become more favourable for both leaders across the board since January. This is especially so in the case of Morrison, and still more especially in the case of his ratings for good in a crisis (66%), leadership capability (70%) and trustworthiness (66%), which have yo-yoed between the bushfire and coronavirus crises. These ratings will be available to review in detail when the full report is published later day. UPDATE: Full report here.

• A poll by the Australia Institute finds 77% support across the country for state border closures. Labor and Greens supporters are somewhat more in favour, One Nation supporters somewhat less so. The poll was conducted online on May 27 and 28 from a sample of 1005. Small-sample state breakdowns suggested Western Australians were particularly supportive, at 88%, a finding consistent with …

• The West Australian ($) had a poll yesterday that recorded a remarkable 89% in favour of keeping the state’s borders closed, with which the state government is persisting in the face of criticism from the federal government and New South Wales government. Presumably the poll had more to it than that, but that’s all there is in the report. The poll was conducted online by Painted Dog Research on Thursday from a sample of 1000.

Eden-Monaro latest:

• With a week still to go before the closure of nominations, the ABC by-election guide records ten candidates and counting, including Cathy Griff for the Greens, Matthew Stadtmiller for Shooters Fishers and Farmers, sundry candidates for the Liberal Democrats, Science Party, Christian Democrats and Sustainable Australia, and two independents. The Nationals have also opened nominations, although they have not traditionally polled strongly in the seat. The deluge has prompted Antony Green to argue that all candidates should be required to produce 100 locally enrolled nominators. This burden is currently imposed only on independents, exemption being a perk of party registration.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced its service plan for the by-election, detailing special measures arising from COVID-19. A familiar set of social distancing rules will apply at polling booths, and mobile polling will not be conducted as normal at hospitals and aged care facilities, where “support teams” will instead assist with postal and telephone voting (the latter still only available to the visually impaired).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 thoughts on “Leadership polling, Eden-Monaro latest, yet more on COVID-19”

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  2. 6 new cases in NSW but all 6 were overseas travellers.
    This means that there have been no community transmissions in NSW for a week 🙂

  6. Briefly

    I get it. According to you the Democrats have no organisation and no leadership. Thy have no established organisational hierarchy. They are pure anarchy.

  7. Does anyone know if you can visit travellers returning from overseas who are in Mandatory Quarantine, while they are staying in their hotel?

  11. guytaur says:
    Tuesday, June 2, 2020 at 11:07 am
    Briefly

    I get it. According to you the Democrats have no organisation and no leadership. Thy have no established organisational hierarchy. They are pure anarchy.

    You’re way out of your depth again. You just make shit up. You can’t get away with it every time. You are a bigot and an imbecile.

  13. Also another reminder. Biden is the presumptive Democratic nominee. Unless you lot know something I don’t that remains the case until Election Day.

    Edit: Then he will either be President or have lost.

  15. C@t

    Here in Melbourne, staff members overseeing the returned travellers in quarantine, have been infected and in turn, their close contacts have been infected.
    This is despite the protocols in place regarding contact, hygiene etc.

  17. Jennifer Rubin:

    President Trump somehow imagined it was a good idea to unleash law enforcement on peaceful demonstrators before the 7 p.m. curfew Monday night as he stepped into the Rose Garden to give a knockoff version of Richard M. Nixon’s “law and order” message.

    The president who called NFL protesters peacefully taking a knee “sons of bitches,” lied when he declared that he is a friend of peaceful demonstrators. The police firing rubber bullets and launching tear gas at protesters in Lafayette Square in front of the White House said otherwise. Then, as if the scene was not evidence enough of his desire to raise the level of violence, he pledged to deploy the U.S. military on U.S. soil, against U.S. civilians, if governors did not heed his incendiary advice to fill the streets with National Guard troops. It was later revealed that Trump instigated the assault on protesters specifically to make a gesture of walking to St. John’s church.

    Nothing could be more representative of the dangerous narcissism of a president in over his head, resorting to threats of violence against a country he ostensibly is supposed to lead. The deliberate instigation of violence for his own photo op tells Americans how deeply twisted and deformed his character is.

    His stunt was designed to play to the most rabid white evangelicals, who inexplicably have always seen themselves — not African Americans — as the true victims. The invocation of a religious institution to justify an assault on peaceful protesters was as great an abuse of religious symbols as anything Trump has done. Surely, he never heard of the “Blessed are the peacemakers” passage from the Christian bible. He worships not peacemakers but instruments of brute force.

    Moreover, any attempt to use the military against civilians in this fashion would almost certainly be illegal and unconstitutional. Even under the Insurrection Act, federal troops would have to be invited into the states to suppress an actual rebellion. For Trump, the threat of force, however unrealistic, is his go-to move when his manliness is called into question — as it was when he fled to the bunker at the White House over the weekend.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/06/01/we-saw-it-with-our-own-eyes-trump-wants-go-war-against-america/

  18. Doyley

    The Gillard governments ban on live cattle exports has been declared invalid.

    Bugger. More torture for the animals.

  19. Well it looks like everyone has forgotten Robo Debt. Good job PK and Fran Kelly for seeing the trash being taken out and acting accordingly.

    Sigh Labor, Sigh!

    I honestly expect Morrison to fall over the line at the next election.

    Devistating bushfires, slow and lazy response to the economic disaster that’s happening. He’ll get back in.

    Sigh

  20. Victoria

    The virus can infect people by airborne spread across rooms, so yeah..
    Also, fine particles (pollution, common dust) can act as a carrier – not just droplets.

  22. So, Skype it is then for 2 weeks?

    Yep. Welcome to much of my life C@t – virus or not. I can’t drive so I’m used to some degree of isolation.

  25. Edit: Then he will either be President or have lost.

    So glad you added that edit. I had no idea what the two possible outcomes would be.

  27. Hey poroti

    Its starting to look like we may need to impose a hard border around Melbourne to keep the rest of the country safe…

  28. Cud chewer

    This is latest report for Victoria…..

    A total of 10 more COVID-19 cases have been diagnosed in Victoria, taking the state’s total to 1,663.

    Four new cases are linked to the outbreak at Rydges on Swanston, bringing the total number of cases linked to the hotel to 12.

    All four cases are close contacts of known cases and they are all in self-isolation.

    None of the new cases are staff members.

    One new case was detected in a carer at Embracia aged care in Reservoir.

    All staff and residents will today be tested for COVID-19 and the facility is in lockdown.

    Another new case was detected in a kindergarten teacher at Macleod Preschool.

    The kindergarten is closed today for a thorough cleaning.

    Four other new cases are under investigation and were detected through routine drive-through or pop-up testing.

    Both the kindergarten teacher and aged care worker cases were detected through routine testing.

    Victorian Deputy Chief Health Officer Annaliese van Diemen said the kindergarten teacher “did the right thing” by getting tested when she noticed symptoms.

    “We consider people to be infectious for two days prior to their symptom onset so that is why the kindergarten has been included as an exposure site,” Dr van Diemen said.

    “They attended prior to being symptomatic, not whilst symptomatic, but whilst they were infectious.

    “They did exactly what we want all Victorians to do, which is got tested as soon as they got symptoms and kept themselves at home until they got a result.”

    All children in the teacher’s class are considered close contacts and will have to self-isolate at home for two weeks.

    As of Monday night, that included at least 12 children and eight staff.

    Dr van Diemen said health authorities were yet to determine the cause of the outbreak at Rydges on Swanston and were taking a precautionary approach to the outbreak.

    The sign outside of the Rydges on Swanston hotel in Melbourne.
    An outbreak at Rydges on Swanston hotel began when a staff member tested positive to coronavirus on May 27.
    She said staff from the Department of Health and Human Services had quarantined large numbers of hotel and departmental staff who had worked at Rydges across a number of days.

    Guests from the hotel have been moved to a different hotel, because it had become difficult to adequately staff the hotel because so many workers had needed to be quarantined.

    “We know

    the outbreak

    is linked to other cases in returned travellers but we’re still undertaking investigations as to exactly how this particular cohort of staff were exposed,” Dr van Diemen said.

  29. Cud Chewer @ #220 Tuesday, June 2nd, 2020 – 9:17 am

    Victoria

    The virus can infect people by airborne spread across rooms, so yeah..
    Also, fine particles (pollution, common dust) can act as a carrier – not just droplets.

    I thought it wasn’t clear that it could.

    It has been suggested so, but not conclusively.

  35. Barney

    https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

    Its harder for the virus to spread across a room, but there’s plenty of documented cases of it happening. One thing I have also read (but can’t find the link right now) is that the fine droplets you exhale can also attach themselves to dust particles and pollution – or even fall to the floor and then get scuffed back into the air.

    Take away. Confined spaces with recirculated air are dangerous. Masks might reduce the risk but there’s no fucking way you’ll find me on a train for instance and even with social distancing I’m not going near a cinema or the like.

  38. Victoria

    “Could well be that Melburnians go and get tested when they have symptoms. Maybe Other states not so much.”

    I think that there’s something to that. Victorians are definitely responding more to calls to get tested. I also have a hunch that Victoria is paying for not having tested as much going back a month or so and is now cleaning up the mess.

  41. Socrates @ #239 Tuesday, June 2nd, 2020 – 11:31 am

    Cat

    In LA Bush Snr invoked the Insurrection Act and supplied federal troops to the governor. But he still did not declare martial law, which has the effect of suspending many civil laws and rights.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots#Day_1_%E2%80%93_Wednesday,_April_29

    Soc,
    I’m not quite sure Trump has gone as far as declaring Martial Law over the USA as yet. He has suggested it to the Governors, afaik.

  43. Cud chewer

    Victoria has taken the longest to ease restrictions.
    Also first to quarantine returning travellers from overseas in hotels.
    Apart from not closing its borders, I dont know what more they could have done.

  45. In LA Bush Snr invoked the Insurrection Act and supplied federal troops to the governor. But he still did not declare martial law, which has the effect of suspending many civil laws and rights.

    Winning him over with America’s heartland and dooming the Democrats and their centrist candidate, Governor Bill Clinton to defeat that November. The ads just wrote themselves.

  46. The Gillard governments ban on live cattle exports has been declared invalid.?
    Because it was Labor policy, anything that Labor does is struck down by the Coalition!.
    At every opportunity.

  47. Headline in one paper.

    “Bible in hand, Trump orders military to US streets.”

    Whether it’s false news or not, it’s a shocking picture.

  48. Another prominent Conservative, George F.Will, has his say:

    This unraveling presidency began with the Crybaby-in-Chief banging his spoon on his highchair tray to protest a photograph — a photograph — showing that his inauguration crowd the day before had been smaller than the one four years previous. Since then, this weak person’s idea of a strong person, this chest-pounding advertisement of his own gnawing insecurities, this low-rent Lear raging on his Twitter-heath has proven that the phrase malignant buffoon is not an oxymoron.

    Presidents, exploiting modern communications technologies and abetted today by journalists preening as the “resistance” — like members of the French Resistance 1940-1944, minus the bravery — can set the tone of American society, which is regrettably soft wax on which presidents leave their marks. The president’s provocations — his coarsening of public discourse that lowers the threshold for acting out by people as mentally crippled as he — do not excuse the violent few. They must be punished. He must be removed.

    Social causation is difficult to demonstrate, particularly between one person’s words and other persons’ deeds. However: The person voters hired in 2016 to “take care that the laws be faithfully executed” stood on July 28, 2017, in front of uniformed police and urged them “please don’t be too nice” when handling suspected offenders. His hope was fulfilled for 8 minutes and 46 seconds on Minneapolis pavement.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/no-one-should-want-four-more-years-of-this-taste-of-ashes/2020/06/01/1a80ecf4-a425-11ea-bb20-ebf0921f3bbd_story.html

  50. Cat

    National Guard people will follow orders past what is reasonable. However there are limits.

    We have even seen the police who are in need of reform taking a knee in the streets to show they are not all of the brutalising mindset.

    So even if the Governors go along with it not all of the national guard or the military will.

    The problem is the minority that will.

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