Leadership polling, Eden-Monaro latest, yet more on COVID-19

Scott Morrison settles in at a lofty approval rating perch, as hordes of candidates descend upon Eden-Monaro.

Firstly, as per the above post, don’t forget to give generously to the Poll Bludger’s bi-monthly donation drive. Now to an assembly of recent events in the worlds of polling and Eden-Monaro:

• The Guardian reports the latest Essential Research poll includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Scott Morrison’s approval up a point to a new high of 65% and disapproval down a point to a new low of 26%, reflecting continuous improvement since a nadir of 39% and 52% in February. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 53-23, compared with 50-25 last time. Albanese stands at 43% approval, up one, and 30% disapproval, up three. These numbers have been used to update the BludgerTrack trends, which can be see on the sidebar or in detail here, showing Morrison now at a plateau after his recent ascent.

• The Essential poll also finds 41% saying Jobkeeper reporting bungle reflected negatively on the federal government, compared with 43% saying it did not. “A third” wanted Jobkeeper broadened in response, along with another 20% who wanted the eligibility criteria broadened, while 45% preferred that it go to reducing the debt. The poll also featured a semi-regular suite of questions on the leaders’ attributes, which have become more favourable for both leaders across the board since January. This is especially so in the case of Morrison, and still more especially in the case of his ratings for good in a crisis (66%), leadership capability (70%) and trustworthiness (66%), which have yo-yoed between the bushfire and coronavirus crises. These ratings will be available to review in detail when the full report is published later day. UPDATE: Full report here.

• A poll by the Australia Institute finds 77% support across the country for state border closures. Labor and Greens supporters are somewhat more in favour, One Nation supporters somewhat less so. The poll was conducted online on May 27 and 28 from a sample of 1005. Small-sample state breakdowns suggested Western Australians were particularly supportive, at 88%, a finding consistent with …

• The West Australian ($) had a poll yesterday that recorded a remarkable 89% in favour of keeping the state’s borders closed, with which the state government is persisting in the face of criticism from the federal government and New South Wales government. Presumably the poll had more to it than that, but that’s all there is in the report. The poll was conducted online by Painted Dog Research on Thursday from a sample of 1000.

Eden-Monaro latest:

• With a week still to go before the closure of nominations, the ABC by-election guide records ten candidates and counting, including Cathy Griff for the Greens, Matthew Stadtmiller for Shooters Fishers and Farmers, sundry candidates for the Liberal Democrats, Science Party, Christian Democrats and Sustainable Australia, and two independents. The Nationals have also opened nominations, although they have not traditionally polled strongly in the seat. The deluge has prompted Antony Green to argue that all candidates should be required to produce 100 locally enrolled nominators. This burden is currently imposed only on independents, exemption being a perk of party registration.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced its service plan for the by-election, detailing special measures arising from COVID-19. A familiar set of social distancing rules will apply at polling booths, and mobile polling will not be conducted as normal at hospitals and aged care facilities, where “support teams” will instead assist with postal and telephone voting (the latter still only available to the visually impaired).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “Leadership polling, Eden-Monaro latest, yet more on COVID-19”

Comments Page 4 of 41
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  1. Lincoln’s Bible @LincolnsBible

    A career money launderer for the Russian mob yelling at us about law and order is some rich shit.

  3. The support for border closures, for which there is no medical evidence, is unbelievable.
    Reminds me of the packet a day smoker who wouldn’t fly QANTAS because it was dangerous.
    It just shows how irrational people’s fears are in relation to the risk.
    Most Australians are more afraid of snakes and sharks than being morbidly obese. Go figure.

  4. Australia had its own George Floyd moment, only it passed without international outrage

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-02/us-riots-indigenous-deaths-in-custody/12309010

    The deep anguish felt after the death of George Floyd is something Indigenous communities understand all too well, except here, they are still waiting for their moment of international reckoning.
    :::
    But it was even bigger than that, the social media outcry has been impossible to ignore, George Floyd’s death was noted by millions around the world.
    :::
    It’s been more than 30 years since Australia started interrogating its own problem with Indigenous deaths in custody, but it’s an issue that often fails to command social or political attention.

    Many of the recommendations from the 1987 Royal Commission into Aboriginal Deaths in Custody were never implemented, and it’s estimated hundreds more have died in custody since.

    As Australians took to social media to denounce the events occurring in America, many Indigenous communities were left wondering where is the outcry for my family?

    So does Australia have less empathy for its own deaths in custody? Or is the American influence so great that as a country we understand their race struggles better than our own?
    :::
    But America can tell you it’ll take more than social media activism, memes about racism and protests to dismantle institutional racism.

    America might have worldwide attention, all the power and influence of celebrity, and even a black president for eight years, but just like Australia, its justice problems are not going away.

  5. Riles not happy!

    Mark Riley
    @Riley7News
    ·
    2m
    Cameraman Tim Myers hit with shield, punched in the face,
    @AmeliaBrace
    hit with truncheon. Doing their jobs while citizens bashed, shot with rubber bullets, and gassed so
    @realDonaldTrump
    can have a photo opportunity with a bible, the believers’ book of peace. This is America.

  7. Baby steps:

    SBS News
    @SBSNews

    Facebook employees will hold a virtual walkout over CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s refusal to sanction false or inflammatory posts by US President Donald Trump.

  9. lizzie @ #148 Tuesday, June 2nd, 2020 – 7:53 am

    Barney

    Police attacking the media is surely a first. They have been protected in most war zones (doesn’t mean they’re not in danger, I know).

    Yep, it seems they fear the scrutiny.

    Although I haven’t seen any clearly identify themselves as such on their clothing, so the odd mistake, maybe.

    But there seems to be too many to be put down as that, especially in the case of TV crews, the camera does make it fairly obvious.

  12. CC via The G

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/jun/02/coronavirus-australia-latest-updates-covid-19-health-workers-nsw-queensland-victoria-politics-business-restrictions-ease-live-news?page=with:block-5ed58f168f084df971c8dddd#block-5ed58f168f084df971c8dddd

    “Turner initially tested positive for coronavirus after his death last week, but subsequent tests have confirmed he was not infected.
    :::
    But he said it was a regrettable outcome that the family had suffered unnecessarily, in light of “multiple” subsequent negative tests.
    :::
    The state’s chief health officer, Jeannette Young, said false positive tests for coronavirus were extremely rare.

    She said the results were compromised by the fact that one sample from Turner was contaminated with excessive blood from the post-mortem process.

    “There are two potential answers here. One is that it was a false positive. The other is that it was a true positive,” Young said.

    “And we won’t know which it was….

  13. This is all getting too much. I think I’ll retreat to my jigsaw for a while.

    Is it too early for a nip of whiskey?

  14. [.§252. Use of militia and armed forces to enforce Federal authority
    Whenever the President considers that unlawful obstructions, combinations, or assemblages, or rebellion against the authority of the United States, make it impracticable to enforce the laws of the United States in any State by the ordinary course of judicial proceedings, he may call into Federal service such of the militia of any State, and use such of the armed forces, as he considers necessary to enforce those laws or to suppress the rebellion.’]

    There’s little ambiguity in this section of the Insurrection Act save for ‘…by the ordinary course of judicial proceedings…’ and a judicial determination as to whether the protests/looting constitutes “rebellion”. Given Trump’s lackeys control the Supreme Court (though Roberts, CJ seems to be a fairly straight player), there’s a very real prospect that troops will be seen on the streets.

  15. Meridith McGraw Politico Reporter
    @meridithmcgraw

    The pastor of St. John’s on Fox News just said he had no idea what was going to be happening at his church tonight at 7pm. “I feel like I’m in some alternative universe in a way.”

    The Episcopalian Church, which St John’s is, is a frequent critic of Donald Trump and his policies.

  16. Pegasus.
    Says a lot about the left in this country. You only have to look at the comments on poll bludger as a prime example.

  17. Good News Labor is fighting for public servants in NSW parliament.

    Fred Nile is the blockage but the parliamentary fight has get him saying he will exempt nurses and police from the freeze. So well done Labor and allies.

  19. BOB LYNCH @ #152 Tuesday, June 2nd, 2020 – 7:58 am

    The support for border closures, for which there is no medical evidence, is unbelievable.
    Reminds me of the packet a day smoker who wouldn’t fly QANTAS because it was dangerous.
    It just shows how irrational people’s fears are in relation to the risk.
    Most Australians are more afraid of snakes and sharks than being morbidly obese. Go figure.

    No medical evidence?????

    One of the key elements in combating the virus has been to reduce social mobility.

    Closing certain venues.

    Stopping unnecessary travel.

    This has been done within cities and States, so why is it wrong to restrict movement between States.

    Remember no one is stopping you from travelling from one State to another, it’s just that you’ll have to quarantine every time you do.

  21. “The support for border closures, for which there is no medical evidence”

    According to who? Every model I’ve ever seen shows the same thing. Travel amplifies spread of the virus.

  22. Trump is a bully and a coward

    David Frum
    @davidfrum
    ·
    2m
    A brave man would have talked to the demonstrators. Maybe invite a dozen of them into the White House for a talk. But tear-gassing and clubbing them so that the president can go for a rare walk behind a screen of thousands of armed police? That’s not “brave.”

  23. poroti @ #155 Tuesday, June 2nd, 2020 – 8:00 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga

    The French police became very keen on it. Dozens of Yellow Vest protesters were blinded or had serious eye injuries it. At least there there were some charges.
    …………………………………………………………………………………………

    French police to face charges over yellow vest injuries
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/05/30/french-police-face-charges-yellow-vest-injuries/

    Good to see.

    Another interesting snippet from Wiki is that they are no longer coated with rubber and the reason why this is so.

    Rubber projectiles have largely been replaced by other materials as rubber tends to bounce uncontrollably.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rubber_bullet

  25. guytaur says:
    Tuesday, June 2, 2020 at 9:53 am
    Briefly

    This is beyond politics as usual. This is about preventing martial law.

    You’re essentially assigning fault for these riots to ‘Establishment Democrats’. This is just wrong. Completely wrong.

    But your prejudices colour your reactions. You’re far more concerned about making an ideological point than considering the substance of the situation.

  26. Victoria @ #166 Tuesday, June 2nd, 2020 – 10:14 am

    Trump is a bully and a coward

    David Frum
    @davidfrum
    ·
    2m
    A brave man would have talked to the demonstrators. Maybe invite a dozen of them into the White House for a talk. But tear-gassing and clubbing them so that the president can go for a rare walk behind a screen of thousands of armed police? That’s not “brave.”

    Yes, it is.
    Kotchy said so on the telly…’a very brave move’ he said…’always been a showman’ he said…
    F.
    M.
    D.

  28. guytaur @ #161 Tuesday, June 2nd, 2020 – 10:09 am

    Good News Labor is fighting for public servants in NSW parliament.

    Fred Nile is the blockage but the parliamentary fight has get him saying he will exempt nurses and police from the freeze. So well done Labor and allies.

    ‘Good News Labor is fighting’
    How’s that working out.

  30. guytaur @ #150 Tuesday, June 2nd, 2020 – 9:53 am

    The so called “Bernie Bros” were on the money about the inequality and lack of dignity of the American Underclass.

    This has nothing to do with Bernie or his Bros. This is decent people against police brutality, institutional racism, Trump, and his cadre of gun-toting fascists.

    Using it to make some sort of “Bernie was right” point is unhelpful, at best.

  32. guytaur says:
    Tuesday, June 2, 2020 at 10:20 am
    Briefly

    I am seeing the underclass protesting in the streets. Thats not bias thats using my eyes.

    And your ‘explanation’ for it was to assign blame to some fictional ‘Establishment’ racket. Your prejudice is showing, as usual.

  34. AR

    Denying the role of Democrats helps keep things the same.

    All I said was it was my opinion that Sanders was the best bet because he was directly addressing these issues.

    Eg. Universal Healthcare.

    The fact that not only have 40 million people lost their jobs they lost their healthcare too changes emotions.

    There has been six days of rioting. With their issues addressed there could have well been no riots or at least not ongoing riots.

    The US has Dickensian style policies for the Underclass.
    Just look at abbottoirs Go to work we don’t care if you die.

    Some representation would make a difference. That means at least one party that will fight for you.

    Instead we have desperate people feeling forgotten about and not being represented. Sanders made them feel represented.

    That’s all I am saying. It’s not about being right. If I had been right Senator Warren would be the Democratic nominee.

  36. I am seeing the underclass protesting in the streets. Thats not bias thats using my eyes.

    Yeah perception can’t be tainted by bias. Well done.

  37. ‘Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Tuesday, June 2, 2020 at 9:41 am

    Cud Chewer @ #83 Tuesday, June 2nd, 2020 – 6:52 am

    With that Queensland man
    He initially tested positive. Then a second test was negative.
    Given that we are now discovering the limitations of the “gold standard” test, this still leaves the question hanging. Was the first test correct and…?

    The second test was disregarded because it was thought tainted.

    How do you get a tainted negative test?’

    Positive turned to negative because masked by tainting agent?

  39. guytaur says:
    Tuesday, June 2, 2020 at 10:33 am
    AR

    Denying the role of Democrats helps keep things the same…..

    All I said was it was my opinion that Sanders was the best bet because he was directly addressing these issues.That’s all I am saying. It’s not about being right. If I had been right Senator Warren would be the Democratic nominee.

    This is disingenuous rubbish. It’s not all you said. What you said was the riots could be attributed to the choice of Biden by the ‘Establishment’. This is entirely factually wrong. Biden was chosen in elections by voters.

    You are free-loading on the riots to parade your ideological prejudices.

  42. guytaur says:
    Tuesday, June 2, 2020 at 10:50 am
    RL

    To quote Dr King.

    Riots are the voice of the unheard.

    Now you’re freeloading on MLK.

    You are a plagiarist and a bigot.

  43. Briefly

    You might not like the fact that desperate people feeling unrepresentative are rioting.

    Yet there they are on our tv screens. Your denial of a Democrat Establishment is your bias.

  44. Ingrid M
    @iMusing
    ·ABC radio just played an audio clip of the prime minister in western Sydney saying he will soon be announcing money for tradies and a clip of the Treasurer in a pub saying he will soon be announcing money for the sparkie and the plumber. It’s gonna be a long campaign.
    ***
    21m
    I hand out HTVs to tradies who pull up in $100K 4WDs and $500 boots every state and federal election. They vote Liberal. In May 2019 the Labor MP won by 272 votes with Greens prefs. This public money giveaway is gonna flow like rivers of gold into my electorate.

    ***
    9m
    nobody in this discussion is observing that tradies already got a massive escalation of their instant tax write down or that access to jobkeeper was almost certainly extended to sole traders for that all-important tradie vote in swinging marginals.

  45. Riots are the voice of the unheard.

    Does that include the Tulsa race riot, the Perry race riot, the Zoot Suit Riots, the New Orleans massacre etc.?

  46. boerwar says:
    Tuesday, June 2, 2020 at 10:50 am
    The Virus and the situation in the US is a but a minor blip compared to the impacts global warming will have.
    Focusing on them to the exclusion of the larger, more urgent, and more important issue might even be called displacement behaviour.

    Exactly. Thanks Boer.

  47. As I intimated yesterday, a great sign of clueless white privilege is quoting MLK but making the context of the quote be about whatever your personal interests are.

  48. AR

    We are talking about a system that has oppressed for centuries.

    We are talking about desperate people who are a minority within the protests. When your economic circumstances are desperate you do desperate things like looting.

    Mass incarceration helps train you to be a criminal underclass. This is more true when you are on your own.

    It’s why it’s recognised that increased inequality leads to societal breakdown.

    We are not talking about normal reasoned political debate.

  49. guytaur says:
    Tuesday, June 2, 2020 at 10:53 am
    Briefly

    You might not like the fact that desperate people feeling unrepresentative are rioting.

    This is an unfounded slur. Put it that way. I could call it a disgraceful lie. I could call it yet another example of your endless fucked-in-the-head bigotry. You are a disgrace. You are not only a disgrace, you are an imbecile.

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