Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

The Coalition edges back into the lead in Newspoll, with Labor, the Greens and One Nation all down on the primary vote.

The Australian reports the Coalition has opened a 51-49 lead in the latest Newspoll, after the previous poll three weeks ago recorded a dead heat. The Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 43%, with Labor down one to 35%, the Greens down two to 10% and One Nation down one to 3%. Scott Morrison’s approval rating is down two to 66%, with the disapproval not yet provided; Albanese is down one on approval to 44% and up three on disapproval to 37%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is all but unchanged at 56-29, compared with 56-28 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1504. More detail to follow later.

UPDATE: Morrison’s disapproval rating turns out to be up two to 30%. These numbers have been incorporated into the BludgerTrack leadership trends which you can see on the sidebar and in greater detail here. Newspoll has put to respondents the same suite of questions concerning coronavirus in its last three polls, which record soaring confidence in “federal and state governments’ performance” in managing the economic impact (60% satisfied, up 13 points on last time, and 24% dissatisfied, down nine), preparing the health system (up 19 to 78% and down 13 to 15%) and informing Australians about how to protect themselves (up seven to 82% and down seven to 13%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

828 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 3 of 17
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  1. Invest To Recover – A cleaner, fairer Australia: Beyond COVID-19, towards a Green New Deal

    https://greens.org.au/recovery

    “Now is the time for bold government investment to create jobs and build the foundations of a cleaner, fairer economy. Our plan focuses on the future and will leave no one behind. “

  2. Greens call for investment-led recovery plan

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/greens-call-for-investment-led-recovery-plan-20200517-p54tnq

    Australia would build 500,000 new public housing properties and guarantee anyone under 30 a job, training place or free higher education under a Greens plan to rebuild the economy after COVID-19.

    Greens leader Adam Bandt will release plans for a more than $200 billion debt-led economic recovery package on Monday, proposing massive new spending to revive manufacturing and improve national infrastructure, while transitioning to 100 per cent renewable energy.
    :::
    The Invest to Recover plan would expand health and aged care, boost arts funding and restore public sector jobs.

    Australians under 30 years of age would get free university or TAFE places, apprenticeships, or taxpayer-funded jobs on nation-building and environmental projects.
    :::
    The Greens argue the plan is affordable and good value for taxpayers, increasing net federal government debt from about 29 per cent to about 44 per cent of GDP. The costings suggest debt would increase by as much as $300 billion, spread over a decade.

    Mr Bandt said gross debt in Australia peaked after World War II at about 120 per cent of GDP, with the current OECD average at about 95 per cent in 2020.

  5. There’s that word again…. Green…..it’s been glued on to New Deal….and consequently a New Deal will never be enacted in this country. Action on the environment and social justice will never get up because of Green- labelling. The Splitters have won their battle and lost the war.

  6. “The government is expected to impose physical distancing measures on the transport network, with a cap as low as 12 people per bus being raised as an option. There could also be a cap on people boarding trains.

    Speaking about the plan on Friday, Ms Berejiklian said the government would be “very strict” about social distancing.”

    Excellent.. crowd controllers AND riot police..

  8. CC
    With the sort of numbers below (from your link) touted I think “Work From Home” will be heavily pushed.
    .
    “The government is expected to impose physical distancing measures on the transport network, with a cap as low as 12 people per bus being raised as an option. There could also be a cap on people boarding trains.”

  10. Business editor Ian Verrender

    Economic recovery from coronavirus pitting economic theories against each other

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-18/covid-19-hastened-an-economic-revolution/12257642

    The free market should determine our destiny, he argued, and any tinkering with the economy should be via interest rates and independent central banks such as our Reserve Bank. The wealth will trickle down.

    That’s been the dominant philosophy ever since. Until now.

    The dirty little secret of central banks

    You may not realise this, but for half a century now, our leaders have run Western economies based upon a nasty and inhumane principle. They’ve convinced themselves 5 per cent of the workforce always should remain unemployed and they’ve manoeuvred interest rates to ensure that’s the case.
    :::
    The jobless suddenly matter
    :::
    At the other extreme are those pushing what’s known as “modern monetary theory”. A government with its own central bank has the ability to create and spend as much money as it wants, they argue. Like Keynes, they argue government spending and taxation are the best tools to manage the economy. Unlike Keynes, they don’t believe in balanced budgets over the longer term. Deficits don’t matter.
    :::
    While the future remains uncertain, there seems little doubt COVID-19 has hastened a revolution in the way we think, live and manage our lives.

  11. Good morning from a rainy Newcastle.

    Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.

    These items in particular stirred me to the point of asking

    “What a load of old tosh is this ❓ “

    Andrew Leigh calls for Australians to not be left behind as we climb out of this crisis.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6758035/as-australia-bounces-back-lets-make-sure-were-not-leaving-people-behind/?cs=14258

    Left behind. Of course the undeserving will be left behind – who else will we be encouraged to hate – the LNP ❓

    The RMIT’s Helen Souness explains how the Coronavirus pandemic gives Australia a chance to fix our skills gaps in technology. She says employers need not think of training as a cost or an employment benefit. They should reframe that thinking of it as a strategic investment that can deliver a competitive edge.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-pandemic-gives-australia-a-chance-to-fix-our-skills-gaps-in-technology-20200515-p54tee.html

    Skills gap – closing – not even on nodding acquaintance. More private shonky spivvery outfits to simulate same.

    Shaun Carney says that our future beyond the pandemic hangs on how much courage resides inside those who lead our national government. Their task is to reimagine a different Australia, unencumbered by ideological rigidity and their natural policy timidity.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/a-big-job-ahead-and-a-big-opportunity-too-20200515-p54tec.html

    Come on now – I think we all know what courage really means – dig a hole, crawl in, pull the hole in after you and wait for the storm to pass.

    I note that a couple of items from “The Australian” have graced the thread this morning. Comment – mostly repetitious bullshit.

    And to aid in uplifting the blog this morning in accordance with William’s plea.

    As for Australias Call ……. just more bullshit as our brave lot hide among those involved – pretend to be leaders – and hope that China doesn’t notice. Well done Orstraya.

  13. “With the sort of numbers below (from your link) touted I think “Work From Home” will be heavily pushed.”

    Its not enough though. Think about all the jobs that cannot be worked at home. Especially retail, food, service. Hundreds of thousands in Sydney CBD. CBDs just don’t function without mass transit.

  14. Time to abolish the spies?

    https://johnmenadue.com/tony-smith-time-to-abolish-the-spies/

    Planned expansion of the powers of the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) should alarm anyone who believes in democratic values and rule of law.
    :::
    The call for expanded powers for secret agencies is based on fear. The federal government’s hope is that people can be made so fearful of external or domestic threats that they are willing to cede certain rights to agencies which supposedly know about such things. The most obvious problem here is that secret police do not know at all. They refuse to have their record scrutinised publicly, citing the need for secrecy. They might know or they might not. We are not allowed to have access to the secrets which they may discover but certainly create for their own purposes.
    :::
    In their fear, people who accept the call for special powers for secret police do not think that these powers will ever be used against them. They think the powers are for use against the ‘other’ for their own benefit. Decisions made in a state of fear are seldom rational and handing over one’s freedoms to an unaccountable agency is about as irrational as actions can get.
    :::
    Under the current proposals, ASIO would never need to exceed its authority. It would be above the law. Spies do not protect democracy. They are the antithesis of democracy and undermine it.

  15. Pegasus

    The free market should determine our destiny, he argued,
    ————-
    Where is this mythical “free” market?

    If it was found, ones destiny is determined there?

    What a frightful thought!

  16. Seen in yet another article…

    “NSW Police will be at stations and ride trains, buses and ferries to stop frustrated commuters harassing drivers.

    NSW Police Deputy Commissioner Gary Worboys said if a 13th person tried to board a bus with its new capacity of 12, “the bus will not be going anywhere”.”

    So, turn up at 6am for the bus you normally took at 8am and if you miss it, wait in a queue till 11am. Do they have enough riot police?

  17. “A pop up carpark will be launched at Moore Park in Sydney’s east.”

    Ok, so the park is big enough for about 14,000 cars.
    – That only scratches the surface of capacity
    – Its a 40 minute walk from there to Town Hall
    – All those people walking into the CBD are going to be breathing heavily and tightly packed on narrow footpaths
    – Car pooling will increase risk

    This is just plain futile.

  19. I suppose the elderly cannot complain of their abuse and exploitation by the UK profiteers from Bupa in their “care” homes because the inmates’ destinies were determined by the market!

    The “market” of course being a well known pseudonym of a few crooks in suits.

  20. C@tmomma:

    Monday, May 18, 2020 at 8:39 am

    [‘Well now it’s Morrison and Frydenburg’s turn to go from Santa Claus to Scrooge McDuck.’]

    I do hope you’re not into schadenfreude(?). But yes, giving it out is the easy part. Where I think Morrison’s particularly vulnerable is when the JobKeeper allowance ceases, with many of those on it unable to find employment, reverting to the miserable Newstart payment. Anyway, I’m off.

  21. Scott says:
    Monday, May 18, 2020 at 7:32 am
    “You falling for the media propaganda , what the media did expose was how the opinion polls were corrupt , despite the denials from the so called polling experts and analysis, that these opinion polls weren’t use for propaganda”

    That’s dastardly cunning propaganda- publish months of polling data showing that the ALP was winning in order to lull voters into thinking the ALP was going to win while all the time adjusting the polling data away from the LNP. That’s Mossad level sneaky. Apparently.

  22. Horsey continues her relentless intellectual exercise of never entertaining, or producing, an original thought.

    The technical term for it is “The Appeal To Authority”.

  24. lizzie says:
    Monday, May 18, 2020 at 7:42 am

    I do hope they didn’t spend too much money on that study.

    Who knew that the harder you blew the greater the amount of droplets are produced and the further that they travelled thereby increasing risk of infection? Next, how walking in front of moving cars is bad for your health.

  26. ajm says:
    Monday, May 18, 2020 at 7:53 am

    Given that the narrative both here and in some parts of the media is/was that Australia was being stupid trying to publicly hold China to account and have an independent investigation into the circumstances it is quite reasonable to point out that all these countries are saying and doing exactly what Australia has been doing.

  27. Good to hear Norman Swan promoting masks , especially on public transport. There are enough masks now and just seems a no- brainer. I’m deliberately wearing one because I think the more we normalise these here , as not just for Asian people, the more likely it will be that others will adopt them.

  29. ‘fess,
    Dr Chalmers has been Zooming in to The McKell Institute, The Australia Institute and The Chifley Research Centre and probably to other podcasts and Zooms that I don’t know about. He’s not letting the moss grow under his feet.

  31. I’m very pleased to hear what the Vic govt has announced to stimulate the Victorian economy. Building schools, and public housing.
    Kudos.

    Meanwhile as far as Victoria is concerned,the mantra continues to be if you can work from home you must.

  32. If Mr Carney thinks Australia needs so much reimagining then perhaps he should run for Parliament and win the argument with a mandate. Greens would be a good party to try.

  34. “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”…

    So, Morrison has made sure to be in the spotlight during this coronavirus crisis, playing the leader with his daily briefings which, btw, are transmitted live by ALL free-to-air TV channels… Yep, just like in the old Soviet Union…. and yet, he can only manage a 51% advantage?…. Ha, ha, ha…. what do you expect during the phase of “snap-back” from our alleged current “hibernation”, when the promised jobs are no going to come back but government support will disappear, because debt-and-deficit are a disaster?… Oh, and did I mention the decreased salaries for those who will be lucky enough to retain their job? What am I talking about you say? Just ask any academic, they have been told that salaries will have to go down if they hope to retain their job….

    So, my dear ScuMo, enjoy your current shaky 51%…. it’s not going to last…..

  35. Doug Cameron
    @DougCameron51
    ·
    40s
    So Morrison is going to “reform” the economy through a new “industrial compact”.
    Claims there is rigidity in the workplace and employees want more flexibility.
    It was the Coalition who destroyed cooperation in workplaces through WorkChoices while restricting bargaining rights.

  36. Good Morning.

    I see the usual suspects are back to their anti green rhetoric .

    Make no mistake. Doing this they are attacking Labor.

    To voters Labor is the Government environment party. Every attack on the Greens does undermine action on climate and other environmental policies.

    This undermines Labor in the eyes of voters. Labor is seen as being weak. There is a reason the LNP does not attack One Nation directly anymore. It’s to their advantage. It keeps them in government.

    This ensures the Overton Window shifts to the right as Labor stalwarts attack as crazy and lunatic their left. Just as the LNP does not attack their crazy lunatic fringe. Note the difference. The Greens are not crazy lunatics. N matter how much some on this blog dress it up.

    Be very aware there are stupid political people on this blog saying they support Labor that are helping the LNP retain government.

  37. “doing exactly what Australia has been doing”…..EXCEPT in a diplomatic, non-ideological, non-point scoring way.
    There is a difference and in cultures obsessed with ‘face’ it makes a huge difference.

  38. Keynes was not concerned with budget deficits and/or surpluses. What he showed very convincingly was that when stimulus was required it would be efficacious to increase taxes to finance public sector spending because the public sector would spend all of the money whereas the private sector would try to save some of it. This reluctance to spend and the repressive effect of this on demand was described by Keynes as the paradox of thrift. The desire of the private sector to save would result in under-consumption and mean that unemployment would be higher than would otherwise be the case.

    He talked about savings rates and the ‘balanced budget multiplier’. He advocated taxing as a means of expanding demand. He was probably right. The tax cuts passed last year by the LNP are a case in point. Spending was cut to enable the cuts to be financed without altering the fiscal balance. Public demand fell. Households – the beneficiaries of the cuts – mainly saved the proceeds, leading to a decline in aggregate demand.

    Of course, Keynes did not live in an era when private savings rates were basically next to zero, nor when public borrowings could be financed ad infinitum. He did not advocate fiscal deficits. He saw that full employment could be achieved by the use of fiscal policy. He was quite right about that. He focussed on aggregate demand and the use of policy to expand demand to a level required for full employment.

    The RW have been opposed to Keynes all along, mostly on distributional/equity grounds. They recognise that tax-and-spend is a means of transferring income from the wealthy to the less-wealthy. They are opposed to this even though it’s desirable from a full-employment perspective. They have been happy enough to use Keynesian ‘pump-priming’ policies when political circumstances have demanded it. This has almost always involved borrowing-by-all rather than taxing-the-rich. Howard did it. Morrison is doing it now. By contrast, Labor has usually run contrary settings – taxing the wealthier more so the less well-off could pay less tax, and reducing recurrent deficits so that overall taxes into the future would be minimised.

    This is contrary to the popular mythology, but it is a fair summation. Labor are defamed by the LNP (Labor are wasteful borrowers who demand too much tax) and now they will be defamed by the Greens (Labor will neither tax nor borrow enough). As things stand, the LNP will borrow as much as they need to stay in office, and not so much that they can fully support demand in the economy.

  40. Pegasus: “Business editor Ian Verrender
    Economic recovery from coronavirus pitting economic theories against each other”

    Thanks for the link…. interesting to see MMT mentioned by a mainstream commentator on economics publishing on a mainstream media website….

    We may finally start abandoning Neoliberalism and replace it with some form of Keynesianism (or post-Keynesianism).

  41. Victoria.
    I hope the painting of the train stations and social housing is not going to be some splash and dash job. Even if it is creating employment the key to a good paint job is in the preparation.
    Waste of money otherwise.

  44. Lizzie

    I will put it another way.

    The LNP denounces latte sipping inner city elites. Then they demand cafes open for their lattes.

    Calling a party that follows science crazy lunar left and extremist means you are normalising the crazy science deniers. As we have seen with this pandemic it’s the science deniers that are crazy.

    It’s time we returned to that rhetoric for the right including the government.

    The Greens are not on the crazy planet of the science deniers. Agree with their policies or not.

  45. lizzie quoting Doug Cameron….

    Indeed, lizzie, the Neoliberals know that a serious crisis is never a problem, but a golden opportunity, and they are ready to seize this coronagolden opportunity to go hard against the workers and the unions….

    I am looking forward to see not only what the ALP or the ACTU are going to say and do but, above all, what the response of the workers is going to be….

    First real electoral appointment: the Queensland state election!

  46. Taylormade

    From what I have read in the past, many “commission” houses are declared unliveable because of poor maintenance and then left empty and deteriorate more, which is ridiculous. Let’s hope this funding will sort things out a little.

  47. Alpo

    Palasczcuk was very astute to pursue a stake in Virgin.

    Now Labor is saving actual jobs. Not cutting potential jobs with Adani.

    Big change in campaigning. It’s no wonder Dutton was upset.

  48. Latest numbers in Victoria

    85
    84
    415

    Jenny Mikakos MP #StayHomeSaveLives
    @JennyMikakos
    ·
    1h
    There are 1567 confirmed cases of #COVID19 in Victoria & sadly 18 deaths. 161 cases may be community transmission. 9 people are in hospital, inc 5 in ICU. 1439 people recovered, >345,000 tests processed. Our message: even if you have mild symptoms, get tested #springst

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