Bega Valley Shire mayor Kristy McBain has been anointed by Anthony Albanese as Labor’s candidate for the Eden-Monaro by-election, despite the fact that a designated nominations period had yet to expire. The Nationals have justified their optimism by providing The Australian ($) with an internal poll conducted immediately after Mike Kelly’s retirement announcement on Thursday, the paper’s report of which begins thus: “NSW Deputy Premier John Barilaro would win the Eden-Monaro by-election if he chooses to stand” (UPDATE: See account of weekend developments at the bottom of the post). This fact turns out to have been established by a 52-48 lead over Kristy McBain, and primary votes that have Barilaro leading hypothetical Liberal candidate Jim Molan by 30% to 21%, with McBain on 35% and Greens candidate Patrick McGinlay on 8%.
However, a report by David Crowe of the Age/Herald ($) suggests state Transport Minister and Bega MP Andrew Constance has been responsive to colleagues’ suggestions he should seek Liberal preselection, and Barilaro has said he will not run if Constance does. Furthermore, “some state sources said there was still a chance both men would pull back from the contest”. In that case, it would seem Fiona Kotvojs, who ran at the election last year, would get another run for the Liberals, and the Nationals would presumably go back to being uncompetitive. Candidacies of either or both of Barilaro and Constance respectively raise the prospect of state by-elections for the seats of Monaro (Nationals margin 11.6%) and Bega (Liberal margin 6.9%), neither of which are unloseable by the recent historic standards of by-elections.
In other news, Roy Morgan has conducted its occasional exercise of publishing the latest results of its federal voting polling, which these days it keeps to itself except when it believes it has identified a newsworthy angle to the results. Onthis occasion its a forceful swing to the Coalition that was missed by Newspoll, such that it now leads 51.5-48.5 after trailing 53-47 in polling from mid-March (compared with 51-49 from the Newspoll of the time). On the primary vote, the Coalition was up seven to 43.5%, Labor down three to 33%, the Greens up half to 11.5% and One Nation down one to 3%. Among the unanswered questions are what impact an apparent chopping and changing of survey methods may have had, with this latest result said to combine phone and online polling for a sample of 2806 over the two weekends just past. Many others besides have been canvassed by Kevin Bonham.
Then there’s the latest effort from Dynata for the Institute of Public Affairs, this time concerning coronavirus restrictions, which I’m not going to say anything about except that it’s out there. Among the questions respondents were invited to agree or disagree with was the following: “There should be an immediate easing of petty restrictions with appropriate social distancing in place”. If I were completing such a survey, my reaction to this question would be to recognise that I was being manipulated and refuse to complete it, and I suspect I’m not alone.
UPDATE (4/5/20): Conflicting signals on the John Barilaro front this morning, courtesy of apparently separate sources both said to be close to him. The Sydney Morning Herald ($) reported overnight that Barilaro would formally announce his intention not to run this morning, but The Australian ($) has been told that this is wrong and that Barilaro is still considering his position. The Herald reports claims from Liberals that Crosby Textor internal polling shows Andrew Constance would win the seat in canter, and that the state Liberals consider Constance’s seat of Bega to be easier to defend at a by-election than Barilaro’s seat of Monaro, which might fall to Shooters Fishers and Farmers or such like. Barilaro and Constance are apparently both on the record saying they will drop out if the other runs rather than expose the state government to two by-elections, which merely raises the question of which claim takes precedence.
Speers trying Tehan up in knots. Not hard.
Boerwar
That’s a shame, in that case have you any suggestions as to what Tehan actually is ? 🙂
BW
As I pointed out yesterday only Android 6.0 later and certain iPhone generations can support the app. Windows phones do not.
How many old and poor people have phones? How many children under 14 have them?
I’m glad I don’t have to make any decisions relying on Dan Tehan for clear advice!!!
Tehan should be playin’ his banjo and chewin’ baccy.
Speers is skewering Tehan and the feds mixed messages.
Boerwar @ #86 Sunday, May 3rd, 2020 – 9:17 am
He will dismiss your question with his go to retort that he is a member of the Labor Party not The Greens.
‘BK says:
Sunday, May 3, 2020 at 9:26 am
BW
As I pointed out yesterday only Android 6.0 later and certain iPhone generations can support the app. Windows phones do not.
How many old and poor people have phones? How many children under 14 have them?’
Ask Robert. He cares for the poor, the young and the old. All the time, every time. So does Smirko.
lizzie @ #104 Sunday, May 3rd, 2020 – 9:26 am
He has been promoted way above his pay grade as a result of Victorian Liberal Party nepotism.
Speers AGAIN persisting with a gotcha. 8 minutes’ worth. ONE question.
To be fair, he IS bringing out the Real (Mr Nasty) Dan Tehan.
Looks like the National Cabinet is falling apart at the seams. At least on schools.
Tehan is saying that kids in Eastern Victoria don’t have any links to schools. The reason might possibly be bushfire and lack of NBN?
WeWantPaul @ #82 Sunday, May 3rd, 2020 – 7:16 am
Ah!! So his guilt has been established.
The saddest thing about this is how it’s being played out.
There is a process to deal with these sort of allegations and it appears to have been completely ignored.
Your position and attitude is just as bad as someone who says he is innocent.
Tehan is getting annoyed and is starting to hector.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, May 3, 2020 at 9:24 am
It’s been disappointing to watch men who have a particular political axe to grind jumping to the defense of any old woman making a sexual assault allegation and simply dismissing evidence that corroborates the accuseds’ explanation. Just because a woman makes an allegation of sexual assault doesn’t make it true. Sad to say, women have been using sex to bring down men for centuries, just as much as men have been sexually abusing women. I’m not taking one side or the other for politically advantageous reasons, I simply do not want to see an innocent person convicted by a kangaroo court of baying hyenas desperate for political blood.
___________
So you think Trump is innocent?
Speers has got Tehan fired up on the words per minute measure.
I am waiting for the government to change (or should I say redefine) the denominator for the 40% COVIDSafe app take up.
Everything is Dan Andrews’ fault. So there!
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #112 Sunday, May 3rd, 2020 – 9:29 am
+1
Confessions @ #98 Sunday, May 3rd, 2020 – 7:24 am
Because he is one of the few at the table who appears to give a shit.
The Coalition has done focus groups and knows that parents want schools to return and is populist vote pandering.
When schools start acting as pandemic clusters the Coalition will turn around and blame the states.
When schools start acting as pandemic clusters the Coalition will turn around and blame the states.
____
Nothing is surer, BW.
Don’t the elderly purchase a lot of this type of mobile phone?
Can the app be downloaded onto them?
Does anyone know how the Greens are going with their sundry sexual harassment issues?
Has the Bush Bandit cleaned up his stables?
All good?
lizzie @ #119 Sunday, May 3rd, 2020 – 9:31 am
It’s an unseemly haste for mine.
Boerwar:
Yep, the Trump strategy.
You can see it happening again. Biden is going to do a Shorten and be a dead weight on the Democrats that will see Trump get over the line.
Tehan learns his lines like a good little student and can’t vary them, even when he becomes illogical.
If only the coalition were as quick to rely on the advice of scientists on issues such as AGW as they are health experts and coronavirus.
Anyway, who’s to say that the schools who do reopen will get the money promised by Morrison in a timely fashion? He has form in that area.
It’s not fair to compare NSW and Vic with states with lower populations and fewer clusters.
Edit – fewer clusters
I imagine Dan Andrews is watching this interview closely.
C@t
Yes. The oldies often won’t have a bar of the smartphones. The types you displayed will not support the app.
If Scott Morrison thinks that this political fight he has picked with Dan Andrews in order to diminish him politically, is one that he will win, then I think he is going to be schooled.
Looks like a dope.
Sounds like a dope.
Is . . . . .
We prepared our domestic arrangements, including stores, and self-isolated for about a month before government decision so to do. Most of the people we know in our age bracket essentially did the same thing. It was a good judgement call, IMO, and it definitely helped Australia generally get on top of the Virus to the extent we have.
Again, during the restrictions, the behaviours have been close to 100%, to my knowledge.
Now comes the next decision point. To what extent should we relax our personal behaviours as restrictions are raised? This decision will have to be revised time and time again, possibly for the next couple of years. Statistically, that is around 20% of our remaining (pre-Virus) life expectancy.
The Virus is still highly infectious. Asymptomatic carriers can spread it. There is no cure. There is no vaccine.
What to do?
I said the other day one of the most effective things about Australia’s response has been the national cabinet. Scotty and his govt is now politicising that, and watch our response start to become more cathartic as a result.
Thanks for the phone information, BK.
There are two main principles behind #metoo. The way I see it.
They apply equally to Biden and Kavanagh.
The first is that there is a mountain of disincentive to report this kind of behavior and almost no positive incentives. Such that it is almost always right to believe the victim.
The second is that the legal system fails this kind of victim time after time after time. We’ve just seen our High Court second guess a jury, lift the bar and make it even harder for victims to get any sort of justice. Any demand that victims must go through the legal system is cruel, vicious and pretty much every dream dream come true.
You don’t just junk those principles because someone on your team is the victim of them.
Fair call, my apology for that.
PK says Morrison’s obviously decided to go in hard against Andrews.
Ok.
Now, Albo, it’s ok now. You can go in hard against Scrooter.
Go get ‘im.
I am getting pretty angry that the Morrison government is trying to force Victoria to lower its prevention strategies. Andrews is trying to “keep us safe” – something that Morrison and Dutton have boasted about for years, but have never achieved.
I have had some involvement with a business colocated with a premier university (but has no real connection) that offers a higher degree in business to overseas students. It is popular and expensive. Much of the tuition is based around securing a job in Australia, Standard interview skills, writing CVs, job experience placements. 99% of the students want to stay in Australia when they graduate. In fact, the business wants a 90% permanent placement success rate on graduation. It is an immigration scam, with wealthy people buying their way into Australia. I suspect this will continue post virus.
C@tmomma
Cheers
Tehan ignoring Andrews strategy on testing.
Junkie.
I blame him for the US Opioid Epidemic.
PeeBee @ #142 Sunday, May 3rd, 2020 – 7:43 am
As I understand it, it’s hardly a scam, it’s the way the system was devised.
Did the military persona receive the same “bespoke restrictions’ the Ruby Rose passengers got on arrival?
😆 And bonus points for matching brooch.
lizzie @ #141 Sunday, May 3rd, 2020 – 9:42 am
Just have a cruise ship dock in Port Phillip. That’ll sort those uppity Mexicans out!
”Savva just hitting the nail on the head. Morrison’s Big Daddy threats and cajoling on downloading the app ‘does not work’. Australians don’t like it.”
I can attest to that. I inadvertently recorded Morrison’s press conference (it was supposed to be an episode of ”Death in Paradise”). I watched Morrison urging us to download the app and to urge everyone we know to download it. Patronising, condescending, talking down, ”I know what’s best for you”, his authoritarian instincts in full flight.
Made me want to delete the app I’d downloaded a few days before.