Three-cornered contestants

As candidates jockey for the early running in Eden-Monaro, the results of a reported Nationals internal poll, plus a couple of other things to be dubious about.

Bega Valley Shire mayor Kristy McBain has been anointed by Anthony Albanese as Labor’s candidate for the Eden-Monaro by-election, despite the fact that a designated nominations period had yet to expire. The Nationals have justified their optimism by providing The Australian ($) with an internal poll conducted immediately after Mike Kelly’s retirement announcement on Thursday, the paper’s report of which begins thus: “NSW Deputy Premier John Barilaro would win the Eden-Monaro by-election if he chooses to stand” (UPDATE: See account of weekend developments at the bottom of the post). This fact turns out to have been established by a 52-48 lead over Kristy McBain, and primary votes that have Barilaro leading hypothetical Liberal candidate Jim Molan by 30% to 21%, with McBain on 35% and Greens candidate Patrick McGinlay on 8%.

However, a report by David Crowe of the Age/Herald ($) suggests state Transport Minister and Bega MP Andrew Constance has been responsive to colleagues’ suggestions he should seek Liberal preselection, and Barilaro has said he will not run if Constance does. Furthermore, “some state sources said there was still a chance both men would pull back from the contest”. In that case, it would seem Fiona Kotvojs, who ran at the election last year, would get another run for the Liberals, and the Nationals would presumably go back to being uncompetitive. Candidacies of either or both of Barilaro and Constance respectively raise the prospect of state by-elections for the seats of Monaro (Nationals margin 11.6%) and Bega (Liberal margin 6.9%), neither of which are unloseable by the recent historic standards of by-elections.

In other news, Roy Morgan has conducted its occasional exercise of publishing the latest results of its federal voting polling, which these days it keeps to itself except when it believes it has identified a newsworthy angle to the results. Onthis occasion its a forceful swing to the Coalition that was missed by Newspoll, such that it now leads 51.5-48.5 after trailing 53-47 in polling from mid-March (compared with 51-49 from the Newspoll of the time). On the primary vote, the Coalition was up seven to 43.5%, Labor down three to 33%, the Greens up half to 11.5% and One Nation down one to 3%. Among the unanswered questions are what impact an apparent chopping and changing of survey methods may have had, with this latest result said to combine phone and online polling for a sample of 2806 over the two weekends just past. Many others besides have been canvassed by Kevin Bonham.

Then there’s the latest effort from Dynata for the Institute of Public Affairs, this time concerning coronavirus restrictions, which I’m not going to say anything about except that it’s out there. Among the questions respondents were invited to agree or disagree with was the following: “There should be an immediate easing of petty restrictions with appropriate social distancing in place”. If I were completing such a survey, my reaction to this question would be to recognise that I was being manipulated and refuse to complete it, and I suspect I’m not alone.

UPDATE (4/5/20): Conflicting signals on the John Barilaro front this morning, courtesy of apparently separate sources both said to be close to him. The Sydney Morning Herald ($) reported overnight that Barilaro would formally announce his intention not to run this morning, but The Australian ($) has been told that this is wrong and that Barilaro is still considering his position. The Herald reports claims from Liberals that Crosby Textor internal polling shows Andrew Constance would win the seat in canter, and that the state Liberals consider Constance’s seat of Bega to be easier to defend at a by-election than Barilaro’s seat of Monaro, which might fall to Shooters Fishers and Farmers or such like. Barilaro and Constance are apparently both on the record saying they will drop out if the other runs rather than expose the state government to two by-elections, which merely raises the question of which claim takes precedence.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,298 comments on “Three-cornered contestants”

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  1. Thanks, Soc. I hadn’t thought about it like that but my friend with breast cancer will probably benefit from not getting it, it’s a no fun flu.

  4. Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump
    ·
    1h
    I, for one, am glad to see he is back, and well!

    Two days ago he was intimating in a press conference that Kim’s disappearance from the public sphere was the subject of some kind of national security briefing. “I know but I can’t tell you” was what he said, as if something terrible had befallen the dictator.

  5. poroti

    It wasn’t a journo. It was a sub-editor looking for clicks making it up, and Jacqui Maley is now suffering from it.

  11. Greg Jericho

    Removing the addition to jobseeker will not help Australia out of the recession – on the contrary

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/commentisfree/2020/may/03/removing-the-addition-to-jobseeker-will-not-help-australia-out-of-the-recession-on-the-contrary

    And with that comes a big issue because not only is it abundantly obvious that the old rate was not enough to survive on, removing that doubling before the level of unemployment has begun to fall will only serve to exacerbate the lack of economic activity.

    There were two reasons the government doubled the jobseeker allowance. The first was pretty cynical to be honest.

    Due to the crisis, people who had not been unemployed for years, if ever, were now being expected to survive on a jobseeker allowance. The old rate was fine politically, but having a large mass of voters suddenly experiencing what life is like on $40 a day was not something that was conducive to winning their vote come election time.

    For 25 years no real increase to Newstart because “dole-bludgers” aka the undeserving unemployed and the pandering to the aspirational voters by both major parties. Voila – the pandemic – the deserving unemployed. How a crisis temporarily changes the discourse.

  12. poroti and mundo

    Of course. Turning on sarcasm and derision scanner. Though it’s a beautiful chilly, sunny and peaceful still autumn morning. Wonderful! Scanner turned off.

  13. Ah, so this is the idiot ‘responsible’. Maley is innocent of that particular crime, 🙂
    .

    Rodney Tiffen, emeritus professor of political science in the Department of Government and International Relations at the University of Sydney, says Morrison has gone from “daggy dad to ‘father of the nation’”

  14. From the content of Speers’ Friday essay, it seems that his theme will be China. He sets the background in these pieces each week. Doing his homework for Insiders. 🙂

  16. I guess that’s what makes me different to grubs like nath. I cared enough about the people around me to get up and go and have the COVID-19 test. Sure, it put MY mind at rest, but it also now allows me, and my son, to go and visit friends with the new home visits rule that NSW has. Also, he is just about to do a placement in an Aged Care facility and can now do it with the knowledge he is COVID-19 free.

  17. ‘The incredible shrinking opposition…’

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-incredible-shrinking-opposition-or-the-shrewd-alternative-government-20200501-p54p1y.html

    ‘If Labor had an identity crisis before COVID-19 – and I think it’s fairly safe to say it did – there’s no doubt it will have one after. But the good news for oppositions everywhere is that the caravan will move on and they will be part of the conversation again. They just need to figure out what to say.’

  18. Lizzie, I thought the same thing. Obviously he has never had to experience a potentially life threatening illness.

  20. poroti @ #62 Sunday, May 3rd, 2020 – 8:55 am

    Ah, so this is the idiot ‘responsible’. Maley is innocent of that particular crime, 🙂
    .

    Rodney Tiffen, emeritus professor of political science in the Department of Government and International Relations at the University of Sydney, says Morrison has gone from “daggy dad to ‘father of the nation’”

    Brave ‘roti, well done. Mundo couldn’t bring himself to read it.

  24. ‘A government that governs for its mates, and an opposition that has given up opposing…’

    A post from the cemments over at that Shrinking Opposition pice in the SMH

    Deeply cynical and defeatist comment.
    Mundo really hates to see this sort of thing in print.

  28. Mundo:’Deeply cynical and defeatist comment.
    Mundo really hates to see this sort of thing in print.’

    BS, Mundo writes those sorts of comments all the time.

  29. Thanks as usual to BK for the morning links!

    I haven’t finished reading all the articles yet, but I’m very glad to see that population policy (or rather, our lack of one) finally seems to be bubbling to the top of the pot. Australia has depended for far too long on population growth to simulate (not stimulate) genuine economic growth. It has meant that the wholesale destruction of of our local economy and home-grown industries has gone largely unnoticed. We were always going to pay a steep price eventually, but the sooner we realize how stupid we have been, the better off we will be in the long term.

  30. Mundo @8:58.
    ”But the good news for oppositions everywhere is that the caravan will move on and they will be part of the conversation again. They just need to figure out what to say.”

    Morrison is giving every indication that he is planning post-crisis (or maybe sooner) to accelerate the pace of the sort of “reform” he was already planning and further, to take advantage of the crisis to push the envelope as far as he can. Labor will have plenty to talk about.

  31. The very easy bit of the Virus has been done. The Virus is not dusted and will not be dusted until there is either or both of a cure and a vaccine.

    The smashing global and national economic impacts have barely started.

    The easy bit of that has been done as well. The promises of more than $200 billion but before the full impacts of state and federal revenues getting smashed are the easy bit.

    We are eating our economic past and borrowing against our economic future.

    Ladling out that much money is straining all ladling systems. Corruption is rampant and we all know that corruption and economic inefficiency go hand-in-hand. The $200 billion plus can only fake a real economy in the short run – possibly six months certainly not more than 12 months.

    Morrison’s mental furniture is 1950’s white picket fence. We know this because his first instinct was ‘Snap Back’. He has gone off this meme very quickly. This means he already realizes that economic recovery will not be quick. But the second element is the ‘back’, not the speed. Morrison wants to go back. He is mired in pre-Virus economic thinking. That this was precisely the economic thinking that was already leading to a tottering economy does not seem to have disturbed Morrison’s mental furniture.

  32. Pretty funny to watch the progressive left jump to the pro-rapist side of the #metoo movement.

    From Kavanagh to Biden from ‘believe women’ to ‘wow what liars they are’ it is almost like putting partisan interests before principle.

  33. WA public schools went back on Wednesday last week. Not sure about the independents and privates though.

  34. WeWantPaul @ #82 Sunday, May 3rd, 2020 – 7:16 am

    Pretty funny to watch the progressive left jump to the pro-rapist side of the #metoo movement.

    From Kavanagh to Biden from ‘believe women’ to ‘wow what liars they are’ it is almost like putting partisan interests before principle.

    It’s been disappointing to watch, I wouldn’t call it funny.

  36. WWP
    Have the Greens cleaned up their systemic and nasty problems in state after state after state with sexual harrassment yet?

  38. Phillip Lodge
    @phlogga
    ·
    1m
    Morrison wants schools back provided appropriate safety measures are in place. “Even I have a big sign outside my office showing how many people can be inside at the same time. Hand sanitizer at the door and we practice safe distancing” conclusion: He’s never been in a school.

    Niki Savva says Australians do not like being treated like schoolkids.

  39. Savva just hitting the nail on the head. Morrison’s Big Daddy threats and cajoling on downloading the app ‘does not work’. Australians don’t like it.

    This Australian does not like it at all. Every time downloading the App is mentioned by Morrison my immediate thought is ‘Fuck you, Morrison!’

  40. A key question on COVIDSafe is just how many of Australia’s population actually are in the position to download the app.

  41. Boerwar

    The illusion of ‘good economic management’ was propped up by gdp growth , growth based on immigration. The virus leaves the ‘one trick pony’ LNP with 1 dead pony and an empty stable. We’re stuffed, innovation,productivity growth, increased efficiency “What are those ?” asks the Rorter,Spiv and Maaates Coalition.

  46. BK @ #90 Sunday, May 3rd, 2020 – 7:20 am

    A key question on COVIDSafe is just how many of Australia’s population actually are in the position to download the app.

    I successfully downloaded it, but when I tried to install it was told my mobile number is invalid and couldn’t proceed.

  49. ‘Confessions says:
    Sunday, May 3, 2020 at 9:23 am

    I successfully downloaded it, but when I tried to install it was told my mobile number is invalid and couldn’t proceed.’

    Don’t worry. The every-trustworthy Robert is on your case.

  50. It’s been disappointing to watch men who have a particular political axe to grind jumping to the defense of any old woman making a sexual assault allegation and simply dismissing evidence that corroborates the accuseds’ explanation. Just because a woman makes an allegation of sexual assault doesn’t make it true. Sad to say, women have been using sex to bring down men for centuries, just as much as men have been sexually abusing women. I’m not taking one side or the other for politically advantageous reasons, I simply do not want to see an innocent person convicted by a kangaroo court of baying hyenas desperate for political blood.

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