Newspoll: 50-50

Scott Morrison gains further momentum in his remarkable but apparently voteless approval rating turnaround.

Courtesy of The Australian, the first Newspoll in three weeks is consistent with the last in suggesting the coronavirus surge in approval for Scott Morrison in translating into only a modest dividend on voting intention, on which the two parties are now tied after the Coalition opened up a 51-49 lead last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 41%, Labor up two to 36%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation down one to 4%. Despite that, Scott Morrison has gained further on his huge approval rating boost in the last poll, up seven to 68% — a level not seen since Kevin Rudd reached 70% in late 2008 — while his disapproval rating is down seven to 28%. Anthony Albanese is respectively steady at 45% and down two to 34% (I assume — the report says 36%, but this would be unchanged on last time), and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is now 56-28, out from 53-29. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1519.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

827 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

Comments Page 14 of 17
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  1. C@t……The evidence of your Sinophobia is not imaginary. It is to be found in the things you’ve declared here as a bludger. As recently as today you attributed the pandemic to geopolitical/strategic motives on the part of China. Consider what you’re actually saying here. It is hate-mongering. It is blame-making. It is conspiratorial thinking. It’s saying China has caused a global contagion that has led to hundreds of thousands of deaths and an incipient economic depression for its own political/military purposes.

    It’s saying this even though Chinese doctors were the first to notice and identify a new disease and to promptly publish the information; even though the same illnesses were being observed at the same time in Italy and, a few days later, in Iran. It’s saying this even though the Chinese economy has been badly hurt and will continue to experience contraction.

    The actual truth about the origins of the pandemic have yet to be identified, understood and reviewed. But this is not good enough for you. You want to blame China, one way or another.

    In another context, one of the most egregious anti-Semitic tropes was to cast Jews as carriers/importers of pestilence; and, further, to allege this was a part of an internationalist conspiracy against the Christians of Europe. Substitute Chinese for Jews and the trope is the same.

  2. guytaur @ #623 Monday, April 27th, 2020 – 7:32 pm

    GG

    Then why are you arguing against something Labor and as you assert you are for?

    Just because I pointed out business is calling for spending on social housing.

    Saying Labor should move left on this issue does not mean Labot should suddenly be radical communists.

    Round and round and round you go!

    Ever decreasing circles and you eventually disappear up your own clacker and start again.

  3. It would be great if we could have done more testing sooner.

    Unlike South Korea and Taiwan we did not have SARS impact to have resources or the culture for rapid take up.

  6. @guytaur

    I cannot see why the Labor parties both at a State and Federal level can go hard to the left. Especially given that Australia’s state and federal can borrow a huge amount of money, given that our federal and state governments have an excellent credit ratings by international standards.

  8. Scott @ #611 Monday, April 27th, 2020 – 7:24 pm

    Why is Morrison and his cronies so late in reacting on things

    1- Morrison and his cronies were late to react in the bushfires crisis

    2- Morrison was late in closing the borders and forcing mandatory isolation for those who arrive from overseas and for those who were infected with the corona virus.

    3- Morrison and his cronies are late in bigger numbers testing for the corona virus around Australia

    4. The punters think Scrooter is hot shit.

  10. A few weeks ago, Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R), in his role as head of the National Governors Association, asked for $500 billion to help states stabilize decimated budgets.

    But the White House and Senate Republicans blocked such aid in last week’s package.

    They said they feared that states and localities would move more slowly to reopen their economies if they received federal assistance. State and local leaders retorted that they will open their economies as soon as public health authorities say it’s safe to do so.

    “Every elected official wants to reopen their economy,” said Matthew Chase, executive director of the National Association of Counties. “We are incredibly disappointed that we are left behind and asked to wait for the next package.”

    The other argument against federal aid, voiced by McConnell, is that it would bail out states that he said have mismanaged their finances in the past, such as by incurring large pension obligations for teachers and other public employees.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/mcconnells-rejection-of-federal-aid-for-states-risks-causing-a-depression-analysts-say/2020/04/26/1fd4731c-8632-11ea-a3eb-e9fc93160703_story.html

    The irony of this is that it’s largely Republican governors and legislatures which have mismanaged their state finances.

  11. The ACT Liberals have joined their Victorian counterparts by demanding full school openings in term two.

    They have generally been very quiet until now but with the ACT election less than six months away, they are obviously trying to increase their media presence.

  12. “Buy a Greenfield if you can afford it. ”

    Many years ago we had a Greenfield Anniversary model. It was a real turkey. Apparently most Greenfields are better.

    Did Cox give up making mowers? I may be a little out of date here 🙂

  13. I’ve had enough of this for a while. I urge the bludgers to read the CNN report and to reflect on its contents. Researchers went looking for SARS-like corona viruses in bats. They found a lot. They also found examples of bat-to-human transmission among humans living in close proximity to bats. The the researchers went to Wuhan. They did the serology. There is a very strong genetic match between SARS2 and the bats of Yunnan. I’m going back to not bludging.

    I had a flu shot last week.
    I downloaded the App.

  15. “Should the testing of 50,000 people per week in mid March been achieved through some sort of compulsion”

    You could try a $20 gift voucher..

  16. It could be a long month for the Greens 😆

    Old battle lines within the Australian Greens have reopened as thousands of grassroots members take part in a month-long plebiscite to decide how the party will elect its future federal leaders.

    The party’s 15,000-strong membership base has begun voting on whether they will be given a direct voice in the election of future leaders, removing the right of the elected party room members to single-handedly make the decision.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/old-greens-wounds-reopen-as-members-vote-on-directly-electing-leader-20200422-p54m5r.html

    Perhaps the ballot is why you don’t hear from them anymore. Either that or Bandt is even more of an empty suit than his predecessor.

  17. Tristo

    The LNP cannot use debt as a defence. They outspent Labor by a lot.
    I disagree on the term hard left. I get your point about the LNP winning by being strong on their ideology.

    I agree Labor would do better to be strong on their ideology.

    Shorten failed due to complexity and confusion. It conveyed weakness.

    Whatever position Labor takes it needs to keep it simple.
    Use three word slogans.
    I don’t think Labor would lose by going hard left. However I think they can win by being more left economically than they are.
    A return to Whitlam style policies won’t hurt Labor post virus.
    It’s the economics of local jobs v globalisation that Labor has to thread the needle on. A bit more local protectionism without throwing out the advantages of globalisation is required.

    Edit: As I have said before. Basically I think Labor would do well with the Nordic model.

  18. Insufferable

    I’ve read some of that research. I find it fascinating. We really don’t know if the original source was a live animal at a Wuhan market, or if the infection was brought to the market by an animal trader (I’d think more likely) and the market acted as an amplifier. Or if it was just someone infected elsewhere who is not a trader who walked into the market and coughed on someone. We may never know. It amazes me how bitterly this is being fought over because in the end, its an interesting scientific question and that’s all.

  25. And btw…

    Zero cases in NT, SA, WA, ACT

    And 8 cases in the entire country. It won’t be long now before this is typical.

  27. briefly:

    Sorry to hear about your employment and financial troubles. Hopefully the outlook isn’t as grim as you think.

  29. Cud Chewer says:
    Monday, April 27, 2020 at 6:52 pm

    And on a completely different track.. can anyone recommend a decent value for money zero turn ride on mower? Mine is kaput
    ……………
    If you are not up to spending the coin on the high end jobs like Hustler or Walker, have a look at the Toro’s. There are some decent price points at the moment.
    And don’t buy from any of the big sheds, green or blue whatever.
    Go to a specialist dealer.

    And Insufferable, you certainly are.

  31. We’ve had a Torro for many years. Overpriced for what it was, when we could have got a more rugged Cox for less. Wasn’t my decision though.

  32. Cud….we know there is a 96% genetic match for bats found in a cave in Yunnan in 2013 and SARS2, as we now know it. We know that bat-to-human transmission had taken place in Yunnan in 2015, and that the symptoms of infection were indiscernible to those affected. We know the virus became pathogenic. We know it mutated after leaping from bats. We know it’s being spread by human-to-human transmission and can surmise this reflects adaptation by the virus to its new host. We also have examples of the virus spreading from humans to other mammals.

    This is about the transmissibility of a virus between populations. There are a lot of possibilities. If we’re going to understand the virus and to handle its likely prevalence and persistence, they have to be investigated. Ignorance is not enough.

    Cheers

  37. Confessions says:
    Monday, April 27, 2020 at 8:21 pm
    briefly:

    Sorry to hear about your employment and financial troubles. Hopefully the outlook isn’t as grim as you think.

    Thanks Confessions. I will find a way to eke out a living. I’m currently living in a shed, rent-free. Fuck knows what will happen. I have $200. That’s good.

  38. Where I am working at the moment we have had a fever clinic open 10 hours 7 days since late March. At the weekends they see an average of 4 people per day. On Mondays it’s usually about 17. Perhaps a day off work could have been used to get “50,000” tests per week

  39. The obvious question is….if corona viruses are so prevalent among bats and yet are not dangerous to bats, what is it about bat immunology that confers this advantage on them?

  40. Oakeshott Country @ #692 Monday, April 27th, 2020 – 8:29 pm

    Where I am working at the moment we have had a fever clinic open 10 hours 7 days since late March. At the weekends they see an average of 4 people per day. On Mondays it’s usually about 17. Perhaps a day off work could have been used to get “50,000” tests per week

    Get rid of the “Doctor’s Certificate” and your industry is fucked!

  42. Yep, that’s why they got upset when the ruddster tried to give pharmacists and nurses (nurses!) the power to issue certificates

  44. The covid testing facility at the Sydney Eye Hospital looks like it will need to drag a few of the customers wandering the courtyard with eye patches on to build up some clientele.

  45. Yep, that’s why they got upset when the ruddster tried to give pharmacists and nurses (nurses!) the power to issue certificates

    ‘Upset’ is the understatement of the day.

    They are still rather miffed pharmacies can administer flu jabs.

  46. It amazes me how bitterly this is being fought over because in the end, its an interesting scientific question and that’s all.

    Get with the program, Cuddly.

    If you believe the virus originated in Wuhan, you’re a racist bastard, redneck White Australianista.

    If you believe it incubated somewhere n a village outside of Milan, or Qom, or Seoul or somewhere other than China, you’re Insufferable.

    Make a choice.

  50. Oh please. *rolls eyes* These reactionary News corp people are always so overly melodramatic. Equating people who refuse to download an app with people who refuse to vaccinate their kids is just just ridiculous.

    Sky News host Chris Kenny says public opposition to the government’s newly released COVIDSafe contact tracing app “is either silly or paranoid, or both”.

    On Monday, Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy had said he was “so proud” of the “gratifying” number of Australians who have downloaded the COVIDSafe contract tracing app.

    More than 1.13 million Australians have downloaded the app since its launch on Sunday evening, a result Dr Murphy labelled “exciting”.

    “I signed up yesterday,” Mr Kenny said.

    He said “anti-appers are just as dangerous as the anti-vaxxers, and they are just as selfish, making a silly stand for themselves that can only make this pandemic more problematic for the rest of us”.

    https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6152259538001

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