The Guardian reports Essential Research’s latest weekly reading of concern about coronavirus finds satisfaction with the government’s handling of the crisis up two points to 65%, its best result yet out of the five such polls that have been published (no sign yet of the poor rating, which hit a new low of 17% – the full report later today should reveal all).
Last week’s question on state governments’ responses was repeated this week, and with due regard to sample sizes that run no higher than around 320 (and not even in triple figures in the case of South Australia), the good ratings have been 56% last week and 61% for New South Wales; 76% and 70% for Victoria; 52% and 63% for Queensland; 79% and 77% for Western Australia; and 72% and 66% for South Australia. Combining the results gives New South Wales 58.5% and Victoria 73% with error margins of about 3.7%; Queensland 57.5% from 4.6%; Western Australia 78% from 5.5%; and South Australia 69% from 6.9%.
Also included are Essential’s occasion question on trust in various institutions, which suggests that all of the above might be benefiting from a secular effect that has federal parliament up from 35% to 53% and the ABC up from 51% to 58%. The effect is more modest for the Australian Federal Police, up two points to 68%. In other coronavirus-related findings, the poll finds “half of all voters think it’s too soon to even consider easing restrictions“, with a further 14% saying they are prepared to wait until the end of May; that 38% said they would download the virus-tracing app, with 63% saying they had security concerns and 35% being confident the data would not be misused.
UPDATE: Full report here.
NSW re-opening schools one day a week, with hopes of students returning full time by the end of term 2, as we head into flu season, is such an ingenious plan…
@EVERALDATLARGE tweets
The incredible has happened. #Oil has no value. Huge pay back for oil barons who have plundered our lives for a century. Lets fix them forever by producing #ElectricCars & #hydrogencars as soon as possible.
Edit: I hope the administrators of Virgin have been buying aviation fuel at rock bottom prices.
guytaur, quoting Sally McManus: “They can choose to save the jobs of 16,000 Virgin Australia workers, or they can choose to abandon all these workers and hand Qantas a monopoly.”
But my point is, short of nationalising Virgin, how can any government guarantee the jobs of privately-employed people, many of whom have no work to perform? And, with large numbers of people working in the retail and hospitality industry having already lost their jobs and now being on Newstart, why should the Virgin employees – many of whom are highly paid (in the $200k+ per annum bracket that people of your political persuasion would probably describe as “rich”) – be privileged in this way?
I just don’t get it. And, as I said, the concern about a monopoly could be addressed by ensuring a separation of the ownership between QANTAS and Jetstar down the track.
LR – wasn’t a criticism of the choice of a log-normal distribution. It would be interesting to know if there’s a “conventional” choice. I think what makes this hard is that the usual choices are based on things like exponential growth of bacteria, where detection isn’t an issue. Here detection isn’t 100% as soon as a case occurs, which makes it much murkier.
Cud Chewer @ #144 Tuesday, April 21st, 2020 – 11:48 am
Yesterday (I think) Ardern was talking about lifting restrictions, and Palaszczuk was talking about holding firm. Not sure what that means, but it will be interesting to see the decisions.
I would argue that the nationalisation of the domestic airlines would be the way to go. Because they are an integral part of the transportation network between the states and in much of regional Australia as well.
Ideally at the same time as well, plans for a national high speed railway system connecting the major cities and bigger regional cities should be drawn up. Along with both the federal and state governments upgrading the rest of the railway system to allow trains to travel as fast as 200 kph.
Holdenhillbilly
Dr Tony heads Health. That is MORE than bizarre!!
baba
We want locally owned domestic aircraft.
I think a government owned Qantas operating with the legacy of Virgin competing against overseas on domestic routes would work well.
However the government would have to abandon its pretence of a Free Market to do that.
In the meantime Labor is exactly right about the role of government. Its to look after Australian citizens and their jobs. Not bail out billionaire or millionaire owners of airlines.
Edit: Plus what Tristo posted about high speed rail.
If not Virgin, why Adani?
LR
New Zealand going back to level 3 in a week. QLD is getting better but still has some local transmission.
guytaur says:
Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 11:32 am
frednk
Yes your whining really is boring
At least you understand the emotion.
Blobbit, FWIW I tried normal, y=f(x), and two different log normal distributions y=f(log(t/tm)) and y=f(log(t-t0)), eventually settling on log(t-t0) where t0 is the day before the first cases were reported. That shape seemed to fit best. 🙂
Jackol: “A car industry would be really handy at the moment, and into the future, to provide a backbone of manufacturing capability, and a broader ecosystem of developing and producing stuff locally.”
Featuring relatively low-skilled jobs and subsidised by government to within an inch of its life. No thanks.
I’d rather take any money that anyone wants to waste on subsidies for this sort of manufacturing (including building ships and submarines and the rest) and invest it in boosting R&D in the renewables sector. Or on skilling up a workforce to work on recovering and protecting key environmental assets: waterways, wilderness areas, habitats of endangered species.
If the coronavirus pandemic was likely to shut down global trade for a prolonged period, there would be some benefit in renewing local mass production manufacturing. But I don’t think that’s going to happen, so Australia needs to continue to focus on stimulating investment in high-tech and high-skilled production in areas such as food, fibre and energy – and in locality-specific sectors such as tourism, education and the construction of infrastructure and housing.
“GoldenSmaugsays:
Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 11:58 am
Either we are a free market or we are not. Personally a free market is either free, in as much as Labour is free to organise as they fit and Capital is free to deal with such organised Labour OR it’s not a free market and therefore any pretense should be dropped.”
Yep. I’m convinced. We should also stop all these extra payments. Either we’re a free market or we’re not. People should just go find another job.
The problem is that at the moment times aren’t normal. I don’t have a problem with governments helping businesses, but on the proviso that it isn’t condition free. And I think that it’s fair that the government get some return once this is over.
meher baba
The ‘car industry’ was not just ‘assembly line’ workers . Perhaps BK has the time to enlighten you of how much engineering,electronics and the like were involved. Lots of very much non stereotype ‘blue collar’ jobs. Automation and robotics for a start. Plenty of expertise that can be transferred to other industries.
FredNK
I will put it in perspective for you.
You are a toothless tiger complaining about the fact the convoy of the Greens was effective.
Thats the reality even if it wasn’t the way intended as the polls were wrong.
You keep blaming the Greens for believing the polls like Labor did.
Now of course the virus has proven conclusively what the Greens have been saying all along. Newscorp and the LNP are totally wrong science has to come before politics. Reality has consequences.
So good of you to show your projection with claims of toothless Greens.
GoldenSmaug @11.58am
“At this stage Australia’s “free market economy” is nothing more than a bunch of corporate teat suckers where government stacks the deck based on the loudest voice and biggest wallet.”
All the talk that goes with this accurate description of free market economy is just garnish, stuffing and a variety of sauces to suit the taste.
And until the punters are starving, the likes of Judas, no cor values and the secret police make hay!
“Let them play bowls: Perth navy veteran calls for common sense around aged care restrictions”
Why I hate people saying we should do X because it’s “common sense”
This pandemic is a minor blip in the scheme of things – it doesn’t have a direct impact on trade per se – and yet it very quickly exposed how fragile our supply chains are, and how much we depend on a stable world order in order to maintain our supplies of some of the most basic items.
My concerns over our broader manufacturing capability are not about this pandemic – it’s the prospect that a serious disruption to the stability of the global order would leave us entirely exposed and vulnerable. Global/significant regional conflict, for example, and/or disruption caused by global warming.
In strategic terms I consider letting our car manufacturing capability go down the gurgler to be a serious mistake that we will come to regret in the not too distant future, almost regardless of what the dollars and cents of subsidization were.
There is no good reason why we can’t have a viable car manufacturing industry. The thing stopping us seems to be the quality of Australian management rather than any fundamental structural reasons. Well, except that poor quality Australian management seems to be an intractable structural problem.
poroti
I was someone who didn’t realise the wide range of skills and associated industries that were included in “car manufacturing”. I suspect that Hockey et al were pretty oblivious, as well.
Blobbit @ #168 Tuesday, April 21st, 2020 – 12:25 pm
As a bowler I can say it is not really common sense.
Playing 4 to a side, at least two people but probably 4, would handle the jack. On some greens there is limited space to spread out, especially if you want to sit down while waiting. A pennant game can take 4 plus hours being out in company.
Yes some individual practice may be OK but not any sort of real game.
Ryan StruykVerified account @ryanstruyk
Reported US coronavirus cases:
8 weeks ago: 53 cases
7 weeks ago: 102 cases
6 weeks ago: 678 cases
5 weeks ago: 4,459 cases
4 weeks ago: 42,663 cases
3 weeks ago: 160,698 cases
2 weeks ago: 398,809 cases
1 weeks ago: 582,594 cases
Right now: 786,638 cases
Reported US coronavirus deaths:
7 weeks ago: 6 deaths
6 weeks ago: 26 deaths
5 weeks ago: 86 deaths
4 weeks ago: 541 deaths
3 weeks ago: 3,003 deaths
2 weeks ago: 10,986 deaths
1 week ago: 23,649 deaths
Right now: 42,295 deaths
Reported US coronavirus deaths:
Feb. 20: 0 deaths
Mar. 20: 249 deaths
Apr. 20: 42,295 deaths
Meher at her condescending ignorant best.
“laughtongsays:
Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 12:35 pm
As a bowler I can say it is not really common sense.”
That’s the problem with common sense, it tends to mean different things to different people. It’s why I’m never impressed with it as a justification.
People aged 60+ can access super so a part pension could help and reduce the unemployment numbers.
Bobbitt and laughing
Common Sense is taking the advice of experts in their field instead of that of economists talking out of their butt.
It’s a false narrative to justify idiocy.
Blobbit
I went right off ‘common sense” when I noticed how often people like Pauline Hanson claim to have it 🙂
I’ve heard that it’s common sense that kids shouldn’t be going to school quite a bit lately….
Poland has joined Denmark
@arnthorjon tweets
Denmark and Poland are refusing to bail out companies registered in offshore tax havens
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-companies-tax-havens-banned-denmark-poland-bailout-2020-4?r=US&IR=T
Blobbit @ #168 Tuesday, April 21st, 2020 – 12:25 pm
Funny how it’s always what THEY are missing doing, isn’t it?
Three score years and ten plus five is pretty damn good.
Happy birthday and many happy returns, BK.
You are one beacon of continuity in an otherwise wonky world.
poroti: “Plenty of expertise that can be transferred to other industries.”
So how much of that expertise was transferred when the car industry folded 5 or so years back?
A thought on the “tracing app”, well several actually.
The way I understand it is that the app will turn your phone into a broadcaster, repeatedly and constantly “pinging” the world around you with your phone number. Anyone nearby can listen in and record three things: your phone number, the signal strength, and the date and time. Never mind transmitting that data to Hunt’s or Dutton’s department for their use, what about non-government uses?
You wouldn’t need the original app to listen, you could have a different app that just listens. Even if the government app doesn’t transmit location, your location could be “triangulated”. And phones are cheap enough that you could monitor who comes and goes from your apartment, or shop, or office, or school, or church, or anywhere you want to surveil. Hackers too must be salivating. (And other devices too have bluetooth capabilities.) This isn’t straightforward.
Frednk
An addition. Labor is supposed to also believe in environmental regulations.
Tony Burke’s and Bob Carr’s claims to fame are national parks. Rightly so. These require environmental regulation.
Some consistency from Labor would be good.
lizzie @ #170 Tuesday, April 21st, 2020 – 12:27 pm
Of course they knew. It was a deliberate “hollowing out” of the Australian economy.
meher baba
I don’t know about then but I do know that ZERO is the amount now and ever more.
Anyone want to do the NSW government’s survey about plastics in our environment and what to do about them?
https://yoursay.dpie.nsw.gov.au/plastics-plan/short-survey
”Denmark and Poland are refusing to bail out companies registered in offshore tax havens”
Way to go. They can ask the Cayman Islands to bail them out.
@Late Riser
If it is confirmed we experience a second wave of COVID-19 infections. It is likely IMO that both the federal and especially state governments might be hesitant to lift many of the restrictions until maybe deep into Spring. Indeed they might tighten them again at least in areas where there are outbreaks of COVID-19.
There’s going to be a Zoom chat on Friday with Dr Andrew Leigh about policies that we should take forward as Progressives post COVID-19. If you are interested in joining in, become a Fabian today and let us have your thoughts on Friday!
Rich activate pandemic escape plans
Rising S Co has planted about 10 private bunkers in New Zealand over the past several years. The average cost is $US3 million ($4.7 million) for a shelter weighing about 150 tons, but it can easily go as high as $US8 million with additional features like luxury bathrooms, game rooms, shooting ranges, gyms, theatres and surgical beds.
Some Silicon Valley denizens have already made the move to New Zealand as the pandemic has escalated. On March 12, Mihai Dinulescu decided to pull the plug on the cryptocurrency start-up he was launching to flee to the remote country. “My fear was it was now or never as I thought they might start closing borders,” said Dinulescu, 34. “I had this very gripping feeling that we needed to go.”
Dinulescu packed his bags and left his furniture, television, paintings and other belongings with friends. He bought the earliest plane ticket available and within 12 hours the Harvard University alum and his wife were on a 7am flight bound for Auckland. In San Francisco, “the entire international section of the airport was empty – except for one flight to New Zealand,” Dinulescu said. “In a time when pretty much all planes were running on a third occupancy, this thing was booked solid.”
https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/rich-activate-pandemic-escape-plans-20200421-p54lmg
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
In light of the attack from the Invisible Enemy, as well as the need to protect the jobs of our GREAT American Citizens, I will be signing an Executive Order to temporarily suspend immigration into the United States!
Barney: “Meher at her condescending ignorant best.”
Just wanting to protect taxpayers’ dollars from ending up in the pockets of those at the “big end of town”: and the people who benefit the most from throwing buckets of government subsidies at unviable businesses are not mum and dad investors but are the real silvertails.
It seems that I am far more right-wing than you and most other posters on this blog. Its true that I am strongly in favour private enterprise. But, in my book, it needs not only to be private, but also a genuine enterprise: not just some entitled private school graduates masquerading as business people looking for the government to underwrite their profits.
A time-worn strategy that these people engage in is to get the backing of the union movement for vague promises of training in/transfer of new skills to the ever-dwindling workforces of these dinosaur industries.
Manufacturing might well rebound in Australia fairly soon, as technological innovation makes local production more competitive once again. But the workforce will largely comprise highly-skilled engineers and technicians: there won’t be much if any demand for the type of low-skilled employee who used to work on our car production lines.
And more’s the pity, because I have no idea how we are ever going to find employment for many of the younger generation of Australian-born low-skilled workers, particularly the males. But old-style manufacturing isn’t going to provide the solution to this puzzle.
I have been following closely how the pandemic has been developing in America. Well, some are predicting another huge wave of COVID-19 infections, in the inland states of America. I am expecting that over the next several months, that hundreds of thousands of excess deaths could occur in America.
If that happens in America then both our federal and state governments will be extremely hesitant to lift many of the restrictions and could re-tighten them in areas with COVID-19 outbreaks. Also, I see even more stimulus measures being passed as well.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/21/australia-coronavirus-live-updates-oil-nsw-victoria-qld-schools-latest-news-update?page=with:block-5e9e4d3e8f0895b8b228334f#block-5e9e4d3e8f0895b8b228334f
90% foreign ownership is an interesting metric. I wonder how this value was chosen and what the argument was for 80%. I suppose some employers are more valuable than others. (And perhaps it’s never been about the employees.)
Tristo @ #190 Tuesday, April 21st, 2020 – 1:03 pm
With some input today on PB (thanks) I’m backing away from my initial thought that it’s a second wave. Maybe it’s more accurate to say that we’ve “entered a a second stage”. But either way, I think it’s too soon to know for sure. We’ll have to see.
Smoko is on shortly.
Player One:
The process had all the hallmarks of the sort of indifferent incompetence for which Messrs Hockey and Abbott (and Sen Corrmann) are renowned.
In fact Mr Abbott would tend to favour having a car industry, so long as it was making honest “Aussie” coal rollers doing at best three miles to the gallon and not any of that airy fairy full efficient fakery, let alone the mobile electric chairs that are electric vehicles (how many teslas do you want running up and down your spine, anyway). Actually, I seem to recall he said something recently about bringing back the car industry – going full weathervane, so to speak.
poroti: “I don’t know about then but I do know that ZERO is the amount now and ever more.”
Well, that makes sense, although I’m sure there are skilled former car industry employees working in places like the Adelaide shipyards: although they are also totally dependent for their survival on government largesse.
Leaving aside the Asian manufacturing explosion, the yet to be fully mobilised manufacturing workforce – much of it quite skilled – which is available, at much lower wages, in former Iron Curtain countries is going to make it very difficult for manufacturing workers in many Western countries to compete for many years to come, unless their jobs are subsidised extensively by government.
I don’t think Australia has lost much by losing whatever capabilities it had to produce petrol-driven internal combustion engine cars. If we want to get back into car-making, let’s aim for the high tech renewable energy end of the market.