I’ll be taking part in the Political Geekfest videocast through Zoom with Peter Lewis of Essential Research and Katharine Murphy of the Guardian Australia at 1pm AEST today, which you can register for here. The subject of discussion will be this:
• The Guardian reports on another Essential Research poll focusing mostly on coronavirus, which would appear to be a weekly thing at least for the time being. The latest poll finds 59% rating the government’s response as about right, up from 46% last week and 39% in the two previous weekly polls; 13% rating it an overreaction, continuing its downward trajectory from 33% to 18% to 17%; and 29% rating it an underreaction, which bounced around over the first three weeks from 28% to 43% to 37%. Respondents were also asked to rate their state governments’ reactions, though with sample sizes too small to be of that much use at the individual level: the combined responses for very good and quite good were at 56% for New South Wales, 76% for Victoria, 52% for Queensland, 79% for Western Australia and 72% for South Australia. The poll also records a surprisingly high level of general morale, producing an average 6.7 rating on a scale of one to ten, unchanged from May last year. The full report should be published later today. UPDATE: Full report here.
• Also apparently a weekly thing is Roy Morgan’s coronavirus polling, which is being conducted online and not by SMS as I previously assumed – indeed, I believe this is the first online polling Morgan has ever published. Last week’s tranche showed a sharp rise in approval of the government’s handling of the matter from a week previous, with 21% strongly agreeing the government was handling the matter well (up twelve), 44% less strongly agreeing (up ten), 23% disagreeing (down ten) and 6% strongly disagreeing (down ten). Respondents had also become more optimistic since the previous week (59% saying the worst was yet to come, down 26 points, 33% saying the situation would remain the same, up 22 points, and 8% expecting things to improve, up four), and, contra Essential, slightly more inclined to consider the threat was being exaggerated (up five points to 20%, with disagreement down six to 75%). The poll was conducted last weekend from a sample of 987.
I think we are agreeing!
citizen @2:57
Brendan has been a fly in the ointment from day one. Have a read of my post at 2:09pm regarding the Conversation article from yesterday and the frankly dangerous spin he’s using.
The CMO:
1. Goes off half-cocked about a rumour but does so in a national interview.
2. Bad mouths front line HCWs who are currently in home pokey because they (and their families) risked their lives.
3. Sort of resiles on fucking twitter of all things.
4. Does not apologize.
Next, please.
A bit of political history from Hugh Riminton.
https://10daily.com.au/views/a200414yvomf/hugh-riminton-the-best-newsman-youve-never-heard-of-quits-the-field-20200414
victoria
All good here atm. Makes a nice change for OH.
How are your OH and son handling no footy. I’m missing it. It’s my only outlet to curse and swear when my team is hard done by – politely, of course.
Altho I’m with nath. I become more apoplectic when we somehow land on Paul Murray Live. He is something else!! We last 1 second but too late – we’ve given him a click in his rating. Uggh
Boerwar @ #452 Tuesday, April 14th, 2020 – 3:35 pm
Yes, needs to be ‘managed out’.
The way i look at it. The quality of the people in senior roles is a reflection of the quality of that business or government. So instead of criticising Murphy i see a man that reflects the poor quality of the government in office.
Zeh,
If you are around, I hope you and your family are OK.
WWP: “Is the illegal dinner party thing true?”
If you read the words being used by Tasmanian and Federal officials, it does appear that there is a strong rumour going around that such a dinner party took place: although exactly when, is not clear.
What also isn’t at all clear is whether or not anybody actually contracted the virus there. It’s surely quite possible that they didn’t: after all, there were several patients with the virus in the hospital and it could be that it spread directly from them to the medical staff.
Beemer @3:28
“Murphy is held up as an expert but is a career director that was once a doctor of some kind. If we treated him as a normal public servant then his approach would make more sense because its more akin to implementing the government’s policies instead of being seen as offering some kind of special advice.”
Brendan is a kidney specialist who is also a member of the Australian Institute of Company Directors.
He’s not independent by any means. But worse, his behaviour since the start of this crisis is anything but independent, rational and scientific. Check out my post @2:09 as an example of the kind of non scientific nonsense he’s capable of spouting.
Sadly, there are some people who will defend him because they “look up to the man”. He simply doesn’t deserve this. He’s failed.
lizzie
Thanks for the Hugh Rimmington piece. A good story from a different era.
Pleased for you that your son sold his land. Well done in this surreal time, No matter how old they are we still worry about our kids and any problems they have.
Alpha Zero @ #369 Tuesday, April 14th, 2020 – 2:06 pm
Jeez I wish I was fuckin 16 again so I could fuckin enjoy this fuckin sophisticated shit….
BH
I’m glad that isolation is working out to your advantage and not making anything more of a burden for you. 🙂
Rational Leftist @ #402 Tuesday, April 14th, 2020 – 2:42 pm
‘I think we can put to sleep the “steady as she goes” mantra that has been clinged-to here over so many years.’
Hallelujah.
From this mornings news links
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/there-is-now-an-exit-path-to-550m-a-day-lockdown-20200413-p54je7
The AFR relentlessly pursuing the “lets go back to normal” mantra. The weak part of their argument is the assumption that it is possible to reduce restrictions in an economically meaningful way whilst at the same time keeping infections to a low level. This is just an empty proposition without the weight of evidence. Indeed the article says..
Well, fair enough, its a valid question. But then he writes
Which just highlights how little this author (and those like him) have really thought through the fine detail. For a start, tourism, entertainment etc represent a large chunk of the economy. If instead we achieved elimination we’d be able to reopen almost everything and get higher economic benefit. Something that never rates a mention in the AFR.
Schools should not at this point reopen. The reason should be pretty obvious. The effective reproduction rate of the virus is pretty finely balance. It appears to be in our favour right now. Opening school may shift things a few percent, but those few percent may make all the difference.
What other non essential services is he talking about? The problem here is that in order to ease restrictions in a way that is meaningful means bringing crowds back to city centres and public transport. That alone could turn a few cases into a few thousand cases in weeks.
These guys just haven’t thought it through. If they had, they’d realise the only practical, sane and sustainable end game is elimination.
mundo @ #460 Tuesday, April 14th, 2020 – 4:00 pm
‘Labor definitely could do better tbh’
Double Hallelujuah.
Airlines smairlines………..
Any “buying in”, “equity” stuff is just nationalisation by another name.
As I said earlier….and taking on board the “17,000 Virgin jobs” someone mentioned earlier, the above is a case of spending $5 billion on a foreign owned airline (and the taxes?) to “save” 17,000 jobs and prevent a private company, Qantas, from becoming a monopoly. Now, if it was Labor suggesting this then it would be ……………………….socialism……………………….Why was it not suggested at the time to do the same for the Big Four banks in 2007? Why, because the right-wing of politics would have gone off their political trolley to scream “socialism”………………….Or, are airlines, like banks just “too big to fail”?
That’s why I love politics………….the hypocrisy abounds which makes it all so fascinating. To see this current government -all “free market” and “free enterprise”, and “freedom of choice” and a million other cliches throw these beliefs out the window for political survival and expediency…..
To be fair, our local little LNP lot are not alone as we watch the likes of Bojo throw money around in the UK which would have got JC (that is the politician) hung, drawn, quartered and tarred head put on spike on London Bridge, if he had done the same thing….
Thinking about that.
There are a lot of “essential” businesses, like airlines, that the government could buy fairly cheaply right now.
Not a very impressive interview from Jacqui Lambie.
Has the NT closed all of its borders?
The solution to the airline problem is pretty simple – allow overseas based airlines to fly our domestic routes. Perhaps start with letting the Kiwis in to test the water.
What’s even better there will be massive entertainment form Qantas squealing like a stuck pig. They’ve been getting a cushy ride for a long time being a private business trading off the “national carrier” image.
Zero new cases for the ACT today. Sequence (from memory) for the last 9 days: 0,1,2,1,3,0,0,1,0.
The 2 known flies in the ointment: two cases where the source appears to be unknown.
‘Cud Chewer says:
Tuesday, April 14, 2020 at 4:14 pm
Has the NT closed all of its borders?’
3 bitumen roads and the airports?
CC
There appears to be a serious campaign from the reactionaries in the media for the economy to be reopened. The AFR was the early leader but it now joined by journalist and commentators at the Australian and Sky.
I’m not sure if its a real concern for the economy or a fear of losing control of the agenda. The AFR will often go on mini campaigns while going into bat for their favorites. We saw that during the Banking RC when they stuck the boot into Catherine Brenner while defending Ian Narev as a good boy that wanted to be liked so didn’t ask questions.
lizzie
If it is was from last night’s Q&A, Lambie was a bit of a shambles.
“The 2 known flies in the ointment: two cases where the source appears to be unknown.”
Is that today? Which source of data?
C Ch
yep
https://www.covid19.act.gov.au/
Beemer
The sad thing is that even if you don’t give a shit about people’s lives and all you care about is the dollars, the last thing you want is an economy where business confidence and investment is dead because you don’t know when the second wave is coming.
Antony Green on twitter: ttps://twitter.com/AntonyGreenABC/status/1249266302532763650
“The final margin of victory for the LNP in Paddington was 311 votes. Labor’s preferences split 46.7% to the Greens, 11.5% to the LNP, 41.8% exhausted. #BrisbaneVotes #qldpol”
——————————————–
Gorks @doumamai Apr 12
Replying to @AntonyGreenABC
Antony, any idea what the results would have looked like under compulsory preferencing? Any wards you see changing hands?
Antony Green @AntonyGreenABC Apr 12
I haven’t done any modelling, but Paddington would have been won by the Greens. Labor would have had a chance in Coorparoo, Enoggera and Northgate.
———————————————————————-
Optional preferential voting and 41.8% of ALP voters exhausted their preferences rather than voting for a Greens over the LNP. Says it all.
Boerwar
She was on Karvelas this arvo. Rambled a bit, refused to comment on anything said by Labor but praised Frydenberg. Gave the impression to me that she’s a bit lost, so Karvelas asking for answers wasn’t kind.
l
At one level she has some gut honesty. Unfortunately she launches from the gut in a scattergun way.
At a higher policy level, IMO, she is all at sea, ATM.
BW
What I get from that site is this..
https://www.covid19.act.gov.au/news-articles/act-covid-19-update-14-april-2020
Where is the breakdown into categories of transmission?
Mexicanbeemer
They’ll be terrified that if all this ‘socialism’ keeps going much longer it might become permanent. Especially if the sky does not fall in .
C ch
Try:
https://www.covid19.act.gov.au/news-articles/act-covid-19-update-14-april-2020
I hope Border Force is ready to repel any cruise liners headed for Darwin!
Nothing on that page that tells you how many in the “local unknown” category.
The reason I ask is that my source (which hasn’t updated for today) shows a consistent zero on that score
https://www.covid19data.com.au/transmission-sources
c
The systemic problem in the NT is that many communities incorporate behavioural routines designed to defeat whitefella policing.
COVID-19-branded racist vandalism appears as second Nazi flag pops up in regional Victoria
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-13/coronavirus-racism-blamed-nazi-flag-appears-in-regional-victoria/12145166
OK I found the official page.
https://coronavirus.nt.gov.au/community-advice/border-controls
Pretty thorough.
Pegasus says:
Tuesday, April 14, 2020 at 4:22 pm
….
Optional preferential voting and 41.8% of ALP voters exhausted their preferences rather than voting for a Greens over the LNP. Says it all.
So the Greens continual attack on Labor has consequences. Karma is a bitch.
“WA workers to ‘roll up sleeves’ to test vaccine
By Hannah Barry
Thousands of WA healthcare workers will take part in a new trial to test whether an existing tuberculosis vaccine will reduce their chance of contracting COVID-19.”
Interesting
Boerwar
Yes. I think that’s why she gives in to LNP blandishments. She imagines she’s smarter than she is.
BH
They are missing the footy season. Footy would be a very welcome distraction if the season were able to start up again.
Whatayoudo……
Report from Anthony Green:
Reports that the Greens have pulled into second place in Coorparoo, but it doesn’t change the result with the LNP’s Fiona Cunningham stil winning. Labor preferences 39% to Greens, 12% LNP, 49% exhausting. #BrisbaneVotes
The ALP have to be very worried about October. I wonder if they will deny considering a Coalition with the Greens?
Universities spend $110 million to support international students
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/universities-spend-110-million-to-support-international-students-20200413-p54jf9.html
Blobbit
Interesting but it will take a very large group and a lot of time to have statistically significant results. Indeed if the virus is eliminated soon, it may well be inconclusive.
CC: “These guys just haven’t thought it through. If they had, they’d realise the only practical, sane and sustainable end game is elimination.”
Elimination would be a fantastic end game if it were truly achievable. But you need to face the fact that many people in positions of power, including medical experts, are far from convinced that it can be achieved quickly, if at all.
To quote the Daley-Duckett article to which you like to refer:
“Mathematicians in New Zealand have estimated there is a 50 per cent chance that their current restrictions will eliminate the virus in 90 days from lockdown (about 11 weeks from now), and their estimates are consistent with modelling from the universities of Sydney and Melbourne. The good news is that actual experience in New Zealand and Australia over the past few weeks seems consistent with these models.”
I think there are many political leaders, and an even greater number of ordinary people, who are far from convinced that 3 months of totally trashing our economy for a 50 per cent chance of eliminating the virus represents a good deal.
The situation in Spain remains dire, and yet politicians (from a ruling party that can hardly be considered to be a great friend of business interests) are already champing at the bit to lift some controls so that normal economic activity can return as soon as possible. I simply don’t believe that most governments in the world are prepared to keep harsh controls in place for too much longer.
As the much reviled (on this forum) Brendan Murphy told the NZ parliamentarians this morning, even though NZ seems to have a stated “elimination” goal and Australia doesn’t, both countries are more or less on the same track and “if we get rid of it, that would be great.” In other words, as I have posted before, the Australian Government sees elimination as being not the main target, but a stretch target. And how big an improvement is that compared to the target of a few weeks back, which was simply to avoid becoming like Italy.
Most countries in the world are going to keep controls in place for as long as they feel they can.
But no nation can hope to survive long in this world without a functioning economy. We haven’t ever chosen to close down all economic activity because of the seasonal winter flu, which causes 1,500 to 3,000 deaths in Australia every year, as opposed to the 60 or so that coronavirus has killed to date.
What I’m saying might sound heartless, but turning Australia into an economic ruin destined to experience low growth, high taxes, and reduced welfare payments for a decade or more would be even more heartless IMO.
Eight hours later —–
Anti-paywall accounts for many sites including 👇👇
This extension currently supports the following websites:
• adelaidenow.com.au
• baltimoresun.com
• barrons.com
• chicagobusiness.com
• chicagotribune.com
Being of the Hard Way Jones persuasion I have arrived at the solution via the windmills of my mind and the circumlocution and circumnavigation of the pyramids of power. No, I dunno what all that means either.
“The Advertiser” site
is
adelaidenow.com.au
Covered by Anti-Paywall
and not by
Bypass Paywalls
Therefor I am now up to (in the pardon me tally)
One Thousand and ninety Eleven.
See previous post for installation.
I see a post about Nazi flags. I expect that will be because the Antarctic ice is melting; H****er will be revived from cryogenic storage and ready to make a come back in the Light Heavy division.
poroti
The sky has fallen in. FFS this is the worst economic disaster since 1929. The economic, social and emotional death toll is massive already.