The fortnightly Essential Research poll focuses, naturally enough, on coronavirus, with 45% rating the federal government’s response good or very good, and 29% poor or very poor. According to The Guardian’s report, it would seem the latter tend to be those most worried about the virus, as measured by a question on whether respondents felt the situation was being overblown, with which “one third” agreed while 28% thought the opposite.
Over the course of three fortnightly polls, the proportion rating themselves very concerned has escalated from 25% to 27% to 39%, while the results for quite concerned have gone from 43% to 36% and back again. The Guardian’s report does not relate the latest results for “not that concerned” and “not at all concerned”, which were actually up in the last poll, from 26% to 28% and 6% to 9% respectively. Further questions relate to trust in various sources of information, notably the government and the media, but we will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today to get a clear handle on them. Suffice to say that Essential still has nothing to tell us on voting intention.
In other findings, 49% said they wanted the opposition to fall in behind the government’s decisions while 33% preferred that it review and challenge them, and 42% now consider themselves likely to catch the virus, up from 31% on a fortnight ago. Seventy-two per cent reported washing their hands more often, 60% said they were avoiding social gatherings, and 33% reported stocking up on groceries.
We also have a Roy Morgan SMS survey of 723 respondents, which was both conducted and published yesterday, showing 79% support for the government’s decision to allow those in financial difficulty to access $20,000 of their superannuation. As noted in the previous post, an earlier such poll of 974 respondents from Wednesday and Thursday recorded levels of trust in various Australian politicians (plus Jacinda Ardern, who fared best of all); a further set of results from the same poll finds Dick Smith, Mike Cannon-Brookes, Andrew Forrest and Alan Joyce rating best out of designated list of business leaders, with Rupert Murdoch, Clive Palmer, Gina Rinehart and Gerry Harvey performed worst. We are yet to receive hard numbers from either set of questions, but they are apparently forthcoming.
UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here.
Our defamation laws have a lot to answer for.
The polling on Trump’s popularity rating (mentioned by others above) is described in this article.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/25/politics/donald-trump-gallup-approval-polling/index.html
Trump and BB. Closer than you might think.
If were ever on the Italian trajectory, we are miles off it now.
BB
“While you’re all sitting here smugly condemning everyone, particularly Trump and Morrison, Trump has just scored his highest approval figures EVER.”
Trump’s purple patch might not have legs.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-reelection-may-hinge-on-the-economy-and-coronavirus/
President Trump’s approval rating has improved slightly amid the coronavirus pandemic. But the short-term gains, reflecting a possible rally-around-the-flag effect at the time of national emergency, may not hold. On the contrary, the strong likelihood of a potentially very deep recession triggered by coronavirus puts Trump’s reelection chances in jeopardy. …
After 9/11 GWBush went from 52% approval to 88%.
SimonKatich
“After 9/11 GWBush went from 52% approval to 88%.”
Indeed. Nate Silver puts Trump’s spike in popularity in context:
However, compared with typical rally-around-the-flag effects that follow national crises, these gains are fairly meager. For instance, Bush’s approval rating improved from 51 percent to 86 percent following the September 11 attacks, and Carter’s approval rating nearly doubled in 1979 in the immediate wake of the Iran hostage crisis. (Granted, both of their ratings declined sharply from there.) But Trump is also not seeing nearly as much of an approval rating bounce as other leaders in Western countries, such as Italy’s Giuseppe Conte, France’s Emmanuel Macron, and the UK’s Boris Johnson. So it’s not clear that a small approval rating gain is a bullish sign for Trump.
What interests me with Trump is the stupidity of his base.
Whilst it might be true that they’d still support him if he shot someone on 5th avenue, his current level of insanity must be enough to rattle some of these idiots.
Is stupidity a virus? Trump is the superspreader.
Two things are infinite. Trump’s stupidity and the stupidity of his base.
I wouldn’t read too much into a short term bounce. The real test is if lock downs drag on for months into the American summer.
When you are faced with a crisis like we have now you have to trust to some extent those making the big decisions get more right than wrong. What else can we do? Not a lot of point doing anything else.
That likely explains why leaders inferred popularity goes up.
Can two things be infinite?
DM answered a query of mine earlier about if there were any community testing (sampling) for how widespread the virus already is in the community. DM stated that SA had a much higher number of tests done despite similar criterea.
I am aware that SA had far less a problem on availability of the reagent than other states. I am also aware that ill people with no contact with OS were being tested if they were sick enough and pushed hard enough. They were just warned that they would have to wait a little longer AND would have to isolate while they waited.
Probably still doesnt account for the far larger numbers of tests. Perhaps a time lag? Because if the government had a good sample of testing in the general community they would know how widespread it is and would say so. Up until a few days ago they were holding to the line there were no cases that had tested positive in the general community.
Maybe, just maybe, SA have this under control.
Davidwh
What else can we do? Contact journalists and tell them to ask the right questions.
Like two mirrors facing each other.
Simon
Being able to get tested simply because you’re sick (and can’t prove known contact) would account for a LOT of tests.
Trump’s response to Pandemic at every presser since Jan. Basically saying the same thing over and over again. With total cases shown on each occasion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yr6lnPVc4tg
infinity mirrors… cant help mylsef…
https://youtu.be/hY8FEpLdfYI?t=70
Boerwar @ #2214 Thursday, March 26th, 2020 – 1:18 pm
They can be infinite and differently sized.
All whole numbers – infinite
All possible numbers between 0 and 1 – infinitely infinite
[Mathias Cormann has called a press conference for 3pm, at parliament house]
I have not been following that closely, but is he still talking about headwinds?
Cud what the right question is probably differs markedly for different people depending on lots of reasons and views.
Personally I think the safest place for me and my wife is camping in some free camp site a long way from major population centers. But we can’t and I accept there are very good reasons why Anastasia has shut down national parks.
The Victorian CMO is giving a press conference. He sounds quite competent.
Popularity polling (were it undertaken) would probably indicate a bounce for each Premier and Chief Minister regardless of political party at this time.
The number of deaths in Germany is over 200 and is doubling every 2.5-3 days. Sure it ain’t Italy, but I’m not quite so sure it’s where we want to be in a few weeks.
I have heard from a couple of people – you had to be quite sick over a some days. The symptoms had to be very close. You had to push for it. And the threat of a long wait and full isolation put off one.
Yet another senior medico (former head of trauma at Adelaide RAH) says Scovid19 strategy is wrong and we should go harder on a lock-down now.
https://indaily.com.au/news/local/2020/03/26/weve-got-it-wrong-we-need-to-shut-everything-down-ex-rah-trauma-chief/
Most of the critics are senior practicing medicos. So all the right wing-nut politicians and business shills obviously know more about medicine.
1 person in Federation Square in Melb. Go home tosser.
https://fedsquare.com/fed-cam
So SA schools are shutting a week before scheduled term break (shut starts 6th April). This is so teachers can prepare home learning tools.
This could be for those keeping their kids at home. Or it could be for a general shut down (or a partial one that still allows children of essential workers that cant keep kids home).
PM talks a lot but states and parents are ignoring him. People may still support and vote for Morrison, but his babbling word storms are almost universally understood to be hollow.
nath, I thought you would be…. thinner.
Stand up and wave.
Socrates @ #2227 Thursday, March 26th, 2020 – 1:28 pm
Your last sentence is just stating the bleeding obvious. That’s why the PM’s latest committee of indecision is full of them.
This twitter post this morning contains a short video showing arriving passengers at Sydney airport crowded together. Why were Dutton’s people not making passengers observe social distancing? Border Security you FAIL.
https://twitter.com/sally_prosser/status/1242939653956620289
Re Trump and Scomo
Winston Churchill provided the most admirable public leadership (military leadership far less so) during the Second World War. He lost the general election held in mid 1945 by a landslide. For too many people the world had changed irrevocably from before the war and the old certainties were gone.
Depending on what happens in the next 12 months, anything is possible, and personal popularity of the leader in a fundamental societal crisis may well be a poor indicator of what people will expect from the future.
Coronavirus cases are rising faster in states that voted for Trump: Nate Silver
The novel coronavirus, not being sentient and knowing nothing about human ways, has no political affiliation and doesn’t discriminate between Democrats and Republicans as it spreads across the country.
However, according to statistical expert Nate Silver, the data so far indicate that the virus is spreading more readily in states that voted for President Donald Trump.
Here’s another interesting comparison. Yesterday, detected cases increased by 31% in Trump states as compared to 21% in Clinton states. https://t.co/IwPxTfnoeB
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 26, 2020
While there is no definitive reason this is happening, one possible factor could be in the difference between Democratic and Republican governors’ political responses.
Plenty of Republican governors, like Mike DeWine (R-OH) and Larry Hogan (R-MD) have acted promptly and taken the necessary measures to restrict public gatherings and business as the virus has spread. However, a number of others haven’t been as quick. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) has dragged his feet on shutting down public beaches, and is declining to issue a statewide shelter-in-place order. Meanwhile, Gov. Tate Reeves (R-MS) has gone so far as to ban city governments from enacting their own curfews and business restrictions.
Trump himself has repeatedly tried to downplay the severity of the situation, suggesting multiple times the virus would go away soon, and more recently urging states to lift their restrictions and let normal business activity resume despite medical advice.
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/coronavirus-cases-are-rising-faster-in-states-that-voted-for-trump-nate-silver/
Here’s what it would look like if people started meeting in public again by Easter
President Donald Trump has announced that he will demand the whole country reopen for Easter Sunday, despite what doctors and epidemiologists have said.
The New York Times joined with experts to craft a chart of how many people will contract the virus with and without social distancing. If people remain in lockdown and everyone behaves responsibly only 14 million Americans will contract the virus and the “curve” will flatten.
If the Trump Easter plan is implemented, they’re estimating 128 million Americans will contract the virus.
( interactive tool – https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html )
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/heres-what-it-would-look-like-if-people-started-meeting-in-public-again-by-easter/
On the face of it I find that intriguing..
I’d have thought that the big cities like NYC were more Democrat?
TPOF
“Winston Churchill provided the most admirable public leadership (military leadership far less so) during the Second World War. He lost the general election held in mid 1945 by a landslide”
Churchill lost again in 1950, though the Tories picked up a huge number of seats at Labour’s expense (who hung on with a slim majority). In the 1951 election, the Tories also got fewer votes than Attlee’s Labour, and both the Tories and Labour had swings in their favour (both at the expense of the UK Liberals). But Churchill’s Tories ended up with more seats than Labour.
CudChewer
“I’d have thought that the big cities like NYC were more Democrat?”
They are – especially NYC. By and large, NYC is a Democrat bastion.
Cud Chewer,
I took the liberty of copying your question –
” What is Australia doing to obtain sufficient rapid testing kits? This is how we get from lockdown back to a functioning society. Millions of tests.
Are there any journos out there following this up”
and tweeting it to various journalists and politicians I follow on Twitter.
My first attempt so not sure how effective.
CC
NYC is mostly Democrats but the Republicans do better in Stratten Island and the Hampton’s end of Long Island.
Kyle GriffinVerified account @kylegriffin1
NEW YORK (AP) — Johns Hopkins University tally shows US death toll from coronavirus surpasses 1,000.
https://twitter.com/briantylercohen/status/1242974655293435907
An ad using Trumps own words..
CC
This link shows the US Congressional map with New York at the top of the page.
Blue = Democrats Red = Republicans
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/u/usa/congress/housemapsindex2018.shtml
“phoenixRED says:
Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 2:50 pm
Coronavirus cases are rising faster in states that voted for Trump: Nate Silver”
The virus knows who will provide the greatest means for it to keep spreading.
TPOF, Kakuru
Apart from WWII, look at the GFC aftermath. Outside Australia a slew of OECD governments lost power within 18 months, including G W Bush, Brown, Sarkozy, and many others. The Iceland ones were nearly jailed.
Once people realise how much Scomo has blown on a sugar hit that is mainly going to big business, he will not be a popular man, even amongst the most selfish of Torries. And then there is the crash in share value…
Trump for all his faults has tied a few strings to the $2 trillion dollar stimulus that Morrison wouldn’t dare too like placing limits on buy backs to any business receiving a loan or not being allowed to pay a dividend until the loan is repaid.
More profoundly unhelpful comments from an important health figure.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/this-is-war-professor-says-immediate-lockdown-will-stop-the-spread-of-virus-20200326-p54e6d.html
‘Professor Crabb said it was not clear the public was listening to health warnings and messaging about social distancing, and that “a lockdown type mentality sends an unambiguous message that just cannot be misconstrued…And if it turns out that that was an over-reaction, then not much harm done……The main point is pulling every lever you reasonably have, now.”‘
So, this guy – no doubt with a permanent, high-paid job – reckons that many more tens of thousands of people should lose theirs right now to “send a message”. And it’s all ok, because “not much harm done.”
This is typical of how doctors tend to think in a crisis situation: they wish to stop all other potentially risky activities going on around them that might take their focus away from addressing the immediate medical problem. This is arguably a good approach at the micro level, but doing it at a national level is another thing altogether.
It’s not evidence-based. There seems to be a lot of experts – real and so-called – who are suggesting that, if we shut everything down for a few weeks, it will all go away. Countries like NZ, the UK and India are now acting on the basis of this theory, but this idea is completely unproven. Telling the public that, if we all stay locked up for a few weeks, we’ll then be able to start going back to normal, is possibly holding out a false hope.
I still support the government’s approach for now. The infection numbers are not increasing exponentially, and community transmission appears to remain mostly concentrated in a few clusters.
If this changes, then it’s time to go the full monty. But we can hold off for at least a few more days.
Wowsers.
Just listened to Corman speak. He was terrible.
Mexicanbeemer
‘Amazeballs’ that the US has done that. Must be a catch somewhere 🙂