Essential Research leadership ratings

Essential’s latest leadership ratings find Scott Morrison continuing to struggle, despite being back to level pegging on preferred prime minister.

The Guardian reports on yet another fortnightly Essential Research poll with no voting intention numbers, but we does at least get the monthly leadership ratings. These show Scott Morrison down a point on approval to 39% and steady on disapproval at 52%, after the previous poll respectively had him down five and up nine. Anthony Albanese is respectively down two to 41% and up one to 31%, and he has lost his 39-36 lead as preferred prime minister, with the two now tied on 36%. The BludgerTrack trends on the sidebar have now been updated with these results.

Further questions on bushfire recovery, sports rorts and coronavirus don’t seem to have turned up anything too mindblowing, but the publication of the full report may turn up something hopefully later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The most interesting of the supplementary findings for mine relate to the budget surplus, the consistent theme of which is that respondents aren’t that fussed about it: 79% agree spending on bushfire recovery is more important than maintaining it, with 11% disagreeing; 65% say it would be understandable if the coronavirus impact meant it wasn’t achieved, with 18% disagreeing; and 57% agree it was wrong for the government to discuss the surplus in the present tense before the election, with 24% disagreeing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,911 comments on “Essential Research leadership ratings”

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  1. Boerwar

    Making money out of art. You really hope to draw an inside straight if that is your career of choice. Definitely for love not money taking that path. Dreams of wealth maybe but “lotto” odds in reality. Knew a “Looby” a long long time ago, thought it was a nickname but after reading that article I would appear to have been very wRONg about that.

  2. Interesting way of nailing a racist:

    Peg

    It is funny, but a person may be called a misogynist, and the misogynist accept that to a degree, a paedophile generally accepts that description, a murderer ditto, but NEVER call a racist a racist. Why is this so?

    So if some sanctimonious dickhead calls you a racist and you deny it, that proves you ARE one.

    Gee, how convenient.

    So what happens if you admit it? Does that mean you aren’t a racist?

    Or doesn’t it matter whether you deny it or not, as long as one of the luvvies simply makes the accusation?

    Damned if you do. Damned if you don’t.

    Fair dinkum, we are dealing with morons from the virtue signalling Greens wankers.

  3. Bushfire Bill @ #1455 Thursday, February 13th, 2020 – 8:42 pm

    Interesting way of mailing a racist:

    Peg

    It is funny, but a person may be called a misogynist, and the misogynist accept that to a degree, a paedophile generally accepts that description, a murderer ditto, but NEVER call a racist a racist. Why is this so?

    So if some sanctimonious dickhead calls you a racist and you deny it, that proves you ARE one.

    Gee, how convenient.

    so what happens if you admit it? Does that mean you aren’t a racist?

    Or doesn’t it matter whether you deny it or not, as long as one of the luvvies simply makes the accusation?

    Fair dinkum, we are dealing with morons from the virtue signalling Greens wankers.

    BB

    Time to get off the piss.

  4. Bushfire Bill @ #1455 Thursday, February 13th, 2020 – 9:42 pm

    Interesting way of mailing a racist:

    Peg

    It is funny, but a person may be called a misogynist, and the misogynist accept that to a degree, a paedophile generally accepts that description, a murderer ditto, but NEVER call a racist a racist. Why is this so?

    So if some sanctimonious dickhead calls you a racist and you deny it, that proves you ARE one.

    Gee, how convenient.

    so what happens if you admit it? Does that mean you aren’t a racist?

    Or doesn’t it matter whether you deny it or not, as long as one of the luvvies simply makes the accusation?

    Fair dinkum, we are dealing with morons from the virtue signalling Greens wankers.

    BB,

    You are not a racist. I will stand with you on this smear against your character.

  5. The Age
    A $180 million rail yard being built in Melbourne’s west to make way for the West Gate Tunnel could now become a dumping ground for the road’s toxic soil, just as it was set to open.
    The site in Wyndham Vale, in the seat of Victorian Treasurer Tim Pallas, is just 70 metres from houses and abuts the sites of planned housing developments and four schools.
    Mr Pallas, the member for Werribee who signed off on the Transurban toll road, faces a bruising fight with his constituents, who have vowed to go to war over the proposal.
    They say the Werribee area continually bears the brunt of the government’s unpopular decisions because it is a safe Labor seat.
    ______________________________________________________

    Christ they are fucking hopeless. They don’t remember Fiskville at all.
    I wonder if Pallas lives in his electorate, probably in Toorak or Brighton if the rest of his govt is any guide.

  6. Greensborough Growler @ #1451 Thursday, February 13th, 2020 – 9:18 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1450 Thursday, February 13th, 2020 – 9:15 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1449 Thursday, February 13th, 2020 – 8:49 pm

    cat,

    McCormack is collateral. Morrison is the target!

    I keep wondering whether, if Morrison capitulates to Joyce, whether the electorate will forgive him at the next election?

    Morrison is not going to accept Joyce as DPM.

    Join the dots.

    Morrison has no choice. The Leader of The Nationals becomes DPM. If Joyce gets the numbers, he’s back in.

  7. It’s Time @ #1456 Thursday, February 13th, 2020 – 9:44 pm

    Bushfire Bill @ #1455 Thursday, February 13th, 2020 – 8:42 pm

    Interesting way of mailing a racist:

    Peg

    It is funny, but a person may be called a misogynist, and the misogynist accept that to a degree, a paedophile generally accepts that description, a murderer ditto, but NEVER call a racist a racist. Why is this so?

    So if some sanctimonious dickhead calls you a racist and you deny it, that proves you ARE one.

    Gee, how convenient.

    so what happens if you admit it? Does that mean you aren’t a racist?

    Or doesn’t it matter whether you deny it or not, as long as one of the luvvies simply makes the accusation?

    Fair dinkum, we are dealing with morons from the virtue signalling Greens wankers.

    BB

    Time to get off the piss.

    You first!

  8. GG,

    Apparently I’m pissed. That explains everything.

    I haven’t had even a glass of wine since the weekend, but the luvvies know better.

    Last resort of the scoundrel is to call your opponent a racist.

    Second last is to accuse them if being intoxicated.

    If all else fails tell them they’re a coal hugger.

  9. C@tmomma @ #1460 Thursday, February 13th, 2020 – 9:49 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1451 Thursday, February 13th, 2020 – 9:18 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1450 Thursday, February 13th, 2020 – 9:15 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1449 Thursday, February 13th, 2020 – 8:49 pm

    cat,

    McCormack is collateral. Morrison is the target!

    I keep wondering whether, if Morrison capitulates to Joyce, whether the electorate will forgive him at the next election?

    Morrison is not going to accept Joyce as DPM.

    Join the dots.

    Morrison has no choice. The Leader of The Nationals becomes DPM. If Joyce gets the numbers, he’s back in.

    Morrison is a “Walk away Renee” type.

    Dutton will be the one.

    I’m so excited about being governed by a QLD cp.

  10. Horsey wrote:

    . The quote included by BB was not made by me. A deliberate misrepresentation?

    I didn’t mention you, idiot.

    The only thoughts you’re part of are your own.

  11. rhwombat

    Yes but does a mask actually physically stop respired droplets from other people entering your lungs as you breath in? Or not? Or its only partially effective? Because?

  12. Reading that stuff about Morrison/Joyce.

    Does this mean that Morrison could/has put pressure on Nationals MPs to not back Joyce? What form of pressure would that be?

  13. If BB and GG are not racists – I guess they’re convinced of this because they have friends of other races – what is this hatred that drives them crazy? Those they call “sanctimonious” for overtly decrying racism? If so, the result for the minority du jour is much the same.

  14. Ireland: Political earthquake as Sinn Féin wins election

    https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/ireland-political-earthquake-sinn-f%C3%A9in-wins-election

    “The election result comes as a blow to both Ireland’s major right-wing parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, who between them have dominated politics in the Irish state for a century.

    It is the first time in the history of the republic that neither party has won the popular vote, and their combined vote share has been reduced to a mere 43%. Both parties lost vote share and seats, and some constituencies failed to return a TD from either party for the first time ever.
    :::
    Both parties also united to attack Sinn Féin, joining the mainstream media chorus that it was not a “normal party”, scaremongering about “shadowy figures” controlling it and its historical links to the long-finished armed struggle in the six counties still under British occupation.
    :::
    The 2008 economic collapse, bank bail-outs and vicious austerity measures left deep wounds in Irish society, and while the economy has officially recovered, ordinary people have not seen the benefits.
    :::
    With barely 5 million people, Ireland has more than 10,000 homeless each week, and more than a third of those in emergency accommodation are children.

    In 2018, 50% of adults aged under 30 were living at home with their parents due to skyrocketing rents, and there are more than 200,000 children living in poverty.

    After a decade of austerity, it is little surprise that resentment continued to grow against the two pro-business parties, who have run the state between them since independence.

    Sinn Féin, on the other hand, campaigned on the theme “time for change”, and with its robust left-social democratic manifesto, “Giving workers and families a break”.”

  15. Reactionaries are as predictable as the seasons. When Pell failed to convince the Victorian Court of Appeal of his innocence, Bolt, among many, took the view that the majority’s (Ferguson, CJ & Maxwell, P) argument was far less compelling than the minority’s (Weinberg, reserve JA) on the spurious ground that as a former Commonwealth DPP, Weinbberg’s knowledge of criminal law should’ve prevailed.

    That’s not to suggest that when Pell’s application is heard by the High Court on March 11, his (Maxwell’s) reasons for judgment won’t prevail; but the point is that Bolt is not legally trained and it’s obvious that he’s still smarting for having been found to have contravened s.18C of the Racial Discrimination Act. In short, he should’ve shut his big mouth until the matter is finally determined.

    This brings me to his article today in the Murdoch tabloids, where Bolt denigrates the majority in Love & Thoms -v- the Commonwealth, lauding the minority, which included Kiefel, CJ, seemingly unaware that she’s merely the first among equals, placing little emphasis on the fact that the Court remitted to the Federal Court the question of whether Love has been accepted as a member of the Kamilaroi tribe, where there appears to be prima facie doubt. Moreover, he outrageously claims that the decision ‘…marches us towards a form of apartheid without even a vote the people’, a ridiculous claim even by his low and ignorant standards, failing, among other things, to understand that the third arm of government is not subject to the whims of public opinion as is the Legislative arm via elections.

    Dutton’s so pissed off that he’s sought Porter’s advice in an attempt to circumvent the decision of the High Court by enacting legislation that he hopes will restore his hitherto right to deport those who’ve been sentenced to twelve months or more and who identify as First Australians. Good luck with that one.
    The fact is, Dutton and his motley mob of reactionaries have been dealt a well-deserved blow.

    As for the decision itself, there is an argument that some will identify as having Aboriginal descent in order to escape the relevant provisions of the Migration Act. However, there are established criteria that must be satisfied to make such a claim:

    1. Being of Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander descent;

    2. Identifying as an Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander person, and

    3. Being accepted as such by the community in which you live, or formerly lived.

    These are the criteria that the Federal Court will need to be satisfied with respect to Love.

  16. Try telling the tens of thousands already infected by inhaling COVID-19, or the millions wearing masks to protect themselves (with a new mask recommended hourly), or the doctors and nurses walking around in biohazard suits that the virus isn’t airborne.

    Dr Wombat splits hairs on the difference between droplets and aerosols and you think this will protect you if this disease goes pandemic? Like it protected the tens of thousands (and many more to come) who’ve already caught the bug?

    Anyone who believes that semantics can trump coronavirus is even more deluded than the wackier anti-vaxxers.

    The clear instructions from the CDC are to beware of and protect yourself from inhaling the virus.


  17. Taylormade says:
    Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 9:48 pm

    The Age
    A $180 million rail yard being built in Melbourne’s west to make way for the West Gate Tunnel could now become a dumping ground for the road’s toxic soil, just as it was set to open.
    The site in Wyndham Vale, in the seat of Victorian Treasurer Tim Pallas, is just 70 metres from houses and abuts the sites of planned housing developments and four schools.
    Mr Pallas, the member for Werribee who signed off on the Transurban toll road, faces a bruising fight with his constituents, who have vowed to go to war over the proposal.
    They say the Werribee area continually bears the brunt of the government’s unpopular decisions because it is a safe Labor seat.
    ______________________________________________________

    Christ they are fucking hopeless. They don’t remember Fiskville at all.
    I wonder if Pallas lives in his electorate, probably in Toorak or Brighton if the rest of his govt is any guide.

    Ok. What is the solution?

  18. Pegasus

    Ireland: Political earthquake as Sinn Féin

    Repeatedly I see comments that it was their offer to shake up “business as usual” that got the voters in. Sounds a pretty familiar story. For want of a better word “lefty” parties have instead of getting with the zeitgeist have been saying the way to go is being more “business as usual” . Gee I wonder why they have met with such merde 🙁

  19. frednk
    says:
    Ok. What is the solution?
    __________________
    I assumed Labor would follow the traditional Victorian pattern. When the coalition are in government all the nasties get put in western suburbs and when Labor are in they get sent to the conservative hinterland. Werribee already has a shit farm, now Labor has tried to put a prison and now toxic soil there. I don’t know anyone from that area but it seems the locals have had enough.

  20. We played this in our recorder ensemble this morning. Absolutely wonderful. Beauty like this takes one’s mind off the general awfulness. The key signature changes almost every bar. I played the soprano part. Aah!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qTamCjvabjg

    This evening I took part in a ‘Stable Research’ focus group of ‘senior citizens’ discussing ‘the environment’ and testing out a bunch of three and four word slogans. Paid for by the Federal Coalition, I am fairly sure. The general level of straight out ignorance and misapprehension around the table was both unsurprising and depressing.

  21. Looks like the Coalition are also splashing out on research online. I took part in a survey tonight about travel to bushfire destinations and my opinion about what caused the bushfires.

  22. Timely:

    I’m open to other suggests which would explain the poor environment tonight.

    You seem to have trouble accepting that people who disagree with you are not drunk.

    Others here can’t conceive of the possibility that a person who wishes to avoid Chinese restaurants and other gathering points is anything other than a racist. They just can’t believe it, despite most of the patrons avoiding Chinese restaurants are themselves Chinese.

    Yet others state that to deny you are a racist us proof you are one. Presumably to admit it is proof too. So, logically, once the allegation is made you are guilty as charged.

    And It’s Time wonders out loud why there’s a “poor environment” tonight?

    Sheesh!

    The world’s gone bonkers.

  23. Wow, ‘vertical cities’, I guess that’s one word for them:

    BEIJING — Chinese researchers are increasingly finding the coronavirus in human stool — but say that it’s still too early to declare a high risk of the pathogen transmitting through fecal matter or bathroom plumbing like its related cousin, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus.

    …The prospect of the virus replicating in the digestive tract and spreading through fecal matter is particularly worrisome for Asia’s vertical cities. Panic erupted in Hong Kong 17 years ago after cases emerged of SARS moving through plumbing inside apartment towers.

    Hong Kong officials this week evacuated an apartment block after residents living directly on top of each other on different floors became infected, leading local officials to worry that the virus may have wafted out of vertical sewage pipes or were carried onto different floors in liquid droplets.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coronavirus-china-live-updates/2020/02/13/fce6e116-4dea-11ea-b721-9f4cdc90bc1c_story.html#link-YK4B7QP4JE565EZ46NFDNEOV6A

  24. Werribee is actually a nice place. However it will always be associated in the Melbourne imagination with the ‘Werribee shit farm’. The locals are touchy about that and clearly worried about the long term effects on their real estate prices should any more negativity develop. Looking at the last state election results there is clearly some sentiment for a revolt.

  25. Cc
    The mask might stop you inhaling droplets directly if a coronavirus patient coughed directly into your mouth but that’s not how it’s normally caught. You would breath in around the edges of your mask anyway and those masks only filter droplets for a short amount of time. Also you would take off the mask and infect your hands.

  26. Looks like the Coalition are also splashing out on research online. I took part in a survey tonight about travel to bushfire destinations and my opinion about what caused the bushfires.

    Did you tell them its all those exploding koalas?

    If you look at maps of the fires, those maps correlate perfectly wit koalas. You know its true 🙂

  27. I have met BB a couple of times, had lunches with him etc. He is a nice bloke and certainly no racist.
    I don’t always agree with his opinions, but that won’t bother him at all.

  28. Tim Pallas nearly lost his safe Labor seat at the last Vic State Election, reputably because of community opposition to a proposed new youth justice facility in the electorate. Cant see this dump happening….

  29. Prisons aren’t necessarily bad news. When Beechworth’s historic prison closed, the locals fought like crazy to ensure that it was replaced with a new one.

    A friend of mine once suggested that the best way to deal with locating ‘nasties’ was to open them to tender….you’d then get local communities fighting to have them!

  30. nath

    In the state electorate of Werribee, Tim Pallas, won in 2018 after preferences were distributed. In 2014 he won on first preferences (56.61%). In the former election a strong local candidate, GP Joe Garra, who ran as an independent garnered 19.9 firstpreferences and another independent5.4%.
    ——–

    Residents declare war on Labor over toxic soil dump plan

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/residents-declare-war-on-labor-over-toxic-soil-dump-plan-20200213-p540hd.html

    “Mr Pallas, the member for Werribee who signed off on the Transurban toll road, faces a bruising fight with his constituents, who have vowed to go to war over the proposal.

    They say the Werribee area continually bears the brunt of the government’s unpopular decisions because it is a safe Labor seat.

    Three years ago a major local revolt forced Labor to stop plans to build a youth detention facility in Werribee.
    ::::
    Community organiser Lisa Heinrichs said those in the west had had enough of the government riding roughshod over the safe Labor seat.”

  31. zoomster
    says:
    Thursday, February 13, 2020 at 10:54 pm
    Prisons aren’t necessarily bad news. When Beechworth’s historic prison closed, the locals fought like crazy to ensure that it was replaced with a new one.
    ____________________
    they needed the jobs. Werribee less so.

  32. Werribee was my grandfather’s last parish. I went to school there for a short period when my mother was seriously ill, so I have a few memories of the place.

    I haven’t been that way for a decade or so, but last time we drove through I found myself remembering a lot of the landmarks.

  33. Cud Chewer @ #1491 Thursday, February 13th, 2020 – 10:50 pm

    Looks like the Coalition are also splashing out on research online. I took part in a survey tonight about travel to bushfire destinations and my opinion about what caused the bushfires.

    Did you tell them its all those exploding koalas?

    If you look at maps of the fires, those maps correlate perfectly wit koalas. You know its true 🙂

    So, Drop Bears are the Arsonists!?! 😆

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