Empty chairs

Victoria’s Greens gear up for a party vote to fill Richard Di Natale’s Senate vacancy, plus similar developments for the state Liberals in Tasmania and Victoria.

As you can see in the post below this one, the Courier-Mail yesterday had a YouGov Galaxy state poll for Queensland that found both major parties stranded in the mid-thirties on the primary vote. State results from this series are usually followed a day or two later by federal ones, but no sign of that to this point. If it’s Queensland state politics reading you’re after, I can offer my guide to the Currumbin by-election, to be held on March 29. Other than that, there’s the following news on how various parliamentary vacancies around the place will be or might be filled:

Noel Towell of The Age reports two former state MPs who fell victim to the Greens’ weak showing at the November 2018 state election are “potentially strong contenders” to take Richard Di Natale’s Senate seat when he leaves parliament, which will be determined by a vote of party members. These are Lidia Thorpe, who won the Northcote by-election from Labor in June 2018, and Huong Truong, who filled Colleen Hartland’s vacancy in the Western Metropolitan upper house seat in February 2018. The party’s four current state MPs have all ruled themselves out. Others said to be potential starters include Brian Walters, a barrister and former Liberty Victoria president, and Dinesh Mathew, a television actor who ran in the state seat of Caulfield in 2018.

• Former Tasmanian Premier Will Hodgman’s seat in parliament will be filled by Nic Street, following a preference countback of the votes Hodgman received in the seat of Franklin at the March 2018 election. This essentially amounted to a race between Street and the other Liberal who nominated for the recount, Simon Duffy. Given Street was only very narrowly unsuccessful when he ran as an incumbent at the election, being squeezed out for the last of the five seats by the Greens, it was little surprise that he easily won the countback with 8219 out of 11,863 (70.5%). This is the second time Street has made it to parliament on a countback, the first being in February 2016 on the retirement of Paul Harriss.

The Age reports Mary Wooldridge’s vacancy in the Victorian Legislative Council is likely to be filled either by Emanuele Cicchiello, former Knox mayor and deputy principal at Lighthouse Christian College, or Asher Judah, who ran unsuccessfully in Bentleigh in 2018. Party sources are quoted expressing surprise that only four people have nominated, with the only woman being Maroondah councillor Nora Lamont, reportedly a long shot. Also in the field is Maxwell Gratton, chief executive of the Melbourne Queer Film Festival.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,209 comments on “Empty chairs”

Comments Page 16 of 25
1 15 16 17 25
  1. ‘Socrates says:
    Monday, February 10, 2020 at 10:29 am

    Boerwar
    “Steggall is barking up the wrong tree.”

    Good to see the perfect is not the enemy of the good on this occaision. What do you think is the solution? I assume Labor has their own private member’s bill under preparation that will be offered for a conscience vote, which will propose a robust mechanism to impose targets that cannot be watered down by a desperate Morrison or Palszczuk?’

    There are several false premises here – all of them being ignored by peeps who have a political interest in ignoring them.

    It should not come as a surprise to Australians when an Indie or two here or there, or the Greens having a BOP in the Senate makes no significant sustained difference. It never has.

    Anyone can set any targets but implementation money is decided by the majority in the House. The Government of the Day simply refuses to approve the funding. The Senate can block money bills, but it cannot initiate money bills.

    REAL, SIGNIFICANT, SUSTAINED CLIMATE IN/ACTION DEPENDS ON HAVING A MAJORITY IN THE HOUSE FOR THREE OR FOUR GOVERNMENTS IN A ROW.

    As the Coalition repeatedly demonstrates.

  2. Warragamba up 21% and counting, heaviest rain in 30 years

    Wow. Now if Mangrove Ck dam fills (from its own catchment – no cheating), that will be something.

  3. ‘Socrates says:
    Monday, February 10, 2020 at 10:47 am

    D&M

    “It is not unreasonable to ask to see the bill before deciding how to respond.”

    I agree. All the more reason to be curious how Boerwar knows its author is barking up the wrong tree already. Prescient of him.’

    The difficulty here is that a minority is trying to force a majority in parliament to do their bidding by way of setting up an ‘independent’ commission that will ‘force’ the government of the day do what the commission wants the government to do.

    Spot the problems with that notion!

    Commissions work when governments back them in principle and with money. Otherwise they are nobbled by appointments, by lack of funding or, quite simply by ignoring them.

    What is the commission going to do? Put MPs in jail?

    Do get real.

  4. Good Morning

    I don’t think Labor should do a conscience vote.

    I think that is letting the LNP off the hook. More scared politics from a party that does not know how to win.

    I understand the reason some are talking about it but it comes down to a basic.

    You don’t allow conscience votes on scientific fact.

    This is not a bill about abortion or same sex marriage.
    Its a bill about the response to the existential crisis that scientists tell us threatens our race.

    The whole we must be bipartisan and look at at a conscience bill idea is part of the reason why Labor loses elections when it promotes climate policy. Just looking for ways to be weak not act on the environment.

    Of course we want the LNP to act on the science not the denials belief. The LNP is on the ropes. Now is not the time for Labor to throw in the towel, by pretending that acting on the climate crisis comes down to a belief choice not a science choice.

  5. I listened carefully to Steggall being interviewed this morning and I thought of ‘The Castle’.
    Tell her she’s dreamin’.
    She did not demonstrate a clue about how our democracy deploys power.
    It’s the numbers in the House.
    The Senate can block and all the rest of it, but the Senate is reactive.
    Various mad hatters like Hanson and the Greens like to pretend that the Senate can make real, national, significant stuff happen.
    It can’t.
    It can stop it. It can’t make it happen.

  6. Cyclone Uesi currently near New Caledonia will likely track down the east coast of Australia bringing more rain and high winds and tides by the end of the week to Qld and NSW.

  7. BW, if the Coalition allows a conscience vote, and heaps of Libs vote for it and it passes to the resounding cheers of the media and the public in general…. And the government refuse to fund it…what would happen?
    If the Coalition refuse a conscience vote and the bill dies because of that. What would happen?

    I dont see a down side for the ALP (and the Greens) in being gently supportive of this legislation effort – at least to begin with.

    The third option, that the LNP will support and fund and back this bill to the hilt…. well, I dont see that happening.

  8. Boerwar:

    [‘The interesting thing about that footage, and other similar footage, is the degree to which individuals will buck up against the state.’]

    Perhaps the mainland Chinese are getting a bit of courage from what’s been going on in Hong Kong? China’s leaders like to portray the population as compliant but it appears that isn’t entirely the case and how that footage became public is a bit of a mystery. On the other hand, it may’ve been purposely released to show other recalcitrants that the authorities aren’t mucking around. And I think the total
    number of those who’ve contracted the virus in China is far more than around 30,000.

  9. FMD
    The favourite Greens fantasy fetish is doing the rounds again.
    It won’t matter how Labor votes.
    Labor is the Opposition.
    What matters is how the Government votes.
    End of story.
    It is about time the Greens learned that cannibalizing Labor so that the Greens can enjoy the political delights of the BOP is a complete and utter dead as far as climate change policy is concerned.
    It has failed three elections in a row.
    It is not working now.
    There is absolutely nothing to indicate that doing it again in the next election will work any better.

  10. BW

    The minority did tell the majority what to do on the Medevac Bill.

    This comes into the same category.

    Its worth going full bore as it adds pressure on the LNP. Its all up side for climate policy not down. The government failing to act will increase the pressure inside the LNP as they split over climate policy.

    Those city Liberals are very aware of Tony Abbott’s fate.

  11. Player One:

    Winning a battle of wits here on PB is not the aim. It is just a bit hard to avoid

    I congratulate you on your masterful avoidance

  12. Labor doesn’t need a conscience vote -= they should simply support the Steggall legislation as a block.

    Its the right thing to do, and moreover, Steggall and the crossbench are best understood as a major split in the LNP: some of which is yet to occur, and all of which will benefit Labor.

  13. Mavis
    I was stunned to learn a few years ago of the number of civil disobedience events in China.
    They are hard to count but you are looking at well over 100,000 per annum.
    The totalitarian regime is responsive, to an extent. I don’t how many officials have been sacked post nCoV19 but they would now be well over 400.

  14. “The favourite Greens fantasy fetish is doing the rounds again.
    It won’t matter how Labor votes.
    Labor is the Opposition.
    What matters is how the Government votes.
    End of story.”

    This is simply not true with the numbers this close, as we saw with the Medevac bill i the last parliament

    Labor voting for the legislation maximizes the pressure of LNPs MPs who might be persuaded to cross the floor. That pressure will be close to nil if Labor doesnt support it.

  15. guytaur says:
    Monday, February 10, 2020 at 11:31 am

    BW

    The minority did tell the majority what to do on the Medevac Bill.

    Exactly so.

    (1) The Government used its powers to disable the intent of the Act when it was in force.
    (2) The Act has since been reversed by the Government.

    REAL, SIGNIFICANT, SUSTAINED CLIMATE IN/ACTION DEPENDS ON HAVING A MAJORITY IN THE HOUSE FOR THREE OR FOUR GOVERNMENTS IN A ROW.

  16. Mavis @ #760 Monday, February 10th, 2020 – 10:30 am

    And I doubt the total
    number of those who’ve contracted the virus in China is far more than around 30,000.

    Doubt, or don’t doubt?

    Because it seems implausible that with 1.4 billion people the government is going to be able to identify and confirm every single infection? Especially if it tends to produce milder symptoms in some younger/healthier/luckier cases.

  17. Bonza and Victoria, my Chinese friends tell me Melbourne house prices will not crash.

    Reason 1. Compared to places Like HK, you can only buy a car spot for the price of a house in Melbourne. In their eyes Melbourne is good value.
    Reason 2. There are many rich people in China that would like to live outside of China. Australia is seen as a very favourable place to live. Apart from a sizeable Chinese population here already (particularly concentrated in certain areas), we have property rights and rule of law.
    Reason 3. The demand for houses can be manipulated by the immigration rate. This is something the government can turn on or off or adjust to keep the demand high.

    Are they right? They mount a good argument.

  18. Michael

    Just two months ago, the Bureau of Meteorology forecast that the eastern states could expect no significant rain before April. Guess they forgot about Sydney and most of the east coast. And we are suppose to rely on experts about climate change. Who knows what to believe anymore.

    One of the main consequences of climate change is reduced ability to predict weather.This has a major adverse impact on agriculture, particularly in less developed nations.

  19. A reminder of a different view to BW

    @raywilton4 tweets

    “Woman who toppled Tony Abbott at the last election on a platform of climate change action now has the whole parliament in her sights as she seeks bipartisan support for a climate change framework bill aimed at transitioning Aust to a decarbonised economy” https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/10/zali-steggall-to-unveil-climate-change-bill-and-push-for-a-conscience-vote-for-mps?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

  20. lefty e
    Frigging around at the edges, as the Greens have repeatedly demonstrated with their BOPs when they get them, fixes nothing significant for long.
    To do that you need successive majority governments in the House.
    See my response to Guytaur.

  21. I’m amazed how often people tend to forget this government has a very flimsy majority of 2/5ths of F-all. An it just went down to 1/5th with O’Brien’s departure.

    Parliaments are going to matter more in this era of de-alignment.

  22. lefty e @ #769 Monday, February 10th, 2020 – 8:36 am

    “The favourite Greens fantasy fetish is doing the rounds again.
    It won’t matter how Labor votes.
    Labor is the Opposition.
    What matters is how the Government votes.
    End of story.”

    This is simply not true with the numbers this close, as we saw with the Medevac bill i the last parliament

    Labor voting for the legislation maximizes the pressure of LNPs MPs who might be persuaded to cross the floor. That pressure will be close to nil if Labor doesnt support it.

    Medevac legislation was passed with noone crossing the floor and since the election it has ceased to exist.

  23. Warrigal, BW et al. in follow up of the excellent Straits Times article on life inside a Wuhan hospital, quoting Dr Peng Zhiyong.

    Dr Peng is one of the authors of an important paper published in JAMA last Friday (Warning: HTML version of dense technical article) reporting the experience in dense technical detail. The take home points are the nosocomial (inhospital spread – particularly to HCW, like Li Wenliang), the delayed (3 week) mortality and the higher mortality of the admitted population in Wuhan (4.3%). Tom Freiden (ex CDC head) gives a sobering and more accessible take in a CNN article based on his extrapolation of the JAMA article.

  24. Boerwar @ #752 Monday, February 10th, 2020 – 11:17 am

    REAL, SIGNIFICANT, SUSTAINED CLIMATE IN/ACTION DEPENDS ON HAVING A MAJORITY IN THE HOUSE FOR THREE OR FOUR GOVERNMENTS IN A ROW.

    So, you are coming around to my way of thinking? – i.e. that a political solution to climate change has always been unlikely, and is now looking even less so? That doesn’t mean it is not worth pursuing, of course – every possibility is worth pursuing. It just means that we should also be looking elsewhere.

  25. BW

    Real action on climate comes when the LNP is forced to respond to facts. Not its denialist MP”s.

    Facts are overwhelming the LNP. NOW is not the time to let the party off the hook on fact.
    Stop giving excuses for denialism

  26. BW

    Real action on climate comes when the LNP is forced to respond to facts. Not its denialist MP”s.

    Facts are overwhelming the LNP. NOW is not the time to let the party off the hook on fact.
    Stop giving excuses for denialism

  27. g
    ‘having something in your sights’ is exactly what the Greens have had for 30 years. In their case, it is Labor.
    And what has that political target delivered for climate change that is significant, real, sustained and national?
    Nothing.
    Nothing but increased CO2 emissions.
    I suggest you take the Greens New Deal CO2 Emissions Street Fighters Protest Action Pledge. You can use it as the framework for reducing your emissions by 10 tons. If you do that and follow through you will still emit over 5 tons per annum but you will have done more than the Greens Party has achieved in the House in 30 years.

  28. BW

    Yes you keep up the excuses for denialsism. You do it well.

    Facts matter. Fact is that the LNP has infighting today over a coal power station as denialists try and keep control. Now is exactly the right time for Labor to fully back the bill.

    Its also very clear. This is not a moral belief issue. Its evidence based policy. Thus Labor does not do conscience votes.

  29. rhw
    My take home messages from Dr Peng’s paper were that:
    (1) the Chinese doctors and nurses are heroes. The real thing.
    (2) that we are not yet out of the woods with nCoV19.
    (3) that (initially) charging nCoV19 patients for treatment was not a good setting for trying to stop an epidemic.

  30. It seems many people have a different attitude towards debt than I do, I’ve been hoping to avoid a mortgage more than 4-5x annual salary.
    In inner/mid city areas, I’d also need to factor in body corp fees, even if I pushed the budget for a townhouse. That’s why I’ve also considered buying in a cheaper city

  31. RHW

    I also saw the funny side, as well as the dark side, of this:

    ‘Doctors use big words to hide bad things: Nosocomial means caught it in the hospital.’

  32. My take home messages from Dr Peng’s paper were that:
    (1) the Chinese doctors and nurses are heroes. The real thing.

    Yes. Certainly in my personal experience. And in many other cases I have heard. They were very brave in T Square.

  33. In terms of real, on ground, practical, significant and sustained changes, the best that we can hope for out of the Steggall inititive is that the Zimmerman Push is able to use it as a fulcrum for moving the Government towards better climate change initiatives.
    These will almost certainly be at the margins because any truly significant move would cause the Coal Crazies to fracture the Government.
    Morrison’s political emissions wedgie is being pulled tight up against his political family jewels.
    Any political hiccup could cause acute pain.

  34. lizzie says:
    Monday, February 10, 2020 at 9:18 am

    Not Sure

    …”I was referring to the Qld MPs such as Canavan and the lady from the Nats”…

    ……………………

    Well then say so, the broadly anti-Queensland vibe on this blog can be infuriating at times.
    And our record for producing idiot politicians is put in the shade by at least one of the larger states, last three PM’s being a fairly good example.

  35. From Feb 2018. Barnaby has been too busy to read anything, what with the babies and his family infrastructure, so his beliefs haven’t moved an inch.

    https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/no-one-is-buying-the-minerals-councils-coal-slime-20180208-h0vrgc.html

    The Treasurer held up a lump of lacquered coal in Federal Parliament in a testosterone-fuelled frenzy and berated us all: “This is coal. Don’t be afraid, don’t be scared.”

    Morrison later capitulated, admitting that adding new coal power would cost too much and take too long to build.

    Not so the Minerals Council of Australia. Only weeks after BHP Billiton, the council’s largest funder, directed it to pull its head in, the mining industry’s peak body appears emboldened in its hardline coal advocacy.

    The council is again pushing “clean coal”, demanding that someone – it’s not clear who – should invest in “high efficiency, low emissions” coal-power stations with carbon capture and storage.

  36. Boerwar @ #786 Monday, February 10th, 2020 – 11:47 am

    RHW

    I also saw the funny side, as well as the dark side, of this:

    ‘Doctors use big words to hide bad things: Nosocomial means caught it in the hospital.’

    Inside hospitals (Tom Freiden isn’t a hospital doctor) it isn’t funny: we use the term “nosocomial” (and “HCW mortality”, and “open reporting”) to scare bureaucrats into doing something.

  37. Henry Davis, Jr.@iamhenrydavisjr

    As a Councilman in #SouthBend, I know why @PeteButtigieg looked like a deer in headlights last night when talking about systemic racism in the South Bend Police. He tolerated it, he perpetuated it, and last night he lied to millions of Americans about it.
    8:22 am · 9 Feb 2020·

    Josh Jordan@NumbersMuncher
    ·
    1h
    I don’t think people are pricing in the problems Buttigieg is going to have with minorities as we get past these first two states.

    And that’s exactly why you can’t rule Biden out, even as bad as he currently looks.

  38. Bonza
    Your debt tolerance is important which is why you might be better off not going to auctions but your wage isn’t expected to stay the same for 30 years and most people don’t stay in the one property for 30 years. You might need to look beyond your favorite suburbs because sometimes you will find that the next suburb offers similar for less. You might find you are better off renting if you are good at saving money.

  39. Whatever happened to Mr Morrison’s lump of coal?
    Did he eat it?
    Is it in a drawer in his Office in the House?
    Did he use it to stoke the Kirribilli kitchen oven?
    What?
    Where?
    There are questions to answer!

  40. Bonsa, I feel your dilemma, I remember when household debt (on average) was 80% of average salary, it is now 200%.

    People can service this debt because of home loan interest rates are at a historical low.

    What happens when rates return to their long term average of over 7% (or more than double what they are now)? Answer: Carnage!

  41. From Dublin
    Watching a fascinating count on RTE

    Two points:
    Sinn Fein at 25% 1st preference performed outside margin of error on the exit poll. Is this a phenomenon we could call the “Shy Shinner Syndrome” like the “shy Tory” ?

    Fianna Fail’s leader Micheál Martin has already said he will “listen to the voice of the people” i.e A FF/SF coalition is on the cards
    With counting closing for the night:
    Seats: 67/160 decided
    FG 12
    FF 12
    SF 29
    Green 4
    Assorted minor left (significantly helped by SF surpluses) 4
    Ind 6

    Sinn Fein is running out of candidates and will end in the mid 30s

Comments Page 16 of 25
1 15 16 17 25

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *