As you can see in the post below this one, the Courier-Mail yesterday had a YouGov Galaxy state poll for Queensland that found both major parties stranded in the mid-thirties on the primary vote. State results from this series are usually followed a day or two later by federal ones, but no sign of that to this point. If it’s Queensland state politics reading you’re after, I can offer my guide to the Currumbin by-election, to be held on March 29. Other than that, there’s the following news on how various parliamentary vacancies around the place will be or might be filled:
• Noel Towell of The Age reports two former state MPs who fell victim to the Greens’ weak showing at the November 2018 state election are “potentially strong contenders” to take Richard Di Natale’s Senate seat when he leaves parliament, which will be determined by a vote of party members. These are Lidia Thorpe, who won the Northcote by-election from Labor in June 2018, and Huong Truong, who filled Colleen Hartland’s vacancy in the Western Metropolitan upper house seat in February 2018. The party’s four current state MPs have all ruled themselves out. Others said to be potential starters include Brian Walters, a barrister and former Liberty Victoria president, and Dinesh Mathew, a television actor who ran in the state seat of Caulfield in 2018.
• Former Tasmanian Premier Will Hodgman’s seat in parliament will be filled by Nic Street, following a preference countback of the votes Hodgman received in the seat of Franklin at the March 2018 election. This essentially amounted to a race between Street and the other Liberal who nominated for the recount, Simon Duffy. Given Street was only very narrowly unsuccessful when he ran as an incumbent at the election, being squeezed out for the last of the five seats by the Greens, it was little surprise that he easily won the countback with 8219 out of 11,863 (70.5%). This is the second time Street has made it to parliament on a countback, the first being in February 2016 on the retirement of Paul Harriss.
• The Age reports Mary Wooldridge’s vacancy in the Victorian Legislative Council is likely to be filled either by Emanuele Cicchiello, former Knox mayor and deputy principal at Lighthouse Christian College, or Asher Judah, who ran unsuccessfully in Bentleigh in 2018. Party sources are quoted expressing surprise that only four people have nominated, with the only woman being Maroondah councillor Nora Lamont, reportedly a long shot. Also in the field is Maxwell Gratton, chief executive of the Melbourne Queer Film Festival.
zoomster
It was a choice between that, or someone patting a “wild wolf”. 🙁
Add NC.
I dont see the gender of the candidate being an impediment to winning those states. And I hope dem primary voters dont.
i wrote to plibersek & told her i wanted labor to have a conscience vote on this bill & tell albo , too. she’s my rep. greens are coming up strong in her seat, albo’s too. what did you do ? -a.v.
Vic:
And someone who appeals to swing voters. This is interesting and I wonder what if any impact it’ll have in NH:
Bonza
My daughter is going to hold off for a few months as there is not much stock out there at present for houses and units.
She is not buying apartment as her partner likes growing plants etc. So they need some dirt
av
Labor having a conscience vote is pointless. If anything, the Bill stands more chance if Labor votes as a bloc. It’s the Liberals you want to put pressure on. But then they’re allowed one anyway…
Victoria
Yep, that was yet another reason the election last year was distressing. I’d been looking forward to negative gearing changes, but next thing I’m at an auction for a 2-bed apt listed at 600 that went for 723. I don’t know where this will all end up.
Footage of Chinese authorities dragging people from their homes and an admission that the coronavirus is airborne:
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-is-airborne-chinese-official-confirms/news-story/201218c04deb601b1b144f4cbbc4d807
Greens have been coming up strong in Pliberseks seat since I lived there way back.
Despite the bullshit spin from the LNP being repeated in the story, the government’s majority is now clearly down to 1: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/llew-o-brien-quits-nationals-amid-simmering-tensions-of-party-s-leadership-20200210-p53z7y.html
Have none of the gov MPs enough conscience to remonstrate with cloth-eared Stuart Robert? Why are they all silent? Not even a squeak from any so-called Christians.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6620292/the-government-needs-to-make-amends-over-robdebt/?cs=14245
Sometimes with this government you cannot see the incompetence for the corruption. AEMO still does not have enough grid capacity in place to receive power from wind and solar farms approved more thna a year ago.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/economic-brink-solar-plants-curtailed-as-grid-links-stall-20200209-p53z3l.html
And the coal boosters should note the following revelation on what power source is “reliable”:
“Victoria and NSW came close to large-scale load shedding just over a week ago, when a heatwave combined with unexpected failures of units at four coal-fired power plants to erase almost all reserve capacity.”
Solar or wind with battery backup is now more reliable than old coal power plants and cheaper than new ones.
Steggall is barking up the wrong tree.
Establishing a commission/commissioner is what the Coalition does when it wants to look like it is doing something when it wants to do nothing.
It is like the Greens calling for action on climate change while they continue to emit on average a very comfortable 17 tons of CO2 a year – most of which they could eliminate by taking direct personal action.
I bet the bureaucrats are stalling, too. There is an iron lady at their head, seen in Estimates.
Bonza
By the sounds of it you are looking in the expensive suburbs. Which isn’t criticism but the way to play those markets is to try to avoid auctions.
alfred venison @ #703 Monday, February 10th, 2020 – 10:02 am
I doubt either Labor or Liberal will allow a conscience vote. The Liberals wouldn’t want it known how many of their members would vote for it, and Labor wouldn’t want it known how many of their members would vote against it.
Still, it is worth a try!
Confessions @ #687 Monday, February 10th, 2020 – 8:47 am
Yes. I’d tend to think that the misogynist cohort is a bigger challenge than the homophobic cohort.
Didn’t stop Hillary from getting 3 million more votes than Trump though, so maybe not. On the other hand, Hillary standing against a Republican nominee who was actually popular might have been a very lopsided contest. And not in Hillary’s favor, either.
Watch an auction down the road from me on the weekend, It managed to add more than an extra $200k mostly in $1k increments. The auctioneer was made to work hard for that one.
However it does highlight how impossible a situation it is for first home buyers or it shows the risk of trying to upgrade via buying and selling as the price gap between 3 or 4 bedroom places is now very unpredictable. As the amounts of money handed over get larger, the gap between the 2 gets broader and harder to plan for.
If interest rates get hiked up at any point in the future, there is even more gas now in the bubble, it will be ugly…
The Barnyard Faction is cranking up the Coal is King marketing deluge.
C’mon Liberal moderates, put down your soy latte and show us the your true colours.
And Morrison needs to brush up on the Wisdom of Solomon in his bible, to keep the team united.
Mavis
The interesting thing about that footage, and other similar footage, is the degree to which individuals will buck up against the state.
But when you see the emergency ‘wards’ with massed beds with a space of about a metre between beds…
Boerwar
“Steggall is barking up the wrong tree.”
Good to see the perfect is not the enemy of the good on this occaision. What do you think is the solution? I assume Labor has their own private member’s bill under preparation that will be offered for a conscience vote, which will propose a robust mechanism to impose targets that cannot be watered down by a desperate Morrison or Palszczuk?
a r:
I suspect candidate details and personal makeup is going to be even more in the minds of Dem voters given the critical importance voters have placed on defeating Trump.
A rule of thumb with auctions is that when you see a price range take it that the top price is the real asking price and if you can afford it simply ring the agent to offer a bit above that top price then make it known you wont be at the auction because you have something on and don’t tell the agent anything about your own financial position because you want the agent to think you are comfortable playing the market.
Socrates,
It is not unreasonable to ask to see the bill before deciding how to respond.
When the detail comes out, the ALP could request amendments strengthening the framework (if need be) and still allow a conscience vote when the time comes.
Also, I doubt Wilkie would be supporting something that is wishywashy.
ALP negativity is bad politics. Right now, Steggalls idea needs some legs and whining over unknown detail doesnt help.
Mexicanbeemer
There are barely any cheap suburbs left.
I know people moving to places like Bendigo, as they are priced right out of Melbourne.
Wasn’t Wilkie one of its authors?
Alpha zero
And I believe that agents are under quoting bigly with the excuse that they are unable to predict the current market. So they are advertising properties at least 150,000 less than what is expected to sell for.
Simon K., state greens sent labor’s verity firth packing in 2011 & have held balmain comfotably since then. re. steggall’s bill : plibersek & albo should be worried by green strength in their seats, especially if they line up labor with the reactionaries. liberal “moderns” should be worried by independents like steggall, especially if they align themselves with the reactionaries. labor & liberal ignore this bill at their peril. -a.v.
https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/the-people-power-climate-push-comes-to-parliament-20200206-p53yhk
Simon Katich @ #726 Monday, February 10th, 2020 – 7:36 am
Why should Labor allow a conscience vote?
The only issues should be;
Is it good, well drafted legislation?
Does it meet Labor’s policy agenda?
If the answers are yes to both, then Labor as a Party should support it.
Victoria
Depends how you view the market. If you take the price as a lump sum then both houses and units look expensive but if you break it down to 30 years then many units don’t look so expensive. The housing market is a different story unless you want to move to a newer area.
Will the ABC broadcast the Steggall presser? It’s being streamed on Twitter but the audio is shocking.
D&M
“It is not unreasonable to ask to see the bill before deciding how to respond.”
I agree. All the more reason to be curious how Boerwar knows its author is barking up the wrong tree already. Prescient of him.
Either way, looking forward to seeing the Labor draft bill too. This is Dreyfuss’ chance to one-up Steggall.
This hip hop ad is fantastic. It shows how important it is to vote for the other branches of Govt rather than focusing on the president.
https://mobile.twitter.com/MichaelSkolnik/status/1226620458851799040
Mexicanbeemer
I understand it needs to be looked at as a 30 year plan, but as Bonza mentioned, any changes upwards to interest rates is a financial disaster for those needing to borrow big just to get in the market.
Warragamba up 21% and counting, heaviest rain in 30 years
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/sydneys-wettest-four-days-in-30-years-boosts-water-storages/531068
I suppose it’s a question no one here can answer, but what made Albo choose Marles as Deputy?
Victoria
Absolutely history tells us how ugly it can be when the wheel turns. People might think interest rates wont or cant rise but nothing is permanent.
Pauline is feeling left out!
The Guardian blog
lizzie
says:
Monday, February 10, 2020 at 10:56 am
I suppose it’s a question no one here can answer, but what made Albo choose Marles as Deputy?
______________
Albo didn’t choose him. He became deputy because of the factional agreement.
You just answered the question.
They dont have one. They are already making sounds they are looking for bipartisan options. Here it is. If it is workable and genuine, then give it legs.
ALP allowing a conscience vote puts the pressure on the Coalition to do the same. They wont. They will look like the impotent climate deniers they are. There will be no hiding anymore. Each and every Liberal MP will be forever labelled as climate do nothings.
In an idealist world, yes, if it is good legislation, then back it as a party. In our hyperpartisan politics and media and identity voting – conscience voting seems a way out.
Tea Pain
@TeaPainUSA
·
1h
As promised, fascism came to America carryin’ a cross and wavin’ the flag.
Trump admin officials terrified their careers will be ruined by ‘vindictive’ president if they…
Calling the atmosphere at the White House Pentagon and State Department “not just chilling but frightening,” career government workers now feel they will quickly have their careers ruined by Donald…
rawstory.com
Link
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/02/trump-admin-officials-terrified-their-careers-will-be-ruined-by-vindictive-president-if-they-report-anything-unethical-report/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
lizzie @ #738 Monday, February 10th, 2020 – 10:56 am
I don’ think the leader chooses their deputy. Zoomster can confirm, but I think the deputy is elected, just like the leader. Of course, there may end up being only one candidate for each post, with the rest typically withdrawing by factional agreement. I think this happened with both Albo and Marles.
I’m glad the Warragamba is up – our unit block had to defy the restrictions and hose/wash off walkways as they were a dreadful trip hazard (greasy from soap residue and roof-slime dripping down and covered in unsweepable leaves) People started slipping yesterday … very dangerous!
Player One
Perhaps everyone else took a step backwards. Poisoned chalice and all that.
Simon Katich @ #743 Monday, February 10th, 2020 – 8:02 am
Labor baking it as a Party does the same, with the bonus that less than a handful of Government Members need to cross the floor for it to pass.
With the Coalition Members having the “freedom” to cross whenever they feel the need, those who say we need to do more will look like hypocrites if they do not.
Victoria,
I wouldn’t say under-quoting is the main issue at play. The agents made it super clear that the property was on the market as the reserve price of the advertised range plus $50k was achieved, and that the buyers were playing for the keys. The fact that the bidders added an extra $200k at that point is not the fault of under-quoting. This puts the under-quote value at about 4% of the property price – it’s about what you’d factor in. It’s probably what the house was selling for last year.
The number of bidders on the place playing the game was well up on what I have seen before. Obviously some people have either large mortgages or large amounts of cash…
lizzie @ #747 Monday, February 10th, 2020 – 11:11 am
Quite likely. Taking a leadership position after such a dismal election loss would be seen by most as simply accepting the job as a placeholder while the party gets itself sorted out. Anyone with a particularly strong leadership ambition (and Albo once admitted he doesn’t have that) would probably want to keep their powder dry.