Patriot games

Evidence a large majority opposes changing the date of Australia Day, even without the IPA’s thumb on the scales.

First up, please note that immediately below this post is a new entry on developments in Queensland, which include one and possibly two looming state by-elections. With that out of the way, a brief collection of polling and preselection news:

• In the wake of a contentious poll on the subject for the Institute of Public Affairs, The West Australian has published a WA-only survey on attitudes towards celebrating Australia Day on January 26, conducted by Perth market research firm Painted Dog Research. This found 65% support for maintaining the current date with 21% opposed, breaking down to 55-26 among those aged 18 to 39, 67-20 among those 40 to 59, and 78-14 among those 60 and over. Although substantial, the headline figure is narrower than the 71-11 margin recorded by the Dynata poll for the IPA, which primed respondents with two leading questions on being proud of Australia. This poll was conducted from 842 respondents drawn from an online panel, with no field work dates provided.

• Cory Bernardi has followed through on his announcement last year that he would resign to the Senate, which means his South Australian seat returns to a nominee of the Liberal Party, for which he won the seat from the top of the ticket at the 2016 double dissolution. The Australian ($) reports the matter will be decided on February 1, from a field including Morry Bailes, managing partner at Tindall Gask Bentley Lawyers and former president of the Law Council of Australia; state upper house MP Andrew McLachlan; and Michael van Dissel, former state party treasurer. Bailes has the support of conservatives including Mathias Cormann and South Australian federal MPs Tony Pasin and Nicolle Flint, which is presumably good to have.

• Heavy duty psephological pundit Mark the Ballot examines the deficiencies of polling before the May federal election, to the extent that the industry’s lack of transparency makes the matter knowable. The thrust of the analysis is that the pollsters’ models were “not complex enough to adequately overcome the sampling frame problems”, the latter reflecting the fact that surveying methods in the modern age cannot plausibly claim to produce genuinely random samples of the voting population. As well as the models by which the pollsters convert their data into vote shares, this lack of “complexity” may equally arise from herding, the unacknowledged use of smoothing techniques such as rolling averages, and over-use of the same respondents in online panels.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,257 comments on “Patriot games”

Comments Page 42 of 46
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  1. imacca @ #2046 Wednesday, January 29th, 2020 – 2:39 pm

    “And (as far as we know) the acceptance criteria for the new “small business” grants haven’t even been decided yet ”

    What color is your electorate coded maybe?? 🙁

    Alpha Zero @ #2047 Wednesday, January 29th, 2020 – 2:39 pm

    Player One,

    The bushfire grants will be colour coded: Blue or Red…

    Yup As the only blue electorate to turn red, I think we may have screwed our chances. My OH also reported this morning that we have just missed out on being drought declared.

    I must be imagining those dry riverbeds and dead rainforests 🙁

  3. They just move the loyal and faithful servants of the party out of the limelight and reward them for their service in the name of miscreancy on behalf of the party:

    It’s the latest wheeze in the long-running saga involving Energy Minister Angus Taylor, Sydney lord mayor Clover Moore, and the whodunit of a forged council document.

    In early December, The Australian newspaper identified the Taylor staffer who “obtained” the forged document — an official report that said the City of Sydney councillors spent nearly $16 million on travel in 2018 when the actual figure was less than $6000 — as Josh Manuatu.

    …The last we heard, the NSW Police had palmed off an investigation, requested by Labor, to the Australian Federal Police. (The AFP confirmed it was still evaluating the matter.)

    Despite this, Manuatu seems to have done well over the holiday break.

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    Documents lodged with the ACT Electoral Commission late last week show Manuatu is to be the new registered officer for the Liberal Party’s Canberra division.

    The party’s registered officer is an official position registered with the electoral commission, which has significant powers, including the authority to nominate and disendorse candidates.

    Manuatu has long been touted as the next ACT Libs director and has chaired the party’s local finance committee. Does his elevation to the position of the party’s registered officer mean he’s succeeded in taking the top job?

    Nor he or Lib HQ responded to calls.

    It’s a crucial year for the Canberra Liberals, with an election due in October and with Labor, led by Chief Minister Andrew Barr, having won five elections in a row.

    Manuatu may have learnt a thing or two in Britain, where he spent his leave with Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s election staff including fellow Australians Isaac Levido and Simon Berger.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/angus-taylor-staffer-turns-up-in-key-act-libs-position-20200129-p53vo0.html

  4. C@t

    Despondent because the wall of bullshit grows ever higher and there are still so many people who can’t see over it. Perhaps a (reliable, believable) poll would cheer me up.

  5. [‘…Morrison has distanced his office from any close involvement in the so-called sports rorts scandal that has engulfed his government for a fortnight and threatens to end the ministerial career of Agriculture Minister Bridget McKenzie.’]

    “….any close involvement” are the weasel words Morrison has chosen:

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-distances-his-office-from-sports-rorts-defends-scheme-20200129-p53vsu.html

    How long McKenzie will last is anyone’s guess, but in any event, the Senate inquiry will go ahead whether she stays or goes.

  6. lizzie
    “Perhaps a (reliable, believable) poll would cheer me up.”

    The only reliable/believable poll is on election day. The most recent one did not cheer me up. 🙁

  7. Kakaru

    You’re right there. I suppose I should be pleased that so much of the cheating and rorting is being exposed, but they will have plenty of time to do more before the next election.

  9. lizzie @ #2055 Wednesday, January 29th, 2020 – 2:57 pm

    C@t

    Despondent because the wall of bullshit grows ever higher and there are still so many people who can’t see over it. Perhaps a (reliable, believable) poll would cheer me up.

    It’s not that people can’t see it, they can. They just choose to ignore it, and all the corruption, because they’re in on the game. EG, Franking Credits and Negative Gearing.

  15. lizzie
    “I suppose I should be pleased that so much of the cheating and rorting is being exposed,”

    This sports rorts saga is the tip of the iceberg. McKenzie’s mistake is not her brazen abuse of public funds, but that she was caught.

  16. Heard the tail end of the NPC love-in today…Miracle Man knows no one can touch him.
    He’s at the top of the political food chain. He fears nobody, least of all the press and certainly not the ALP. And that’s why he wears that fucking grin all the time.

  17. In news that will come as a surprise to no one, Palestininian leaders have rejected Trump’s Israel-Palestine Peace Plan.

    Well, there goes that aid du re-election for Trump and Netanyahu.

  18. mundo @ #2067 Wednesday, January 29th, 2020 – 3:45 pm

    Heard the tail end of the NPC love-in today…Miracle Man knows no one can touch him.
    He’s at the top of the political food chain. He fears nobody, least of all the press and certainly not the ALP. And that’s why he wears that fucking grin all the time.

    mundo would know a shit-eating grin when he sees one. 😐

  20. Still not sure how this could be (from Nine news):

    [In the safe Nationals seat of Gippsland, a roller derby club was ranked 98 out of 100, …]

  21. Kakuru says: Wednesday, January 29, 2020 at 3:43 pm

    lizzie
    “I suppose I should be pleased that so much of the cheating and rorting is being exposed,”

    This sports rorts saga is the tip of the iceberg. McKenzie’s mistake is not her brazen abuse of public funds, but that she was caught.

    ***********************************************************

    In Rick Wilson lingo – a fecal iceberg

    McKenzie probably could legitimately use the ‘orders is orders’ defence in an effort to drag those above into the mess – but if anyone goes down it will be gun toting Calamity Jane Bridget all by herself – the LNP men know to sacrifice the female members with little compunction to save their own arses …..

  22. KayJay
    Hmmm.
    Old dog still has diarrhoea, Poodle has been bathed and clipped and is looking smug, Cavalier has eaten the end off my mobile stylus. It’s all go here!

  23. Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
    12m12 minutes ago
    No room to move there if evidence emerges of greater involvement…

    :large

  24. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, January 29, 2020 at 3:43 pm

    Can mundo please sling his hook!?! No, actually, he IS the grub that goes on the hook.
    _______________
    Mundo is just a rational person whose hostility to the ALP has increased since coming on PB and interacting with Labor members. It’s a natural response to fanaticism.

  29. lizzie
    Wednesday, January 29th, 2020 – 3:55 pm
    Comment #2072

    Sounds as though there’s not much time for feeling down.

    I take it as read that the Cavalier was doing the chewing the pencil thing prior to texting a friend.

    Back to the tennis. 🎾

  30. PhoenixRed
    “McKenzie probably could legitimately use the ‘orders is orders’ defence”

    We’ll see if she pleads the Nuremberg defense. Was the PM involved? PVO is dropping a few ominous hints, with all the subtlety of a falling anvil.

  32. The Orroral Valley fire now about 16kmx10km; there is thick smoke in north Canberra; the sun is a red disk; very fine ash is floating around.
    #WeatheronPB

  33. Ian Mannix
    @sedvitae
    ·
    35s
    Fairfax, ABC, Ch 7,9,10…Macquarie Radio, AAP, see bullshit story in News limited rags, editors order reporters to get an angle on that. Sees any number of strong item in independent media, ignore. Why is that?any research? Anyway, they fail their audience. Thank God for twitter

  34. The next penny to drop…

    Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
    3m3 minutes ago
    Tonight on @theprojecttv we have a leaked email from Sport Australia to Bridget McKenzie’s Chief of Staff when she was sports minister. It warns of the risks in ignoring Sport Australia’s recommendations. #auspol

  35. lizzie

    Perhaps a (reliable, believable) poll would cheer me up.”
    ——————-
    Well a UK Yougov poll just in, showed 71% of Scots surveyed opposed the Brexit from Europe and only 26% supported it.

    But they have no say at all, at all!

    I hope that cheers you up. 🙂

  36. Paddy Manning is not buying what Scott Morrison was selling today at the NPC:

    Shameless
    Scott Morrison defends the indefensible

    There was no contrition or reflection in Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s set-piece year-opener at the National Press Club today – on his holidays or the bushfire crisis or sports rorts or anything – so how can there possibly be a reboot of his government’s political fortunes?

    Instead, Morrison delivered a well-worn defence of his government’s record on economic management and climate change, and dodged hard questions about the role of his own office in administering the scandalous Community Sport Infrastructure Grants Program, and even on the principle of whether a government should distribute public funds for personal political gain. Morrison’s answer on that last point was nonsense – “Do I believe the sun should come up tomorrow? Yes I do, and it will!” – and he slipped in a nasty dig at the public service, pretending that it’s only politicians who are accountable to their communities.

    So Australia starts 2020 exactly as it ended 2019, in all kinds of trouble with a prime minister in denial.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2020/29/2020/1580272995/shameless

  37. Afternoon all. I managed to miss the PM’s address to the Press club. Turned out none of it was his fault!

    And now Morrison wants to ask for extra emergency powers? Of course! When somebody fails to use the powers they already have, you give them more. Genius.

    Is he seriously trying to imply that the government response to the bushfires failed because of lack of power? What power does he seek? The ability to declare a disaster while on holiday in Hawaii?
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-wants-power-to-declare-national-emergencies-in-disasters-20200128-p53vj1.html

    Scomo has no shame.

  38. Jesus wept!

    68th
    Australia’s latest ranking for broadband speeds out of 177 nations surveyed by Ookla, down three spots, making it the fourth slowest in the OECD.

  39. nath:

    [‘Mundo is just a rational person…’]

    He may be rational but his posts are very predictable. He needs to spice them up a bit. Can you let him know(?).

  44. Cat
    “68th
    Australia’s latest ranking for broadband speeds out of 177 nations surveyed by Ookla, down three spots, making it the fourth slowest in the OECD.”

    At least we saved years and billions with the FTTN solut…. no wait! Doh, my poor wasted taxes 🙁

    At this rate we should resign from the OECD (OECXIT?) and apply to join the association of Small Island Developing States (SIDS). I doubt we would qualify to join ASEAN any more.

  46. Catherine Perry.
    @CatPurry9
    ·
    25m
    Dutton’s department has spent $5.7m for charter flights, transferring immigration detainees back and forth. $111m on lawyers, ffs. It seems like this gov does whatever it can to throw money at mates. Forensic audit is needed. #auspol

  47. Can somebody more knowledgeable in medicine than me please explain why it is OK to let kids go straight back to school within two weeks of returning from China, even though other Australians being evacuated now must be quarantined on Christmas Island? Are kids less likely to spread a virus?
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2020/01/29/australia-wuhan-evacuation/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PM%20Extra%20-%2020200129

    Is this based on medical advice? Or does Scotty from Marketing not want to tell thousands of parents they have to look after their little darlings for another two weeks now that school has returned?

  49. I fear Bridget will still enjoy a comfortable and far too well paid career on the AAT or some other similar body, and at taxpayers expense.

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