BludgerTrack leadership trends

A small measure of historical perspective for this week’s leadership polling, on which Scott Morrison lost his lead as preferred prime minister from both Newspoll and Essential Research.

It’s not exactly news that I’ve got BludgerTrack going to the extent of running leadership trends, which I launched about a month ago, but under the circumstances (and for the want of much else to blog about, which I’ll get to shortly) I thought it worth drawing attention to again. Newspoll and Essential Research both provided new sets of numbers this week, and while some have questioned the value of polling in high summer while holidays are being had and fires are being fought, they were interesting in their consistency: Newspoll recorded a 19% drop in Scott Morrison’s net approval while Essential had it at 14%, and both found Anthony Albanese opening slight leads on preferred prime minister.

All of this comes through loud and clear in the trends you can see on the sidebar (or in closer detail at the link below). Morrison’s post-election bounce was already coming off before the fires, but the trend has now become a freefall he must hope will reverse in fairly short order. By my reckoning, out of 673 preferred prime minister results published by Newspoll as far back as 1987, the incumbent has led in 519 (77.2%) and the Opposition Leader in 140 (20.8%), with thirteen (1.9%) being tied. However, this hasn’t offered much of a guide for the leaders’ future prospects. Malcolm Turnbull had an unblemished record, as did Kevin Rudd in his first tenure (Tony Abbott took the lead in the first two polls before the 2013 election), while John Howard trailed in early 2001 and for much of the second half of his first term, as did Paul Keating more often than not before the 1993 election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,599 comments on “BludgerTrack leadership trends”

Comments Page 48 of 52
1 … 47 48 49 … 52

  2. Internet attacks #MidnightMitch for Republican impeachment sham: ‘A massive middle finger to every American’

    Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) decided the night before the impeachment trial that both sides would do their opening statements in two days each over 24 hours each. That means each day the opening statements will go from 1:00 p.m. EST until 1:00 a.m. EST the following day.

    If the members take any breaks for lunch, dinner or anything else, it means the proceedings will go well into the early morning hours.

    Some responses :

    Midnight Mitch said he was going to deliver a rigged trial. He’s rigging it to a farce.

    Trying to extract personal, political gain against a political opponent
    by holding back military aid from an ally country is flat out wrong.

    Democracy dies in darkness

    .@senatemajldr this is NOT OK. The American people deserve to hear 1) witnesses & see 2) documents & to not have to hear the trial at MIDNIGHT

    #MidnightMitch@realDonaldTrump
    The general public of the United States of America should have the right to hear any and all evidence and see any and all documents to make an honest and fair decision regarding the continuance or the removal of our President.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/01/internet-attacks-midnightmitch-for-republican-impeachment-sham-a-massive-middle-finger-to-every-american/

  3. The SportsRortsGate is the gift that keeps on giving…

    “The Coalition’s controversial sports grants scheme awarded $500,000 to an upmarket, Liberal-linked Perth tennis club boasting “million dollar views”, and $190,000 to a golf club in the Adelaide Hills that wanted to upgrade its foyer to attract more wedding bookings.

    The grants scheme also gave $50,000 for solar panels to the exclusive Royal Adelaide Golf Club, one of Australia’s leading courses and a venue that recorded $5.3m revenue last year.

    The fresh revelations come as the prime minister, Scott Morrison, continues to defend the program, backing the handling of the $100m community sport infrastructure program by the Nationals’ deputy leader, Bridget McKenzie, who was sports minister at the time.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/21/upmarket-tennis-and-golf-clubs-among-recipients-of-major-sports-grants?CMP=share_btn_tw

  4. My son also fancies the Trivago girl.

    Apparently they dropped her and started doing other ads and so many people complained they brought her back!

  5. “Emissions now are 50 million tonnes lower than they were under the previous Labor Government.

    Only BECAUSE of the Labor Government system put in place and then dismantled by the Coalition after 2013. 😡

  8. steve davis says:
    Tuesday, January 21, 2020 at 1:42 pm

    Fifty-six per cent of the surveyed global population said capitalism in its current form does more harm than good in the world.

    So why keep voting for extreme capitalist parties
    ——————————–
    I think its because the left tends to misunderstand what those numbers are saying. They seem to see it as a green light to increase taxes and spending when for many it Is about a sense that the state and system plays favorites which to some extent it does.

  9. There are parallels between the Trump situation and the rorting of sportsgrants.

    Using the money and power of the govt to attempt to gain electoral advantage.

    Unfortunately we don’t have impeachment as a vehicle for exposure … just the media … which we have seen works when it a Labor member is found to be doing the wrong thing (Kelly, Dastyari etc) but if its a Lib? (Straight into ‘nothing to see here from the Murdochracy and those who are afraid of the murdochracy’s power)

  10. Rakali @ #2341 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 2:02 pm

    a r

    Good question; can Boomers stop trying to screw over Millennials by voting conservative? Signs point to no.
    —————

    Millenials, Boomers, etc exist only in your mind!

    They are as real as Librans, Geminis,…. i.e. not real at all. Indeed they are just more expansive “star signs”.

    They are just another way of identifying groups as “others” so you can hate them.

    Well, I don’t know about Millennials, Gen X’ers, Gen Y’s etc. These do seem to be fairly arbitrary divisions.

    But Boomers definitely exist. You can see the demographic bulge as it flows through the decades, distorting everything in its path. This bulge has been identified and studied in various countries.

    And you cannot and should not ignore their effects. We won’t really be free of the pernicious effects of the Boomers** for another 30 or 40 years.

    ** I don’t mean the Boomers are individually pernicious – they are not. But as a group they certainly are. They can’t help it – politicians bend over backwards to cater to Boomers, simply because of the sheer number of readily puchasable votes they represent.

  11. ‘lizzie says:
    Tuesday, January 21, 2020 at 2:15 pm

    Energy Minister Angus Taylor says he will “not put someone’s job at risk” to pursue an “overly aggressive” emissions reduction target.’

    His own job. His mates would top him.

  13. lizzie
    Further to that, the Federal and State and Territory Liberals and Nationals are now conducting their emissions and energy policy ‘debates’ hidden in full sight.

  14. Player One @ #2364 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 2:24 pm

    Rakali @ #2341 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 2:02 pm

    a r

    Good question; can Boomers stop trying to screw over Millennials by voting conservative? Signs point to no.
    —————

    Millenials, Boomers, etc exist only in your mind!

    They are as real as Librans, Geminis,…. i.e. not real at all. Indeed they are just more expansive “star signs”.

    They are just another way of identifying groups as “others” so you can hate them.

    Well, I don’t know about Millennials, Gen X’ers, Gen Y’s etc. These do seem to be fairly arbitrary divisions.

    But Boomers definitely exist. You can see the demographic bulge as it flows through the decades, distorting everything in its path. This bulge has been identified and studied in various countries.

    And you cannot and should not ignore their effects. We won’t really be free of the pernicious effects of the Boomers** for another 30 or 40 years.

    ** I don’t mean the Boomers are individually pernicious – they are not. But as a group they certainly are. They can’t help it – politicians bend over backwards to cater to Boomers, simply because of the sheer number of readily puchasable votes they represent.

    Yes the boomers definitely have an ‘entitled’ thing going on thanks to JWH.

    I deal with them everyday and the selfishness at the expense of the next generation is clear to see.

    Why is it so ? …just another fascinating example of human behaviour that makes no sense.

  15. Steve Davis:

    Fifty-six per cent of the surveyed global population said capitalism in its current form does more harm than good in the world.

    So why keep voting for extreme capitalist parties.

    Mathematically, it’s quite possible that 56% bad is the least worst option, which (if true) would explain it.

  19. Scott Morrison once again peddling the Big Lie – that we have to choose between taking action on the climate crisis and creating jobs – on behalf of his wealthy fossil fuel donors. https://t.co/VzW69pPV4X— Richard Di Natale (@RichardDiNatale) January 21, 2020

    He knows the truth that the transition to a renewable economy will create hundreds of thousands of jobs and billions of dollars in new investments. But he‘s beholden to his big donors who will lose their license to print money from polluting our precious environment.— Richard Di Natale (@RichardDiNatale) January 21, 2020

    We need to get dirty money out of our politics so we can get dirty, polluting fossil fuels out of our environment.— Richard Di Natale (@RichardDiNatale) January 21, 2020

    He is correct of course.

  21. The men of Australia rejoiced last night at the return of the Trivago girl.

    It has been a stressful few weeks without her presence. We have had to endure a bland run-of-the-mill, painting by numbers brand spot that featured what looked like stock footage of people on holiday in its place.

    Thankfully the Trivago girl, played by Gabrielle Miller, has returned to her rightful place and this was met with exuberant glee.

    …Many social commentators see this as a win for feminism as the Trivago girl’s cocksure, take no prisoners, shut up and listen commanding demeanour is without peer.

    https://surryhillstimes.com/trivagogirl/

    😀

  25. Premiums are going to skyrocket, thats if they insure people at all.

    I predicted a couple of months ago that premiums would rise, leading to an economy-wide financial crisis.

    This would force the government to offer insurance at lower than market rates, issued out of a government insurance corporation; perhaps loans also, from a government bank.

    What the government is doing now – grants and loans to businesses, homeowners, volunteers; even providing free ADF transport services – is effectively a government insurance scheme, albeit ad hoc.

    As disasters really DO become “the new normal”, growing government re-participation in insurance can only become routine.

  27. Can you imagine Smokocchio as the Trivago Boy.?

    Come to Australia.Its burnt to the ground.Dont it let it stop you. Its still great.Have a holiday amongst the ashes,with some ice and dust for seconds.

  28. Hear! Hear!

    Joe Biden’s campaign issued a memo to media outlets on Monday warning them against spreading “false accusations” driven by President Donald Trump and Republicans against the former vice president.

    The memo, released a day before the start of Trump’s Senate impeachment trial, says there is “no evidence” for disproven claims pushed by the president that Biden sidelined a Ukrainian prosecutor who was investigating an energy company that his son, Hunter, held a high-paid position with.

    Trump pushed a “a malicious and conclusively debunked conspiracy theory” about Biden, deputy campaign manager Kate Bedingfield and senior campaign adviser Tony Blinken wrote. “Not only is there no evidence for the GOP’s malicious attacks on the Vice President, those attacks have been actively debunked.”

    The memo represents an especially strong rebuke of the GOP-backed conspiracy theories, which media “must state clearly and unambiguously that they have been discredited and debunked by authoritative sources,” Bedingfield and Blinken said.

    “To fail to make clear that the conspiracy theory and false accusations about Joe Biden have been comprehensively disproven, to artificially prop-up these egregious lies based on the ‘principle’ that if partisans make accusations, they have to be treated as legitimate regardless of the facts, is to make you an enabler of misinformation,” the memo warned reporters and media outlets.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/20/biden-memo-trump-misinformation-101207

    Reporting in Australia should be done this way as well.

  30. jenauthor says: Tuesday, January 21, 2020 at 2:23 pm

    There are parallels between the Trump situation and the rorting of sportsgrants.

    Using the money and power of the govt to attempt to gain electoral advantage.

    ***********************************************************

    Totally agree with you there Jen – both parties may well admit guilt and say sometimes mistakes are made

    …….. but “so what” ????

    ________________________________________________

    The best arguments Republicans can come up with on both articles of impeachment is that Trump is guilty

    Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) made a similar argument on ABC, saying that Trump’s actions are merely accidents.

    “I didn’t say it was okay, I said people make them. People do things. Things happen,” he said.

    “Well this is the President of the United States,” said host George Stephanopoulos.

    “Well still, the president of the United States is human and he is going to make mistakes of judgment,” the senator replied.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/01/the-best-arguments-republicans-can-come-up-with-on-both-articles-of-impeachment-is-that-trump-is-guilty/

  31. ‘Bushfire Bill says:
    Tuesday, January 21, 2020 at 2:42 pm

    Premiums are going to skyrocket, thats if they insure people at all.

    I predicted a couple of months ago that premiums would rise, leading to an economy-wide financial crisis.’

    I predicted the first bit last century. It has been a while coming. The creep has been, on a global scale, incremental rather than dramatic. I am not sure it will lead to an economy-wide financial crisis. It might destroy the insurance industry, but that is a different thing.

    Where governments virtually self-insure an aspect of the economy, for example in no fault claims, things seem to hum along quite well without the traditional overlays of the legal and financial industries clipping the coupon on the way in and on the way out.

  33. BW wrote:

    I am not sure it will lead to an economy-wide financial crisis. It might destroy the insurance industry, but that is a different thing.

    No insurance industry, no industry… unless government steps in. I doubt whether the insurance industry, in some form or another, can be allowed to shut down.

  34. steve davis:

    [‘Its the arsonists wot done it!! 29,000 claims and rising. Another cost of doing nothing on CC’]

    He may’ve got away with blaming the fires on arsonists, but I think even for him, blaming them for the hailstones is surely a bridge too far. I relation to Morrison I think the word “schadenfreude” is a good fit.

  35. Boerwar says: Tuesday, January 21, 2020 at 2:48 pm

    phR
    The GOP game plan seems to be to admit the facts but to completely obliterate how serious the behaviours are.

    *******************************************************

    Seems a far cry from that Superman catch-phrase :

    Truth, Justice, and the American Way

  36. There is a need for some kind of insurance system, the problem is when the system plays hardball with claims and while there should be a review process but its currently long winded and picky.

  37. For those calling the sports grants rorting.

    Rorting = Corruption and needs to be called that to emphasise the criminal aspect of the allegations.

  39. The ACT ESA advises a grass fire has started in a rural area a few km west of the Canberra suburb of Denman Prospect. This area is (I think) fairly accessible so it was probably started by human action.

    Let’s hope that some moron hasn’t been listening to Morrison or Murdoch claiming that the bushfires were started by arsonists and decided to be a copycat.

  40. I’m quite disappointed that Bucephalus has not responded to my suggestions (twice) re (state based) National Guard cf. Reserve, something on which he is presumably informed. Note that I do not se this as an invitation for general abuse to be directed towards him.

  41. @Cat according to BW’s link the marketing guru’s 50M is mostly noise in the data produced by the millennium drought causing a massive emissions spike at the start of Labor’s terms.

    If the drought breaks and the fires end, and the floods return then next financial year is going to be a vast improvement – if we continue to use these ‘improved’ accounting measures.

  42. If the old men of Australia, (>50 yrs) voted like the rest of the population, the LNP would seemingly be long gone. One need just look at some of the predominant PB crowd to get an idea of how regressive and idiotic ideas appear to be repeated across certain demographics these days.

    There is a growing divide between the boomers and other generations and frankly it seems the boomers deserve all the critique they’re getting considering the circumstances, but many couldn’t care because you know, they won’t be here to enjoy the spoils. There’s the added issue for the LNP of gender, with many women abandoning them at the last election.

    It really seems it is the grumpy and regressive or repressive old men of Oz that have bought us all the idiocy and uselessness of the current govt. Seems that the same mostly old men are trying to justify and apologize for it as well now.

    From the Aust Election Study recently (p 18)
    https://australianelectionstudy.org/

    “These results do suggest a growing generational divide. Over the past two elections those under 35 have become much less likely to vote for the Liberal Party, and much more likely to vote for the Greens. The 2019 election exhibited the lowest Liberal party vote on record for this age group (at 23%), and the highest on record for the Greens (28%). The Labor vote within this age group has
    gradually declined over the past few decades, alongside the rise in the Greens vote.

    While young voters are moving further to the left, older voters are moving to the right. Among those 55 and over, 18% more voted Liberal than Labor in the 2019 election, which is the greatest Liberal lead among this age group since the AES began in 1987. Overall the evidence from the Australian Election Study is consistent with a growing generational divide in the voting behavior of younger and older Australians.”

  44. Quoll
    I don’t think its young people shifting to the left but more a case of the Liberals shifting to the reactionary right which then gives the impression that anyone who disagrees with them is left lending.

    When i was at uni, the thing that i noticed was how quickly students turned off whenever the lecturer mentioned politics.

  45. Boerwar @ #2387 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 2:48 pm

    phR
    The GOP game plan seems to be to admit the facts but to completely obliterate how serious the behaviours are.

    Yep. Trying to use the American Treasury to withold a payment that could seriously damage a foreign country at war. All so you could sow a false narrative about your prospective political opponent? No biggie.

    Get a blow job by an Intern in the Oval Office? Impeach the President yesterday!

  46. If the old men of Australia, (>50 yrs) voted like the rest of the population, the LNP would seemingly be long gone. One need just look at some of the predominant PB crowd to get an idea of how regressive and idiotic ideas appear to be repeated across certain demographics these days.

    What a fucking moronic comment.

    Pick a demographic that you’re not a part of, and blame them.

    If the millennials had bothered to get off their smug arses and stopped sniggering long enough to go out and vote, instead of slagging everybody else off because of their age, their sexuality or their gender, then maybe THAT might have made a difference as well.

    See? This blanket condemnation lurk is easy!

  47. Player One says: Tuesday, January 21, 2020 at 3:08 pm

    Americans are just batshit crazy …

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-21/virginia-gun-rally-shows-what-happens-when-us-tries-to-pass-laws/11879410

    ************************************************************

    This is Brandon – one of the Virginia GI Joes :

    The gun he is seen with is a Barrett .50 cal anti-material rifle. The round (depending on load) can penetrate ¾” of steel armor from almost a mile away.

    It’s preposterous that civilians are allowed to own them.

  49. phoenixRED @ #2402 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 3:15 pm

    Player One says: Tuesday, January 21, 2020 at 3:08 pm

    Americans are just batshit crazy …

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-21/virginia-gun-rally-shows-what-happens-when-us-tries-to-pass-laws/11879410

    ************************************************************

    This is Brandon – one of the Virginia GI Joes :

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    The gun he is seen with is a Barrett .50 cal anti-material rifle. The round (depending on load) can penetrate ¾” of steel armor from almost a mile away.

    It’s preposterous that civilians are allowed to own them.

    And Brandon looks like he is singularly unable to pass the Fitness test for the real Army.

  50. Bushfire Bill @ #2401 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 3:14 pm

    If the old men of Australia, (>50 yrs) voted like the rest of the population, the LNP would seemingly be long gone. One need just look at some of the predominant PB crowd to get an idea of how regressive and idiotic ideas appear to be repeated across certain demographics these days.

    What a fucking moronic comment.

    Pick a demographic that you’re not a part of, and blame them.

    If the millennials had bothered to get off their smug arses and stopped sniggering long enough to go out and vote, instead of slagging everybody else off because of their age, their sexuality or their gender, then maybe THAT might have made a difference as well.

    See? This blanket condemnation lurk is easy!

    OK Boomer! 🙂

Comments Page 48 of 52
1 … 47 48 49 … 52

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *